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  • The Raptors Lose Even If They Win!

    "It's great that the Raptors aren't as bad as everyone figured they'd be but now they have to either make themselves that bad or get good enough to matter."

    - Tim Chrisholm


    The title is not in any way connected to the last win although they lost a few key players in the process. Chrisholm's latest article has made me think about what's been on my mind since the beginning of the season. I call it the "30-win" trap, and it happens to be the impetus for the article.

    The team has exhibited the expected "Jekyll and Hyde" syndrome but overall isn't as bad as what most people think. Come to think of it, BC isn't a bad GM in hindsight. Before the flames come out of people's nostrils, allow me to elaborate.

    BC has assembled a team that many people would think by now is achieving better than most expectations. As a matter of fact, the Roko Ukic / Carlos Delfino for Amir Johnson / Sonny Weems, Barbosa for Turkoglu & Bayless for Jack trades are some of the reasons for the unexpected play of this team.

    Certain NBA pundits predicted the Raptors to challenge the futility record. Bob McCown went as far as saying that the Raps wouldn't win 8 games! I personally thought that they're a 30-35 win team, which led me to the trap theory.

    Many teams that finish with this much wins is usually not good enough to make the play-offs (and in the odd chance that they did, they's be blown away to smithereens in the first round). Also, with 30 wins, they're not bad enough to land the top 5 in an otherwise super-thin draft either. So the dilemma begins and it begs three important factors:

    1. Is BC (in hindsight) a really good GM for assembling a team that without Bosh is achieving much better than expected? Is he steering the ship in the right direction?

    2. Is Triano a better coach than many would give him credit for (with more wins than the Clippers, New Jersey, Washington, Minnesota, Cleveland and Sacramento)? Also, the team ranks 26th in points against (a mild improvement from last year with Bosh).

    3. What to do with a roster that could potential win 25 - 30 games? Do we build to make the first round or strip further away to go the bottom (to complicate things, teams that suck all the time like the Clippers and Minnesota are not meeting success despite their access to the # 1 draft pick on almost an annual basis)?


    If you have 3 moves to make between now and the end of the season, what would you do?

  • #2
    Great thread. I've stated a few times that the Raptors are stranded in the limbo known as mediocrity.
    Not bad enough to improve through the draft, but not good enough to attract top tier talent and improve through free agency.

    I do maintain that Bryan Colangelo is a very capable GM and the Raptors would not be any better off with anyone else at the helm.

    I have been a supporter of Triano, however I have become more and more disenchanted with his style of coaching. These young guys need to shown the path to success, and I'm just not sure Triano, as good a coach as he is (and he actually is), is capable of communicating the 'winning mentality' to these young guys. They need to hear it from someone who has experienced it.

    I think the only way this team improves is through a trade, or if we turn out to be as bad as the critics thought.

    I do believe we have an abundance of young talent, cap room, and draft picks, so I think this off-season/trade deadline will really shape the next few years for us.

    Comment


    • #3
      Well, if the record counts then he's actually outcoaching Byron Scott and Flip Saunders (by this I mean reaching the young players rather than strict X's and O's).

      Comment


      • #4
        I don't think you need to break this team apart because they're doing well. These guys are very young, and if they are ahead of where they should be, then why is that a bad thing? Sure a high draft pick would be nice, but why fix what isn't even broken. Give these young guys a chance to develop into a team together.

        Comment


        • #5
          Balls of Steel wrote: View Post
          Well, if the record counts then he's actually outcoaching Byron Scott and Flip Saunders (by this I mean reaching the young players rather than strict X's and O's).
          This is absolutely true, but 'out-coaching' those teams and coaches, doesn't necessarily mean he is getting everything out of these guys that he could be. A young players ability to consistently grow is everybit on the coach as it is on the players. If they are putting in the extra time with the coaching staff, but are not showing significant improvement, then perhaps it is where the guidance is coming from, as opposed to where, or for whom, it was directed.

          Comment


          • #6
            Raps need an outright STUD at PG or Wing to ever start dreaming of a championship....they'll never sign someone like chris paul or carmelo, so they have to get it somehow through the draft

            Interestingly, they have a pretty decent front court going forward. Bargs/AJ/Davis is a pretty well-rounded group. And they still have more potential room to grow. Obviously you'd love to have a young Shaq or DH (who wouldn't?), but barring that, you cant really do much better than that group.

            If you could just hypothetically add a guy like John Wall to this team (again, who wouldn't love to have him) - I would be willing to just let the team grow with the realistic hope of them growing into an elite team. They just need to get that one crazy/sick/superstar player dammmit!

            they even have the other wing pieces to put around a stud (derozan, bayless) but not that actual guy himself.

            Comment


            • #7
              Ruuuuu wrote: View Post
              Raps need an outright STUD at PG or Wing to ever start dreaming of a championship....they'll never sign someone like chris paul or carmelo, so they have to get it somehow through the draft

              Interestingly, they have a pretty decent front court going forward. Bargs/AJ/Davis is a pretty well-rounded group. And they still have more potential room to grow. Obviously you'd love to have a young Shaq or DH (who wouldn't?), but barring that, you cant really do much better than that group.

              If you could just hypothetically add a guy like John Wall to this team (again, who wouldn't love to have him) - I would be willing to just let the team grow with the realistic hope of them growing into an elite team. They just need to get that one crazy/sick/superstar player dammmit!

              they even have the other wing pieces to put around a stud (derozan, bayless) but not that actual guy himself.
              Agreed. But a trade, with some of the pieces we have, is also a possible route to acquire said 'stud'.

              Comment


              • #8
                cant emphasize enough the need for a man in the middle.
                davis is starting to get good, but he cant really body up on the likes of bynum, gasol, dhow
                scoring/defending wing is needed too

                Comment


                • #9
                  tbihis wrote: View Post
                  cant emphasize enough the need for a man in the middle.
                  davis is starting to get good, but he cant really body up on the likes of bynum, gasol, dhow
                  scoring/defending wing is needed too
                  Yep.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    It's funny how when you take the usual defensive liability suspects out- Bargnani, Calderon, Weems, and throw guys like Wright on the floor, we win ugly, but we win

                    I'll take that any day over losing pretty.

                    With that said, here's what I would do:

                    - Trade Bargnani now that his stock is at an all time high.

                    - Acquire a hard nosed centre

                    - Acquire a dynamic small forward or shooting guard

                    lots of pieces to do this, Bargnani, Peja, TPE, Reggie...


                    This team will not achieve success until Raptors management wakes up and sees that Bargnani is NOT the way to the title

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      BC and Triano will be back for the next NBA season after this one.

                      I expect all of the current rotation players will return for that season except for one or maybe two.
                      Avatar: Riverboat Coffee House 134 Yorkville Ave. billboard of upcoming entertainers - Circa 1960s

                      Memories some so sweet, indeed

                      Larger Photo of the avatar



                      Quote from well known personality who led their high school team to a state championship.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Balls of Steel wrote: View Post
                        "It's great that the Raptors aren't as bad as everyone figured they'd be but now they have to either make themselves that bad or get good enough to matter."

                        - Tim Chrisholm


                        The title is not in any way connected to the last win although they lost a few key players in the process. Chrisholm's latest article has made me think about what's been on my mind since the beginning of the season. I call it the "30-win" trap, and it happens to be the impetus for the article.

                        The team has exhibited the expected "Jekyll and Hyde" syndrome but overall isn't as bad as what most people think. Come to think of it, BC isn't a bad GM in hindsight. Before the flames come out of people's nostrils, allow me to elaborate.

                        BC has assembled a team that many people would think by now is achieving better than most expectations. As a matter of fact, the Roko Ukic / Carlos Delfino for Amir Johnson / Sonny Weems, Barbosa for Turkoglu & Bayless for Jack trades are some of the reasons for the unexpected play of this team.

                        Certain NBA pundits predicted the Raptors to challenge the futility record. Bob McCown went as far as saying that the Raps wouldn't win 8 games! I personally thought that they're a 30-35 win team, which led me to the trap theory.

                        Many teams that finish with this much wins is usually not good enough to make the play-offs (and in the odd chance that they did, they's be blown away to smithereens in the first round). Also, with 30 wins, they're not bad enough to land the top 5 in an otherwise super-thin draft either. So the dilemma begins and it begs three important factors:

                        1. Is BC (in hindsight) a really good GM for assembling a team that without Bosh is achieving much better than expected? Is he steering the ship in the right direction?

                        2. Is Triano a better coach than many would give him credit for (with more wins than the Clippers, New Jersey, Washington, Minnesota, Cleveland and Sacramento)? Also, the team ranks 26th in points against (a mild improvement from last year with Bosh).

                        3. What to do with a roster that could potential win 25 - 30 games? Do we build to make the first round or strip further away to go the bottom (to complicate things, teams that suck all the time like the Clippers and Minnesota are not meeting success despite their access to the # 1 draft pick on almost an annual basis)?


                        If you have 3 moves to make between now and the end of the season, what would you do?
                        This really is a good thread, nice work.

                        There is no doubt Triano is a good coach. They don't let anybody work with Team USA. Also, I think he is a good teacher. Motivating the team and having them prepared night in and night out is what I would like to see. As the team grows, develops, and hopefully enjoys success, maybe JT's coaching style will evolve to reflect that. If it doesn't, then it is time to get a coach who has experienced winning.

                        The pundits are douchebags who are yes-men. One person comes up with an opinion and no one wants to go against the norm because if they are wrong, at least they are wrong with everyone.

                        1. Many disagree but whatever. I agree I am content with BC leading the team right now. The next year will be critical to the Raptors success in the near and intermediate future (1-3 years).

                        2. Triano is a better coach than many give him credit however that is not saying much - especially outside Raptors fans/media i.e. USA.

                        3. What to do with the roster? Things look pretty good right now with the exception of Calderon's contract. I harp on this all the time but I think it is important.

                        Three moves between now and end of season - I'll get back to you.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
                          Agreed. But a trade, with some of the pieces we have, is also a possible route to acquire said 'stud'.
                          Signing and trading is almost the same thing now. If they cant sign a star it basically means they cant trade for a star.

                          For example, (regardless if they have the pieces) Raps would probably never be in the melo or cp3 sweepstakes because the players would prefer to go somewhere else. For the Raps to trade for a star, you would need like an ideal situation: where literally no other big market has interest, and the player in question makes such a big stink that he has to get traded immediately, and the Raps have cap space/assests, etc....ie. basically all the stars would have to align for the Raps a huge star in a trade. In any basic "star wants out" scenario, like melo or cp3, the Raps are never in it.

                          Raps need to draft someone who is legally obligated to play for them hahah

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Even if we get a 7th or 8th pick, it's still good enough to make an impact in the draft. See Brandon Jennings, Jure Holiday, Stephen Curry etc. It comes down to your draft record, you are as likely to fuck up a 3rd pick as an 8th pick. And I can argue that you can get comparable talent at either position if you do your homework.

                            This tank theory is total bullshit, no team does that save for the last 10 games of the season. Maybe.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Current Raps roster:

                              PG: Calderon, Bayless,
                              SG: DeRozan, Barbosa, Weems
                              SF: Kleiza, Wright, Dupree
                              PF: Johnson, Davis, Dorsey, Evans
                              C: Bargnani, Alabi

                              Guys under contract next year:

                              PG: Calderon, Bayless
                              SG: DeRozan, Barbosa
                              SF: Kleiza
                              PF: Johnson, Davis
                              C: Bargnani, Alabi

                              Needs:
                              1) Wings
                              2) defensive C.
                              3) PG

                              I am starting to look at Bargnani as more of a 4. I know there have been numerous threads about "is he a PF or C" however when you look at BC trying to get Chandler, it is pretty obvious in his mind Bargnani is a PF as well. If you can sandwhich Bargnani with 2 very good defensive players at SF and C, the argument about him playing against smaller/faster 4's can be negated. On the offensive end, if smaller faster 4's are put on him he goes to the post where he can shoot over them and if true C's are on him then he goes to the outside to shoot or put it on the floor.

                              Move 1:

                              Get McGee if he is available. He is a younger Tyson Chandler in terms of basketball ability. I am really stuck on this the past couple of days but I think in a new environment, with a coaching staff dedicated to teaching and development, and next to Bargnani the potential for success is to great not to pursue. Here is a pretty unflattering write up of him on the RR equivalent for the Wizards: http://www.truthaboutit.net/2010/12/...o-grow-up.html. As an aside, whether the Wizards keep him or trade him, he needs to get away from Blatche. A front line of Bargnani, McGee, Davis, and Johnson is very promising for the next 5 years.

                              Washington is rebuilding (that is from Flip Saunders mouth after Arenas trade). After January 20, offer Peja/Evans for Lewis and in a second deal use TPE and a future 2nd round pick to take on McGee. Lewis is extremely expensive, but if Calderon was traded (see move 2) it would not be so bad.

                              Move 2:

                              Calderon/Weems/MIA 1st round for Flynn/Brewer (his minutes are decreasing of late)
                              MIN gets mentor for Rubio and a player who would fit the triangle well for Rambis.
                              TOR gets cap relief after taking on Lewis.

                              *EDIT* I should have reserved the right to change my mind.
                              http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMa...radeId=32fyup3
                              TOR keeps draft pick. NYK get what they reportedly want. MIN gets who they reportedly want. TOR gets another young PG and loses Jose's contract. (Bayless was acquired by NOH for a first round draft pick, I'm sure if needed Flynn or Bayless could be shipped if need be - talented young PG's are highly sought). MIN loses their PG's (Telfair is expiring) setting the stage for Rubio to come over with his Spanish national teammate.

                              Move 3:

                              DD/$4.4M of TPE for Mayo.
                              MEM gets financial relief.
                              TOR gets an offensive stud now that they hope DD eventually becomes.

                              DRAFT:
                              TOR Future SF. Lewis isn't getting any younger and it would be good to have them learning from. Depending on where the Raptors draft they could do T. Jones, Honeycutt, Singleton, P. Jones, Harrison, Veesley.
                              *EDIT* MIA pick best player available which is hopefully a PG or a SG. A guy like Mccamey, Singleton, or Burks who drops to bottom of the first round.

                              Next season:

                              PG: Bayless/Flynn
                              SG: Mayo/Barbosa/draft pick
                              SF: Lewis/Kleiza/draft pick
                              PF: Bargnani/Davis
                              C: McGee/Johnson/Alabi

                              Those are my thoughts. Luckily I"m not the one making the decisions!
                              Last edited by mcHAPPY; Thu Dec 30, 2010, 09:21 PM.

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