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New-look Raptors won't make playoffs

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  • #31
    CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    I had posted a very similar breakdown in another thread a couple weeks ago, that was almost identical to that. I only had 2 differences

    1. I put Chicago in Tier-3 without Rose (they'd be Tier-1 with Rose)

    2. I put Toronto in Tier-4, to be in the battle for 7th & 8th. I think they are better on paper than you give them credit for, as I think they will be a significantly better team than Detroit, Washington and Cleveland.


    For me, the closest tiers are 3 & 4. I could easily see the Knicks and/or Nets falling flat, back into the battle for 7th & 8th. I could just as easily see any of the Tier-4 teams jumping up to separate themselves from the rest of the back, safely into the playoffs.

    Agreed

    Comment


    • #32
      EverythingBlaxx wrote: View Post
      The major thing working against the Raps is that the Atlantic division is now the toughest division in the NBA and they have to play those teams 16 times while teams in a weak division like Atlanta get 12 cakewalk games against Charlotte, Orlando and to a lesser extent Washington
      To be fair, Toronto plays Washington, Orlando and Charlotte as many times as Atlanta does (4 each), and Toronto has one less game against Miami. So for this year, at least, I don't think their division really works against them.

      Comment


      • #33
        demar and ed in make or break (CONTRACT) years + flying v/ross + second year of casey + lowry (the leader/alpha dog we've never really had) + landry fields (eager to prove the critics wrong) + best depth in years (ever?)

        ==============

        playoffs!

        i'm going to go out on a limb and say the team overachieves and we get the 5th or 6th seed barring injuries. have a feeling the team makes a strong move come trade deadline team too.
        @sweatpantsjer

        Comment


        • #34
          I predict the Hawks will finish ahead of the Nets. Of course I am pulling for the Raptors to make the playoffs but we'll see how it plays out. Every year there are teams that surprise us and ones that disappoint.

          Comment


          • #35
            ceez wrote: View Post
            demar and ed in make or break (CONTRACT) years + flying v/ross + second year of casey + lowry (the leader/alpha dog we've never really had) + landry fields (eager to prove the critics wrong) + best depth in years (ever?)

            ==============

            playoffs!

            i'm going to go out on a limb and say the team overachieves and we get the 5th or 6th seed barring injuries. have a feeling the team makes a strong move come trade deadline team too.
            it's pretty rare for a team to have so much turnover, have to rely so much on rookies and relatively unknown or unproven young players to make such a leap as 5th or 6th. If you really believe it who, in a best case scenario are they gonna beat out for those spots?
            LET'S GO RAP-TORS!!!!!

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            • #36
              stretch wrote: View Post
              I predict the Hawks will finish ahead of the Nets. Of course I am pulling for the Raptors to make the playoffs but we'll see how it plays out. Every year there are teams that surprise us and ones that disappoint.
              I would LOVE to see both the Knicks and Nets MISS the playoffs! That would be sweet. With the Raptors making the playoffs, of course!

              That would put Miami, Boston, Indiana, Chicago, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Toronto and one of Milwaukee, Washington, Detroit or Cleveland in the playoffs.

              Comment


              • #37
                minks77 wrote: View Post
                it's pretty rare for a team to have so much turnover, have to rely so much on rookies and relatively unknown or unproven young players to make such a leap as 5th or 6th. If you really believe it who, in a best case scenario are they gonna beat out for those spots?
                I would argue that Boston, Atlanta, Philadelphia, New York and Brooklyn have all had significant roster turnover this offseason, just like Toronto. I think Boston is still a guaranteed playoff team, given their veteran leaders and the quality of depth/role players they added.

                All those other teams could easily finish 4th (Miami, Indiana and Boston will be top-3), or just as easily miss the playoffs, given the various uncertainty surrounding them. It should be a wild ride this year in the East!

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                • #38
                  you're right but they've added NBA Vets, we've added rookies and guys still wet behind the ears. Apples 'n Oranges hombre. Also, the core identity hasn't really changed for Boston or NYK and to some extent ATL. Philly and Brooklyn have the biggest adjustments to make I guess, but the guys they've added should help that be smoother than our own transition will be.

                  Put you're seatbelt on and keep your arms in the vehicle. Wild ride indeed!1
                  LET'S GO RAP-TORS!!!!!

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Two ways of looking at:
                    -Explain the logic of Nets adding JJ & they are EXPECTED? to fight for top 4 spot (same Nets that lost some of the bench, overpaid for 3 key guys (Wallace, Hump & Lopez).
                    -What does adding those 4 guys do?
                    -Lowry improves your PG defensively (lets call it a wash on O -even that can be argued). This automatically improves your help D by 4s & 5s (simple, a lot less need to help bec Jose got beat, KL won't);
                    -Your 5 is as good or better on D (Val, regardless what he does, Gray & Amir hugely improve your D);
                    -Our PF is much better on O (no argument there I hope), while on D there is a lot less pressure (PGs don't get beat, SF can take care of themselves, there is competition at SG & competition & final year of contract are usually good "stimulators"); Bargs offense should be no problem.
                    THere you are.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      tkfu wrote: View Post
                      I've said it before, but I think Philly could go either way. They replaced Andre Iguodala, the best wing defender in the league except for possibly LeBron, with Jason Richardson, who is terrible on D and coming off the worst season of his career. They amnestied a solid defensive center (Brand), and replaced him with a very, very good two-way player (Bynum) whose knees are definite question marks. They've got a pretty good coach who has a history of clashing with players who won't follow orders, and they just acquired a star player who is notoriously bratty and disrespectful of coaches. Plus, Lou Williams was their microwave, and they let him walk. If Richardson doesn't have a big-time comeback year, where does the guard play that allows Bynum to not be constantly double-teamed come from?

                      If everything clicks for them, they're gonna be dangerous, maybe even conference finalists. But there are a whole lotta ifs. If someone were to offer me even money on who's gonna finish with the better record between Philly and Toronto, I'd think hard about it, but I'd probably take Toronto.
                      All excellent points.
                      I am not sold on Philly on several reasons:
                      -Bynum & healthy are generally not found in same sentence/year consistently; Is Bynum an alpha dog happy to have escaped Kobe's shadow & be the man? Even if he has a great & healthy year:
                      -Essentially Philly replaced Bynum for Iggy, Brand & Lou W (plus some bench). My math was always good & there appears to be a major shortage which improved Turner & J Rich & N Young have no chance of replacing.
                      Lets remember: Philly was 8 seed last year. IMO they have not improved for sure. If everything clicks perfectly (If Bynum stays healthy & is very productive, if Turner has a major improvement spurt, if JRich becomes a JRich 5 years ago, if N Young becomes a team player -he better with Collins...).
                      Too many ifs if you ask me.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        How are those if's any worse than the Raptors?

                        Let's remember: Toronto was 11 seed last year. IMO they have not improved for sure. If everything clicks perfectly (If Bargnani stays health & is very productive, if DeRozan has a major improvement spurt, if Fields plays like his rookie season, if JV becomes a JV 5 years from now, if Lowry becomes a team player-he better with Casey...). Too many ifs if you ask me.

                        (Ok. I'll admit that the Lowry one was a stretch, but he did get into disagreements with McHale so it's at least 1% valid!)
                        your pal,
                        ebrian

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          ebrian wrote: View Post
                          How are those if's any worse than the Raptors?

                          Let's remember: Toronto was 11 seed last year. IMO they have not improved for sure. If everything clicks perfectly (If Bargnani stays health & is very productive, if DeRozan has a major improvement spurt, if Fields plays like his rookie season, if JV becomes a JV 5 years from now, if Lowry becomes a team player-he better with Casey...). Too many ifs if you ask me.

                          (Ok. I'll admit that the Lowry one was a stretch, but he did get into disagreements with McHale so it's at least 1% valid!)
                          How have they not improved for sure? you feeling all right bro? they have significantly improved at EVERY position. We are one of the more deeper teams this season. A lot of you guys are just looking at the starting five, but without a decent bench your team is going to suck ass when you take out your starters. The Nets are a good example of that outside of marshon brooks and maybe CJ watson i don't see anyone on their bench who can consistently put up good numbers. Look at our team:

                          PG: Lowry*, Calderon, John Lucas III*
                          SG: Derozan, T.Ross*, Alan Anderson
                          SF: Fields*, Kleiza, Mcguire*
                          PF: Bargnani, Ed, Acy*
                          C: Valanciunas*, Amir, Gray

                          * - Upgrade at that position

                          As you can see we upgraded at literally every position and our team is very deep. You can't say we didn't improve for sure. And it definitely won't take everything to click perfectly for us to make the playoffs. A jump from 11th to 8th seed is not big at all considering how much our roster has improved.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            EverythingBlaxx wrote: View Post
                            I have a hard time naming 8 teams in the East that are legitimately better than the Raptors. I can count 7 (Miami, Boston, New York, Brooklyn, Philadelphia, Indiana, Chicago [even without Rose they are better than the Raptors. This isn't open for discussion]) but the 8th spot is pretty wide open between the Hawks, Bucks and Raptors. The major thing working against the Raps is that the Atlantic division is now the toughest division in the NBA and they have to play those teams 16 times while teams in a weak division like Atlanta get 12 cakewalk games against Charlotte, Orlando and to a lesser extent Washington
                            IMO this is by far our biggest obstacle.

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Perhaps I am a bit of an optimist, but lets analyse the situation:
                              -This is East & IMO there are only 2 teams pretty much sure thing to make playoffs -lets call them Tier1
                              Tier 1: Miami
                              Indiana
                              Tier 2: All good chance of making playoff (iff thing work out)
                              Boston (maybe even tier 1)
                              NY Knicks
                              Brooklyn Nets
                              Philladelphia
                              Chicago (With Rose -Tear 1)
                              Atlanta
                              Tier 3: Hopefulls:
                              Raps
                              Milwaukee
                              Washington
                              Tier 4: Dreamers (Rest)
                              The goal is simple: we have to "bump off" at least 1 team from tier 2.
                              One common denominator of all tier 2 teams 1 or more major flaws:
                              -Boston was sub 500 before trade deadline last year, then took Miami to game 7. Yest they have improved somewhat, but if either Rondo or KG miss large amount of games -good luck (they might still be in playoff race, but Ainge will unload few guys & retool -like he almost did last year);
                              -NY Knicks -What if old farts don't cut it? Is there another Lin to give them a boost? Injuries? They can finish 2nd or 9th in division.
                              -Nets: Finished BELOW Raps last year. OK, they pick up grossly overpriced JJ, Lopez is back probably healthy, but 3 of resigned guys were somewhat to very over paid. Are they still motivated? How much is new area worth in terms of wins? What if they don't click right away? Does Prokorov look like a patient guy?
                              -Philly -Got Bynum, lost Lou, Brand Iggy & Vucevic. And this team was 8 seed last year. Bynum can have monster season IFF healthy (but Bynum & healthy, except for last year are not uttered in same sentence);
                              -Bulls -Without Rose lost to 8 seed last year. Lost Asik. Lost Lucas. Not too many solid improvements.
                              -Atlanta -Lost its best player & starting SF. Got back a backup PG (Harris). IMO they belong to tier 3 more than 2.
                              I would not be surprised one bit if at least 1 or even 2, tier 2 teams don't make the playoffs. Lets face it: This is East, not West.
                              Last but not least: Raps have improved quite a bit from last year: From starters (KL, Fields -both LIKELY improvements over last year), much better bench. This team is highly unlikely to start (not come off the bench) 3 D-leaugers. And we still finished 11th. 2 of our starters last year (Anderson & Ben) won't even make top 12 players.
                              I am not even putting a lot of expectations on Val & Ross.
                              Also we will have a full training camp under coach Casey (considering what he did last year with what he had, I can't wait).
                              Realistically this team can expect to finish 6-9 range;
                              Reasonable expectation: 40-45 wins.
                              Last edited by Mapko; Sat Oct 6th, 2012, 07:24 PM.

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Mapko wrote: View Post
                                ...This team is highly unlikely to start (not come off the bench) 3 D-leaguers. And we still finished 11th. 2 of our starters last year (Anderson & Ben) won't eve make top 12 players.....
                                This bit caught my eye. Toronto did quite well last year considering the talent level. I think there is improvement in the starting five, but a huge jump in the next 5-6 guys off the bench compared to last year. I still think that the bench is where the Raps pull ahead of other teams in their battle for a play-off spot.

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