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  • #76
    joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
    While Soft Euro and I rarely disagree, this will be one of those times; I'm with you on this Craiger.

    I think James Johnson has shown to be, in my opinion, one of the premier wing defenders in the League.
    Contrary to what has been stated in here, I do not recall him being a huge gambler on defense, nor do I recall him straying from him man, into the key, just to block a shot. And the more experience he gains, the better he will be at being able to read plays, and be even more efficient with his defense. He's still young.
    Joey, how can you?

    Let's use some more and other stats, from Synergysports (kind of my pet stat). To be an elite individual defender he should be in the category of people on the nba all defensive teams in regards to points per possession (on defense). He isn't even close.

    James Johnson is at 0,91. Compare that to Lebron at 0,83; Deng at 0,83; Tony Allen at 0,8; Iguodala at 0,8. As I said, he's not even close.

    (Btw, Kleiza is here at 0,72. Better chalk that one largely up to small sample size for now.)

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    • #77
      Craiger wrote: View Post
      well if thats the case than no stat, no watching or no interpretation can accurately judge how good or bad a player is. But I don't think thats the case at all.
      I do think that is exactly the case; I don't think you can say accurately how good or bad a player is; there are many things to consider and used in combination one can make good arguments for or against the value of a player.

      As for 'noise', well thats an argument that can be made for anything. How much 'noise' in incorporated in watching a game? For example, when we watch Amir get a rebound, did we see Jose boxing out his man or not boxing him out? When Amir misses the rebound to his man did we see how he was positioned to help a teammate on D? Statistics, by using a large sample, leave that noise to a minimum. And by comparing against your own teammates, a chunk of that noise is relatively even.
      This is actually a nice example of how stats can be misleading and how some formulas miss-use stats. For instance, Zach Randolph (less so these days than a couple of years ago I think) is known for consequently refusing to give help in situations where doing so would mean leaving his superior rebounding position he fought his man for. He didn't want to give up the chance to get the rebound. This statpadding didn't help the team, made him a worse player, but helped out on a lot of stats.

      A problem with some of these boxscore related 'advanced' stats is for example that they see the rebound as getting the possession instead of the defensive play which made the player miss the shot in the first place (or even worse, a lot of times players just miss even though there isn't good defense); noise, noise, noise.

      Plus defensive win share and adjusted defensive +/- are saying something very similar aswell.
      Aren't these stats very similar? As far as I know (but I'm not an expert on it) defensive win shares use defensive ratings. If this is the case it's hard to use these stats to support a stat on which they are (at least partly) based as they will of course paint the same picture.
      Last edited by Soft Euro; Mon Jul 9th, 2012, 09:03 PM.

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      • #78
        i think the decision on jj was made in end of the year interviews. all of us are going on pure speculation and whether or not he is even here in october remains to be seen but to me a 20 something kid been sitting on the bench for 3 years gets a shot and does well. feels he finally made it and then is told he is a bench player, which to me he is, during the season they had a spat which everyone handled extremely well. however everyones viewpoints remained the same. in the year end interview dc and bc would have explained what they saw in him and what they wanted from him. he might not of wanted the same thing.

        if jj is a starter in this league it will have to be on a rebuilding team where he might get a chance to grow.

        i think a decision like this would normally come down to klieza or jj, like ed or amir, and would usually be simply decided by jj being younger and cheaper however the team has a lot of hope invested in bigv and will try to make him as comfortable as possible. klieza has shown in the past that without proper playing time he gets disgruntled, he was pretty unhappy in denver, and i would think that his offensive advantage would put him in the game before jj.

        so now a kid who thought he broke out and proved himself is relegated to matchup playing time and 3rd string sf minutes. to me jj probably explained what he wanted to achieve and happen this year and the rest of his career and it might not be what toronto wants from jj so both parties are ready to move on.

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        • #79
          Soft Euro wrote: View Post
          This is actually a nice example of how stats can be misleading and how some formulas miss-use stats. For instance, Zach Randolph (less so these days than a couple of years ago I think) is known for consequently refusing to give help in situations where doing so would mean leaving his superior rebounding position he fought his man for. He didn't want to give up the chance to get the rebound. This statpadding didn't help the team, made him a worse player, but helped out on a lot of stats.

          that 'stat padding' doesn't matter to defense rating. As it does not matter who scored or who didn't. Who rebounded and who didn't. Just how many points the team (or the opposition) scored with him on the floor.

          they see the rebound as getting the possession instead of the defensive play which made the player miss the shot in the first place (or even worse, a lot of times players just miss even though there isn't good defense
          I'm not sure what you are getting at here. The numbers I listed above don't care about this at all. This is more of a WP vs PER thing.


          I also think you missed my point on the 'noise' issue. There is just as much noise, if not more, in watching games.

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          • #80
            i would definitely probably shed a tear if JJ was traded.

            But we do a need another backup C. It'd also be grand if BC could package up all these extra players for one good player - although i'm sure its a tough sell to receive mutiple bench guys to give up one starter.
            in masai we trust

            water covers 98% of the earth, Mitchell Robinson covers the other 2%

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            • #81
              Craiger wrote: View Post
              that 'stat padding' doesn't matter to defense rating. As it does not matter who scored or who didn't. Who rebounded and who didn't. Just how many points the team (or the opposition) scored with him on the floor.



              I'm not sure what you are getting at here. The numbers I listed above don't care about this at all. This is more of a WP vs PER thing.


              I also think you missed my point on the 'noise' issue. There is just as much noise, if not more, in watching games.
              I get your point, maybe I was rambling a bit.

              I Agree that there is just as much noise, if not more, in watching games. That's why I am of the opinion that there is no way to accurately judge how good or bad a player is. We can only make arguments based on stats or what we've seen. For a good argument you need more than one type of stat. For instance, if Johnson did wel on Defensive rating as well as situational stats I'd be much more inclined to agree (or at least not argue with) the statement that he is a very good defender. In his case, different stats contradict each other.

              I started rambling about boxscore stats (and their inclusion in wp and such) because of your statement that you think there are stats that can accurately judge how good or bad a player is. I already said why I didn't think Defensive Rating (and related stats) doesn't qualify and thought I'd mention a few reasons why other types of stats don't qualify in my opinion as well.

              And that's about it.

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              • #82
                Matt52 wrote: View Post
                For their summer league roster.
                Does that mean Machado has a guaranteed contract?
                I would think being a 3rd PG & ability to learn from 2 diff PGs could be beneficial. Added advantage -if Jose is gone next year he is backup.

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                • #83
                  Mapko wrote: View Post
                  Does that mean Machado has a guaranteed contract?
                  I would think being a 3rd PG & ability to learn from 2 diff PGs could be beneficial. Added advantage -if Jose is gone next year he is backup.
                  No guaranteed contract based on past undrafted rookie/summer league contracts.

                  I am sure that Houston will be option 1 for him though.

                  However, if Houston decides they do not like what they see (or whatever reason) he would be available. Actually he is available anyways it is just usually a summer league player has the best chance to crack the NBA roster of the team he played with.

                  If Toronto (or another team) were really impressed by his performance, they could attempt to outbid Houston.

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                  • #84
                    A trade will be made...but don't be surprised if this is the team we enter training camp with. We can't package up our assets, until teams figure out what they are doing first.

                    I mean theoretically we could pull a NJ and NY, and trade our extra assests for overrated all-stars, but outside of Dwight Howard there is none on the market. This team isn't in win now mode...
                    -"You canít run from me. I mean, my heart donít bleed Kool-Aid."
                    -"ďI ainít no diva! I donít have no blond hair, red hair. Iím Reggie Evans.Ē

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                    • #85
                      Raptorsss wrote: View Post
                      A trade will be made...but don't be surprised if this is the team we enter training camp with. We can't package up our assets, until teams figure out what they are doing first.

                      I mean theoretically we could pull a NJ and NY, and trade our extra assests for overrated all-stars, but outside of Dwight Howard there is none on the market. This team isn't in win now mode...
                      If a bunch of our expendable 2nd tier assets (ie: Calderon, Bayless, JJ, Amir/Davis, DeRozan) could be lumped together in a trade that ultimately landed a player like Rudy Gay, would you consider that to be "win now mode"?

                      He'll only be 26 next season, so he could conceivably have 5-7 solid years as an integral part of the Raptors young core. Yes he has a large contract and is probably even a little overpaid, but he'd be a huge upgrade over any of the 5 wings currently on the roster (DD, JJ, Kleiza, Ross, Fields). For the record, Gay's probably about the only player (from rumors) that I'd consider trading DD for. To me, that's the sort of trade that kickstarts the rebuilding process, while still keeping the long-term sustainablity of the franchise in mind (I'm only using Gay as an example, given all the rumors about him over the past month).

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