2012 Draft Thursday, June 28th: Raptors select Terence Ross

[ceez]

Did anybody find out what deal BC had in place last draft before big Val fell into his lap? I assume he was going to move down a bit, I'm just interested on what it was exactly.

[jcly]

Joe Dumars said (in his 2011 post draft press conference) he was "on the phone" discussing a trade with the raptors when the Cav’s picked Tristan. Not sure what the other assets would have been but they would have swapped picks and Toronto would have picked one of the point guards.

[ceez]

Huh. Interesting. Thanks!

[stretch]

I checked out the number 8 picks from the previous 15 years and it's not exactly a star studded cast. Rudy Gay, Brandon Knight, Andre Miller, and Jamal Crawford are the best of the group though none have made an all star appearance. There are some real dogs including Joe Alexander, Araujo, and Diop. Here's the list:

2011 Brandon Knight
2010 Al-Farouq Aminu
2009 Jordan Hll
2008 Joe Alexander
2007 Brandan Wright
2006 Rudy Gay
2005 Channing Frye
2004 Rafael Araujo
2003 T.J. Ford
2002 Chris Wilcox
2001 DeSagana Diop
2000 Jamal Crawford
1999 Andre Miller
1998 Larry Hughes
1997 Adonal Foyle
1996 Kerry Kittles

[Bouncepass]

I don't think Lamb is in the mix at all. Remember when Casey talked about how important motor is?

A lot can change but I think the raps big board looks like:

Barnes
Lillard
Waiters

And if they trade down a couple spots:
Rivers
Harkless
Ross

This sounds very plausible. I still have my concerns about Lillard because he is 2-3 years older than most other guards and wings in the draft. He has developed well, but I think you still have to consider how players like Harkless and Rivers would be after 3-4 years in college. I would think that if they worked hard, they would both have more consistent shots, have better physical tools, and be much more productive.

I hate to be a wet blanket, but there is a reason that Lillard wasn't highly thought of when he was first draft eligible. As a Freshman at Weber State Lillard's numbers after his Freshman year for Weber State his numbers were:

Min 29.4
PPG 11.5 (15.6 /40 min)
43.4% FG (49.0% 2P, 37.4% 3P)
84.1% FT
3.9 RPG
2.9 APG
2.3 TO

For comparison, Rivers' stats as a freshman for Duke:

Min 33.2
PPG 15.5 (18.7 /40 min)
43.3% FG (47.7% 2P, 36.5% 3P)
65.8% FT
3.4 RPG
2.1 APG
2.3 TO

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Interesting article about Charlotte's workout this morning, featuring Beal VS MKG: http://espn.go.com/nba/draft2012/sto...kidd-gilchrist

Looks like Beal expects to go top-4:

Beal has previously worked out for Washington and Cleveland, who own the Nos. 3 and 4 picks, and said he would not work out for any other teams.
"My agent and I have discussed that," Beal said. "Everybody's pretty much telling me I won't go any lower than that (No. 4) so I just limited myself to where I fit in best."

[Nilanka]

I checked out the number 8 picks from the previous 15 years and it's not exactly a star studded cast. Rudy Gay, Brandon Knight, Andre Miller, and Jamal Crawford are the best of the group though none have made an all star appearance. There are some real dogs including Joe Alexander, Araujo, and Diop. Here's the list:

2011 Brandon Knight
2010 Al-Farouq Aminu
2009 Jordan Hll
2008 Joe Alexander
2007 Brandan Wright
2006 Rudy Gay
2005 Channing Frye
2004 Rafael Araujo
2003 T.J. Ford
2002 Chris Wilcox
2001 DeSagana Diop
2000 Jamal Crawford
1999 Andre Miller
1998 Larry Hughes
1997 Adonal Foyle
1996 Kerry Kittles

Yeah, but the following players were available within 3 picks following the 8th pick:

2011 - Kemba Walker, Klay Thompson (the jury is still on these two)
2010 - Paul George
2009 - Brandon Jennings
2008 - Brook Lopez
2007 - Joakim Noah
2006 - ...
2005 - Andrew Bynum
2004 - Andre Iguodala
2003 - ...
2002 - Amare Stoudemire, Caron Butler
2001 - Joe Johnson
2000 - ...
1999 - Shawn Marion, Jason Terry
1998 - Dirk Nowitzki, Paul Pierce
1997 - Tracy McGrady
1996 - ...

Although the 8th pick hasn't been the greatest, there have been some very good players available when the 8th pick was made. Had respective teams' scouting departments been more skilled in their trades, the 8th pick in previous of years could've been stellar.

There should be plenty of great players available with our 8th pick. It's up to Colangelo & Co. not to fuck it up.

[stretch]

Sullinger's been red flagged.

[themasao]

Hollinger Draft Rater

Don't think this has been posted yet. Hollinger just released his draft rater: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft...ba-draft-rater

It's insider, but here are some of the interesting tidbits (especially for our purposes).

1. Sullinger has the second highest rating among bigs (Davis blows everyone out of the water). BUT Hollinger even mentions that his systems weakest spot, and the spot it is most likely to OVERestimate at, is with defensively lacking power forwards. I prefer to think of this weak spot as more geared towards undersized/underathletic power forwards, but you get the idea: Sullinger doesn't make it to number 2 on any board without a big FAT asterisk.

2. PER is really high on Waiters -- he has the highest ranking among ALL guards. Now, I am a professed Waiter-Haiter, but I try to never get too down or up on a prospect at this time of the year. I've been so wrong so many times that its hard for me to really hate or love one guy unreservedly -- at the end of the day, I'm probably wrong. So that being said, I'm willing to be convinced on the Waiters front, and I like what I'm hearing from Hollinger:

"As I noted with Leonard a year ago, wing players -- especially bigger ones -- with strong Draft Rater marks virtually never fail. Of the eight players to rate above 13 in the past decade, the worst among them was Josh Childress. Five of the players have played in an All-Star Game, and Rudy Gay may play in an All-Star Game soon. The seventh player is Leonard.

This year, we have two names to add to that list: Dion Waiters and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Kidd-Gilchrist is probably the safest pick on the board -- a big wing who plays defense, has strong stats and comes with no character questions. From a risk-aversion perspective alone he should be a top-five pick; I have him third on my board after Robinson. (See below for how I would rank the prospects, regardless of their Draft Rater numbers.)

I have Waiters fourth for similar reasons. His size, 6-foot-4, is more of a concern, but whatever team made him a promise did a wise thing. Waiters projects as the best small wing since Dwyane Wade, and he'd be a steal if somebody got him in the Nos. 8-10 range currently being discussed."

Other things of note: Beal and Barnes are both ranked lower than they are normally projected. Hollinger hates on Lillard big time, ranks him below Marshal, Teague, and Wroten among PG's for example. Quincy Miller would be a great sleeper pick (as I have been thinking all along -- would LOVE to snag him with our first 2nd rounder.)

Those of you who aren't insiders who want to hear more of Hollinger and less of me, let me know. I can probably do some more copy/pasting.

[themasao]

Oh and here's his big board. Not solely based on PER ratings, but obviously heavily influenced, given the stark contrast to Ford and other mocks.
1. Anthony Davis
2. Thomas Robinson
3. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
4. Dion Waiters
5. Andre Drummond

6. Quincy Miller
7. Jared Sullinger
8. Terrence Jones
9. John Henson
10. Royce White

11. Bradley Beal
12. Harrison Barnes
13. Tony Wroten
14. Kendall Marshall
15. Marquis Teague

16. Draymond Green
17. Jeremy Lamb
18. Damian Lillard
19. Austin Rivers
20. Doron Lamb

21. Furkan Aldemir
22. Will Barton
23. Tyler Zeller
24. Evan Fournier
25. Tyshawn Taylor

26. Meyers Leonard
27. Terrence Ross
28. Perry Jones
29. Festus Ezeli
30. Fab Melo

31. Kostas Sloukas
32. Henry Sims
33. Terrell Stoglin
34. Kostas Papanikolaou
35. Moe Harkless

36. Leon Radosevic
37. JaMychal Green
38. Andrew Nicholson
39. Drew Gordon
40. Garrett Stutz

41. Robert Sacre
42. Arnett Moultrie
43. Elias Harris
44. William Buford
45. Jae Crowder

46. Jared Cunningham
47. Jordan Taylor
48. John Jenkins
49. Orlando Johnson
50. Jeffrey Taylor

51. Quincy Acy
52. Maalik Wayns
53. Tornike Shengelia
54. Scott Machado
55. Mike Scott

56. J'Covan Brown
57. Reggie Hamilton
58. Khris Middleton
59. Tony Mitchell
60. Miles Plumlee

[saints91]

Sullinger has been red flagged with medical concerns. Found on hoops hype. I guess he is off the Raptors list.

Ohio State Buckeyes big man Jared Sullinger has been medically red flagged by NBA doctors, multiple league sources told ESPN.com on Monday. ESPN.com
DRAFT, JARED SULLINGER | SHARE
Sullinger's agent, David Falk, when reached via phone by ESPN.com said that he was not in a position to comment on the story. Sullinger, who is projected to be a lottery pick in the 2012 NBA draft, underwent a series of medical tests at the NBA draft combine a week ago. According to sources, the doctors who looked at Sullinger were concerned with Sullinger's back. ESPN.com
DRAFT, JARED SULLINGER | SHARE


A number of NBA team doctors have reviewed the information from the NBA and have told their front office staff that Sullinger's back issues could shorten his NBA career and some have advised their teams not to draft him in the first round. Sullinger missed two games for Ohio State in early December with back spasms. ESPN.com
DRAFT, JARED SULLINGER | SHARE

Sullinger's father, Satch Sullinger, said he believes the issue isn't that serious. "He had a bulging area that was due to his hamstring and quads being so tight," Satch Sullinger told ESPN.com senior college basketball writer Andy Katz in a phone call Monday afternoon. "It pulled on his hip flexor and he's been taking care of it to loosen it. You can call it a red flag if you want. But it's tight hamstring and tight quads. He's been to doctors, he's doing yoga and deep tissue massage. The flexibility is helping take the pressure off the area. "We've got nothing to hide. At this stage it's all about what they can't do. Jared is a skilled player. A two-time All-American. He can play." ESPN.com
DRAFT, JARED SULLINGER | SHARE

[ceez]

That PER predicter thing is really fascinating and I was surprised to see Waiters rated that high.

It'd be interesting to see how it rated players the last couple years and how they actually panned out.

[Maleko]

That PER predicter thing is really fascinating and I was surprised to see Waiters rated that high.

It'd be interesting to see how it rated players the last couple years and how they actually panned out.

Definitely agree. The two main things it completely ignores is character and predilection for injury.

[The Coach]

From Toronto Star today:

While Colangelo would not name names as far as who he might pick, it’s not difficult to figure it out. He expects Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist of Kentucky, Brad Beal of Florida, Thomas Robinson of Kansas, Weber State’s Damian Lillard and, likely, Harrison Barnes of North Carolina to be gone — leaving Duke’s Austin Rivers, Dion Waiters of Syracuse and Ohio State’s Jared Sullinger as possibilities at No. 8.

“There’s a host of guys who are still there,” said Colangelo, who will meet with Toronto’s medical staff Tuesday and the team’s sports psychology consultant Wednesday for reports on various players.

The Raptors will hold one more significant workout session in Toronto. On Thursday, Sullinger, Baylor forward Perry Jones III, Kentucky forward Terrence Jones and, possibly, North Carolina forward John Henson will work out at the Air Canada Centre.

Just what I feared... Lillard is thought to be gone by #8. Interesting to see that Perry Jones is coming into workout this week.

[themasao]

I thought the same, Ceez. He provides a link to the same article from last year, and I found that even more fascinating -- tracking the relative success of his predictions, especially those that differed from the popular opinion. Not to give him tooo much credit, but he really was super hi (contra a lot of other scouts) on Leonard and Cole and low (again, contra most other scouts) on Fredette and Vesely for example. Also, he loved Valanciunas, which is nice .

But the thing that excites me the most about the Waiters projection, is that one of the self-diagnosed strengths of his PER system was that wing prospects above a certain score were, and hopefully remain, essentially bust-proof. The fact that Waiters falls in that Bust Proof range is really cool seeing as he is not viewed by most as a top 10 pick, let alone as the 4th best prospect.

Here is the list of all wings who ranked in that range over the last 10 years:
Kevin Durant 17.67
Dwyane Wade 17.05
Carmelo Anthony 16.63
Danny Granger 15.43
Rudy Gay 15.10
Luol Deng 14.46
Josh Childress 13.37
Kawhi Leonard 13.21
Mike Dunleavy 12.95
Dajuan Wagner 12.72

Not a bad list, and Waiters score is 14.12, which ranks him below the all-stars, but above the role-players like Childress and Dunleavy. If Waiters an match Luol Deng-esque production in the form of a slashing 2 guard, I will be more than pleased with this draft.