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Jonas - A Franchise Player?

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  • Jonas - A Franchise Player?

    Hopefully he can develop into a franchise center piece. Like Hakeem or David robinson
    This was a statement made by NoPropsNeeded (not to single you out rather just giving you credit as my muse). So I decided why not take a look at these players (and others) to see if this is a realistic probability that Jonas could become a franchise player himself. After all, Jonas just finished his 13th NBA game and we all know how easy it is to indentify a franchise player in 13 games

    Jonas - age 20

    23 min/p 8.6 pts 50% fg 6 rebs 0.9 blks

    Definetely reasonable numbers. Not outstanding, but nothing to cringe at either especially considering the minutes.

    So lets compare (all numbers are from said players first 13 games)

    Hakeem - age 22

    N/A min/p 19 pts 51.5% fg 11.7 rbs N/A blks

    Some of Hakeems numbers were missing and therefore incomplete (guess that happens when the data is 30 years old).

    Robinson - age 24

    35 min/p 20.9 pts 52.1 fg% 11.5 rbs 2.6 blks

    Statistically speaking Jonas is well behind these two players in their early campaigns. Now the age and minute difference should be pointed out. That said, I'm not sure if Jonas playing 30+ minutes a game would be able to acheive quite what these guys did and his experience playing professional in Europe should offset some of the age difference (ie. experience vs age).

    But watching a young Robinson and Hakeem play, I think there is a noticeable difference in how complete and dominant their game was that early in their NBA career.


    Jonas was assumed to be a little more raw coming into the league, so why not make another franchise player comparison?

    Dwight Howard - age 18

    31 min/p 9.4 pts 55% fg 10.5 rbs 2 blks

    Definetely more comparable numbers here. Again though if we watch Dwight in his rookie year, we see a very noticeable difference, specifically in athleticism. While I'm not claiming Jonas is slow or unathletic, Dwight had and has an almost unmatched speed and athleticism for his size. Add that Dwight was even younger than Jonas coming into the league, and had less experience (coming straight out of highschool), I find it hard to think Jonas quite matches up.


    So I think its fair to say that with what we've see so far is Jonas, atleast over a similar time frame, isn't quite on par with some of the franchise Cs in NBA history. Now thats not to say he couldn't become one, but the numbers and eye test (both limited ofcourse) indicate that at the very least he has a long ways to go.

    But here's some food for thought:

    25 min/p 8.3 pts 51.1% fg 8 rbs 0.6 blks

    These are the first 13 games for a 20 year old Andrew Bogut.

    I watch that and I see something very comparable. Think of that for a second... a future healthy Andrew Bogut who can hit free throws and likely able to add a 15+fter to his game? That may not be the elite of the elite, but that is still damn good. Thats still a top 3-5 C in the league. And thats very promising.
    Last edited by Craiger; Sun Nov 25, 2012, 12:37 PM.

  • #2
    Great post and great comparison. I'm looking forward to watching Jonas develop into a very good player. I agree that he probably won't become a franchise player because he lacks the supreme athleticism, but he could certainly become a star center IMO. And a star center is rare nowadays


    • #3
      Great post!

      I think that if JV got 30 mins+ a game, he could get dwights stats. Dwight relied heavily on his athleticism to put those numbers out, and he didnt really have any polish whatsoever until his 3r year. Jonas I think is smoother on offense already than Dwight was as a rookie, though simply doesnt have the other-worldly shoulder span of dwight.
      Bogut has got be the best comparison ive seen so far, and youve proved your point really well with that video. I see JV written all over it. I see JV becoming a more mobile and more diverse (with an elbow jumper, and baseline jumper off the backboard like Duncan) center and will be unique from both Dwight and Bogut,
      The Baltic Beast is unstoppable!


      • #4
        Jonas' floor IMO is Marcin Gortat (good defense, rebounding, great roler to the basket, a decent jumpshot/freethrows)


        • #5
          His ceiling is harder to predict, maybe Chandler on defense, on offense I see some Duncan (runs the floor, shoots similary), Noahs hustle with great pick and roll ability


          • #6
            Jonas back to back field goals while posting Tim Duncan.
            The Baltic Beast is unstoppable!


            • #7
              Vykis wrote: View Post
              Jonas' floor IMO is Marcin Gortat (good defense, rebounding, great roler to the basket, a decent jumpshot/freethrows)
              I think Gortat has a higher basketball IQ and JV a higher motor. I'm not that sure Jonas' lack of footspeed will preclude him from becoming a great pick-and-roll option.


              • #8
                I agree with Vykis on the floor being a Marcin Gortat, Chandler type of player. Maybe around 13 ppg, 10rpg, 2bpg. This is very good already...

                As for the ceiling, I don't think there is a limit. He doesn't have the elite athleticism, but he is athletic. It will show more when he will get stronger in a couple of years. Right now he just lacks the strength to put his athleticism to use as he is halted by other big stronger bodies defending him.

                Strength is going to be his main issue besides experience. Both will come with time. Good thing he aspires to become as strong as Dwight Howard, so in a couple of years he will have the strength needed for sure.

                Where JV is special is how active he is, his hustle, him being a scrappy type, his motor, his willingness to work on his game, his D. This pretty much guarantees him becoming at least a Tyson Chandler, Joakim Noah or Marcin Gortat type of player.

                His free throw shooting indicates he's going to develop a reliable mid-range jumper and he'll most likely use it exactly the way Tim Duncan uses it. Shoot it from top of the key and baseline when wide open, use the glass on the elbow shots or use the pump fake to get to the rim when D is tight. This will also result in him getting to the charity line a lot.

                We already see the potential in his post play. As I'm writing this, JV successfully scored on Timmy in the post twice in just a couple of minutes! He will get very good at this in time, especially with a stronger body to work with and again here I see lots of drawn fouls and lots of free-throws in the future.

                All of this leads me to the final quality of JV. It's his basketball IQ and smarts. This is what will separate JV from so many bigs playing the game today and in the past. Actually I believe his intelligence will make him one of the best centers ever, a HOFer. Already in his rookie year, we see how good he is at knowing what he can do and what he can not (yet). He doesn't force absolutely anything, takes his time when patience is needed, but at the same time doesn't hesitate to take whatever the game gives him (open mid-range jumpers, post up, etc.) and with no fear it seems.

                Now, if he does improve on his mid-range game, his strength and adds some post moves, he will be a more than a franchise player and more like one of best big men ever. I just hope he stays healthy and doesn't get into any major confidence problems over his career which would stop his progress.

                He's going to be very good at least, but his potential has no bounds.

                My prediction of his stats in his 6th season in the NBA:

                worst case: 13pts, 10rpg, 2bpg
                best case: 25pts, 13rpg, 3bpg


                • #9
                  It's usually said that big men take 3-5 years to develop but I think Jonas will hit his stride sooner than that. For a rookie, he already looks very good. With each game, he's getting a little bit more calmer and smoother. He just needs a few off-seasons to work on his strength and skills. I'm not sure how high his ceiling is but he should become a very good player with time. If rumours are to be believed, the Spurs were apparently trying to acquire the 5th pick to take Val in the 2011 draft. If an organization as accomplished as San Antonio does that, you know you've got a good player on your hands. No offence to Tristan Thompson, who will be a good one, but I still can't believe that Cleveland passed on Val in the draft. I often wonder how good a Kyrie Irving/Val combo would have been.


                  • #10
                    @Spurs, JV showing flashes of ELITE potential .
                    The Baltic Beast is unstoppable!


                    • #11
                      Jonas over the last 4 games including the Pistons game where he played injured:

                      14.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 2.3 apg, 2.3 bpg
                      FG% 63.8 FT% 80.0%
                      32.5 minutes/game

                      Really good, not only for a rookie!


                      • #12
                        The Baltic Beast is unstoppable!


                        • #13
                          He looked fantastic today, absolutely fantastic. He defended Duncan terribly, BUT, he also had his way offensively. What I like is how he doesn't rush his shots, and he is very aware of his height advantage over his rivals. At one point he was posting up Duncan, and he was playing so low in the post (I assume just to be able to move Duncan) but when he came out of his post he recognized that he had the height on Duncan and curled in a shot from about 3ft. I love that! We should love that, we haven't seen that in a while in this city....very exciting.

                          I think he's going to be an Elite Center, at least I think that based on what I saw today.
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                          • #14
                            I think JV is going to be a very good player, but elite is a bit much. He doesn't have the athleticism to be an elite player like Robinson, Hakeem, or Shaq or the post fundamentals like Duncan, Kareem, Walton, etc.

                            An elite player is one in which you build around.. and one in which you could consider yourselves contenders. As an example, I don't consider Marc Gasol or Tyson Chandler elite and I think JV will become a player like those two. Great guys to have on your team, but not elite.


                            • #15
                              I think there are Elite players who are not hall of famers:
                              Rudy Gay is an elite player not likely to be a hall of famer,
                              Dwight Howard may or may not be a HOF
                              Carmelo Anthony may or may not be a HOF
                              Vince Carter may or may not be a HOF

                              But Id say they are all premier players, and JV has the potential to be one of the best C's in the league. Infact I would love to see your list of C's who are better than JV CURRENTLY, and then we can estimate who he will beat out in the future!
                              The Baltic Beast is unstoppable!