Grantland's Zach Lowe Likes the Raps Chances

[Miekenstien]

i think the 30th pick in 2018 is the best deal

lets put lowry on layaway and make draft day deals until then

[ReubenJRD]

I don't know, really all depends on the overall progress after this season. Between the uncertainty of wanting the playoffs, or wanting to give away that bad pick for insurance.

I would rather make the playoffs, because that's every team's goal. A chance at a championship. Even though that is highly unrealistic for the Raptors, at the end of the day, it's basketball, playing to win the at the top.

[Bendit]

Matt & Calgary: Thanks for clearing that up. As Nilanka mentioned, with next year being a relatively weak one I suppose it would be the best to get it out of the way. Hopefully we can acquire another pick along the way.

[koncept]

Lowry will stay once he is offered a raptors-type contract.

[planetmars]

Where's the optimism? We'll miss the playoffs, get ranked 13th in the draft, and then we'll win the lottery!!!

[Nilanka]

In addition to next year being considered a "weak" draft. 2013 would be the ideal time to lose a pick.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Isnt that Lowry deal for a lottery pick in any of the next 5 years at Houston's discretion...and if the Raptors either keeping making the playoffs or the Rockets pass on a high lottery pick (hoping to get a low one in a subsequent year)....for the 5 years, Houston gets nothing? Well only Gary Forbes.

If this were correct, the Raps should just keep making the playoffs.

As Matt's post explains, Toronto will giveup a 1st round pick to Houston eventually, between 2013 & 2018. The one benefit of giving up the pick sooner (ie: #10-14 pick in 2013 if the Raps barely miss the playoffs), is that it eliminates the uncertainty around the pick and frees up 'future 1st round pick' to be used in potential trades. That enables the Raptors to giveup a pick as low as possible (and 2013 is allegedly a weak draft) to Houston, while starting to use 1st rounds picks (both to draft players and as trade chips as early as 2015) again as quickly as possible.

I'm hoping Brooklyn and NY are busts, and that Chicago, Atlanta, Philly and Milwaukee all perform below expectations, allowing the Raptors to charge into the playoffs. However, as long as there is good individual player development and development of team chemistry, I wouldn't be devestated missing the playoffs for one more season.

[mcHAPPY]

Isnt that Lowry deal for a lottery pick in any of the next 5 years at Houston's discretion...and if the Raptors either keeping making the playoffs or the Rockets pass on a high lottery pick (hoping to get a low one in a subsequent year)....for the 5 years, Houston gets nothing? Well only Gary Forbes.

If this were correct, the Raps should just keep making the playoffs.

From RealGM:

2013 first round draft pick to Houston
Toronto's own 2013 1st round pick to Houston (Top-3 Protected and 15-30 Protected in the 2013 Draft, top-2 protected and 15-30 protected in 2014, top-2 protected and 15-30 protected in 2015, top-1 Protected and 15-30 protected in 2016, top-1 protected and 15-30 Protected in 2017 and unprotected in the 2018 Draft. [Houston-Toronto, 7/11/2012]

Read more: http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/dra...#ixzz2AFRlJQjO

[Bendit]

Isnt that Lowry deal for a lottery pick in any of the next 5 years at Houston's discretion...and if the Raptors either keeping making the playoffs or the Rockets pass on a high lottery pick (hoping to get a low one in a subsequent year)....for the 5 years, Houston gets nothing? Well only Gary Forbes.

If this were correct, the Raps should just keep making the playoffs.

[Joey]

The fan in me wants to push for playoffs, but the logical side of me agrees with you wholeheartedly, as the perfect outcome from the Lowry trade. Not only do we trade the worst possible pick, but it's done immediately, while enabling BC to once again include future 1st round picks (starting with 2015 pick) in potential trades (ie: for a big name SF).

Precisely.
I obviously wouldn't be upset with making the playoffs. Great experience for the young guys. Gives us hope to pull a Philly/Indy and start demanding some respect up in here.

But I wouldn't be upset either if we missed out on the playoffs as described; while again maintaining that progress has been made, and hope has been instilled for an even longer playoff run next year.

And we pull off a contender for deal of the decade by getting Lowry for a #14 pick.

[mcHAPPY]

pfffft ...wait.. what... im confused ... ???

So lowry wants to have a team that he can be the leader of. He finds a young up and coming team in the raptors who have handed the reigns over to him. Lowry has a coach who trusts him and they fit one anothers playing/coaching type to a T.

The raps will also have some nice cap space for a juicy lowry extension next year after Calderon is gone.

Tell us all again why lowry is most likely leaving after next year ???

I agree 100% with your post. Additions:

1) If Alvin Williams and he are as tight as advertised, another good reason.

2) Raps don't need cap space, they will have Bird Rights.

3) Raps are eligible to sign Lowry to an extension on July 14th, 2013. Hopefully the Raps will have done something with trade assets or in free agency so the Bird RIghts are fully maximized.

[Blacklash2k4]

My predictions:

-Lowry makes the all star game as a reserve.
-We finish as a top 10 defense.
-We make the playoffs and put up a fight against the Heat bringing it to 6 games
-Lowry will be offered a max deal, which will be overpaying but will keep us set up for a while

Book it.

lol some pretty bold predictions, but I like the optimism. Lowry probably won't maike the reserves since there is so much competition in the guard position. If he wants a chance, he has to at least score like 19-22 PPG, 3-4 RPG, 6-8 APG and 1 SPG, which is completely possible for him. But even then, he still probably won't make it. I can see us finishing Top 10 defensively so good prediction. I can also see us making playoff if things go well, but I doubt we can hold the Heat to 6 games. I say we either get swept or at more up to 5 games. I can also see us giving Lowry a max contract especially if he puts up stats like I just mentioned, so again good prediction...

[wallz]

My predictions:

-Lowry makes the all star game as a reserve.
-We finish as a top 10 defense.
-We make the playoffs and put up a fight against the Heat bringing it to 6 games
-Lowry will be offered a max deal, which will be overpaying but will keep us set up for a while

Book it.

I hope you're right, but maybe not about the overpaying part.

[hateslosing]

My predictions:

-Lowry makes the all star game as a reserve.
-We finish as a top 10 defense.
-We make the playoffs and put up a fight against the Heat bringing it to 6 games
-Lowry will be offered a max deal, which will be overpaying but will keep us set up for a while

Book it.

[pesterm1]

I dunno, I'd rather go into the playoffs, give rookies, DeMar, Ed playoff experience as well as give Lowry motivation to stay.

If we don't get into the playoffs, that's one year with Lowry out the window when he'll most likely leave after the second year.

pfffft ...wait.. what... im confused ... ???

So lowry wants to have a team that he can be the leader of. He finds a young up and coming team in the raptors who have handed the reigns over to him. Lowry has a coach who trusts him and they fit one anothers playing/coaching type to a T.

The raps will also have some nice cap space for a juicy lowry extension next year after Calderon is gone.

Tell us all again why lowry is most likely leaving after next year ???