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Has Bargnani peaked?

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  • Has Bargnani peaked?

    Moderators please feel free to merge this into the Bargnani thread. I just wanted to start a discussion on this topic first.

    A lot of guys on the forum believe that Bargnani could be our franchise player. The way he's been playing the first 10 games has been a pleasant surprise. I still doubt if he can co-exist with a stud SF, but that's besides the point.

    Has Bargnani peaked this season? Is this season the best we will ever get from him?

    If we are a bad team now and are building towards the future, would it make more sense to trade Bargnani now while he has peaked before he degrades in performance?

    I found the following article today:

    It lists the average age that NBA top scorers have peaked. It shows that the average age is at around 25 years. There are some exceptions of course (Hakeem peaked at 32, Pettit at 29 and Robinson at 28), but for the most part a scorer peaked at 25/26.

    Bargnani is 26 this year. He'll be 27 next season and if he hasn't peaked this year there is a big chance he'll peak next year.

    The average number of years according to the article would be about 5 years. This year is Bargnani's 6th year.

    Is it worthwhile to keep Bargnani when we probably won't be a good team until 2014/2015, when Bargnani turns 29/30? I think Bargnani has been playing lights out, but I'm still not sold on him as a future piece for our core. If we trade Bargnani then we could move Davis into the starting rotation and try and land a better SF (or PG) or another lottery pick in 2012 so we can get younger assets that can grow together. Bargnani could play for another 7/8 years, but those years could be worse off than he's playing this year. Is that a gamble worth taking?

    I'm not blind to the fact that science and technology has improved since the 50's and 60's, so a player should be able to play longer at a more consistent level, but peaking and playing for a long time are two different things.

    I guess Bargnani has proven that he could be the exception to the rule. Play fairly lousy (ie, one dimensionally) for 5 years, and then play like he's an alien in his 6th year... so he may not fit the average nba'er - but I'm still worried that this might be the best we'll ever get from him.