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  • #31
    tbihis wrote: View Post
    im really not a numbers guy so i really dont believe in the PERs (although i should), but i do look at things plainly, like a rebound is a rebound, a block is a block, point is a point, etc etc.

    i just think there are way too many variables when it comes to the PER. there are way too many "it depends" situations when calculating the PER. but if you guys can explain it, maybe i can be a believer, hehe.
    Anything over 20 is pretty good.

    Bargnani makes a lot of C's in the league look pretty good.

    When it comes to PF's, he makes them look like they caught fire in NBA Jam.

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    • #32
      tbihis wrote: View Post
      im really not a numbers guy so i really dont believe in the PERs (although i should), but i do look at things plainly, like a rebound is a rebound, a block is a block, point is a point, etc etc.

      i just think there are way too many variables when it comes to the PER. there are way too many "it depends" situations when calculating the PER. but if you guys can explain it, maybe i can be a believer, hehe.
      Start with this...
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Player_Efficiency_Rating

      Per certainly isn't the greatest stat, but it gives you a decent snapshot of a player's production, not including his defense. Basically, a guy who's a good defender is generally better than his PER and visa versa.
      Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
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      • #33
        Matt52 wrote: View Post
        Anything over 20 is pretty good.

        Bargnani makes a lot of C's in the league look pretty good.

        When it comes to PF's, he makes them look like they caught fire in NBA Jam.
        Actually, anything above 20 is very good. 20 is borderline All-Star. No one on the Raptors averaged above 18.
        Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
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        • #34
          Tim W. wrote: View Post
          Actually, anything above 20 is very good. 20 is borderline All-Star. No one on the Raptors averaged above 18.
          Sorry Tim. I'll work on my use of adjectives for referencing PER.

          Regardless of good, pretty good, very good the point was Bargnani allows opposing PF's to play the entire game

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          • #35
            Matt52 wrote: View Post
            Sorry Tim. I'll work on my use of adjectives for referencing PER.

            Regardless of good, pretty good, very good the point was Bargnani allows opposing PF's to play the entire game

            Hey, all I know is that I feel a lot better when my wife says I was very good, than when she's says I was pretty good.
            Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
            Follow me on Twitter.

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            • #36
              I don't really believe in using PER to measure an someone's individual defense at a position, but Bargnani allowing a PER of 30 when playing PF basically turns his opponent into a Shaq level player...in his prime. I mean, that's just absurdly high.

              But basically: White Swan is decent at post defense, against big, burly centers. He is terrible at everything else. I fail to see how moving him to PF, especially since the positions are getting continually blurred will help him. He will have to guard generally far, far, far, more offensive potent players. Players that are faster, almost as strong as Cs, and have increasing fleeting post game. He'll have to help on ball screens more, he'll be out on the perimeter more. Instead of team calling for a 1-5 ball screen involving him and Calderon, it'll be a 1-4 ball-screen, with a much more potent offensive threat though.

              His post defense wasn't even good this year. Because is help defense is so piss poor, I think that we can all agree that he got his blocks on his own man. His blocks saw a 50% drop, and he went an entire freaking month without recording one.

              Honestly coming into this season, I seriously couldn't imagine Bargnani regressing on D the way he did. It didn't even cross my mind as feasible.

              I don't think people understand how far he is from becoming a passable defender. For example if he grabbed 2 more boards a game, that would be a 40% increase! Not only that, but he would still be very poor at it for his size and position(s).

              Even if he does turn it around, do you really want to have to rely so much on a player that constantly needs a forest fire under his ass?

              Out of the 936 time that a player averaged more 17+ shots a game, 177 times did they manage to score less than 20PPG.

              Also, comparing Mike James when he was here to Bargnani's season sure doesn't make him look so special. At least James was a productive offensive player, lol.

              Comment


              • #37
                CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
                You make it sound as though your opinion is fact! lol The fact is, there are quite a few Raptors fans that think Bargnani is a valuable member of the team and has the potential to improve further.

                First, I agree that of the 3 bigs under contract for this year, Davis should be the #1 keeper long-term.

                However, I would much rather see the Raps trade Amir before Bargnani. The reasons behind my opinion include reasons why I would want to keep Bargnani and reasons why I think Amir is the most expendible.

                BARGNANI
                - will be just 26 next season and is finally playing under a defensive coach with proven results on the defensive end, with lots of room for improvement
                - if moved to PF with a legit last-line-of-defense C playing beside him (stop-gap C the next couple years, then JV), his weak help defense will become much less of a problem (especially if they start a better defensive PG and DeRozan improves his defense at SG)
                - I think his man defense is underrated, because he's been such a weak help-defense C; when he can concentrate more on man defense, knowing there is a defensive C backing him up, I think his confidence and success will be much better than last season
                - I think rebounds can improve, just by putting in a bit more effort; I for one am not overly concerned with individual rebounding stats, so long as the team is getting the boards, but I think he can improve
                - I think you're under valuing a consistent 20-25 pt threat, who can create serious mismatches on the offensive end; there is an intangible benefit for the entire team that his mismatches create that don't show up in any statistical category, plus I think with a better shooting team you'd see his assist numbers go up (he is a smart player and I think he's an underrated passer)
                - thinking long-term, JV is a defensive C with a purely inside game offensively and Davis is your hustle/banger at PF on both ends of the floor; I think Bargnani's finesse game and ability to pull the defense out and spread the floor will be a fantastic compliment to JV/Davis as a 3-headed monster frontcourt for the Raptors

                AMIR
                - I love his hustle, heart and determination, but at the end of the day, I just don't think he's that good (from watching every game the past several seasons), nor do I think he has significant room to improve his game
                - I think his defense is overrated and the quality of his defense went down along with his decreased foul-rate
                - he has very little offensive game and the opposition has no respect for a very inconsistent mid-range game, meaning he can't spread the floor and will be crowding the offensive paint alongside JV/Davis
                - I just think his game is too much a duplication of Davis' and having JV, Davis and Amir is just too much repetition of the same skillsets; yes this team needs more hustle, defense and rebounding than it's had in the past, but you need to have a balance of skills - the influx of defensive oriented bigs is done with JV/Davis, so overall I think Amir has become redundant and expendible
                - I also think his contract is attractive for a team looking for a proven backup PF, who can play 25 mins a night, meaning he should have some decent trade value
                - blue-collared PF who play 20-25 mins a night and average 10 pts / 8 rebounds are far easier to come by (either veterans or through drafts) than C/PF who have the ability/potential to spread the floor and average 25 pts / 6 rebounds... part of the expendibility comes down to supply & demand (especially now that you have 2 good young bigs in JV/Davis, who have primary skillsets focussed on defense/rebounding to play alongside that scoring C/PF)


                Overall I think a team is most successful when they have a good variety of skillsets to call upon. When looking at the C and PF positions, I believe that a future lineup of JV/Davis/Bargnani offers much more balance, versatility and combinations with different looks, than a lineup of JV/Davis/Amir does. A team won't be successful with 3 finesse players any more than it would be successful with 3 bangers; JV/Davis/Bargnani offers a good mix of both, with combinations that could cause all sorts of matchup nightmares for opposing teams. Against certain teams, the Raps could even go with a huge frontcourt, where Bargnani plays SF on the court with both JV & Davis, when he can matchup at SF against the likes of Turkoglu, Kirilenko, Vessley, etc...
                you make fun of his post saying he calls his opinion fact and then you start off with "the fact is" and then backing it all up with "I think"? seriously? i wish all the crap you're saying about Bargnani was right because if he could play help defense and would rebound the ball, then he'd be top 10 player in the league. he doesn't want to be. you can see he has no desire to change and quotes from him over the years reveal that. why do you want your center to shoot 3's? he's supposed to rebound and get putbacks. not camp out at the 3 point line. there is so much that bargnani does that hurts the team that i can't see why we would want him to move forward.

                you have the wishlist for bargnani that we had last year. yeah he's got a new coach but the desire hasn't changed.

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                • #38
                  In this scenario, I would trade Amir or Davis, as they are very similar in what they bring to the table, in size, age, defensive and rebounding abilities, spot up shooting, etc. I keep Bargnani because I think his game is completly different and is the best player in my opinion, which I am quite aware is a minority opinion here.

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                  • #39
                    Start Davis, bench Johnson, trade Bargnani.

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                    • #40
                      Ugh Bargnani is a volume scorer, his numbers are inflated because he plays on a bad team, and brings absolutely nothing in any other facet of the game. Why can't people understand that? If he wasn't the 1st overall pick, would people really want a lazy 7 footer who doesn't rebound or play defence on their team? NO. Trade him now while his value isn't crap yet. He's not some superstar player where we should build a team around him to mask his deficiencies. He'd make a good 2nd or 3rd option in the right system (like Orlando).

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                      • #41
                        eez_bee explained it to all of you about Bargnani's contract and his inability to play good defence regardless of position. I can't agree more and I couldn't write it better.
                        Tim W. kind of owned everybody who were on the Bargnani's "help defense" side.
                        My opinion is that we should start Amir.He has more room to grow(actually a lot more than Bargnani because he is younger,he played less and he works a lot harder and most importantly he WANTS to improve.He showed it and I value very highly his statement on the end of season press conference about his desires towards the organization.)
                        Davis would be a beast again off the bench.If he reaches that star level that you are all preaching about then he should start ahead of Amir and they can switch roles. I don't see that happening 2011/12 season.
                        That leaves Bargnani to the sharks for all I care. I really hope that Colangelo will do the right thing(even if he stepps out of the GM position) and trade his ass. He DIDN'T at all improve his defence or rebounding.He improved to a 18 shots 21ppg scorer which is REALLY not that good.I mean come on...aren't you watching another teams? How many mediocre players have bombed more than 20 points against us? Stop bringing his scoring as his value.Basketball is offense AND defense. We don't have to keep player who lacks one of the above and to try to compensate that with defensive minded centers,or another signings to hide his weaknesses. It is about the TEAM not about Bragnani.He is not helping the team win many games.I am sorry I am too lazy to give you stats link but just have a look in the Bargnani thread and you will see plenty of those.

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                        • #42
                          If there is a season this year, I think the raps will start Johnson at C, Bargs at PF, and move Davis to the bench to let him dominate the other teams second unit.
                          If Bargs overall game doesn't improve much, then hopefully BC can get a good trade going for him at the deadline, then just tread water for the rest of the season with a rotation of Davis, Johnson, Alibi and some D-league stiff (or Ajinca!).
                          For 2012-2013, start JV at C, Davis at 4, and move Johnson to the bench.
                          If Bargs overall game does improve over the 2011-2012 season, then put together a good trade for Johnson in the following off-season, and go into 2012-2013 with JV at C, and let Bargs/Davis battle it out for the starting PF spot.

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                          • #43
                            Matt52 wrote: View Post
                            Bargnani's OPP PER as a C was 21.1.

                            Bargnani's OPP PER as a PF was 31.8.

                            *ugh*

                            http://www.82games.com/1011/10TOR19.HTM#bypos
                            Well, if we quote those numbers we should add the following:

                            Bargnani's PER as a C was 16.2

                            Bargnani's PER as a PF was 30.5

                            Furthermore, if I read it correctly, according the player floor time stats by position Bargnani only played 1% of all total available time at PF. That makes the stats at PF not very dependable. So, if we do take the stats seriously the PER difference at PF (-1.3) was way better (read 'not as terrible') than the PER difference at C. But because of the 1% we should not base any arguments on these stats.
                            Last edited by Soft Euro; Sun Jul 17, 2011, 06:10 PM.

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                            • #44
                              Tim W. wrote: View Post
                              I really don't understand why people cling to the notion that Bargnani's defense will be hidden if he's moved to PF. First of all, PFs have to defend the basket as much as centers do. The two positions are just about interchangeable, in the NBA.
                              82games.com (and many advanced stats) still makes a difference between PF and C position. I agree that there are lots of teams and players who do not simply fall into the pg/sg/sf/pf/c category and that we cannot precisely differentiate between each position in most teams. But I do think that calling the positions pf and c interchangeable in general is not correct. That on many occassions there is not a lot off difference between the two does not mean there isn't a difference. Teams with players like Shaq, Howard, Chandler still play with a real center. A lot of teams where pf and c are interchangeable simply do not have a true center. There seem to be a lot more power forwards with nba talent than centers, making teams play two pf's at the pf/c positions.

                              It's all very murky for sure. Maybe the 5-way distinction in the regular line-up should be replaced (for analysing purposes) by a bunch of roles so we can analyse the player's production according to the role he has rather than his position.

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                              • #45
                                Soft Euro wrote: View Post
                                82games.com (and many advanced stats) still makes a difference between PF and C position. I agree that there are lots of teams and players who do not simply fall into the pg/sg/sf/pf/c category and that we cannot precisely differentiate between each position in most teams. But I do think that calling the positions pf and c interchangeable in general is not correct. That on many occassions there is not a lot off difference between the two does not mean there isn't a difference. Teams with players like Shaq, Howard, Chandler still play with a real center. A lot of teams where pf and c are interchangeable simply do not have a true center. There seem to be a lot more power forwards with nba talent than centers, making teams play two pf's at the pf/c positions.

                                It's all very murky for sure. Maybe the 5-way distinction in the regular line-up should be replaced (for analysing purposes) by a bunch of roles so we can analyse the player's production according to the role he has rather than his position.
                                The fact that Bargnani only apparently played 1% of his time at PF, when in reality he defended a lot of PFs and played the PF position in the zone tells you something. Yes, there are certainly centers who play the traditional center roll, but they are few and far between. Besides, what exactly IS the traditional roll of the center? To defend and rebound? There are certainly a lot of PFs over the years whose roll it was to defend and rebound, including Amir and Davis. Some centers have been scorers, some PFs have been scorers. Some centers have been jumpshooters, some PFs have been jumpshooters. Some centers have been shot blockers, some PFs have been shotblockers.

                                On defense, all front court players are responsible for protecting the rim, not just the center. It all depends on where each player is when the ball is being driven to the hoop. Sometimes the center might be closest, sometimes the PF might be closest.

                                The most important thing, in my opinion, is which position you can DEFEND. Bargnani is 7 feet, is "most effective" when defending bigger, slower post up players and struggles against faceup and quicker players. Sounds like his most effective position on defense is center.

                                And the problem with the notion that his defense would be less of a problem against a defensive center, I give you Amir and Davis. Both guys who are good team defenders and is exactly the type of player that everyone says Bargnani should play beside. And it didn't help at all.
                                Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
                                Follow me on Twitter.

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