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Hollinger's Big Board, PER

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  • #16
    rus wrote: View Post
    PER ratings, data from past drafts and career paths that followed,....basically the world's most complicated formula....that, and what he says in the first paragraph on the op
    Yeah, I see that now. But not a pure calculated PER, but some wack projected PER. So basically voodoo. I doubt any statistical model that rates Drummond, who may have potential, but is not at the moment a very good basketball player, higher that Lillard, who may lack upside, but is a very good player right now. Wroten is higher than Lillard. #fail


    In any case, I hope GMs take this very seriously, and Lillard drops to us.
    Last edited by Quirk; Tue Jun 19th, 2012, 11:01 AM.

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    • #17
      Seeten wrote: View Post
      Its been surprisingly correct year after year
      I doubt this. Does he provide any proof?

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      • #18
        this seems like a ridiculous big board, when comparing it with mocks...but this guy isn't an idiot. I like Nicholson at 38, but I think he is a first rounder, same with Moultrie.
        lots of surprises in the lottery, how do all the players somehow connected to the Raps fall past them...Lillard, Barnes, Beal. and I really don't understand Q Miller at 6...how has his pre tourney draft stock the same and PJ3 dropped like 20+ spots?? They were equally unimpressive in the tourney...Draymond Green ahead of J Lamb?? Food for thought i guess

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        • #19
          Quirk wrote: View Post
          I doubt this. Does he provide any proof?
          From a 2009 article....The best year(2006) and worst year(2008), judge for yourself.
          2006

          Player Projected PER Order Picked Among Collegians
          Rudy Gay 15.19 7
          Rajon Rondo 14.65 16
          Shawne Williams 14.64 13
          Brandon Roy 13.88 5
          Tyrus Thomas 13.44 3
          LaMarcus Aldridge 13.01 1
          Adam Morrison 12.82 2
          Hilton Armstrong 12.41 9
          Ronnie Brewer 12.24 10
          Kyle Lowry 12.13 19
          Shelden Williams 12.03 4
          Marcus Williams 12.00 17
          * Top 10 drafted collegians not in Rater's top 12: Randy Foye, Patrick O'Bryant, J.J. Redick

          This is arguably the Rater's best draft: It nailed five of its top six picks with only the Shawne Williams placement at No. 3 derailing it. That's a big improvement on what really happened on draft day, when Adam Morrison, Shelden Williams, Randy Foye, Patrick O'Bryant and J.J. Redick were five of the top 10 collegians taken. Only Morrison got into Draft Rater's top 10, and he was seventh rather than second.

          2008

          Player Projected PER Order Picked Among Collegians
          Kevin Love 14.62 5
          Michael Beasley 14.32 2
          Joe Alexander 13.48 8
          Mario Chalmers 13.01 29
          George Hill 12.77 23
          Chris Douglas-Rob 12.46 33
          Derrick Rose 12.36 1
          Roy Hibbert 12.30 17
          Darrell Arthur 12.17 24
          Ryan Anderson 12.14 20
          Marreese Speights12.11 16
          Darnell Jackson 12.11 42
          * Top 10 drafted collegians not in Rater's top 12: O.J. Mayo, Russell Westbrook, D.J. Augustin, Eric Gordon, Brook Lopez

          2008 saw, by far, the Draft Rater's most radical departure from the actual draft, and also seems likely to go down as the Rater's worst overall season. Love led all rookies in PER and Beasley was fourth among '08 collegians, so the top two picks are solid. After that, it's a mess. One-and-done freshmen Derrick Rose, O.J. Mayo, Anthony Randolph and Eric Gordon all ranked too low, as did solid rookies Brook Lopez and Russell Westbrook.

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          • #20
            Quirk wrote: View Post
            I doubt this. Does he provide any proof?
            From a 2009 article....The best year(2006) and worst year(2008), judge for yourself.
            2006

            Player Projected PER Order Picked Among Collegians
            Rudy Gay 15.19 7
            Rajon Rondo 14.65 16
            Shawne Williams14.64 13
            Brandon Roy 13.88 5
            Tyrus Thomas 13.44 3
            LaMarcus Aldridge 13.01 1
            Adam Morrison 12.82 2
            Hilton Armstrong 12.41 9
            Ronnie Brewer 12.24 10
            Kyle Lowry 12.13 19
            Shelden Williams 12.03 4
            Marcus Williams 12.00 17
            * Top 10 drafted collegians not in Rater's top 12: Randy Foye, Patrick O'Bryant, J.J. Redick

            This is arguably the Rater's best draft: It nailed five of its top six picks with only the Shawne Williams placement at No. 3 derailing it. That's a big improvement on what really happened on draft day, when Adam Morrison, Shelden Williams, Randy Foye, Patrick O'Bryant and J.J. Redick were five of the top 10 collegians taken. Only Morrison got into Draft Rater's top 10, and he was seventh rather than second.

            2008

            Player Projected PER Order Picked Among Collegians
            Kevin Love 14.62 5
            Michael Beasley 14.32 2
            Joe Alexander 13.48 8
            Mario Chalmers 13.01 29
            George Hill 12.77 23
            Chris Douglas-Rob12.46 33
            Derrick Rose 12.36 1
            Roy Hibbert 12.30 17
            Darrell Arthur 12.17 24
            Ryan Anderson 12.14 20
            Marreese Speights12.11 16
            Darnell Jackson 12.11 42
            * Top 10 drafted collegians not in Rater's top 12: O.J. Mayo, Russell Westbrook, D.J. Augustin, Eric Gordon, Brook Lopez

            2008 saw, by far, the Draft Rater's most radical departure from the actual draft, and also seems likely to go down as the Rater's worst overall season. Love led all rookies in PER and Beasley was fourth among '08 collegians, so the top two picks are solid. After that, it's a mess. One-and-done freshmen Derrick Rose, O.J. Mayo, Anthony Randolph and Eric Gordon all ranked too low, as did solid rookies Brook Lopez and Russell Westbrook.
            Last edited by rus; Tue Jun 19th, 2012, 11:27 AM.

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            • #21
              Yeah, his "best" predicted Shawne Williams would be better than Brandon Roy, and predicted that Sheldon Williams and Marcus Williams where good NBA Players. Does his magic formula award points for being called "Williams?"

              There is no way half of the guys rated above Lillard will be as good as him.

              If Marcus Teague turns out better than Damian Lillard I'll eat my hat and join a UFO cult.

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              • #22
                Quirk wrote: View Post
                Yeah, I see that now. But not a pure calculated PER, but some wack projected PER. So basically voodoo. I doubt any statistical model that rates Drummond, who may have potential, but is not at the moment a very good basketball player, higher that Lillard, who may lack upside, but is a very good player right now. Wroten is higher than Lillard. #fail


                In any case, I hope GMs take this very seriously, and Lillard drops to us.
                How would you compare the freshman season of Lillard and Drummond, though? Lillard had a pretty average freshman year at a low-ranked school in a fairly non-competitive conference. As has been pointed out, he is of the same vintage as DeRozan and Davis. Neither of them would be considered stars at this point, but they would probably have been pretty dominant by their fourth year of college.

                I am, in general, a big fan of ratings that take into account the age and development status of a player. Between 18 and 22, players can improve dramatically physically, in skills and in their understanding of the game.

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                • #23
                  Mediumcore wrote: View Post
                  Terrence Jones with the 8th pick would fill a need the Raptors have at SF.
                  Not really, his game is strikingly similar to JJ's. But maybe with more potential.

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                  • #24
                    Bendit wrote: View Post
                    Here is Hollinger's 2010 ratings and draft board....not too bad actually in retrospect...

                    http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/pos...ng-draft-rater
                    Really? Daniel Orton at 14th? That's a whack load off.

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                    • #25
                      rus wrote: View Post
                      From a 2009 article....The best year(2006) and worst year(2008), judge for yourself.
                      2006

                      Player Projected PER Order Picked Among Collegians
                      Rudy Gay 15.19 7
                      Rajon Rondo 14.65 16
                      Shawne Williams14.64 13
                      Brandon Roy 13.88 5
                      Tyrus Thomas 13.44 3
                      LaMarcus Aldridge 13.01 1
                      Adam Morrison 12.82 2
                      Hilton Armstrong 12.41 9
                      Ronnie Brewer 12.24 10
                      Kyle Lowry 12.13 19
                      Shelden Williams 12.03 4
                      Marcus Williams 12.00 17
                      * Top 10 drafted collegians not in Rater's top 12: Randy Foye, Patrick O'Bryant, J.J. Redick

                      This is arguably the Rater's best draft: It nailed five of its top six picks with only the Shawne Williams placement at No. 3 derailing it. That's a big improvement on what really happened on draft day, when Adam Morrison, Shelden Williams, Randy Foye, Patrick O'Bryant and J.J. Redick were five of the top 10 collegians taken. Only Morrison got into Draft Rater's top 10, and he was seventh rather than second.

                      2008

                      Player Projected PER Order Picked Among Collegians
                      Kevin Love 14.62 5
                      Michael Beasley 14.32 2
                      Joe Alexander 13.48 8
                      Mario Chalmers 13.01 29
                      George Hill 12.77 23
                      Chris Douglas-Rob12.46 33
                      Derrick Rose 12.36 1
                      Roy Hibbert 12.30 17
                      Darrell Arthur 12.17 24
                      Ryan Anderson 12.14 20
                      Marreese Speights12.11 16
                      Darnell Jackson 12.11 42
                      * Top 10 drafted collegians not in Rater's top 12: O.J. Mayo, Russell Westbrook, D.J. Augustin, Eric Gordon, Brook Lopez

                      2008 saw, by far, the Draft Rater's most radical departure from the actual draft, and also seems likely to go down as the Rater's worst overall season. Love led all rookies in PER and Beasley was fourth among '08 collegians, so the top two picks are solid. After that, it's a mess. One-and-done freshmen Derrick Rose, O.J. Mayo, Anthony Randolph and Eric Gordon all ranked too low, as did solid rookies Brook Lopez and Russell Westbrook.

                      At the same time, he does a great job of picking the guys who are going to be steals. For example, Kevin Love going in the top 2 or 3 seems like a given at this point, and after you look at their careers depending on how D-rose comes back, Love might be a better pick.

                      If you put that into context with Waiters, and couple that with what everyone else is saying about him, he looks like a steal.

                      It also makes you think about Lilard and how low he was ranked i.e. maybe that's a big mistake

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                      • #26
                        I think some are mistaking he's and worst for accuracy rating players and and the actual rating/performances of those players. Unless I am making big money betting on the resultant draft order I couldn't care less how accurate a rating system is to picks as it makes it ultimately useless. A super-complicated in depth calculation SHOULD be accurate to show the players effectiveness to come.
                        In reality this crap is the same crapshoot the GMs are taking and therefore just fodder for forum banter.

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                        • #27
                          Hollinger's Big Board has been a much better predictor of NBA performance than the actual order the players were drafted in for many years. Hollinger has tweaked the process over the years, including Euro players, and improved its efficiency imo.

                          Having said that, I don't think BC pays much attention to it, drafting low rated players like Derozan and Davis.

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                          • #28
                            Tesla wrote: View Post
                            Not really, his game is strikingly similar to JJ's. But maybe with more potential.
                            There isn't anything wrong with JJ's game. It's just you need someone at that position that can do what he does only better....enter Terrence Jones. Better shooter, better handles, better distributor, and I think will be a better rebounder.

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                            • #29
                              Maleko wrote: View Post
                              Really? Daniel Orton at 14th? That's a whack load off.
                              I think I said "not too bad". I dont think anyone including the author is guaranteeing astounding matchups to what finally shakes out. Besides drafting a centre to play behind Dwight H. is not a good career beginning for the draftee.

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                              • #30
                                it sounds like he'll have a full time job soon!
                                @sweatpantsjer

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