Why is it a good idea to go for two when down three with under 20 seconds in the game. We have been done this in all of the games where we are down 3 in the final 24 seconds to my knowledge. In fairness it has worked, against Washington for example. In my opinion it just gives us less time to get a good shot and I would rather rely on the skills of our own players rather than the other team missing a free throw or two. This could work against particularly poor three point shooting teams, but most teams have at least a few good ft shooters. Also it just means we need to make two shots instead of one.
Im not saying it cant work, but I don't really agree with the call.
If you can get an easy lay up (which happens quite frequently in that situation because the last thing the defence wants to do is give up an And 1 play) then you only need the opposition to miss 1/2 and tying the game becomes a lot easier. Lots of teams do it, not just us. I think the frequency of it occurring will decrease from now on though since the prevalence of the defence fouling when they're up by 3 is increasing.
If you can get an easy lay up (which happens quite frequently in that situation because the last thing the defence wants to do is give up an And 1 play) then you only need the opposition to miss 1/2 and tying the game becomes a lot easier. Lots of teams do it, not just us. I think the frequency of it occurring will decrease from now on though since the prevalence of the defence fouling when they're up by 3 is increasing.
I get the theory, but I just don't really like it. It works in college when there may be one or two good ft shooters per team but in the NBA its typically pretty different. Just guessing here as well, but i would think that the chance of making the initial two point shot is about equal to the other team making their free throws, assuming the defense is really just guarding the three point line. At that point I think it just makes more sense to use more time to get an open three.
Fun part about attempting 2-pointers instead of 3's down 3 is that even if the opposition makes only one of two free throws between the possessions, you have to hit twice instead of once. So the odds stack up - even if we say you have a 60% chance at the first one since they are guarding the three point line, the second time through you might have a 50% chance of scoring (even odds). That makes a 30% chance of getting both scores. And that relies on the opposition missing one free throw (which is only 50/50 if we assume a 75% FT rate). So even if we are really generous and say that on the first possession you can get a practically guaranteed bucket (80% chance of scoring), you are looking at a combined probability of 20%. 20% chance of tying the game.
I have to imagine that you can generate a 20% chance of hitting a three with 20 seconds of clock to play with even if the opposition is denying the long ball.
I have to imagine that you can generate a 20% chance of hitting a three with 20 seconds of clock to play with even if the opposition is denying the long ball.
With Lowry being the only real threat on the court last night, 20% might have been our best look. We really need to generate better looks to get some of other secondary players going. Without Carroll, Patterson or Ross, we really only have Lowry to hit the outside shot.
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If you can get an easy lay up (which happens quite frequently in that situation because the last thing the defence wants to do is give up an And 1 play) then you only need the opposition to miss 1/2 and tying the game becomes a lot easier. Lots of teams do it, not just us. I think the frequency of it occurring will decrease from now on though since the prevalence of the defence fouling when they're up by 3 is increasing.
But do lots of teams do it when they have no timeouts for that final possession? That's what really gets me...
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In the playoffs a quick 2 followed by a play might be used but in the regular season attempting a win or tie with a three just means running a play for three. Teams don't need to practice running a rim run. Run a fucking play
With Lowry being the only real threat on the court last night, 20% might have been our best look. We really need to generate better looks to get some of other secondary players going. Without Carroll, Patterson or Ross, we really only have Lowry to hit the outside shot.
I was watching the gs broadcast yesterday, and they said we are 5th in the league in three point shooting
That made no sense to me, because who on our team actually consistently hits threes? Lowry and sometimes carrol right?
Raptors make about 8 threes a game. Lowry gets 3, Carrol about 2, Ross and Patterson about 1 each. The other 3pt made is split between CoJo, JJ and DD.
But do lots of teams do it when they have no timeouts for that final possession? That's what really gets me...
With no timeouts left and about 10 seconds on the clock, any team in the world would go for 3. Instead, the only other shooters on this damn team (Patterson and Ross!!) were not on the court and Scola is catching the ball from 40 feet out smh
With no timeouts left and about 10 seconds on the clock, any team in the world would go for 3. Instead, the only other shooters on this damn team (Patterson and Ross!!) were not on the court and Scola is catching the ball from 40 feet out smh
If we need a 3 late you should have Ross, Patterson, Lowry, Carroll, DD/Cojo on the court.
In the playoffs a quick 2 followed by a play might be used but in the regular season attempting a win or tie with a three just means running a play for three. Teams don't need to practice running a rim run. Run a fucking play
Thats an interesting point too. It definitely seems Casey isn't the guy who is going to play for the long game. Cares more about winning as much as possible now, which is reasonable, I just don't really agree with it.
Thats an interesting point too. It definitely seems Casey isn't the guy who is going to play for the long game. Cares more about winning as much as possible now, which is reasonable, I just don't really agree with it.
The % don't favor the 2 as much if you break it down. Too much has to go against % to work. Even bad FT shooters hit 50%. A good look by a decent 3pt shooter is 34% and there is always the potential for 2 shots depending on OReb and a good bounce off a miss.
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