The point guard comparison - effectiveness of either Jose or JB at the point

[Nilanka]

FANTASTIC post Torch. Kudos, sir.

I always had a sneaking suspicion this was the case, but now we can see the numbers back it up.

Unfortunately, this won't change anyones mind about Bayless.

lol, poor Joey

The only opinions that matter are Casey's and Colangelo's. Although we can never truly tell what they're thinking, they haven't given us any indication to believe they trust this team in Bayless' hands.

[Joey]

FANTASTIC post Torch. Kudos, sir.

I always had a sneaking suspicion this was the case, but now we can see the numbers back it up.

Unfortunately, this won't change anyones mind about Bayless.

[Garbo]

Props for taking the time to draw this up. I wish I could say that this changed my opinion of Bayless but now I'm reasoning that the sample size is just too small. However, in the same breath (recognizing how biased I'm being to Bayless), I'm embracing the stats about Davis and I'm liking him less and less.. They shouldn't alter my opinion of one guy and be disregarded as far as my opinion of another goes, but hey, the mind is a funny thing.
To sum up...
Still not a big fan of Bayless
Now, even less of a fan of Davis

[torch19]

Using data provided by nba.com on advanced statistics, I have managed to make careful observations on the effectiveness of several line-ups the Toronto Raptors showcased this past season (2011-2012). The purpose of my analysis is to use statistics in order to determine the more effective line-up - with either Jose or Jerryd Bayless as the PG.

There is no subjectivity involved in attempting this analysis, only facts, as presented by nba.com. However, I was inspired by a post comment from a different thread in which a user posted that Jose is that much better (see When could we contend for Mr. Nash thread)

The Toronto Raptors played a total of 43 different line-ups which do not include a line-up where Leandro Barbosa was showcased.

Parameters

- The statistics presented are per 48 minutes (points/48, assists/48, etc.)
- Offensive rating (Offrtg) is defined as points produced per 100 possessions
- Defensive rating (Defrtg) is therefore, points allowed per 100 possessions
- Net rating (Netrtg) is obtained by subtracting defrtg from offrtg, with a positive amount indicating better effectiveness as a line-up (in other words, point differential per 48 minutes)
- Rebound percentage (Reb%) is the percentage of available rebounds collected while on the floor

For the sake of effective comparison, I will only compare line-ups where the other four positions are constant. The only difference between the line-ups being compared is the presence or absence of Jose Calderon/Jerryd Bayless. Altogether there will be four line-ups for each point guard.

Other line-ups where either Jose or JB did not see floor time were excluded. The category in which the player sees an advantage over the other will be highlighted.


* First, the line-up that consists of DeMar DeRozan, James Johnson, Andrea Bargnani and Amir Johnson.

With Jose as the point guard: (played together in 15 games for a total of 93 mins)

Pts	Ast	TO	FG%	3PA	3P%	FTA	Reb%
97.5	28.4	12.4	49.7%	15.0	27.6%	19.6	48.6%

Offrtg	Defrtg	Netrtg
108.2	100.7	7.5

With Jerryd Bayless as point guard: (played together in 6 games with a total of 49 mins)

Pts	Ast	TO	FG%	3PA	3P%	FTA	Reb%
98.9	26.4	10.8	51.3%	10.8	27.3%	15.7	52.6%

Offrtg	Defrtg	Netrtg
113.4	101.4	12.1

The line-up in which Bayless is the point guard is more effective scoring the ball, but less effective on the defensive end. Overall, the net rating of JB’s line-up is higher than Calderon’s line-up by 4.6. This line-up also rebounds the ball better by 4%.


** Second, the line-up which features DeMar DeRozan, Andrea Bargnani, Aaron Gray and James Johnson. (Aaron Gray replaces Amir at the 5 spot)

With Jose Calderon as the point guard: (played together in 8 games totalling 90 mins)

Pts	Ast	TO	FG%	3PA	3P%	FTA	Reb%
94.4	26.4	8.0	45.4%	15.5	27.6%	12.3	43.9%

Offrtg	Defrtg	Netrtg
103.4	105.9	(2.4)

With Jerryd Bayless as the point guard: (played together in 3 games totalling 25 mins)

Pts	Ast	TO	FG%	3PA	3P%	FTA	Reb%
92.2	23.0	21.1	48.6%	13.4	57.1%	17.3	56.8%

Offrtg	Defrtg	Netrtg
102.2	90.3	11.9

Jerryd Bayless’ line-up is more effective defensively and rebounding but also turns the ball over at a higher rate while Jose’s line-up is slightly more effective scoring the ball. Jose’s line-up produces a higher rate of assists as well.


*** Third, the line-up which features DeMar DeRozan, Andrea Bargnani, Ed Davis and James Johnson. (Once again, a change at the 5 spot)

With Jose Calderon as the point guard: (played together in 5 games totalling 13 mins)

Pts	Ast	TO	FG%	3PA	3P%	FTA	Reb%
93.2	22.2	22.2	47.4%	25.8	28.6%	18.5	45.0%

Offrtg	Defrtg	Netrtg
91.9	127.7	(35.8)

With Jerryd Bayless as the point guard: (played together in 5 games totalling 17 mins)

Pts	Ast	TO	FG%	3PA	3P%	FTA	Reb%
70.6	16.9	36.7	47.6%	8.5	66.7%	16.9	59.3%

Offrtg	Defrtg	Netrtg
74.3	101.4	(27.1)

Statistics show that both line-ups are not effective (Ed Davis effect). However, Jose’s line-up is more effective scoring the ball while Jerryd’s line-up is more effective defensively. Jose’s line-up average more assists per 48 while JB’s line-up rebounds better.


**** Next, the line-up which features DeMar DeRozan, James Johnson, Amir Johnson and Ed Davis. (no Andrea Bargnani for this line-up)

With Jose Calderon as the point guard: (played together in 14 games totalling 53 mins)

Pts	Ast	TO	FG%	3PA	3P%	FTA	Reb%
86.0	21.7	15.4	44.2%	10.0	27.3%	18.1	45.5%

Offrtg	Defrtg	Netrtg
91.5	107.3	(15.8)

With Jerryd Bayless as the point guard: (played together in 4 games totalling 12 mins)

Pts	Ast	TO	FG%	3PA	3P%	FTA	Reb%[/B]
76.0	20.0	20.0	38.1%	16.0	0.0%	12.0	60.0%

Offrtg	Defrtg	Netrtg
95.1	110.9	(25.8)

Once again, both line-ups are not effective (Andrea Bargnani effect). However, this one is a landslide for Jose’s line-up, with exception to rebounding.

Overall

With exception to the last match-up, statistics show that a line-up with Jerryd Bayless as the point guard is more effective than a line-up with Jose Calderon as the point guard (better point differential). Although these statistics do not take into account situational match-ups, it is still a good indication on how well the team performs with either man as the quarterback. This analysis also includes a small sample size which can be deterrent to a more accurate conclusion.

Since these line-ups taken into account are more or less considered the “core group” of the Toronto Raptors moving forward, it is very refreshing to see the difference in statistics when the point guard switches.

- All four line-ups with Bayless as the point guard indicate higher rebounding percentage (not really a surprise)
- The offensive rating in 3 out of 4 match-ups favours well for Jose (not a surprise)
- More assists were generated in all 4 match-ups when Jose is the point guard (not a surprise)
- 3 out of 4 match-ups indicate better point differential in favour of Jerryd Bayless (this is a surprise)
- A line-up with Jose Calderon usually turns the ball less than JB’s similar line-up (no surprise here, it’s what Jose is known for)
- JB’s line-up shoots at a higher field goal percentage (ehh)
- Jose’s line-up gets to the free throw line at a higher rate (I’m not sure what this indicates in this situation, except perhaps that with Jose as PG, others are more confident and excited to attack the basket)
- Defensive ratings as well as 3 point percentage balance out to 2 match ups each (although JB’s line-up nearly had a 3rd victory)
- Ed Davis had a significant negative effect in these featured line-ups
- Andrea Bargnani, on the other hand, was very effective

The point differential in the first match-up really catches my attention, with the advantage going to Jerryd Bayless. Why? Because Toronto’s main “core guys” match-up well against opponents, whether it be Jose or JB at the point.

So, there it is. The match-up between Jerryd Bayless and Jose Calderon with similar line-ups. I hope this changes some people’s perception on Jerryd Bayless. He seems to be getting a lot of heat when actually, statistics show that his effect is rather positive on the line-up.