Post-Draft Reaction

[Joey]

Yikes. Tough break for the Bobkittens - and for Biyombo, who I know really wants to come over. On the flip side, I'm glad that there's the potential for Jordan to get screwed.

Indeed. Ever since his renege on the Chandler deal, I haven't looked at him the same.
However, looking at Diaws.. physique, makes me think that maybe that deal falling apart wasn't such a bad thing. haha

[Tim W.]

Maybe I've missed it but I don't see the media giving the Bobcats as much grief over Biyombo as the Raps received over JV.

Via HoopsWorld.com:

Maybe I missed the grief that the Raptors received, except from those who simply didn't like the pick (probably a lot fewer of those, now).

[MangoKid]

Yikes. Tough break for the Bobkittens - and for Biyombo, who I know really wants to come over. On the flip side, I'm glad that there's the potential for Jordan to get screwed.

[Joey]

Maybe I've missed it but I don't see the media giving the Bobcats as much grief over Biyombo as the Raps received over JV.

Via HoopsWorld.com:

If it turns out that his buyout IS in fact $3M, then you will be hearing LOTS about it.
Especially if that has him locked down until 2014. He's going to have to come up with $2.5M? Doubt it.

I guess the reason why so much was made about Jonas' buyout was because he was actually quite forthcoming with the information. Biyombo clearly was not.

[mcHAPPY]

Maybe I've missed it but I don't see the media giving the Bobcats as much grief over Biyombo as the Raps received over JV.

Via HoopsWorld.com:

The current contract of Charlotte Bobcats rookie center Bismack Biyombo has a larger buyout than originally believed, Sportando.net reported Wednesday.

According to the report, Biyombo’s contract with Fuenlabrada of the Spanish ACB has a buyout of $3 million. The club also owns 80 percent of Biyombo’s rights until June 2014, the report said.

Biyombo and his agent previously have said that the contract has a buyout of $1.4 million. NBA teams are allowed to pay up to $500,000 in buyout fees.

A native of Congo, the 6-9 Biyombo is 19 years old and was not expected to be an immediate contributor to the Bobcats. He was taken seventh overall in the 2011 draft by Sacramento and traded to Charlotte.

[Tim W.]

Wow. I know the injury was caused by some sort of malformation in his foot (an extra bone?), so I wonder if this is an indication he might struggle throughout his career with foot problems. Still, I don't see needing more time a problem right now. I would be shocked if the season started before the New Year.

The Valanciunas pick remains to look good for the Raptors.

[mcHAPPY]

Cleveland Cavaliers rookie guard Kyrie Irving is expected to need three months to completely recover from a toe injury, meaning he could be on the sidelines if the NBA season starts on time.Irving, the top pick in the 2011 draft, says the toe feels fine but is dealing with ligament damage that could become an issue if not permitted to heal.Under the current timetable, Irving likely won’t be completely healthy until mid-December.The 19-year-old may not have to worry about missing any time, with the owners and players’ union still far apart in negotiations for a new collective bargaining agreement.

http://www.hoopsworld.com/cavs-g-irv...th-toe-injury/

Nearly one year later and he is still dealing with the toe. Cleveland fans must have the cold sweats right now.

[Tim W.]

Center is one of the most difficult positions to play. I don't think two years is a fair window. I think you need to view centers like NFL wide receivers. You need to give them a good three year window at least to know where they're headed. Most are offering praise to JV, suggesting he's the best center prospect in the draft. You can at least hang your hat on the fact that the majority of people in the field like the pick. The Spurs were trying to move a cornerstone PG to grab him, that should tell you a lot right there in itself. When Bargnani was drafted the response was lukewarm at best in most circles. He doesn't play like Bargnani, he's not entering into the same situation as Bargnani and won't be treated the same way as Bargnani. We need to draw a line in the sand here, we're talking apples and oranges.

And for the record, Bargnani was not a "mistake" or a bust. I feel people saying that are being unfair and looking at this out of context. The pick made a lot of sense in 2006 given the roster and Bargnani's abilities and attributes. He's a very talented player to this day and there are few big men not named Dirk who can score the ball better than him. He and the Raptors both share a role in his failure to live up to expectations. He's a one way player due to his desire and the Raptors lack of tough love from start to present. Sam did the right thing early on, but seemed to be pressured into backing off... That was the mistake.

The selection of JV now makes a lot of sense. He's at the other end of the spectrum when it comes to priorities on the floor. JV is a red, Bargnani is a... Violet.

Ya, the misnomer that Bargnani is a bust is a little ridiculous. I'm sure guys Kwame, Olowakandi and Darko would have LOVED to have Bargnani's career so far. Hell, so would half of the league.

[Apollo]

Center is one of the most difficult positions to play. I don't think two years is a fair window. I think you need to view centers like NFL wide receivers. You need to give them a good three year window at least to know where they're headed. Most are offering praise to JV, suggesting he's the best center prospect in the draft. You can at least hang your hat on the fact that the majority of people in the field like the pick. The Spurs were trying to move a cornerstone PG to grab him, that should tell you a lot right there in itself. When Bargnani was drafted the response was lukewarm at best in most circles. He doesn't play like Bargnani, he's not entering into the same situation as Bargnani and won't be treated the same way as Bargnani. We need to draw a line in the sand here, we're talking apples and oranges.

And for the record, Bargnani was not a "mistake" or a bust. I feel people saying that are being unfair and looking at this out of context. The pick made a lot of sense in 2006 given the roster and Bargnani's abilities and attributes. He's a very talented player to this day and there are few big men not named Dirk who can score the ball better than him. He and the Raptors both share a role in his failure to live up to expectations. He's a one way player due to his desire and the Raptors lack of tough love from start to present. Sam did the right thing early on, but seemed to be pressured into backing off... That was the mistake.

The selection of JV now makes a lot of sense. He's at the other end of the spectrum when it comes to priorities on the floor. JV is a red, Bargnani is a... Violet.

[Quixotic]

Please, please, please stop using "opportunity cost" in this discussion. It's not a matter of understanding how opportunity cost works; everything stated here is mere opinion. "We're going to waste 5 years on Valanciunas before realizing he's a bust" is an opinion. "It's only going to take 2 years to realize the same about Walker" is an opinion. If I was hellbent against Walker, I could make the same argument. Here, let me try:

If Valanciunas is a bust, we'll know sometime during the second year of his contract (three seasons from now). We could tell pretty early that Bargnani would never be what people had hoped for him to be. We won't make the same mistake twice with these Euros. If Walker turns out to be a bust, we'll have invested 4-6 years on him. We'll be stuck on his NCAA credentials and all his intangibles. There's no way someone like him could possibly fail in this league. We'll look back at the Billups and the Nashes of the league. Both PGs only became what they are now in the 5th season of their careers. Nash was even a four-year college grad, yet it's apparent that Phoenix should have been more patient with him.

This is probably where I would start talking about opportunity cost, and how we'd waste less time going with Valanciunas. Except this isn't really an exercise in Economics 101, but in recognizing an opinion for what it is.

[Tim W.]

What if Andrea Bargnani starts defending and rebounding? Look, I can tell that you don't like jumping to conclusions, but if you know basketball as well as I think you do, then you know the likelihood of these guys getting much better. I could be wrong but I'm pretty sure I remember you saying Bayless is not even a starting point guard. He's tweener if I ever saw one, and not a consistent one. James Johnson is a guy whose numbers actually went down when he went from playing limited minutes to becoming a starter. On a bad team. If DeRozan is the future if this franchise at SG, then we'll need a SF that can shoot the ball outside of 8 feet from the basket. James Johnson isn't that guy, and since he's isn't exactly a lockdown defender, I think his time with us will be short (especially after we draft a SF next season).

With Bargnani, there's been literally no indication that he'll ever even be an average defender and rebounder. None. And you're not wrong about what I said about Bayless. I don't think he's anywhere close to a starting PG, at this point, but he also hasn't been given much of a chance to develop, and I've liked what I've seen so far. It doesn't mean I think he'll ever be aAll Star, but I've seen enough to know he could be a decent rotation player some day, maybe even a starter. I think it's unlikely he'll ever be a good starter in the league, but I do like the potential I've seen from him. He's got the skills and he seems to have the determination and willingness to work. Those are the key ingredients to success in the NBA.

As for James Johnson, if he can get himself a consistent jumpshot, something that can be easily attained through hard work, he can be a starter in the league. There's literally no reason he can't become a decent starter in the NBA. The only question is whether he is willing to do what it takes to get there. Like Bayless, he wasn't given much of a chance before coming to the Raptors.

Exactly. Opportunity cost. If Walker is a bust, we'll know by the end of his rookie contract. Because he's older, we won't have to wait as long to see. Very likely we'll know by the end of his 2nd year and if he's no good, you don't even need to pick up the last two optional years. If JV turns out to be a bust, we'll have invested 4-6 years on him. Centers typically take longer to develop than other positions. JV is a year out from hitting the NBA, plus he's skinny and has virtually no offensive game. Film that I've seen indicate he can block shots and rebounding but hasn't needed to use any ability in establishing position in the paint because he's just taller and longer than everyone else on the court. It won't be as easy in the NBA. If JV is a bust, we'll be halfway through his 2nd contract, likely a deal worth around $33M over 4-5 years. Are you prepared to invest the next 5-8 years on a guy who was raw to begin with in a weak draft? Opportunity cost. That's a lot of time to invest on a guy who could potentially be nothing more than a career backup C.

I think you misunderstand what it means when a player takes 5 years to develop. It doesn't mean that the player does nothing for 5 years and then in his sixth year he either is a good player or a bust. You either see development or you don't. With busts like Olowakandi, Kwame and Darko (or Patrick O'Bryant or Mouhamed Sene), there was a lack of development after a year or two that was the indication that they would never fulfill their potential. Guys like Jermaine O'Neal, Kendrick Perkins and Andrew Bynum all showed good development which gave their team a good indication that they would become good players.

No matter who you take, it's a gamble. You'll have wasted a high lottery pick. The teams that go the safest routes usually end up with mediocre teams, at best. Valanciunas MAY have been a bigger risk (although that's debatable) but he's also the bigger payoff if he succeeds. There's a reason why teams are willing to gamble far more on centers than other players. Basically, it comes down to whether you want the one cookie, or two.

[ebrian]

What if James Johnson and Bayless actually fulfill their potential? They both have the potential to be decent players.

What if Andrea Bargnani starts defending and rebounding? Look, I can tell that you don't like jumping to conclusions, but if you know basketball as well as I think you do, then you know the likelihood of these guys getting much better. I could be wrong but I'm pretty sure I remember you saying Bayless is not even a starting point guard. He's tweener if I ever saw one, and not a consistent one. James Johnson is a guy whose numbers actually went down when he went from playing limited minutes to becoming a starter. On a bad team. If DeRozan is the future if this franchise at SG, then we'll need a SF that can shoot the ball outside of 8 feet from the basket. James Johnson isn't that guy, and since he's isn't exactly a lockdown defender, I think his time with us will be short (especially after we draft a SF next season).

And what if the Raptors drafted Walker and he turned out to be bust? Valanciunas at least has the size and mobility to be a contributor even if he doesn't fulfill his potential, like Darko and Kwame). Walker, at worst, probably doesn't stick in the league for more than a few years.

Exactly. Opportunity cost. If Walker is a bust, we'll know by the end of his rookie contract. Because he's older, we won't have to wait as long to see. Very likely we'll know by the end of his 2nd year and if he's no good, you don't even need to pick up the last two optional years. If JV turns out to be a bust, we'll have invested 4-6 years on him. Centers typically take longer to develop than other positions. JV is a year out from hitting the NBA, plus he's skinny and has virtually no offensive game. Film that I've seen indicate he can block shots and rebounding but hasn't needed to use any ability in establishing position in the paint because he's just taller and longer than everyone else on the court. It won't be as easy in the NBA. If JV is a bust, we'll be halfway through his 2nd contract, likely a deal worth around $33M over 4-5 years. Are you prepared to invest the next 5-8 years on a guy who was raw to begin with in a weak draft? Opportunity cost. That's a lot of time to invest on a guy who could potentially be nothing more than a career backup C.

[Tim W.]

In 3 years if James Johnson and Jerryd Bayless are anything more than human victory cigars, we'll be in big trouble.

The hope is JV proves me wrong, but I always look at the big picture, and in the big picture I see the Raptors potentially wasting the next 5 years on a player that will likely never amount to much. Another hope is that if there's another big man available, whoever the GM is by then doesn't think we're set at the position. Missed opportunities, as well as wasted years will be key to coming out of this as unscathed as possible.

As I said, I see JV becoming an effective starter somewhere between 3-5 years. Detroit was lucky that they only stuck with Darko for 3 years.. Washington stuck with Kwame for 4... Chicago with Eddy Curry (and then New York). The problem with drafting these types of projects who have several issues to their game is people wait longer for big men to produce, thus more wasted years before realizing it's time to cut them off.

Anyway, I've said my peace. There's nothing to do but wait.

What if James Johnson and Bayless actually fulfill their potential? They both have the potential to be decent players.

And what if the Raptors drafted Walker and he turned out to be bust? Valanciunas at least has the size and mobility to be a contributor even if he doesn't fulfill his potential, like Darko and Kwame). Walker, at worst, probably doesn't stick in the league for more than a few years.

I understand you don't like the pick, but what you (and most others) don't seem to realize is that there were no safe picks. None. Besides, the teams that make the safe picks end up with the safe teams. Decent, but never good. Indiana was great at making safe picks. And it lead to mediocrity.

[ebrian]

In 3 years if James Johnson and Jerryd Bayless are anything more than human victory cigars, we'll be in big trouble.

The hope is JV proves me wrong, but I always look at the big picture, and in the big picture I see the Raptors potentially wasting the next 5 years on a player that will likely never amount to much. Another hope is that if there's another big man available, whoever the GM is by then doesn't think we're set at the position. Missed opportunities, as well as wasted years will be key to coming out of this as unscathed as possible.

As I said, I see JV becoming an effective starter somewhere between 3-5 years. Detroit was lucky that they only stuck with Darko for 3 years.. Washington stuck with Kwame for 4... Chicago with Eddy Curry (and then New York). The problem with drafting these types of projects who have several issues to their game is people wait longer for big men to produce, thus more wasted years before realizing it's time to cut them off.

Anyway, I've said my peace. There's nothing to do but wait.

[Tim W.]

So in 3 years, he'll be 22, DD and ED 24/25, Amir and JJ 27, Bayless could be 25/26, next year draft pick 22-24. If Bargnani stays he'd be 28.

It sounds to me like we'll have a young team hitting their prime together.

I will enjoy watching the team develop over those three seasons.

Take out Bargnani and add whoever they get next year, and that looks AWFULLY good to me. As long as Colangelo doesn't get impatient.