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  • #16
    Arsenalist wrote: View Post
    Even if we get a 7th or 8th pick, it's still good enough to make an impact in the draft. See Brandon Jennings, Jure Holiday, Stephen Curry etc. It comes down to your draft record, you are as likely to fuck up a 3rd pick as an 8th pick. And I can argue that you can get comparable talent at either position if you do your homework.

    This tank theory is total bullshit, no team does that save for the last 10 games of the season. Maybe.
    Fact.
    However, I think if we look at most any team that has 'rebuilt' in the last 10-15 years, the successful rebuilding projects (turned themselves into contenders) have basically gotten the FIRST pick, and never looked back. ie. Magic (twice. Shaq and DH), Cleveland (LB), Bulls (DR), San Antonio (TD. Go further back and they've done it twice as well with Robinson), Phili (AI), Nets (KM. They made it to the finals twice after drafting him).
    BUT almost just as many have not taken that proverbial 'next step' after making the first pick. ie Bucks (AB), Portland (GO), Clippers (Candyman), Washington (KB), Toronto (AB).

    Now obviously teams have been rebuilt with a pick lower No. 1 (See MJ, Kobe, Amare, Vince, Curry,) but I do think your chances of a successful rebuilding project are increased 10x if you get that No.1 pick. But I do NOT think tanking is how you get there. Historically the worst team rarely actually nets the First Pick. So I think if we just stay as bad as we know we can be, we'll be just fine.
    Last edited by Joey; Thu Dec 30, 2010, 06:27 PM.

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    • #17
      I think BC deserves credit for starting the youth movement last off season (with Bosh still in tow) and maintaining flexibility going forward. The team is young and appreciating in player asset value with 14m to spend next season and the massive TPE.

      Take away Peja, Sonny and Reggie and replace them with two unknowns for 14m and a likely top 10 draft pick. Have to imagine there will be a significant upgrade at these three roster spots in the off-season or prior to if BC can fleece a desperate team looking to clear cap space or looking to reload with a current player targeted for the off-season (ala Heat). The TPE is the x-factor...could be usless or it could help net these assets.

      Aside from Calderon and Barbosa pretty much every significant contributor on the current team should be expected to improve their individual game from now till next season. Some may be nil or marginal and some may be significant but at the very least team cohesiveness should improve as the youth develops.

      We will have a young team going forward with the potential to infuse talent over the next couple of seasons which should bode well for future long term success.

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      • #18
        Matt52 wrote: View Post
        Current Raps roster:
        Move 3:
        DD/$4.4M of TPE for Mayo.
        MEM gets financial relief.
        TOR gets an offensive stud now that they hope DD eventually becomes.
        Mayo is averaging identical PPG as Derozan is right now, but Derozan is doing it a FAR more efficient clip.
        Not sure what everyone is down on DD for...

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        • #19
          joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
          Mayo is averaging identical PPG as Derozan is right now, but Derozan is doing it a FAR more efficient clip.
          Not sure what everyone is down on DD for...
          Mayo appears to be in a big time funk this year. I can only assume a 3rd year player doesn't go from 18ppg and starting all games to coming off the bench and 13.5 without reason. He shoots 38% from 3, can create for himself and others, and is a scoring threat from anywhere on the floor. If OJ can get had for DD, I'd do it because, honestly, I don't see DD potential being that of Mayo - just my opinion and if the Raps keep DD I hope I am more than wrong.

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          • #20
            Arsenalist wrote: View Post
            Even if we get a 7th or 8th pick, it's still good enough to make an impact in the draft. See Brandon Jennings, Jure Holiday, Stephen Curry etc. It comes down to your draft record, you are as likely to fuck up a 3rd pick as an 8th pick. And I can argue that you can get comparable talent at either position if you do your homework.

            This tank theory is total bullshit, no team does that save for the last 10 games of the season. Maybe.
            You cant tell players and coaches not to play hard and try to win...THAT is what is never going to happen for all sorts of reasons

            But organizations can decide they're not going to do anything and everything to win most possible games one season. Not only is that possible, it happens all the time.

            "rebuilding", "retooling", "building through the draft" - whatever, basically means a team is not going to try and add a bunch of meddling talent or sign an aging vet. They're going to make the young kids play, hopefully its exciting and the fans dont revolt, and once they get a couple of high draft picks maybe things will be different.

            Agree the Raps dont have to finish last overall. (Thats another thing you cant really guarantee or try and shoot for). They could like finish 5th last, get a spike in the lottery to like 3rd, etc. There was a link posted (I think in one of the Tom Liston posts) that shows the chances of getting a star at each draft position...obviously it decreases as you go down IIRC after top 3 there was a noticable drop in chances to get a "star".

            And absolutely nothing beats a year when you have 1st overall pick, and there is an obvious franchise choice that year (eg. Iverson, James)...damn thats like a shot of heroin in the morning, you know what I mean?

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            • #21
              I'm hoping BC has assembled this 25-30 win team with an eye to this draft. With everyone so young, mostly cheap but all obvious role players, he needs a top 3 this year to tie it all together. He has multiple first round picks (one a likely lottery pick), the TPE and expiring contracts to whore out. Is he going to go all in for a perceived superstar draftee?

              Best case is Raps win the lotto, then use the assets to bring in a couple of veterans and have the raps off and running right away. That's the pipe dream anyway.
              LET'S GO RAP-TORS!!!!!

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              • #22
                minks77 wrote: View Post
                I'm hoping BC has assembled this 25-30 win team with an eye to this draft. With everyone so young, mostly cheap but all obvious role players, he needs a top 3 this year to tie it all together. He has multiple first round picks (one a likely lottery pick), the TPE and expiring contracts to whore out. Is he going to go all in for a perceived superstar draftee?

                Best case is Raps win the lotto, then use the assets to bring in a couple of veterans and have the raps off and running right away. That's the pipe dream anyway.
                A repeat of Chicago in 2008 getting Rose at #1 when they should have drafted 9 would be sweeet.

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                • #23
                  Any moves I would make would be centered around improving mainly the SG position. I think this position is where the "stud" or superstar player we make any moves for should play. It also solves the problem of the big contract belonging to Jose Calderon. Though it's a big contract for a point guard coming off the bench (which most agree Jose should be) it's a relatively good contract for a starting pg. If you have a star at the shooting guard spot that can create for others as well as for himself then it's a bonus to surround that player with good shooters like Calderon. Thus it would solve the need to trade JC....atleast until we're good enough to be contenders in the East. The only problem is finding a good to great SG and it might have to come from the draft.

                  The only other move I think the Raptors need to do is move Andrea. I think our bigs play well enough that he isn't needed (as long as we get that good scoring sg I was talking about). Andrea has been playing so well on the offensive end of the floor that I think he could be more of an asset to us on the trading block than anything else. Perhaps a team that is having a tough time scoring like the Bucks could use his talents in exchange for some draft picks or young player(s), expiring contracts etc..

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                  • #24
                    Arsenalist wrote: View Post
                    Even if we get a 7th or 8th pick, it's still good enough to make an impact in the draft. See Brandon Jennings, Jure Holiday, Stephen Curry etc. It comes down to your draft record, you are as likely to fuck up a 3rd pick as an 8th pick. And I can argue that you can get comparable talent at either position if you do your homework.

                    This tank theory is total bullshit, no team does that save for the last 10 games of the season. Maybe.
                    Just for some perspective, from Bill Simmons Book of Basketball:

                    With Hakeem and Jordan looming as draft prizes, both the Rockets (blew 14 of their last 17, including 9 of their last 10) and Bulls (lost 19 of their last 23, including 14 of their last 15) said, "Screw it, we'll bastardize the sport," and pulled some fishy crap: resting key guys, giving lousy guys big minutes and everything else.
                    Both Houston and Chicago eventually won Championships. I'm not condoning anything, especially in a year when there are no Hakeem or Jordan's on the horizon, but teams have certainly tanked in the past (Cleveland to get LeBron) and benefitted a great deal from it.

                    And the farther down you draft, the less likely you'll get an impact player. Hell, it's possible to find an impact player at 29 (Tony Parker), but the chances of doing it are about the same as winning the lottery (okay, maybe a bit better than that). The truth is, the best chance of finding an impact player is in the top 5 of the draft.
                    Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
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                    • #25
                      In 2006 - 2007, the 24-58 Celtics were poised to go in the draft as high as the second pick and was hoping to draft Durant that year. The Celts certainly didn't tank but was an awful rag-tag team that needed a fresh injection of new talent. Well, the ping-pong gods were'nt on their side and they slid down as low as 5th overall. After drafting Jeff Green, we all knew what happened next. I'm just saying that BC can use the new CBA landscape to find his own crop of future players to complement what we already have (in much the same way Danny Ainge swung for the fences in 2008.

                      If all is well the type of players I'm referring to besides the draft are players like Javale McGee, Jeff Green, Wesley Johnson, Jonny Flynn, etc. As for Bargs, he's the biggest trade asset the Raps have.
                      Last edited by Balls of Steel; Thu Dec 30, 2010, 08:36 PM.

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                      • #26
                        I agree that you can fuck up a pick as easily at 3 as you can at 8, but that's ignoring the relative talent levels typically available at those numbers. You're looking at guys a lot closer to can't-miss at the 3 spot than you are at the 8, which is typically athletic project players like DeRozan. Draft order also matters for trying to deal for something like a top-3 pick from a team that'd be looking at position overlap if they drafted the best available player. You're not going to jump from 8th pick to 2nd without including a lot more than you might want to give up, but Miami's 30th pick and some cash might get you from 5th to 3rd pick so you can draft the guy you really covet.

                        That aside, what the raps should really be doing right now is evaluating the talent they have. The real problem with a win-now scenario is that it means relying on what you know you can get from the more established players like Barbosa, Kleiza and Calderon and featuring them in your offense to the detriment of DeMar, Amir, Wright and Bayless. If you want to draft the best player for your team it helps to know what you've already got and which guys are really the future of your franchise, and only more playing time is going to resolve that. This goes for Jay too; coaches develop with time and experience just like players.

                        So if I'm Triano, Im letting the kids play, resting the vets and showcasing the assets. There's a ton of expendable talent, contracts and picks to work with in trying to improve the club. Personally I'd explore what I could get for Bargnani, but we know BC won't do it. At worst he should be able to snag another 2nd round pick at the deadline, maybe a contender comes looking for a piece and he pockets a useful player in return, but I can't see anything big going down without taking on a lot of contract in the process.

                        Meaning, next year's team is probably going to look a lot like this year's team, plus a few more young players. Maybe the rookie will be a star, maybe he'll be another athletic project, but it's going to be through the draft and developing what they already have that the Raps find success. Maybe down the line all the young talent gets traded for a star, but it's not worth doing if you don't already have a star of your own to put them beside. So play the kids, figure out what you've got, and go into the draft hoping to find the guy that puts the franchise back on the right track.

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                        • #27
                          Great thread with lots of really intelligent comments here. Right now, the Raptors have a lot of good 2nd tier talent with the potential for some of them (ie. DeRozan, Davis etc.) to develop into top tier talent. What they're lacking is 1-2 stud players to make them a very good team. To acquire that, they either have to draft, trade, or sign them as free agents. They currently don't have the assets to trade for an elite player. It's doubtful that they can sign one via free agency, although things could change once the new CBA is in place and if a hard cap comes into being. That leaves them with the draft to look at. The best thing that could happen to them would be to get a top 3 pick this summer. I'm hoping they do so and somehow land Kyrie Irving of Duke. He would be a perfect fit for this team as would someone like Harrison Barnes or Perry Jones. Once you have this piece, you can start to look at perhaps moving someone like Calderon for a Defensive Minded Centre. This would allow you to shift Andrea to the 4 spot where he'd be a lot more effective. After that, if you can use your trade exemption and cap room to find a good SF, this team would be all set. I also think you need to let BC continue to do what he's started here. I think in his first few years, he was hampered by the fact that he needed to build a team around Bosh in order to try to keep him. Since the summer of 2009, he's begun to build the team his way and the results are beginning to show. The next part of this season and what happens in the summer will be critical to the future of the franchise. I hope it works out for the team, the players, the organization, and the fans. There's been little to cheer for, sports wise, in TO, over the last 5-6 years. But, things go in cycles. So, I hope that 2011 marks the beginning of a good cycle for T.O. sports teams.

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