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  • As shown, NBA rookies -- even high lottery picks -- usually post starkly negative RPM values. In other words, they are hurting their respective teams more than they are helping. Even among players drafted No. 1 overall, including luminaries such as James, Dwight Howard, Yao Ming, Derrick Rose and Blake Griffin, the average first-year RPM has been an uninspiring minus-1.0. That's the same as the per-possession impact of a mediocre bench player.


    According to RPM, no rookie this millennium -- not even LeBron -- has had a major positive impact on his team.

    The further we descend down the draft order, the lower the rookie RPM ratings fall. In fact, once we drop below the ninth spot in the draft, we find rookies contributing at about replacement level -- on par with D-League call-ups or guys signed off the waiver list.

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    • raptors999 wrote: View Post
      KJ played on the Sixers. Rookies are a huge negative defensively
      He played on the Rockets too, albeit less minutes. Unfortunately he got hurt before the playoffs so we don't know how much they would have used him there. He was a good defender with both teams, but he sucks terribad on offense, so we know all the minutes he got were for defensive purposes because that's all he's good at.
      Last edited by Primer; Mon Nov 16, 2015, 09:42 PM.

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      • Primer wrote: View Post
        He played on the Rockets too, albeit less minutes. Unfortunately he got hurt before the playoffs so we don't know how much they would have used him there. He was a good defender with both teams, but he sucks terribad on offense, so we know all the minutes he got were for defensive purposes because that's all he's good at.
        Dude barely got a contract this year, and sure a lot of it is because his mom is crazy but like literally no team wanted to even give him a flyer.

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        • Letter N wrote: View Post
          Dude barely got a contract this year, and sure a lot of it is because his mom is crazy but like literally no team wanted to even give him a flyer.
          His offense, is so so bad. He makes Biyombo look like an offensive stud. I only brought him up because Raps999 insisted that rookies are never played for defensive purposes. Probably could have picked some better examples but McDaniels jumped to mind.

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          • ^^Justise Winslow, most definitely. Is this Portis thing still going? lol.
            Last edited by golden; Mon Nov 16, 2015, 10:37 PM.

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            • Primer wrote: View Post
              His offense, is so so bad. He makes Biyombo look like an offensive stud. I only brought him up because Raps999 insisted that rookies are never played for defensive purposes. Probably could have picked some better examples but McDaniels jumped to mind.
              No rookie has ever posted a positive RPM ever, not even LeBron since they've been tracking it. They may do other things but they are defensive liabilities

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              • golden wrote: View Post
                ^^Justise Winslow, most definitely. Is this Portis thing still going? lol.
                Winslow will not play over a healthy Deng in crunch minutes and I really high on him.

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                • raptors999 wrote: View Post
                  No rookie has ever posted a positive RPM ever, not even LeBron since they've been tracking it. They may do other things but they are defensive liabilities
                  You do know RPM takes offense into account as well right, equal amount as defense. It's their Plus/Minus when they're on the floor, so if they score more points on offense then they give up on defense they are a positive. That's why there is an ORPM and DRPM that are used to calculate RPM.

                  Here is the definition from ESPN:

                  RPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents and additional factors

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                  • Primer wrote: View Post
                    You do know RPM takes offense into account as well right, equal amount as defense. It's their Plus/Minus when they're on the floor, so if they score more points on offense then they give up on defense they are a positive. That's why there is an ORPM and DRPM that are used to calculate RPM.

                    Here is the definition from ESPN:

                    RPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents and additional factors
                    Generally rookies are a net negative and lower picks a bigger negative. The negative RPM is because of defense. Veterans eyes light up seeing rookies for a reason. Even if they play decent D they'll pick up fouls just for being rookies

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                    • raptors999 wrote: View Post
                      Generally rookies are a net negative and lower picks a bigger negative. The negative RPM is because of defense. Veterans eyes light up seeing rookies for a reason. Even if they play decent D they'll pick up fouls just for being rookies
                      Most rookies aren't a positive on defense, but then again, most of the NBA isn't either. Only 194 out of 474 players posted a positive DRPM. Some rookies were really good defenders though.

                      Here are rookies who posted positive DRPM last season (measures defense).

                      Jusuf Nurkic 4.02 (9th best in the NBA)
                      Elijah Milsap 3.42 (18th in the NBA)
                      Nerlens Noel 3.35 (19th in the NBA)
                      Nikola Mirotic 1.75 (67th in the NBA)
                      Cory Jefferson 1.53 (79th in the NBA)
                      Jerami Grant 1.12 (100th in the NBA)
                      Marcus Smart 1.05 (102nd in the NBA)
                      Elfrid Payton 0.87 (121st in the NBA)
                      Jarnell Stokes 0.76 (129th in the NBA)
                      Jack Cooley 0.66 (138th in the NBA)
                      Clint Capela 0.49 (145th in the NBA)
                      Shabazz Napier 0.37 (157th in the NBA)
                      Mitch McGary 0.35 (160th in the NBA)

                      And a few more guys at just above 0.

                      I'm sure if I did the same analysis for ORPM you'd find just as few rookies who posted a positive number, rookies just aren't that useful in general. There are tons of 2nd year players who post positive numbers though, so the 1st year is clearly a steep learning curve followed by being a regular contributor.

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                      • A quick thought. We are on a tough stretch of games. It is possible we could lose 7 in a row. Yes I know Laker game SHOULD be a win but we lost at LAL to scrubs and LAL have played well last two games. At that point we could be 7-10 ....

                        At SAC L
                        At GS L
                        At Utah. --Utah well rested we are on a back to back
                        At LAL Kobe goes for 40
                        At LAC. Blake Griffen goes do 36
                        vs CLE. Over matched
                        At Wash Beal and Wall >Lowry and DD

                        I would have to believe the pressure on MU would be tremendous to fire DD. It certainly would seem we are just seeing a continuation of the last 3-1/2 months of last season.

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                        • It's still early in the season, but here are the numbers so far:

                          Greivis Vasquez - 2014/15 Ast%: 23.9 2015/16: 30.5

                          Lou Williams - 2014/15 Ast%: 13.6 2015/16: 18.3
                          "Stop eating your sushi."
                          "I do actually have a pair of Uggs."
                          "I've had three cups of green tea tonight. I'm wired. I'm absolutely wired."
                          - Jack Armstrong

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                          • JimiCliff wrote: View Post
                            It's still early in the season, but here are the numbers so far:

                            Greivis Vasquez - 2014/15 Ast%: 23.9 2015/16: 30.5

                            Lou Williams - 2014/15 Ast%: 13.6 2015/16: 18.3

                            pound the rock

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                            • Potential replacement: Patrick Ewing?

                              I'm tired of the Raptors organization being a yes-player team and want a head coach that will give it to our players straight. No BS.

                              Thoughts?

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                              • OldSkoolCool wrote: View Post
                                Potential replacement: Patrick Ewing?

                                I'm tired of the Raptors organization being a yes-player team and want a head coach that will give it to our players straight. No BS.

                                Thoughts?
                                #AnyoneButCasey

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