"Wins Produced" is a stat that tries to measure the contributions each player makes towards the number of wins a team makes. Although I think there are some problems with using it to allocate credit for winning to individual players (the main thing is that it gives rebounders a lot of credit, and can't measure individual defense) one thing it does extremely well is predict how many wins a team as a whole will get in a year. So, for example, last year if you add up the "Wins produced" by all the raptors players, it comes out to 36.5 or so, which is pretty darn close to 40. And this is typical.

So one way of predicting how many wins the Raptors will get is to figure out how many wins their players will produce, and add those up.

So lets do that. For this we have to:

1. subtract the players who left.

2. Reallocate their minutes to other players

3. Figure out if there are any likely changes to the productivity of players

4. Do a bit of math

So, 1:

Bosh produced 14 wins and played 2526 minutes.

Turkoglu produced 4.2 wins and played 2272 minutes

Wright produced 0 wins and played 1392 minutes

Bellinelli produced 0.6 wins and played 1121 minutes.

So 36.35 wins - 18.8 wins gives us: 17.55 wins

Those are the major subtractions. This leaves

2526 extra minutes for bigs and

4785 extra minutes for wings

2. obviously we can't predict injuries, but here goes;

Johnson +726 big minutes (bringing him up to 26.5 minutes a night)

Davis 1000 big minutes (12 minutes/night)

Kleiza 2200 minutes (200 as a big)

Barbosa 2000 minutes (24 minutes/night)

DeRozan +400 minutes (2064 total, about the same as Barbosa)

Weems +385 minutes (1718 total, 20 minutes/night)

Evans +500 big minutes (811 total, about 10 minutes/night)

Obviously there are a lot of guesses there, but bear with me for a moment.

3. What productivity changes should we assume?

I will assume that Bargnani, Johnson, Calderon, Jack, Evans, and Weems will be equally productive this year as last year.

Then I will make two sets of assumptions: one pessimistic, one optimistic.

Pessimistic: Kleiza's WP/48 (that is, how many wins he produces per 48 minutes) is equal to what it was in Denver

Barbosa's productivity is about his career average (I assume .08)

Davis's productivity is .05 (well below average)

DeRozan's productivity is the same as Weems was last year (it seems almost certain he will improve, since rookies almost always do)

Optimistic: Kleiza's rebounding and offensive efficiency will be closer to what we saw in turkey and the Euroleague

Barbosa's productivity will be similar to what we see in his good years in Phoenix (.12)

Davis's productivity is average for his position (not unlikely if he rebounds well)

DeRozan's productivity is average for his position.

4.

Pessimistic:

Johnson 8.85 extra games worth of minutes x .168 wins/game = +1.5 wins

Kleiza 26.8 games x .096 wins/game = 2.5 wins

Barbosa 24.4 games x .08 wins/game = 2 wins

Davis 12.2 games x .05 wins/game = 0.5 wins

DeRozan 25.2 games x .075 wins/game = 2 wins (this has to be added because last year he had no wins due to lower productivity, we are assuming)

Weems 4.7 games x .075 wins game = 0.5 wins (rounded up from .3)

Evans 6 games x .116 wins/game = 0.5 (rounded down from .7)

That adds up to 9.5 wins, which gives us 27 wins on the season.

Optimistic

Johnson: same +1.5 wins

Weems and Evans same, +1 win total

Kleiza: .15 wins/game = 4 wins

Barbosa .12 wins/game = 3 wins

DeRozan .1 win/game = 2.5 wins

Davis .1 win/game = 1 win

That adds up to 12.5 wins, which gives us 30 wins on the season. Not a big difference, eh?

So what's the point of all this math?

I think it tells us that we are about a 30 win team if people play about as well as they have in the past, even if DeRozan picks up his play a fair amount. Basically, for us to make the playoffs, something unexpected will have to happen.

In order for us to do better, someone playing a lot of minutes will have to pick up their game. I think this is distinctly possible, but not something we can count on. The major possibility is Bargnani. I don't want to say it's a straight causal relation, but if he starts producing at a less awful rate, that could impact big in the win column.

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So one way of predicting how many wins the Raptors will get is to figure out how many wins their players will produce, and add those up.

So lets do that. For this we have to:

1. subtract the players who left.

2. Reallocate their minutes to other players

3. Figure out if there are any likely changes to the productivity of players

4. Do a bit of math

So, 1:

Bosh produced 14 wins and played 2526 minutes.

Turkoglu produced 4.2 wins and played 2272 minutes

Wright produced 0 wins and played 1392 minutes

Bellinelli produced 0.6 wins and played 1121 minutes.

So 36.35 wins - 18.8 wins gives us: 17.55 wins

Those are the major subtractions. This leaves

2526 extra minutes for bigs and

4785 extra minutes for wings

2. obviously we can't predict injuries, but here goes;

Johnson +726 big minutes (bringing him up to 26.5 minutes a night)

Davis 1000 big minutes (12 minutes/night)

Kleiza 2200 minutes (200 as a big)

Barbosa 2000 minutes (24 minutes/night)

DeRozan +400 minutes (2064 total, about the same as Barbosa)

Weems +385 minutes (1718 total, 20 minutes/night)

Evans +500 big minutes (811 total, about 10 minutes/night)

Obviously there are a lot of guesses there, but bear with me for a moment.

3. What productivity changes should we assume?

I will assume that Bargnani, Johnson, Calderon, Jack, Evans, and Weems will be equally productive this year as last year.

Then I will make two sets of assumptions: one pessimistic, one optimistic.

Pessimistic: Kleiza's WP/48 (that is, how many wins he produces per 48 minutes) is equal to what it was in Denver

Barbosa's productivity is about his career average (I assume .08)

Davis's productivity is .05 (well below average)

DeRozan's productivity is the same as Weems was last year (it seems almost certain he will improve, since rookies almost always do)

Optimistic: Kleiza's rebounding and offensive efficiency will be closer to what we saw in turkey and the Euroleague

Barbosa's productivity will be similar to what we see in his good years in Phoenix (.12)

Davis's productivity is average for his position (not unlikely if he rebounds well)

DeRozan's productivity is average for his position.

4.

Pessimistic:

Johnson 8.85 extra games worth of minutes x .168 wins/game = +1.5 wins

Kleiza 26.8 games x .096 wins/game = 2.5 wins

Barbosa 24.4 games x .08 wins/game = 2 wins

Davis 12.2 games x .05 wins/game = 0.5 wins

DeRozan 25.2 games x .075 wins/game = 2 wins (this has to be added because last year he had no wins due to lower productivity, we are assuming)

Weems 4.7 games x .075 wins game = 0.5 wins (rounded up from .3)

Evans 6 games x .116 wins/game = 0.5 (rounded down from .7)

That adds up to 9.5 wins, which gives us 27 wins on the season.

Optimistic

Johnson: same +1.5 wins

Weems and Evans same, +1 win total

Kleiza: .15 wins/game = 4 wins

Barbosa .12 wins/game = 3 wins

DeRozan .1 win/game = 2.5 wins

Davis .1 win/game = 1 win

That adds up to 12.5 wins, which gives us 30 wins on the season. Not a big difference, eh?

So what's the point of all this math?

I think it tells us that we are about a 30 win team if people play about as well as they have in the past, even if DeRozan picks up his play a fair amount. Basically, for us to make the playoffs, something unexpected will have to happen.

In order for us to do better, someone playing a lot of minutes will have to pick up their game. I think this is distinctly possible, but not something we can count on. The major possibility is Bargnani. I don't want to say it's a straight causal relation, but if he starts producing at a less awful rate, that could impact big in the win column.

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