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DanH wrote: View PostThat's all from this season.
We do get run to heck with JV on the floor though, to the tune of 23 FBPs/100 possessions. And only 11 with Serge on the floor.
Some of that is bench versus starters as well - JV when playing with Lowry and Leonard sees his opponent fast break points drop to 15 per 100 possessions. And Serge without Lowry and Leonard sees his jump from 9 to 16. But there is definitely an impact going from JV to Serge. About 50% more FBPs with JV on the floor than Serge.
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LJ2 wrote: View PostI still think they have to find a way to keep JV on the court more, but that is some pretty damning evidence.
Giving up transition O is often a sign of ugly offence. I wonder how many opportunities other teams are getting because of poor execution from guys like Miles, Powell and Brown. Bad turnovers and bad shots that lead to run outs.
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LJ2 wrote: View PostI still think they have to find a way to keep JV on the court more, but that is some pretty damning evidence.
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DanH wrote: View PostKind of. But there are weaknesses to other groups that counter balance that. For example, the 5 man units with Serge at C versus with JV at C have a DRTG difference of only 3 points (96.4 vs 93.5) so far. And the JV version gives up 9 more FBPs per 100 possessions. Meaning in the half court they are significantly better (largely because of a 9 point drop in points in the paint allowed). Every lineup has its strengths and weaknesses. But this early in the season, parsing lineups to details beyond how much they win their minutes by is probably not a good idea. Even the lineup net ratings are very much in take-with-salt territory.
Again, giving up points in transition is often more due to poor offensive execution... live ball turnovers, bad shots that lead to run outs off long rebounds, and generally disorganized offence that leads to not having guys in a good position to run back.
We have fewer of those issues right now with the starting unit. This also means that even when teams try to run, guys like Green, Leonard and Siakam have a better chance of getting back to make a play on D.
So even if Serge is better for our transition D, it is probably not that significant a bump, and the gap is likely due to the mess of units that have been getting time together with JV on the court. Even some of the units that have JV, Lowry and Leonard can be a bit ugly with guys like Brown, Miles or Powell filling other spots.
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white men can't jump wrote: View PostAlso, no matter how you look at it, transition D is hard to pin in a big man.
Again, giving up points in transition is often more due to poor offensive execution... live ball turnovers, bad shots that lead to run outs off long rebounds, and generally disorganized offence that leads to not having guys in a good position to run back.
We have fewer of those issues right now with the starting unit. This also means that even when teams try to run, guys like Green, Leonard and Siakam have a better chance of getting back to make a play on D.
So even if Serge is better for our transition D, it is probably not that significant a bump, and the gap is likely due to the mess of units that have been getting time together with JV on the court. Even some of the units that have JV, Lowry and Leonard can be a bit ugly with guys like Brown, Miles or Powell filling other spots.
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It's also super early and these numbers could swing wildly with every game played.
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DanH wrote: View PostThere's definitely a lot of that. I do think JV is weak in transition, partly because he tends to be under the basket looking for rebounds rather than out in the midrange or at the arc like Serge, and partly because he is indeed slower than a lot of players. But every player has a weakness, and transition D is just one facet of defence.
It's also super early and these numbers could swing wildly with every game played.
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white men can't jump wrote: View PostJV is most definitely weak in transition. All I'm saying is the difference in numbers has little or nothing to do with how either him or Serge is performing in that aspect of the game.
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DanH wrote: View PostYeah, as I outlined, the big raw difference is mostly bench versus starters. But isolating for starters only and bench only, you still see the drop off from Serge to JV. It's just about 50%, rather than like 250%.
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In case you missed it, the Raptors won Halloween.
— Yahoo Canada Sports (@YahooCASports) November 1, 2018
(Even Kawhi dressed up) 😲 pic.twitter.com/BUNRS675fuMamba Mentality
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white men can't jump wrote: View PostWell I saw you adjust for Lowry and Leonard, but not sure if that accounts for the other 2 spots on the court. Pascal+Green are both playing well, and Miles, Brown and Powell are for the most part complete trash (Powell has been the best out of those guys and still not great or consistent). Also Pascal and Green are two of the best transition defenders we have.
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Lowry-Green-Leonard-Siakam-Ibaka: 79 MP, 5.9 FBP/100
Lowry-Green-Leonard-Siakam-Valanciunas: 39 MP, 15.3 FBP/100
Those extra spots on the court have largely followed Lowry and Leonard, with few exceptions, so I just used them to give a somewhat bigger sample. The issue with the numbers isn't the filtering, but the sample size, which is still really small.
In any case, like I mentioned, the overall DRTG between the two groups is very similar, so obviously the transition defence isn't killing them in either case. And you have to look mostly at the bigger picture this early in the season - zoom in and you mostly get noise. Heck, it's a lot of noise when zoomed out.
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Fury wrote: View PostIn case you missed it, the Raptors won Halloween.
— Yahoo Canada Sports (@YahooCASports) November 1, 2018
(Even Kawhi dressed up) pic.twitter.com/BUNRS675fu9 time first team all-RR, First Ballot Hall of Forum
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