2012 Draft Thursday, June 28th: Raptors select Terence Ross

[ceez]

Jesus Christ not Henson

[ceez]

I thought the same, Ceez. He provides a link to the same article from last year, and I found that even more fascinating -- tracking the relative success of his predictions, especially those that differed from the popular opinion. Not to give him tooo much credit, but he really was super hi (contra a lot of other scouts) on Leonard and Cole and low (again, contra most other scouts) on Fredette and Vesely for example. Also, he loved Valanciunas, which is nice .

But the thing that excites me the most about the Waiters projection, is that one of the self-diagnosed strengths of his PER system was that wing prospects above a certain score were, and hopefully remain, essentially bust-proof. The fact that Waiters falls in that Bust Proof range is really cool seeing as he is not viewed by most as a top 10 pick, let alone as the 4th best prospect.

Here is the list of all wings who ranked in that range over the last 10 years:
Kevin Durant 17.67
Dwyane Wade 17.05
Carmelo Anthony 16.63
Danny Granger 15.43
Rudy Gay 15.10
Luol Deng 14.46
Josh Childress 13.37
Kawhi Leonard 13.21
Mike Dunleavy 12.95
Dajuan Wagner 12.72

Not a bad list, and Waiters score is 14.12, which ranks him below the all-stars, but above the role-players like Childress and Dunleavy. If Waiters an match Luol Deng-esque production in the form of a slashing 2 guard, I will be more than pleased with this draft.

That's really interesting. I was down with Waiters before but now he's locked in at #2 on my board. Lillard is still my dude and i don't agree with what he said were his issues (age, playing in weak conference) but i won't be sad if we end up with Waiters.

[Puffer]

...If Waiters an match Luol Deng-esque production in the form of a slashing 2 guard, I will be more than pleased with this draft.

Sign me up.

[ceez]

Wroten is a guy that could easily slip into the second round that i'd love the raps to take a chance on if they don't take Lillard. On one hand he apparently is a bit of a headcase and shooting isn't his thing but his potential/size/athleticism is staggering. He'd make a really nice developmental PG.

[Chr1s1anL]

Stephen Brotherston Weekly Chat

Questions I asked

Christian
Do you think the raptors would pick Drummond if he was on the board at 8

Stephen Brotherston
On the BAP basis, they’d have to, but they’d be looking to trade him within seconds.

Christian
After a week of workouts whose name is coming up more and more at that 8 spot

Stephen Brotherston
The only guy I’ve read who could be coming back for a 2nd workout is Lamb. Casey likes the kid.

Other interesting Q and A

calvinzero
What can you say about trading Calderon and no.8 pick for Luol Deng plus no.29 pick also??

Stephen Brotherston
It’s a move that could really help both teams.

Calderon’s deal comes off the books just as Rose is returning and the Bulls add a lottery pick – likely the shooter Jeremy Lamb.

Raps can probably draft a backup point guard at 29 who they will be happy with and go after either Lowry by trade or Dragic in FA. Deng would fit in nicely with Coach Casey.

If Lillard falls past the Blazers at 6, do you think he goes to Toronoto? Or are you hearing Austin Rivers more?

Stephen Brotherston
Raptors would rather trade their pick but are covering all their bases. They’d like Barnes to fall to them, otherwise I think they like the very good shooter – Lamb.

I’ve tried to get Stefanski to spill, but he’s not falling for it.

dub
Lillard is the young,afraid of nobody flat out scorer the raps are lacking. Agree or disagree? As well the raps are in desperate need of an injection of star power. Who is most likely available for them to fill that void?

Stephen Brotherston
I agree Lillard isn’t afraid of the challenge and could be that flat out scorer – the scorer I’d rather have at SG than PG but you get’em where you find’em. Lillard could be a star, but its not a sure thing – like most of the guys in this draft.

Unless Barnes falls to 8, it’s tough to see the Raps getting a star in this draft – a starter, but not a star.

Corey
If you were in Bryan Colangelo’s shoes what “realistic” deal would you try to pursue to address your needs for a pg of the future and starting/starring sf? Realistic meaning within reason.

Stephen Brotherston
In the draft – Barnes could fall to 8 – not for sure, but really possible – high potential SF.
PG of the future – Tyshawn Taylor or Scott Machado in the 2nd round

The Bulls really do have a big tax problem – and the Bulls historically are not tax payers. Go after Deng – the Bulls can sell a rebuilding program now that Rose will miss next season.

Rockets could move Lowry – and if they don’t, Dragic is a FA who is get-able.

rapsfan
any news on raptors

Stephen Brotherston
That’s all for today.
Thanks for all the great comments and questions.

Raptors have worked out about 30 guys for the draft – they are covering every possible angle from keeping the pick at 8 – to trading 8 and getting a pick in the late 20s – and lots of 2nd rounders (they have 2 picks in the 2nd round).

It was Very Very clear – the Raps would like to get Barnes and hope he falls to them. Other SF, not so much.

It was also clear, the Raps will take the best player available at 8 if necessary including SG or PF.

I think they are targeting a PG with their 2nd round pick (or a pick they get back if they trade 8 )

[ceez]

I get why Stevebro thinks the raps are hot for Barnes but I don't understand the Lamb love. Of all people, Casey is the one I'd see taking issue with him. Weird.

[torch19]

Really, LAMB? He looks disinterested all the time .....

Having said that, Tmac had the same lazy look as well lol. He turned out to be the scoring leader.

[Mediumcore]

Could it be that the negative comments regarding Lamb are like everything else this time of year just over blown? He's still got amazing length and wing span which would make him a terror on D. That is right up Casey's alley.

I'd be happy with any of the prospects pegged to go at 8th. I keep shuffling between Lillard and Waiters mostly, but wouldn't be upset with Rivers or Lamb either.

[ceez]

true enough

[Chr1s1anL]

With the range of interesting players around at that pick. I would not be upset with who BC picks. I've learned that when it comes to actually using the pick BC is good and Steph has a good track record too.

[Garbo]

Personally I can't wait to see how this class pans out. I feel as if the question marks around these guys are huge, but there are so many guys that could prove to be big-time steals. One day I'm thinking Barnes, one day Lillard, one day Waiters... I'm pumped to see what our scouts decide

[Chr1s1anL]

Chad Ford's new mock draft is out. My insider expired can some tell me who has us picking 8? Gut feeling has us still picking Waiters. Which I hope happens. Been a huge supporter of his.

[ceez]

surprisingly no. he has blazers taking drummond at 6, GS taking waiters and us with Lillard.

[ceez]

Analysis: The Raptors were high on Waiters early, but his stock has risen so rapidly that he could very well be off the board when they pick. If that's the case, Lillard may be the next best thing to Waiters as a dynamic backcourt scorer, which the team has lacked.

The Raptors are also open to trading their pick for a veteran wing, who would add some stability to their roster. If they keep the pick, Jeremy Lamb and Austin Rivers are also in the mix here.

thar she blows

[Mediumcore]

I don't understand how Waiters' stock could have risen if he hasn't taken part in any workouts. Essentially he took part in an early workout prior to the combines with a bunch of guys expected to go late first or in the second round. Did really well against that mediocre competition and trash talked about how he wanted to destroy the other SG's in the lottery in the combine workouts, but conveniently said he has a promise so he's not participating.....genius!