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Early look at the ROY chances for the Raptors rookies...

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  • Papa Burgundy
    replied
    My top 5, in order:

    Brad Beal
    Brow
    JV
    TRob
    Lillard

    Leave a comment:


  • Vykis
    replied
    Kadazzle wrote: View Post
    I think it's a stretch for Lillard or JV to get ROY. Typically it goes to the scorers, and unless JV can does some crazy things defensively/on the boards or Lillard dishes out some crazy assists, they ain't gonna win it. I see JV putting up numbers around the 6/7 range. Anthony Davis and Beal are my best bets, I can see Beal scoring 14+ with the touches he's sure to get, and Davis has the hype and the free-reign to let his talent loose (I can see the voters weighing his defensive contributions more than the average pick because of his hype towards ROY). Though I am afraid of Davis' size (only Howard, Bogut and Pekovic recently provided their teams good value in their first season, and they're all big boys) and how he and Ryan Anderson fit together, I believe Davis will get enough looks on the fast break, alley-oops, and putbacks to give him enough PPG to give him a good shot for ROY. Harrison Barnes might not even start, and if he does, he may not get many touches as the #1 and #2 scoring options are cemented in for GS. MKG and Thomas Robinson are odd-balls, they could surprise, but I believe they're more energy players who won't put up first-year numbers (though I like Robinson's future prospects playing alongside Cousins).
    Pekovic is a NBA sophmore, he just exploded in his second season a la Jeremy Lin. And Lillard is a big time scorer so I see him leading the rookies in PPG

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  • Kadazzle
    replied
    I think it's a stretch for Lillard or JV to get ROY. Typically it goes to the scorers, and unless JV can does some crazy things defensively/on the boards or Lillard dishes out some crazy assists, they ain't gonna win it. I see JV putting up numbers around the 6/7 range. Anthony Davis and Beal are my best bets, I can see Beal scoring 14+ with the touches he's sure to get, and Davis has the hype and the free-reign to let his talent loose (I can see the voters weighing his defensive contributions more than the average pick because of his hype towards ROY). Though I am afraid of Davis' size (only Howard, Bogut and Pekovic recently provided their teams good value in their first season, and they're all big boys) and how he and Ryan Anderson fit together, I believe Davis will get enough looks on the fast break, alley-oops, and putbacks to give him enough PPG to give him a good shot for ROY. Harrison Barnes might not even start, and if he does, he may not get many touches as the #1 and #2 scoring options are cemented in for GS. MKG and Thomas Robinson are odd-balls, they could surprise, but I believe they're more energy players who won't put up first-year numbers (though I like Robinson's future prospects playing alongside Cousins).

    Leave a comment:


  • mountio
    replied
    Nilanka wrote: View Post
    Don't worry, Chuck Swirsky will still vote for Bargnani...
    time to let that go .. especially when AB would have finished 2nd in the voting easily even if Chuck had not voted him in at all ..

    Leave a comment:


  • mountio
    replied
    planetmars wrote: View Post
    I'd love to see a Raptor be considered for ROY.. but the NBA is going to be pumping "the brow" hard core. Davis is going to be their new poster child and as such they will do everything to market the kid and turn him into the next best thing (deservedly or not).

    That marketing power will be hard to over come for any of the other rooks. I think it can be done if Davis ends up being mediocre, but the fact that he was already on the USA squad has already given him a huge head start.
    This is the key .. he will really have to play bad not to win it. The marketing machine will be all over his intangibles, even if his stats are ok. Plus, he will likely get the most minutes of any rook out there .. so that helps a lot. JV's biggest problem (in general and in getting ROY votes) is that he wont see enough minutes due to foul trouble...

    Leave a comment:


  • 10 000 Hours
    replied
    Here are Okafor's stats from when he won ROY in 04-05:

    10.9 boards, 0.9 assists, 0.447 fg%, 0.8 steals, 1.7 blocks and 15.1 points all in 35.1 minutes per game.


    Amare's stats from when he won in 02-03:

    8.8 boards, 1.0 assists, 0.472 fg%, 0.8 steals, 1.1 blocks and 13.5 points in 31.3 minutes per game.


    There have been plenty of other bigs who've won the ROY, but I didn't look at stats before Tim Duncan won (his numbers were insane!). If we were to use Okafor and Amare as a bare minimum on what it would take for JV to have a legitimate shot at winning ROY, it seems to me that all it would take is for Jonas to be able to stay on the floor.

    I think if he get 30+ minutes a night, the only thing stopping him from being in the top 3 rookies is if other rookies step up majorly and accumulate awesome stats ala Duncan when he was a rook.

    In the end, fouls and improved play by any of the other current Raptor bigs could play a factor into Jonas' minutes.

    Leave a comment:


  • white men can't jump
    replied
    I also think Beal or Barnes have the best shot after that. I'm not sold on Lillard. He has to run an offense, something he struggled to do in shitty NCAA ball. Beal and Barnes could both get a decent amount of opportunity, especially Beal, being a shooter on a team that should run a lot of pick n roll with Wall and Nene.

    Leave a comment:


  • white men can't jump
    replied
    I just can't see him getting it. Playing time is such a huge factor, and Davis is going to get a lot more, especially early on. By the time Jonas starts being able to play 25-30 minutes (if he gets there this season), I think Davis will have it locked up.

    Leave a comment:


  • Apollo
    replied
    Letter N wrote: View Post
    I HATE when people say this, it's never been the case where a rookie from Europe has come in and dominated from day one, no matter how many washed up and non-NBA caliber men they've played against.

    They said the same bullshit "he's played against men" line for Andrea and Darko and Tskikivilli and Lampe and Nowitzki and Yi and everyone else you wanna name who made it and who didn't. They all suck compared to NCAA guys in the first year(s) because it's a big transition and the game isn't the same.
    You missed a key point here. JV is not a finesse player and who said anything about "dominating"? Holster that gun there partner.
    Last edited by Apollo; Wed Aug 15th, 2012, 04:13 PM. Reason: iphone

    Leave a comment:


  • ceez
    replied
    they do to a certain degree, basically just lumping them in as C, F or G.

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  • planetmars
    replied
    ROY for either JV or Ross will be tough.. but I'm hoping that they at least get consideration for the all rookie team and the rookie/sophomore all-star game.

    I don't believe they decide the all rookie team based on position. So even with competition (Waiters/Beal/etc for Ross, Davis/Drummond/etc for JV) they should both have a chance of making the team (or the game).

    Leave a comment:


  • ReubenJRD
    replied
    I think JV will be in the top in terms of the rookie ladder, but not a consideration for ROY.

    Top 3 rookies will go...

    Davis, Lillard, Beal.

    Leave a comment:


  • ebrian
    replied
    Apollo wrote: View Post
    Not in terms of raw talent but keep in mind JV has been defending grown men while Anthony Davis has been defending kids.
    What matters is this: By the end of this season, it will look like Davis has been defending kids all season, while JV will look like he's been defending grown men.

    Davis will be a runaway leader for ROY. JV will not come close. I'm not sure JV will even win ROY for the Raptors.

    Leave a comment:


  • Letter N
    replied
    Apollo wrote: View Post
    Not in terms of raw talent but keep in mind JV has been defending grown men while Anthony Davis has been defending kids.
    I HATE when people say this, it's never been the case where a rookie from Europe has come in and dominated from day one, no matter how many washed up and non-NBA caliber men they've played against.

    They said the same bullshit "he's played against men" line for Andrea and Darko and Tskikivilli and Lampe and Nowitzki and Yi and everyone else you wanna name who made it and who didn't. They all suck compared to NCAA guys in the first year(s) because it's a big transition and the game isn't the same.

    Leave a comment:


  • Nilanka
    replied
    Plus at this stage in his career, a gentle breeze could push Davis out of the blocks...

    Leave a comment:

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