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Chisholm sums up reality of any Rudy Gay deal

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  • Chisholm sums up reality of any Rudy Gay deal

    Was thinking about this rumor all day and how unwise a move it would seem to be, and how it seems way too hard to convince people why. Chisholm brings up great points.

    The appeal of Gay on paper is obvious: he's an athletic specimen with a sweet-looking jumper and an ability to pour points on an opposing team. For a Raptors club that is still looking for a go-to scorer on the wing, Gay would seem like an ideal candidate.

    There are pesky 'realities', though, that paint a less rosy picture. First of all, Gay is on the trading block because he is having a sub-par year, posting six-year lows in points per game (17.8) and PER (14.9) and career-lows in standard field goal percentage (.408) as well as true shooting percentage (.484). Add this to the fact that Gay has never been known for his commitment to defence and the need to acquire Gay wanes just a little.

    More pressing than stats, however, is money. Gay is slated to earn $16.5 million this season and $37.2 million over the next two years. That's a ton of money, especially under the new, harsher conditions of the current CBA. That figure would serve as a significant obstacle for the Raptors going forward, especially if Gay continues to operate at levels below his career norms like he has been this season, and would serve as a sticking point with fans should the team's fortunes not improve measurable with his presence.

    Of course, any trade is weighed by the pieces that are exchanged. As ESPN is reporting, Toronto's opening bid is Jose Calderon's expiring $10.6 million contract and breakout power forward Ed Davis. According to ESPN's Trade Machine, that trade would be approved, though it would eat the roughly $3 million Toronto has remaining under the salary cap. Now, that would be Toronto trading two of their best players this season for a guy having arguably his worst professional season, as well as depleting two positions while overstuffing a third, so let's just say that if this trade were to go down as reported (and we're a long way from that yet), it wouldn't be because it balanced Toronto's roster any.

    There are fit issues when you talk about bringing Gay to the Raptors, as well. Assuming no wing players are packaged into a trade, Toronto would be facing a wing rotation of Gay and DeMar DeRozan in the starting lineup and Terrence Ross, Landry Fields and Alan Anderson off the bench (with Mickael Pietrus sliding out of the rotation altogether). That's not a great situation for Toronto to be facing.

    Right off the bat, you are facing duplication issues between Gay and DeRozan. Neither one is a great shooter (don't be deceived, Gay is not a great, or really even a good, three-point shooter), neither one excels at defence and neither one passes the ball well. These guys don't offset each other's games so much as mirror them, except Gay does it at a greater than 50% financial premium.

    Behind them, you have to make a choice about the limited minutes available to Ross, Fields and Anderson, all three of whom have been playing well of late. Since Gay will command roughly 35 minutes per game (as opposed to the 22 that Pietrus is currently logging), that also considerably restricts the amount of time available to those players. How would Dwane Casey manage that situation? If we assume that Fields continues to play way out of position at power forward, that eases some of the logjam, but suffice it to say, it's not a long-term solution.

    It should also be taken into account that Ross plays a style of basketball that actually evokes plenty of memories of Gay, except that Ross plays some defence. With Toronto fans' tendency to latch onto young players and reserves, how long would it be before they turned on Gay if he appeared to be stifling Ross's development by eating up all of his minutes?

    This is one of those moves that catches the eye because it involves a name player being linked to the Toronto Raptors, but it doesn't take long before one realizes that the fit doesn't make sense. Back in the summer, when the Raptors were still building around Andrea Bargnani and were looking ahead to a free agency pursuit of Steve Nash, then a Rudy Gay trade made a certain amount of sense.
    I couldn't agree with his assessment more, especially the last part. I think a lot of fans are still crazy over Rudy from hoping to get him in the summer. But in the summer, BC's plan was built around Nash, and Bargs replicating his success from last year, and being a more likely playoff team than we are now. We are a long shot at best to make the playoffs now, and frankly it would be a much more positive sign if we did make it with the group we have now than with any team after a Gay trade. I mean, not only could it kill our cap flexibility, but if we end up having to give up Ed and/or Ross, as well as multiple picks, we'd lose 2 developing players, and lose the chance to develop some down the road.

  • #2
    white men can't jump wrote: View Post
    Was thinking about this rumor all day and how unwise a move it would seem to be, and how it seems way too hard to convince people why. Chisholm brings up great points.



    I couldn't agree with his assessment more, especially the last part. I think a lot of fans are still crazy over Rudy from hoping to get him in the summer. But in the summer, BC's plan was built around Nash, and Bargs replicating his success from last year, and being a more likely playoff team than we are now. We are a long shot at best to make the playoffs now, and frankly it would be a much more positive sign if we did make it with the group we have now than with any team after a Gay trade. I mean, not only could it kill our cap flexibility, but if we end up having to give up Ed and/or Ross, as well as multiple picks, we'd lose 2 developing players, and lose the chance to develop some down the road.
    Come to think of it, not only are we stuck with this massive contract, we could lose Ed as well? What a kick in the face I'd say. I also believe that there's quite a bit of media BS in all of this. Anderson is playing at a high level and Fields is starting to show promise - same goes for Ross (he's a 2 btw). There's no REAL need for someone at the 3. Demar's game is still suspect for me. I just think that there's a lot of speculation at the moment. Looking at my earlier posts on Gay, I was all for it. Now, not so. His contract is HUGE!!!
    “The saving of our world from pending doom will come, not through the complacent adjustment of the conforming majority, but through the creative maladjustment of a nonconforming minority.” - Martin Luther King

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    • #3
      The Raptors should not be making this trade under any circumstance unless they are sending Andrea Bargnani back instead of Ed Davis.

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      • #4
        how is terrence ross a small forward? the majority of point guards shoulde be able to post this guy up with ease.....he is much too slight, and at 21 nonetheless. those shoulders aren't going to get any bigger.

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        • #5
          akashsingh wrote: View Post
          how is terrence ross a small forward? the majority of point guards shoulde be able to post this guy up with ease.....he is much too slight, and at 21 nonetheless. those shoulders aren't going to get any bigger.
          The post-up game across the league is in decline for guards, Ross' post defense is hardly a concern. And I don't even think it's too much of a stretch to play him at the three because he's a quick dude. I believe the boundaries between the 1/2, 2/3 and 4/5 are really gray right now and it doesn't make sense to pigeonhole players into positions. If a guy can play, is of a decent height, he'll be able to play, the rest is up to in-game matchups.

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          • #6
            Gay trade. I mean, not only could it kill our cap flexibility, but if we end up having to give up Ed and/or Ross, as well as multiple picks, we'd lose 2 developing players, and lose the chance to develop some down the road.
            Cuz that's exactly what we want another 4-5 years of developing players and looking forward to the draft lottery where we constantly get screwed...

            no hope for raps fans.

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            • #7
              C-Low wrote: View Post
              Cuz that's exactly what we want another 4-5 years of developing players and looking forward to the draft lottery where we constantly get screwed...

              no hope for raps fans.
              You'd rather 3 years of scraping to try(not even a sure thing) to get into the 1st rd and lose with Gay as our "franchise" player and a really limited ability to add pieces around whatever core is left beside him...likely Demar, Fields, JV and Lowry (who'll be more expensive to re-sign and also kill some of our flexibility) assuming Lowry is a long term PG. That team might be competitive enough to make the playoffs, but will likely not be able to get better, including through transactions. On the other hand, with a year of development behind them and more or less the same team next year, this team might make the playoffs next year, and have tons of flexibity to improve.

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              • #8
                C-Low wrote: View Post
                Cuz that's exactly what we want another 4-5 years of developing players and looking forward to the draft lottery where we constantly get screwed...

                no hope for raps fans.
                Add Bargs and do something like

                Bargs + Calderone for Gay + Wroten + Pointdexter

                Lucas can play until Wroten's ready.

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                • #9
                  Arsenalist wrote: View Post
                  The Raptors should not be making this trade under any circumstance unless they are sending Andrea Bargnani back instead of Ed Davis.
                  +1

                  i said in the other thread that unless memphis just wants finacial relief we shouldn't be trading the kids away. not worth ed. amir/bargs/klieza/anderson/fields/jose should all be in play but aside form that it's not the best deal for us.

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                  • #10
                    If Ross is not involved, I go after Rudy. Reasons:

                    1) The talent is there.
                    2) Just 26 years old. Get McKechnie devising plan for his shoulder, return to 2010-11 form.
                    3) It has been reported he wants out of MEM for a long time. Only signed extension because, well, would you turn down $80M?
                    4) Change of scenery should do him good (Bargnani is to Toronto as Rudy is to Memphis).
                    5) 6'8" SF with 7'2" wingspan.
                    6) Can Casey get him to buy in? I think so.
                    7) Lowry and Gay best-ies.
                    8) Cap space and flexibility has done what for Toronto in last 3 years? Contract be damned.
                    9) If DeRozan was included in trade, they have enough cap space to go after and talent to entice a FA PF like Paul Millsap this summer.
                    10) If DD is not included and assuming ED is, sending out another $2.5M in the trade off next year (Gray?), amnestying Kleiza, and a bump in the salary cap as expected should lead to enough cap space to make a run at a FA PF like Paul Millsap.

                    *Both 9 and 10 assume Bargnani is gone.


                    In a nutshell if a combination of Calderon/ED/possibly DD/2nd round picks gets you Gay, you do it (obviously a 3rd or 4th team is going to need to be brought in).

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                    • #11
                      AA is playing some amazing D. They mentioned that we were 8-3 with him back. I know Gay is better, but... how much? Will that compensate for losing Davis?

                      I am not so sure about this deal.

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                      • #12
                        Agreed with everything Matt52 said.
                        Mamba Mentality

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                        • #13
                          Keep in mind that the 10-11 Rudy Gay only played 54 games. In fact he has missed at least 20 games in (each of) the last three seasons.

                          A playoff team is not going to trade for him. Unless he is discounted.
                          Last edited by BasketballCrush; Wed Jan 9th, 2013, 10:26 PM.

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                          • #14
                            I think Gay would play great with DeRozan its just that this move will limit Ross minutes. Delmar plays 37 mins right now Gay will be our guy sucking up 30+ himself where does Ross fit in? Unless he wants to experiment with some Rudy playing the 4. I want Gay to be a rap but not at the cost is losing Ross or his development time and everyone is forgetting who takes Calderons spot?

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                            • #15
                              disagree. we have Davis for at least 4 more years and demar for at least 5. depending on how much other teams will offer Davis it's much better to not trade him for gay.

                              I would love gay but not for those guys and if the result is not getting gay let's not get gay. haha
                              Last edited by Miekenstien; Wed Jan 9th, 2013, 11:49 PM.

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