Lin to the Raptors a good idea? Lin Raptors Plan B? (168)

[BallaBalla]

I trust that Colangelo is enough of a professional that he would be fully aware of Lin's abilities/inabilities no matter what market he played in, whether it was New Orleans or New York.

I pray that you are right...he has made the mistake before cough HEDO cough cough

[Nilanka]

We'll have to agree to disagree. You've made this about whether or not Joey Graham played as well as Jeremy Lin did and this was not my point. Whether or not you agree with that is completely irrelevant. My general point was that we could undoubtedly find someone else who played for a different team, played well for a period of 7 games and did not get as much notariety. You don't like Joey Graham? Great, pick someone else.

The point is that people cared more because he plays for New York, and that's why we are talking about signing him. He would not have had as much attention, and this added attention has brought this up as a topic of conversation, when really we should not be signing him.

I trust that Colangelo is enough of a professional that he would be fully aware of Lin's abilities/inabilities no matter what market he played in, whether it was New Orleans or New York.

[BallaBalla]

Sure, the NY media had something to do with it. But it's not the sole reason, or even the biggest reason. An unknown player single-handedly leading his shitty team to improbable wins, and doing so multiple times, is a big story on it's own merit.

Joey Graham was a bench player putting up double-doubles during his good "stretch". And if he didn't, the Raptors would've been perfectly fine without him. Graham was still the 5th option on the floor (at best). His 7-8 game run was literally meaningless, especially considering it came after 3.5 years of ineptitude. Management wasn't talking about re-signing Graham at all costs following that season, and there certainly weren't any other teams willing to make aggressive offers for his services.

Like I said, not an accurate comparison at all.

We'll have to agree to disagree. You've made this about whether or not Joey Graham played as well as Jeremy Lin did and this was not my point. Whether or not you agree with that is completely irrelevant. My general point was that we could undoubtedly find someone else who played for a different team, played well for a period of 7 games and did not get as much notariety. You don't like Joey Graham? Great, pick someone else.

The point is that people cared more because he plays for New York, and that's why we are talking about signing him. He would not have had as much attention, and this added attention has brought this up as a topic of conversation, when really we should not be signing him.

[Bendit]

Dang....it's always about the money, isn't it?

[Nilanka]

Well then he's not played long enough to be given $20M in the back end two years of a contract in that case.

Agreed. That's a lot of money to throw at an unproven player.

[Apollo]

No disrespect, but that sounds an awful lot like Weak Cop out.
They're the same age, so I'm not sure where you are getting this?

I could just as easily say that Bayless has an OBVIOUS upside in his Ball Distribution.

I was going to ask him to explain that statement too. I'm dieing the hear the answer because it's not often a player peaks at age 23. I can't think of many outside of Vince Carter. For Vince, it was a choice because he was so naturally gifted he didn't have to work hard. Bayless works hard.

Nobody needs to be penalized. I was just pointing out that Bayless has had more time to adjust to the NBA than Lin has.

Edit: Even if Lin was 35 years old, the above would be true.

Well then he's not played long enough to be given $20M in the back end two years of a contract in that case.

[Joey]

2. Scoring. His 55.2TS% isn't spectacular but it isn't terrible and is pretty much in line with a guy like Kyle Lowry. Irving was at 56% and Rubio was at ~48%.

Bayless had a higher TS%.

The other obvious difference is that Bayless is what he is. He's highly unlikely to improve much or at all. With Lin, there's an obvious upside if his 3PT shooting improves and his turnovers normalize.

No disrespect, but that sounds an awful lot like Weak Cop out.
They're the same age, so I'm not sure where you are getting this?

I could just as easily say that Bayless has an OBVIOUS upside if his Ball Distribution improves; and Jeremy Lin "is what he is", and will never improve his turnovers.

[Nilanka]

So Bayless should be penalized for being good enough to be selected in the lottery and play in the NBA at a young age? We should give Lin a pass because he wasn't drafted and got cut by like four teams? Does that make sense? They're the same age and Bayless has accomplished far more.

Lin is going to land a huge payday because he's popular with the fans and so the risk is worth it to some. If Bayless was that popular his price tag would be higher because demand would be higher. At the end of the day Lin is a large risk, Bayless is a small risk due to the price tags and production of each. I think the potential rewards are relatively similar.

Nobody needs to be penalized. I was just pointing out that Bayless has had more time to adjust to the NBA than Lin has.

Edit: Even if Lin was 35 years old, the above would be true.

[slaw]

Didn't everybody deal with that, in particular Bayless as he also had a new coach and new system to contend with as well?

The Bayless comparison is useful. The major differences I see between teh two players are: FTAs (Lin gets to the line far more often) and AST% (~31% for Bayless and 41% for Lin). Bayless' big advantage is that he's a much, much better 3PT shooter than Lin. As I noted above, the turnover issue is overblown as a result of a few high turnover games (the numbers normalized the more he played), the system he played in and his USG%.

The other obvious difference is that Bayless is what he is. He's highly unlikely to improve much or at all. With Lin, there's an obvious upside if his 3PT shooting improves and his turnovers normalize. Price is obviously an issue but I'd much rather roll the dice on Lin than on Bayless. Preferably, I'd get Deron Williams but beggars can't be choosers....

[Apollo]

Yes, but Bayless had 198 games of prior experience to fall back on. Lin had 29.

So Bayless should be penalized for being good enough to be selected in the lottery and play in the NBA at a young age? We should give Lin a pass because he wasn't drafted and got cut by like four teams? Does that make sense? They're the same age and Bayless has accomplished far more.

Lin is going to land a huge payday because he's popular with the fans and so the risk is worth it to some. If Bayless was that popular his price tag would be higher because demand would be higher. At the end of the day Lin is a large risk, Bayless is a small risk due to the price tags and production of each. I think the potential rewards are relatively similar.

[slaw]

A few things on Lin:

1. Assists/TOs. He was 6th among PGs with an AST% of 41%. He is not a pass-adverse PG. His TOV% is right in line with guys like Andre Miller, Rondo, Rubio. Steve Nash's TOV% is 6%age points higher. So, while the raw turnovers may have been high, when looked at in context they don't look nearly as bad considering the system he was playing in and his USG%.

2. Scoring. His 55.2TS% isn't spectacular but it isn't terrible and is pretty much in line with a guy like Kyle Lowry. Irving was at 56% and Rubio was at ~48%.

3. Sample Size. Yeah, it's small. But pedigree means less to me in basketball than it does in baseball, for example. In baseball, I'm far more inclined to believe in the power arm in A-ball than the plucky feel-good 15th rounder who tore up AA after 2 years in A-ball. In the NBA, the success of small-school players, lower first rounders, and given the traditionally late-blooming PG-spot, I'm not disinclined to believe his performance is sustainable. Based on his advanced numbers, I think expecting he can maintain a 15PPG/7AST line is realistic.

4. Raptors. The team desperately needs a perimeter player who can create his own shot and shots for others. Now, Lin isn't the elite superstar, top of the food chain scorer they need but he is both a shot creator and playmaker. The 3-PT shooting is poor but with his TS% it isn't a end of the world issue. Having said all of that, given that this team is light years away from being any good, I don't see Lin as worhwhile right now and certainly not at the dollars he will command.

[Bendit]

I dont envy Grunwald and the Knicks having to make the decision (basketball) to retain Lin and hope Melo and he will/can coexist. This past season was not pretty when the 2 were on the floor together. Lin of course was trying to get all involved including himself on the shot taking...but of course Melo was quite miffed at this. Will he pout again if Lin is still the PG? Will Lin have to change his game and be just as effective? One aspect of their coexistence is true...Lin has neither the cachet nor possibly the character to takeon Melo in the locker room to assert his control over the running the team as a pg in the L at this time.

So what are the poor Knicks to do? I have a feeling Melo will have a lot of say in the decision.

[Nilanka]

Didn't everybody deal with that, in particular Bayless as he also had a new coach and new system to contend with as well?

Yes, but Bayless had 198 games of prior experience to fall back on. Lin had 29.

[Apollo]

I acknowledged that it's a lot of turnovers.

But considering Lin's relative inexperience, combined with very little practice time afforded last year (in a condensed schedule), it's not far-fetched to assume he'll cut down his turnovers as his career progresses.

Didn't everybody deal with that, in particular Bayless as he also had a new coach and new system to contend with as well?

[Nilanka]

I still wouldn't want Sessions in Toronto.