2012 Draft Thursday, June 28th: Raptors select Terence Ross

[Mediumcore]

Wouldn't a pick in the 7 to 10 range in this years draft be the same as picking in the 4 to 7 range in last years draft? There is really good talent to be had. We should keep the pick. With the combines I would think that the draft order would get reshuffled a bit. Guys like Beal and T Rob could drop a bit because of a lack of size and guys like PJ3 and Barnes should move up a bit because of size/athletecism etc.. We might be close enough to move up and nab one of them (Beal please!). I wouldn't want them to trade down to get a bench player or something of less value.

[Nilanka]

Wouldn't a pick in the 7 to 10 range in this years draft be the same as picking in the 4 to 7 range in last years draft? There is really good talent to be had. We should keep the pick. With the combines I would think that the draft order would get reshuffled a bit. Guys like Beal and T Rob could drop a bit because of a lack of size and guys like PJ3 and Barnes should move up a bit because of size/athletecism etc.. We might be close enough to move up and nab one of them (Beal please!). I wouldn't want them to trade down to get a bench player or something of less value.

Agreed. I wouldn't trade the pick (unless we're blown away with an offer). Many good players will still be available in the 7-10 range.

[DaveKim]

Agreed. I wouldn't trade the pick (unless we're blown away with an offer). Many good players will still be available in the 7-10 range.

I feel there are a lot of quality PFs when we pick and thus we should trade down and try to get some assets from teams looking for a PF. Unless beal or barnes fall to us, Robinson/perry/Jones are all PF and we already have a log jam.

I really like kendall marshall, but i feel like a pick at 8 may be a bit too high. If we can swap picks down to the early teens (still in the lottery) and get a good talent in return or second rounder, i would like to see a trade go down.

[Nilanka]

I feel there are a lot of quality PFs when we pick and thus we should trade down and try to get some assets from teams looking for a PF. Unless beal or barnes fall to us, Robinson/perry/Jones are all PF and we already have a log jam.

I really like kendall marshall, but i feel like a pick at 8 may be a bit too high. If we can swap picks down to the early teens (still in the lottery) and get a good talent in return or second rounder, i would like to see a trade go down.

If you're targeting Marshall (for example), there's no guarantee that he'll be available at the pick you trade down for. It's a gamble. If you trade down to the 14th pick, he might be chosen at 13. If you trade down to the 10th pick, he might be chosen at 9. Colangelo's probably better off sticking with the pick, and choosing the player he wants...even if it's a few spots too early. Or else, he needs to do some serious detective work to find out who each team is picking, before the selections are made public.

[ceez]

unless a team desperately wants to move up to get a specific player and makes a sweet offer, stick where you are and take who you want. to trade down from the 7-12 range is kind of stupid.

[mcHAPPY]

Lamb to the rescue!

We will not know until May30 where the Raptors pick, however, with approximately an 86.5% chance of picking 8th or 9th and just a 1.3% chance of picking 10th, I feel pretty confident in saying the pick will be 8 or 9 - unless that 12% chance to pick top 3 comes through.

Anyways, I was feeling pretty bummed about the lottery odds given most Raptor fans have been thinking top 5 pick all year - until Boston and Atlanta.

I am not so bummed anymore though. The reason is Jeremy Lamb.

He is 6'5" with a 7'0" wingspan.

He can shoot with range and create off the. He can play defense. Despite DraftExpress.com musing here....

Lamb has all of the tools to flourish at the next level as a shooting guard who can play off the ball and create his own offense, but teams will want to do their best to find out how likely they think he is to reach his potential and fit into a winning culture.

From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz1u0wAzXNK
http://www.draftexpress.com

.... he did win a National Championship and while not 'the man' he played a significant role. Essentially he already possesses many of the skills everyone is hoping DeMar develops.

I think this is a good summary of his year. In a situation where chemistry was lacking, Boatright and Napier were 'look-after-myself-first' point guards, health issues affected coaching, and scandal followed the program, Lamb did alright.

Overall, Lamb's sophomore season probably didn't have a big effect on his draft stock, as he's still considered a lottery-level talent thanks to his terrific physical attributes and scoring instincts. His team's lack of success, poor on-court chemistry and his often apathetic demeanor will likely be concerns that NBA teams will want to further investigate in the pre-draft process, but he's shown tremendous growth as a player after barely being a top 100 recruit out of high school.

From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz1u0wY4gRT
http://www.draftexpress.com

He is explosive:

The biggest drawback on him is his size - or lack thereof. Much like JV last year to this year though, he has noticeably gained mass.

Last year:



This year:




He showed last summer he can handle being the primary scorer with U19 Team USA (Video lifted from NBADraft.net)

2012 Highlight Mix:

Come draft night, regardless of where the Raptors pick (1-3 or 8-10), one of Bradley Beal, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Harrison Barnes, or Jeremy Lamb will almost definitely be available.

*Oh yeah, but if they pick #1, forget these chumps!*

[mcHAPPY]

NBADraft.net: Value picks in 2012 NBA draft

Unlike the NFL draft’s seven rounds or the MLB draft’s 8,000 rounds (rough guestimate), the NBA Draft isn’t deep enough to get into the perceived realm of where value exists. But the perception is dead wrong. Teams just like to stick to the script. Typically they take “their guy” in the first round and a player who either A) fills a specific niche need on the team B) is a high-upside gamble pick or C) a foreign guy they can stash overseas for a few years. That’s the mold.

But value does exist in the NBA Draft. It’s just harder to spot because the draft is condensed. There are tiers of value that exists between the first and second round and even between levels in the first round (early to mid to late).

Teams just focus so much on getting “their guy” that they ignore that a similar player might be available later and provide better value. Normally these similar players have a certain universally accepted knock against them; be it that they’re too short, too unathletic, too many injury red flags, the dreaded “senior” tag, ect. But we’ve seen time and time again players overcome such labels.

Just look to the past 3 drafts for examples:

2011 – Kemba Walker (#9), Isiaah Thomas (#60)

What did Kemba Walker have that Isiaah Thomas didn’t? A couple inches, an amazing NCAA tournament run, and exposure. Thomas put up similar numbers (and was actually a better shooter) and showed similar knack for late game heroics, but he did so in a down Pac 10. That combined with his height (which somehow didn’t stop teams from reaching incredibly on Johnny Flynn) led him to become the NBA’s Mr. Irrelevant. It didn’t even matter that Thomas displayed better PG skills. After each player’s rookie season, would the Kings trade Thomas for Walker straight up now? Not a chance.

Jan Vesley (#6), Chandler Parsons (#38)

Vesley had the upside, Parsons had the polish. Both guys who can have eclectic skillsets for their size, but the do-it-all college vet was overlooked (for more of Daryl Morey exploiting this market inefficiency see: Budinger, Chase).

2010 – Luke Babbit (#16), Laundry Fields (#39)

Here’s another example of upside versus polish. While it’s clear what advantage Babbit had over Fields (taller, slightly more athletic, and a better shooter), they were both role player SFs and Fields was clearly more ready to compete in the league from day one.

2009 – ]Player: Tyler Hansbrough] (#13), DeJaun Blair (#37)

This is the clearest example of how the NBA just continually fails to understand value. I continue to believe that Blair slipping to the second round is the second dumbest thing to happen in a draft in the past five years (the first is of course -say it with me kids-“HASHEEM THABEET!”). If you wanted a spark off the bench to provide hustle, rebounding, and intangibles Hansbrough and Blair were virtually equals (I gave a slight edge to Blair at the time). But because Blair has no ACLs (disregarding the fact that Blair had been playing like that for years), he went 24 picks later. That’s an insane gap for even skillsets. If the NBA worked like the NFL, the Pacers could’ve traded back to the end of the first round and picked up Blair and a second rounder or future pick.

***

With that in mind, who are the potential value picks in the 2012 NBA Draft? Who are the poor man’s version of top prospects who might turn out to be a better use of resources? We all know the guys worth trading up for, but who is worth trading back for? Let’s take a look…

Bradley Beal (top 5) - John Jenkins (late first to early second)

Both are 6’4” SEC shooting guards who aren’t tremendous athletes and whose best skill is shooting. But Beal is likely going to go in the top 5, while Jenkins might be a second rounder. Oh I forgot to mention, Jenkins is the better shooter of the two. Jenkins shot a full 10 percentage points better behind the arc last season (.439 compared to Beal’s .339).

Thomas Robinson (top 5) - Andrew Nicholson (late first)

The difference between Robinson and Nicholson comes from the eye test. Robinson simply looks so much more imposing than Nicholson (also people have had more chances to see Robinson as Kansas plays a few more national TV games than St. Bonaventure). But for a team seeking a value version of the Player of the Year finalist, should give the less heralded Bonnie a look. He has the same offensive skillset and the only skill where he significantly trails Robinson is rebounding.

Harrison Barnes (top 10) - Jeffrey Taylor (late first) or Kris Joseph (likely second)

While Harrison Barnes has been criticized a bit too hard following UNC’s tourney failure, even with his stock slipping there are very good players that could be better values. Both Taylor and Kris Joseph offer a similar balanced skillset at the SF position. The vast difference the draft projection between them and Barnes comes from Barnes being a much better shooter.

Austin Rivers (lottery) - Doron Lamb (late first)

This one is a bit team specific. There’s an obvious perception that the Celtics would like to pick up Austin Rivers to so he could be coached by his pops, Doc Rivers. If a lottery team seeking a SG (Phoenix at 13 for instance) could work a deal with that would land them both of Boston’s late first round picks (possibly the lotto pick + a second rounder), they should jump on that immediately. Picking up Doron Lamb would give that team a shooter/combo guard on par with Rivers and the chance to snag another talent in this deep draft class.

Fab Melo (late first) - Robert Sacre (late second to undrafted)

Any team that drafts Fab Melo is doing so to nab a defensive presence at center. That’s exactly what Sacre offers, but with less athleticism. Here’s the catch, Sacre has shown he can play man-to-man D while Melo hasn’t (thanks to the Syracuse system). The Gonzaga big man gave Kevin Jones fits in their NCAA tournament matchup, and would even guard PGs at times last season for the Zags. Even getting beyond D, Sacre has a more developed offensive game and teams can leave him in late in games as he’s an amazing FT shooter for a center.

Perry Jones (lottery) - Moe Harkless (mid-to-late first)

The biggest question marks with Jones concern his consistency, motor, and toughness. Those aren’t issues with Harkless. While there’s no denying the upside of Jones, the rawer Harkless could actually be a safer pick and a potential trade back candidate.

Quincy Miller (late first) - Darius Miller (early second)

Expect these two to be confused for one another a few times leading up to the draft. Both have a similar jump shot and while Quincy has more perceived upside, Darius has more experience (polish!) and strength. While they may not go terribly far apart, the contract structure difference between a first and second rounder could easily make getting Darius in the second round the superior pick.

Marquis Teague (late first) - Maalik Wayns (mid-to-late second)

Teague has more athletic tools, while Wayns is the better passer. Considering these are PGs we’re talking about here, this could end up being a wash in terms of overall talent. Since (hopefully) neither guy will be asked to step in and start from day one, Wayns might be just as good a backup PG as Teague (at least for the duration of their rookie deals).

http://nbadraft.net/value-picks-2012-nba-draft

[Puffer]

Ha....great find Matt. And so true...the team with the most accurate analysis wins. Now if someone could only come up with a search a;gorithm. Get the boys at Google working on it.

[jbml]

http://www.hoopsworld.com/where-do-t...s-go-from-here

The Rockets are again expected to pick in the middle of the pack in this summer’s NBA draft, but this time around they have two picks. HOOPSWORLD’s Mock Draft team has Houston going for size at 14, choosing either Tyler Zeller or Meyers Leonard, while the consensus opinion is that they will look for a wing at 16 with either Austin Rivers or Quincy Miller.

They must find a legit starting center and they must find a franchise player to help them win games in the clutch.

Ultimately, the Rockets would be much better off either packaging their two first round picks to land a top five or else trying to move down.

[The Coach]

http://nbadraft.net/value-picks-2012-nba-draft

How about Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (top 3) - Terrence Ross (mid first round)

Some sites have Ross playing the SF and others the SG, either way I really like the description of his skills for our needs on the wing.

From draftexpress.com:

Looking forward, Ross has taken as big a step forward as almost any player in the country this season, and clearly has a slew of attractive assets from an NBA perspective. His combination of physical tools, defense, perimeter shooting, and ability to attack the rim off the ball give him good potential as a very high-end role player, and he still has room to grow. Continuing to improve his ball-handling and continuing to add strength to his frame would help his stock, which is something he could show in pre-draft workout matchups, where his makeup as a player and commitment to defense could allow him to shine.

From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz1u298TPQJ
http://www.draftexpress.com

Swishscout:

Long Story Short: T-Ross is an emerging swingman with great versatility in his ability to shoot, create, pass, rebound and defend. While loaded with potential, he still needs to fill out his frame and refine his shot selection, but an intriguing prospect that could challenge for a 2012 Draft lottery spot if he declares.

Best Case Scenario: Jason Richardson
Worst Case Scenario: smaller Dorell Wright

[mcHAPPY]

What are people's thoughts on Jeremy Lamb?

[Maleko]

What are people's thoughts on Jeremy Lamb?

Potential and his shot would be great here assuming BC grabs a stellar SF in a trade, but despite his increase in size/frame as you pointed out earlier his small frame would be my concern. Wouldn't be heartbroken if he is chosen.

[Maleko]

I am surprised Harkless is projected as low as he is. It seems to me last year I saw projections of him in the top 10 at least and he didn't, IMO, do anything this year to damage that. Maybe I am remembering wrong or dreame about this but I was sure heading into this winter that he was a target to seek.

[ste0250]

Come draft night, regardless of where the Raptors pick (1-3 or 8-10), one of Bradley Beal, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Harrison Barnes, or Jeremy Lamb will almost definitely be available.


I have a horrible feeling that all 4 of these guys will be gone by the time we pick. The Top 6 (AD, MKG, BB, TR, HB, ADrummond) seem like a lock, the only question is what does GSW do with their pick? My guess is PJ3 or Lamb, they go with guys with upside instead of guys whose value is better understood (Sullinger)

I would love Lamb at 8, just have a bad feeling in my stomach he will be gone by then.

Damn you coin flip!!!

[draftedraptor]

kemba walker and thomas? They will be forgotten next year.

kenneth faried - 22nd pick. the best pick of the 2011 draft IMO. I cannot stress how important a player like him would be if we are playing Jonas and Bargnani next year.

l hope BC trades down which will allow him to draft high risk projects without much criticism.