Arturo from Wages of Wins released his season predictions - Raps looking good

[Quirk]

nice post, tkfu

the longest thread I ever endured on WP is this one:

http://thenbehteam.blogspot.de/2011/...on-review.html

[Fuchan]

Epic post tkfu

[tkfu]

You got any proof for that?

It's necessary, by dint of the assumptions made in constructing the model. It's normalized to point differential. The question that you have to ask is to what degree you can consider a player responsible for his own stats. For example, does Reggie Evans get a lot of rebounds by taking away boards his teammates would have gotten anyway? Does Bargnani shoot a low percentage because he's forced to take bad shots, or because he chooses to take bad shots? Conversely, does Tyson Chandler keep his shooting percentage so high by forcing Carmelo to take tough shots at the end of the clock?

The argument in favour of the WP model is that players' per-minute production is remarkably consistent season to season, whether they're on good teams or bad. But that's a general argument; you can always make the case that specific players are exceptions for specific reasons. Additionally, you can argue against the position adjustment they employ and point out that it doesn't make a lot of sense to have a different standard of shooting efficiency for centers than you have for shooting guards if you're also going to make the case that shot creation isn't valuable. (Incidentally, their counter-argument to this criticism is that it's a model of real-world behaviour and results, and it's reasonable to expect it to break down if you extend it ad absurdum, which I find to be at least somewhat reasonable.) The position adjustment also causes problems evaluating players who are used in unusual ways, like Dirk, Bruce Bowen, or Andrea.

[Soft Euro]

Strangely, this system is good at matching individual stats to team wins. VERY good.
Sure, I believe that Ed and Amir are better players than Andrea.
I don't know enough about Wright to comment. I would have an open mind.

One thing Wins Produced does is penalise players for missing shots. I think that's fair. If both teams rebound, steal, etc the same, both have the same number of shots each game. Miss more than half of yours and your team loses. AB and DD miss a high percentage of their shots.

You got any proof for that?

[Hugmenot]

Strangely, this system is good at matching individual stats to team wins. VERY good.
Sure, I believe that Ed and Amir are better players than Andrea.
I don't know enough about Wright to comment. I would have an open mind.

What we know about Chris Wright:

24 years old
Was undrafted
Split last season between GS and D-league
Played less than 200 minutes in the NBA last season and did not impress GS enough to be offered a contract.

Yup, this guy COULD BE better than Andrea Bargnani!!

While on the subject of keeping an open mind, maybe you should give some thought about coach Casey being able to recognize basketball talent better than you and me.

[ebrian]

I'm a big fan of Wins Produced and Win Probabilities but this is the first time I've seen them so inaccurate from an individual standpoint.

[minks77]

I don't know enough about WP/WS to comment but you can clearly see the difference in a player like Harden over Ed so this system is obviously flawed. It's great that it penalizes for missed shots but does it take usage rates and sample size into account? I have no clue where it is they are coming up with these ranks or where it is they are going so laughably wrong but they are. They may believe in their numbers but Casey and others have consistently spoken of Andrea as their best player, bar none. I'm no Andrea fan but he is the best option when you need a bucket from this squad.

The final predictions it makes may be close (horseshoes and hand grenades) but the individual ranks are ludicrous. I love Amir, up until he fouls a guy while jogging across midcourt. ED is a boarding machine, but he can't hit bunnies in an empty gym. Where is the adjustment for boeheadedness?

Thanks to injury we've actually seen lineups featuring some of these higher ranked players on the court for extended minutes and the results are ugly ball, anemic offence, mediocre defence and loses with a capital "L".

[tkfu]

Well, yeah, the wins produced guys believe it. It's kind of amazing: in my view a classic case of 'scientism' in action. But they genuinely believe that Ed Davis (and Reggie evans) are amongst the best players in the league. For one thing, WP makes no allowance for the effect players have on their teammate shooting percentages, which are often quite large. So guys like Evans and Davis, who gum up the whole offense because nobody needs to cover them unless they're standing under the rim, don't get penalized for their lack of offensive versatility.

Yeah, that's definitely a problem. The thing is, it's really hard to address with numbers. The on-off data is much too noisy to be of much use--take a look at adjusted plus-minus and you'll find some pretty ridiculous results too, except that APM is also wildly inconsistent year-to-year.

I think that there's some really significant value in WP because of its year-to-year consistency. That at least tells you that you're measuring a real effect. To go beyond that you have to apply real-world basketball knowledge. The challenge is in being able to honestly synthesize and use the information, rather than just pick out the pieces of data that support your conclusion from each source. As Feynman said, "The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool."

[Kuh]

Is what you are saying here that AB and DD are in the bottom quarter of our players on a wp scale/depth chart as determined by this system?

The fatal flaw in this system is it obviously isnt worth shit at predicting what an individual player is worth to the team. Does anyone really believe that Ed or Amir are better players than Andrea? Or that running wright out there for 35min is going to win you more games than DeMar?

Strangely, this system is good at matching individual stats to team wins. VERY good.
Sure, I believe that Ed and Amir are better players than Andrea.
I don't know enough about Wright to comment. I would have an open mind.

One thing Wins Produced does is penalise players for missing shots. I think that's fair. If both teams rebound, steal, etc the same, both have the same number of shots each game. Miss more than half of yours and your team loses. AB and DD miss a high percentage of their shots.

[malefax]

Is what you are saying here that AB and DD are in the bottom quarter of our players on a wp scale/depth chart as determined by this system?

The fatal flaw in this system is it obviously isnt worth shit at predicting what an individual player is worth to the team. Does anyone really believe that Ed or Amir are better players than Andrea? Or that running wright out there for 35min is going to win you more games than DeMar?

Well, yeah, the wins produced guys believe it. It's kind of amazing: in my view a classic case of 'scientism' in action. But they genuinely believe that Ed Davis (and Reggie evans) are amongst the best players in the league. For one thing, WP makes no allowance for the effect players have on their teammate shooting percentages, which are often quite large. So guys like Evans and Davis, who gum up the whole offense because nobody needs to cover them unless they're standing under the rim, don't get penalized for their lack of offensive versatility.

[mcHAPPY]

Highlight of the link:

The Nets and Raptors are one injury away from contending (Apologies in advance to Bargniani and Lopez)

[minks77]

However, we are likely to play a lot of players 11-15 in our depth chart. Two of them are considered our 'stars'. You know, the two who went a combined 11/29 yesterday against Real Madrid. Fatal. Flaw.

Is what you are saying here that AB and DD are in the bottom quarter of our players on a wp scale/depth chart as determined by this system?

The fatal flaw in this system is it obviously isnt worth shit at predicting what an individual player is worth to the team. Does anyone really believe that Ed or Amir are better players than Andrea? Or that running wright out there for 35min is going to win you more games than DeMar?

[Primer]

So the Raps are predicted to be anywhere from a 5-8 seed in the East, with 8 seed being most likely. Sounds about right to me.

[Hugmenot]

We have one fatal flaw in our team right now.

According to WP:
- we have 5 players in the top 50 in the league (Kyle Lowry, Ed Davis, Jose Calderon, Amir Johnston, Landry Fields)
- we have the best PG pair in the league (Kyle, Jose)
- we have one of the best front courts in the league (Ed, Amir, Aaron Gray, likely big Val)
- we have decent options at the wings (Landry, Chris Wright, Dominic McGuire, likely TRoss)

However, we are likely to play a lot of players 11-15 in our depth chart. Two of them are considered our 'stars'. You know, the two who went a combined 11/29 yesterday against Real Madrid. Fatal. Flaw.

I would not put so much faith on a system which ranks Ed Davis (42) higher than James Harden (67), Tony Parker (91), Marc Gasol (119), Russel Westbrook (137), Rudy Gay (157), LaMarcus Aldridge (169), and does not list Kobe Bryant as a top 180 player in the league.

It fails the eye test, bigggggg time.

[Kuh]

Wins Produced has its problems with overvaluing certain stats and undervaluing others, but if there's one thing you can say about it: it's a remarkably good model for predicting wins at the team level. I'm feeling better and better about this season.

We have one fatal flaw in our team right now.

According to WP:
- we have 5 players in the top 50 in the league (Kyle Lowry, Ed Davis, Jose Calderon, Amir Johnston, Landry Fields)
- we have the best PG pair in the league (Kyle, Jose)
- we have one of the best front courts in the league (Ed, Amir, Aaron Gray, likely big Val)
- we have decent options at the wings (Landry, Chris Wright, Dominic McGuire, likely TRoss)

However, we are likely to play a lot of players 11-15 in our depth chart. Two of them are considered our 'stars'. You know, the two who went a combined 11/29 yesterday against Real Madrid. Fatal. Flaw.