2012 Draft Thursday, June 28th: Raptors select Terence Ross

[Bouncepass]

The only way you can possibly do any draft projections ahead of the draft lottery, with any semblence of credibility, is to base it on current standings. To do otherwise (aka predict the draft lottery as well as the draft), would be foolish and illogical. In that case, you might as well just assign players to the team you want them to go to.

And for the record, his math is correct when speaking about probabilities. Although Charlotte has a 75% chance of NOT getting the #1 pick, no single team has a higher % of getting it, so probabilities would dictate them to be projected as picking in that #1 slot.... and so on. Plus, you can run the lottery as many times as you want, to see all the various outcomes and who the Raptors are projected to pick in each of them.

Well, yes and no. Actually, compared to other seeds Charlotte has the highest probably of selecting at #1, #2, #3 and #4. Toronto has a lower probability of selecting at #4 (if they stay at the 4 seed) than any of the top three teams, and has the highest probability of selecting 5th (of its choices, and compared to other teams).

The 4th seed has a slightly higher probability of selecting #5-7 than #1-4 (about 52% vs. 48%).

For the ESPN draft lottery machine, it makes sense to start with teams at their seeding and then let the probabilities determine what the possible combinations are. Otherwise, there is no logical non-statistical approach to seeding the teams based purely on standings.

[Bouncepass]

Tim said it were destined to draft Barnes lol. Which Wouldnt be the worse thing.

If the Raptors aren't in the top five picks, I expect that all the picks will look quite a bit riskier than Barnes. It would be a hard call to go with someone else. Maybe someone will like Barnes enough to trade up, but if it is a straight pick Barnes might be the guy.

[Miekenstien]

i think the raptors will take beal over t-rob. if we drop to the mid ones i would like terrance jones or barnes. or a trade down to grab marshall and miller. or if no miller and no one else had done it a fly on pj3 who i like the least of the bunch

[ceez]

we're tied for 6th worse now, meaning more than likely we'll have pick 6 or 7. i really hope BC does everything he can to move up and take MKG or Beal.

[ceez]

im feeling nauseous just thinking about it all

[saints91]

Yeah I think we will finish 5th or 6th, and possibly slide a bit. We have four games against teams under .500 (NJN, at Bucks, at Pistons, and Cleveland). I think we will add 4 or 5 more wins over the last 12 games. SAC has a tough schedule going forward and I can see either Cleveland or NJN finishing with a worse record than us.

[Chr1s1anL]

I'd rather see if we could trade down and get Marshall and Ross somehow

It's funny what six months can do. If something would of said that Barnes would be are worse case scenario ppl would be going crazy.

[Chr1s1anL]

PJ3 will rise in workouts. 6'11 dribbling through cones like a guard, make every open jumper and than throwing it down while his heads at the rim. Seriously you telling GMs wont fall in love with that?

2:13 this guy could so play the 3 at the next level

sorry just got hypnotized by the potential

[Miekenstien]

Aaron Craft early second round if he makes it to us?

[saints91]

Aaron Craft early second round if he makes it to us?

Is he declaring? I have yet to see him on a draft board, but I would love to have him on this team.

[saints91]

It's funny what six months can do. If something would of said that Barnes would be are worse case scenario ppl would be going crazy.

I would be happy take him if we slide to 6,7 or 8. I rather him over Drummond.

[Bouncepass]

PJ3 will rise in workouts. 6'11 dribbling through cones like a guard, make every open jumper and than throwing it down while his heads at the rim. Seriously you telling GMs wont fall in love with that?


sorry just got hypnotized by the potential

I agree that PJ3 is likely to rise somewhat, as long as he doesn't come across like a zombie during interviews, etc.

The same will hold true for Drummond though, and I think he will be very impressive. I still think that Colangelo will actually thing for some time if both Barnes and Drummond are on the board when the Raptors pick, and AD, MKG and BB are gone.

[Nilanka]

Yup, I'm starting to come to terms with the idea that we fall out of the top 5....meaning the last 5 months have been a complete waste of time.

[Nilanka]

He is still better than most starting SG's in the NBA. A lot of people want OJ Mayo but i think he is a downgrade from demar he has only scored 20 points 4 times this season and he isn't a great defender and he also gives up 3 inches in height.

I would take Mayo over DeRozan in a heartbeat. I wouldn't hesitate for a second.

[koncept]

Can someone with ESPN insider post the mock draft from there? They have Barnes as 8 in the top 10 as well.