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Can we put to rest this nonsense about Landry Fields being overpaid?

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  • #16
    slaw wrote: View Post
    As for Fields himself, I do think he needs to prove his worth. He was not good last year.
    Says who? Many analysts rate his year last year very highly, even though not as good as his 1st It's plainly your opinion that he was not good last year. WP rates him well, and I'd imagine Rucker's method does too, since they targeted him.

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    • #17
      Craiger wrote: View Post
      I personally don't think one should ever just conclude 'since we don't know everything we should just be content'.
      More banality. Nobody is saying that. We are content because we like the player, for the reasons given.

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      • #18
        Craiger wrote: View Post
        Sure you'll never know every individual opportunity cost. But we do know some, and we can have an idea about others and can compare that, at the very least, in general terms.

        I personally don't think one should ever just conclude 'since we don't know everything we should just be content'. Asking questioning about decisions, whether we agree with them or not, is how one creates an informed opinion. If not then its nothing more than a measure of blind faith.
        I agree completely. It's not human nature just to accept something for face value and many people would continue to question even after having been given all the facts. I think it's good to remember to point out the financial implications of various moves - those made, not made, rumored to be potentially made and those hoped to be made - and I think RR posters are pretty proficient in remembering to do so, for the most part.

        It makes sense then how there can be quite a difference of opinions regarding the Fields signing, even without evaluating Fields himself as a player. Some posters believe that Fields was the best value acquisition BC could have made this offseason, while others fear he was overpaid, thus limiting what subsequent moves can potentially be made during the 3 years of his contract. It makes sense why we'll never have agreement, since we'll never truly know what other options were being considered this past offseason, let alone what other opportunities might present themselves over the next three seasons (which may or may not be able to happen, in the wake of signing Fields).

        I guess that sums up my feelings towards BC. I trust that he was thorough in his talent evaluation of all potential targest and decided that Fields was the best option, given his talent/position/salary/overall fit with the Raptors roster. However, I definitely don't have blind faith in him... I support him, especially in respect to the Fields signing, but I will always question/analyze/discuss/debate the merits of every move he makes.
        Last edited by CalgaryRapsFan; Mon Oct 1st, 2012, 04:28 PM.

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        • #19
          Not sure if this adds to the discussion but I'll take a stab.

          Using TheNBAGeek.com:
          Fields was good to produce 11.6 wins per 48 minutes in his rookie year and 6.7 wins per 48 minutes in his second year. If we make the assumption that he is neither as good as his rookie year and as bad as last year, then lets average it and come up with 9.15 wins.

          Using Basketball-Reference.com:
          Fields was good to produce 5.3 wins in his rookie year and 3.4 wins in his second year. Same assumption as above and we come up with 4.75 wins.


          Another assumption coming: Raps are aiming for 41 wins (and playoffs at 8 seed) and the cost of that win is $1.75.

          Using TheNBAGeek.com and 9.15 wins produced he 'should' be earning $16M.
          Using Basketball-Reference.com and 4.75 wins produced he 'should' be earning $8.3M.



          No matter how you cut it the man at $6.23M per year (as his salary cap hit, he is getting paid $5M, $5M, $8.7M) he is a bargain!




          ***As an aside, does anyone know the difference between the WS stats at Basketball-Reference.com and TheNBAGeek.com??***

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          • #20
            Matt52 wrote: View Post
            ***As an aside, does anyone know the difference between the WS stats at Basketball-Reference.com and TheNBAGeek.com??***
            They're two completely different stats. B-R's Win Shares are based on Dean Oliver's work in Basketball on Paper, and you can get more info on how they're derived here. Wins Produced are Dave Berri's work in The Wages of Wins, and you can get more info on how they're calculated here.

            The biggest difference is that Oliver believes in the value of shot creation (though to a lesser extent than, say, Hollinger), while Berri doesn't believe in it at all; in Berri's system, shooting at anything less than average efficiency counts against you, while Oliver's system gives a bit more of a break to high usage guys.

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            • #21
              I'm assuming that using reverse retrograde statistical analysis, we could positively correlate Fields contribution to wins with tsunami events.

              In other words, "Catch the Wave!"

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              • #22
                tkfu wrote: View Post
                They're two completely different stats. B-R's Win Shares are based on Dean Oliver's work in Basketball on Paper, and you can get more info on how they're derived here. Wins Produced are Dave Berri's work in The Wages of Wins, and you can get more info on how they're calculated here.

                The biggest difference is that Oliver believes in the value of shot creation (though to a lesser extent than, say, Hollinger), while Berri doesn't believe in it at all; in Berri's system, shooting at anything less than average efficiency counts against you, while Oliver's system gives a bit more of a break to high usage guys.
                Cool... thanks alot!

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                • #23
                  Just because the posters on this forum homerishly over value Landry's on court ability doesn't mean that every guy that writes about ball for a living is wrong about the contract.

                  Didn't we all see him squat down and take a big big deuce in the playoffs last year? He was a zero. He lost the trust of this coach and teammates in the same way that a nightime highway driver does not trust a deer to move out of the way of the car. He was 100% overwhelmed by the moment in a first round playoff series, to the point that his minutes were reduced despite a season-ending injury to Shumpert. We can spend all day agruing about his average-at-best credentials according to basketball reference or his somewhat encouraging rookie campaign pre-melo, but the truth is that the guy has a big moment to prove himself and all he proved as that he's a below average player unworthy of playoff minutes in the NBA.

                  So we all saw proof in the playoffs that he's a below average player. Yet he's got a contact that pays him an above average salary. Translation: If you don't think he's overpaid, you're wearing homer glasses. We can still hold out hope the he'll contribute something meaningful or progress as a player, but only a Raptors employee or fan would are that he is not overpaid at the number we gave him. For crying out loud, the goddamn Knicks didn't match the offer; that's pretty strong evidence the guy's overpaid. The guy is a 8/9th man talent making 5/6th man money. It's not Gilbert Arenas overpaid, but he's still overpaid.

                  Even if the signing was for 8/9th man money, it was still a stupid deal because it was only done to facilitate the Nash signing... and we all know that Nash left BC looking like a retard with his dick out. So there's that.

                  Oh there's the whole thing about how we went out of our way to overpay a restricted free agent who plays the same position as two recent lottery pick. Even if he lives up to the $ in his contract, he's going to be taking minutes from guys that we spend lottery picks on.

                  Oh and the $ used to sign him leaves us we much less flexibility to bring on the stud SF that we desperately need to jump to the next tier in the east.


                  In summary:
                  ---> He is overpaid. Not egregiously but still overpait
                  ---> There are multiple other reasons why the signing was a bad idea
                  ---> Claiming that the entire world of basketball analysis (outside of Raps Repub) is wrong about this guy makes you a homer
                  ---> It's OK to be a homer because we are stuck with this guy so we may as well hope he produces.

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                  • #24
                    Hold up. His play in one short playoff series, against the two best goddamn wing players in the league, is somehow "proof" that he's a below average player?

                    And the fact that the Knicks didn't match is evidence that he's overpaid? Are you nuts? For one thing, the Knicks' front office has shown, time and again, that they are one of the worst in the league. They've got more money to play with than anyone else except for possibly the Lakers, one of the most attractive cities in the NBA to play in, and they still can't build a winner. And for another, he would have cost the Knicks much more than the $18.75 mil we're paying him because of the backloaded contract offer and their luxury tax situation.

                    In summary:

                    ---> He's not overpaid
                    ---> Your "other reasons" depend on your faulty evaluation of him as a bad player
                    ---> I'd rather be a homer than a hater

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                    • #25
                      tkfu wrote: View Post
                      Hold up. His play in one short playoff series, against the two best goddamn wing players in the league, is somehow "proof" that he's a below average player?

                      And the fact that the Knicks didn't match is evidence that he's overpaid? Are you nuts? For one thing, the Knicks' front office has shown, time and again, that they are one of the worst in the league. They've got more money to play with than anyone else except for possibly the Lakers, one of the most attractive cities in the NBA to play in, and they still can't build a winner. And for another, he would have cost the Knicks much more than the $18.75 mil we're paying him because of the backloaded contract offer and their luxury tax situation.

                      In summary:

                      ---> He's not overpaid
                      ---> Your "other reasons" depend on your faulty evaluation of him as a bad player
                      ---> I'd rather be a homer than a hater
                      Call me crazy for using the most important games of the guy's career as the measuring stick for his abilities. Please continue to ignore the most important games of a player's career when crafting your opinions.

                      Please explain further how citing that he duplicates 2 of our 4 recent lotto picks depends on my evaluation of him as a bad player.

                      Sidenote: He's not a "bad" player. He's an NBA bench warmer (translation: still awesome at basketball). He's a below average NBA player, but not a bad player.

                      Thank you for self identifying, but we all already know youre a homer based upon you defence of the contact the excuses for inarguably sub-par playoff performance.

                      You have seemed to insinuate that I am somehow a hater just because I recognize this was a stupid move by BC. Again, this may be crazy talk, but I think there is room for a fan to criticize a bad move by the GM without "hating" the team.

                      Is it wrong of me to translate the "I'd rather be a homer than a hater" comment to "I will blindly buy into anything my team does even if there is overwhelming reasonable evidence to believe otherwise"? Or is that jumping too far on my part?

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                      • #26
                        NoBan wrote: View Post
                        Call me crazy for using the most important games of the guy's career as the measuring stick for his abilities.
                        You're crazy. For one thing, it's five games. Anyone who would use a sample size that small, all coming against the same team, is an idiot. And it's against the frigging Heat! Even great players often end up looking like shit going up against LeBron and Wade.

                        In conclusion, obvious troll is obvious.

                        NoBan wrote: View Post
                        Please explain further how citing that he duplicates 2 of our 4 recent lotto picks depends on my evaluation of him as a bad player.
                        My apologies, that point is at least not stark raving insane. It was a bit hard to pick it out of the rest. But I happen to think that DeMar isn't very good, and that this is likely to be his last season here. And there are 96 minutes a night to go around at the wing positions. Even with DeMar and Ross, there's plenty of playing time for everyone.

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                        • #27
                          I agree that the point about the Knicks not matching is unfair due to the tax implications.

                          Although I buy into advanced statistical analysis as a strong evaluation tool, i also believe there's moments of judgement in any given basketball life. Although it certainly is a low sample size, the playoffs in NY in the face of depleted depth and the Big 3 as opponents seems like a moment of judgement.

                          But now that I'm thinking about it, after failing in a moment of judgement, wouldnt the best thing for a young player be a quick change of scenery and an opportunity to play a role and re-establish himself? It's not like I'm rooting against the guy. I'll gladly eat crow if he blossoms here. And, as has been already pointed out, just because he's overpaid doesnt stop him from contributing. Like Jose last season. Clearly overpaid, still able to contribute. That's best case scenario here.

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                          • #28
                            Excellent discussion. A couple of things to add

                            - The key to being good in this league the way the cap is structured is to avoid paying "average" players a "average" salary. In a perfect world, pay your superstars whatever it takes to keep / attract them - which by definition means after your top 3-4 guys, in order to be successful, you need to find bargains (because likely a couple of your top 3-4 wont be a "bargain" .. but they are worth it because of their talent). Think Rudy Gay as an example of a guy who is "overpaid" but at the same time "worth it" if hes your third best player like he is on the Grizz. I think its safe to say even from the Landry supporters, that hes not a difference maker. Even on this team .. hes something like the 5-6th best player .. and on a better team he could be lower on the depth charts. So even if you conclude his play is exactly average and so is his salary, it doesnt mean hes a good signing
                            - To the Landry supporters, I would flip the arugment a little bit and ask you, can you coherently argue that hes underpaid (or that hes clearly NOT overpaid). I can buy that its arguable that hes either fairly paid or overpaid .. I cant see any argument that hes legitately underpaid. Kind of twisted logic .. but if thats the case, my conclusion has to be that hes not fairly paid, because if he was there would be equal arguments for both over and underpaid .. and I simply dont see them
                            - I think as some people have well pointed out .. the arugment of "might as well spend it .. ununsed cap space / money doesnt do us any good" is flawed. Both the $ and the cap space can be used in many different ways whether that is to sign new players now or better players in the future
                            - you can talk about the cap hit being 6.25 mm / year, but the actual dollars in yr 3 are 10 mm - so trading him will be a little more difficult, than say, trading amir, whose contract goes up gradually like a normal one and equals its cap hit at the end.
                            - taking all this into account . my take is Im ok with the Landry signing. Hes a solid 5th starter / early guy off the bench in the league. But, he is overpaid. Not in a crippling way .. but certainly overpaid.
                            Last edited by mountio; Mon Oct 1st, 2012, 11:08 PM.

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                            • #29
                              mountio wrote: View Post
                              - To the Landry supporters, I would flip the arugment a little bit and ask you, can you coherently argue that hes underpaid (or that hes clearly NOT overpaid). I can buy that its arguable that hes either fairly paid or overpaid .. I cant see any argument that hes legitately underpaid. Kind of twisted logic .. but if thats the case, my conclusion has to be that hes not fairly paid, because if he was there would be equal arguments for both over and underpaid .. and I simply dont see them
                              I actually do think he's underpaid, and Matt52 made that case earlier in this thread:

                              Matt52 wrote:
                              Using TheNBAGeek.com and 9.15 wins produced he 'should' be earning $16M.
                              Using Basketball-Reference.com and 4.75 wins produced he 'should' be earning $8.3M.

                              No matter how you cut it the man at $6.23M per year (as his salary cap hit, he is getting paid $5M, $5M, $8.7M) he is a bargain!
                              And that's assuming his play over the next three years will be somewhere in between how he played his 1st and 2nd year. Since players in their early 20s historically tend to continue to improve, I expect better than that. I think he's a phenomenal value.

                              He's underpaid because advanced stats love the guy (adjusted +/- does too, though personally I don't generally put too much stock in those numbers), and more and more of the smart teams in the league are basing their decisions on advanced stats. If he didn't get this offer from us, he would have gotten it elsewhere, you can be sure of that.

                              I didn't want to make that case myself, because I wanted the focus of the thread to be on the myth that he's overpaid, so I didn't want to fill it up with folks saying OMG UR AN IDIOT HOW CAN YOU THINK HES UNDERPAID. As long as you're willing to look at the data and be rational about it, it's impossible to argue he's overpaid. To make that case, you've got to either make specious arguments about "playoff clutchness" like NoBan did, or value scoring above all else (haven't seen anyone make that case yet, thank goodness).

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                              • #30
                                tkfu wrote: View Post
                                I actually do think he's underpaid, and Matt52 made that case earlier in this thread:



                                And that's assuming his play over the next three years will be somewhere in between how he played his 1st and 2nd year. Since players in their early 20s historically tend to continue to improve, I expect better than that. I think he's a phenomenal value.

                                He's underpaid because advanced stats love the guy (adjusted +/- does too, though personally I don't generally put too much stock in those numbers), and more and more of the smart teams in the league are basing their decisions on advanced stats. If he didn't get this offer from us, he would have gotten it elsewhere, you can be sure of that.

                                I didn't want to make that case myself, because I wanted the focus of the thread to be on the myth that he's overpaid, so I didn't want to fill it up with folks saying OMG UR AN IDIOT HOW CAN YOU THINK HES UNDERPAID. As long as you're willing to look at the data and be rational about it, it's impossible to argue he's overpaid. To make that case, you've got to either make specious arguments about "playoff clutchness" like NoBan did, or value scoring above all else (haven't seen anyone make that case yet, thank goodness).
                                I put the post up on WP but, to be perfectly honest, I do think he is overpaid. Not by a lot but still overpaid based on what he has done so far in the league thus far.

                                But overpaying is the nature of free agency - and especially restricted free agency.

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