Everything Derozan

[KeonClark]

Yeah, I've pointed out that stat previously. DeMar's an AWFUL pull-up shooter, but has been a decent catch and shoot guy for a few years.

The cautionary tale here, obviously, is that we're talking about a guy having the best two month shooting stretch from three of his career, and some regression at some point wouldn't be terribly shocking.

I'm not sure there's any precedent for someone suddenly getting 5% better than he's ever been from 3 in the middle of a season and sustaining that improvement long term.

But there is a shit ton of precedent for guys developing range as their career progresses

[SkywalkerAC]

Yeah, I've pointed out that stat previously. DeMar's an AWFUL pull-up shooter, but has been a decent catch and shoot guy for a few years.

The cautionary tale here, obviously, is that we're talking about a guy having the best two month shooting stretch from three of his career, and some regression at some point wouldn't be terribly shocking.

I'm not sure there's any precedent for someone suddenly getting 5% better than he's ever been from 3 in the middle of a season and sustaining that improvement long term.

I think that if you looked at power forwards, who come to the 3-ball late as DeMar has, you'd see more of this kind of trend. Marion is good example of someone who found his shot (for a number of years) after starting his career shooting horribly.

[Barolt]

But there is a shit ton of precedent for guys developing range as their career progresses

In small increments, sure. Not in massive steps. So while DeMar is likely better this year from 3, let's keep in mind he shot 19% from 3 in November and 28% from 3 in December. I'd actually expect him to regress slightly and settle in at 31% or so for the season, which would indicate a 3% increase from last year.

Right now he's at 8% above where he was last year, which seems too high for one season of improvement.

[Barolt]

I think that if you looked at power forwards, who come to the 3-ball late as DeMar has, you'd see more of this kind of trend. Marion is good example of someone who found his shot (for a number of years) after starting his career shooting horribly.

As a 23 year old in his 3rd season, Shawn Marion shot 39.3% from 3 on 1.5 attempts per game, his best season of his career.

[SkywalkerAC]

In small increments, sure. Not in massive steps. So while DeMar is likely better this year from 3, let's keep in mind he shot 19% from 3 in November and 28% from 3 in December. I'd actually expect him to regress slightly and settle in at 31% or so for the season, which would indicate a 3% increase from last year.

Right now he's at 8% above where he was last year, which seems too high for one season of improvement.

But this is why many said you should probably discount last season, with his injury and struggles overall. If you look at the way he closed last year, together with 2013-2014, he's right on trend.

[SkywalkerAC]

As a 23 year old in his 3rd season, Shawn Marion shot 39.3% from 3 on 1.5 attempts per game, his best season of his career.

Yup, a 14% increase from the previous year, establishing a range (33-39%) he was able to maintain for a number of seasons.

[Barolt]

But this is why many said you should probably discount last season, with his injury and struggles overall. If you look at the way he closed last year, together with 2013-2014, he's right on trend.

Yes, but... sample size still plays into this somewhat, because DeMar still doesn't take that many 3s. Even the last two months where he's shown this improvement, he's 24/54 from three. That 44.4% mark looks impressive, but if he goes 0/4 over the next 2 games from downtown, suddenly he's down to 41% over that stretch.

That's why the numbers are unreliable to me, it wouldn't take more than a 4-5 game stretch of him missing most of his attempts to tank his percentage hard for the season.

I do believe DeMar is a better 3pt shooter this season, I'm just not sure I beleve that a guy who's never hit at better than a 30% clip in his career is suddenly a 36%+ 3pt shooter. I think the truth probably sits closer to 33%, because I think a 3% improvement is a more sustainable, while still impressive, one.

[Barolt]

Yup, a 14% increase from the previous year, establishing a range (33-39%) he was able to maintain for a number of seasons.

The thing is, before that 3rd season, Marion had taken a total of 104 3pt attempts in his career. So we didn't have enough data to say ANYTHING prior to that. DeMar had taken 578 3pt attempts prior to this season, and never hit more than 30.5% in a single season.

[KeonClark]

The thing is, before that 3rd season, Marion had taken a total of 104 3pt attempts in his career. So we didn't have enough data to say ANYTHING prior to that. DeMar had taken 578 3pt attempts prior to this season, and never hit more than 30.5% in a single season.

Not shooting them probably means you can't shoot them.
There is plenty more examples I'm just too lazy to look up. Kevin love. Patrick patterson. Chris bosh..

[Barolt]

Not shooting them probably means you can't shoot them.
There is plenty more examples I'm just too lazy to look up. Kevin love. Patrick patterson. Chris bosh..

The thing is, most of the examples tend to be big guys who started shooting 3s late in their career, and they almost always have one thing in common; being very good 16-23ft shooters before they started shooting 3s. Most of those guys were 40-45%+ from 16-23ft before they were 3pt shooters.

DeMar is awful from 16-23ft, which makes it more interesting. He's been above 40% from that range once in his career, and is currently shooting below his career average from that range.

Again, I still believe DeMar's a better 3pt shooter this year, just not as good as he looks right now.

[tDotted]

The thing is, most of the examples tend to be big guys who started shooting 3s late in their career, and they almost always have one thing in common; being very good 16-23ft shooters before they started shooting 3s. Most of those guys were 40-45%+ from 16-23ft before they were 3pt shooters.

DeMar is awful from 16-23ft, which makes it more interesting. He's been above 40% from that range once in his career, and is currently shooting below his career average from that range.

Again, I still believe DeMar's a better 3pt shooter this year, just not as good as he looks right now.

Decent sure.... I dunno about awful. Majority of high volume mid range shooters average around 40% from there.. and he's 38% from there for his career. In February, he's at 47%. That's awesome. Coupled with the 50% 3P% this month as well, it's like he's hitting all his jumpshots out there

[JWash]

Decent sure.... I dunno about awful. Majority of high volume mid range shooters average around 40% from there.. and he's 38% from there for his career. In February, he's at 47%. That's awesome. Coupled with the 50% 3P% this month as well, it's like he's hitting all his jumpshots out there

Way too much hyperbole with "awful" lol definitely.

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[Barolt]

Way too much hyperbole with "awful" lol definitely.

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Well, 36% this season isn't good. But sure, "below average" would've been a better descriptor.

[SkywalkerAC]

The thing is, most of the examples tend to be big guys who started shooting 3s late in their career, and they almost always have one thing in common; being very good 16-23ft shooters before they started shooting 3s. Most of those guys were 40-45%+ from 16-23ft before they were 3pt shooters.

DeMar is awful from 16-23ft, which makes it more interesting. He's been above 40% from that range once in his career, and is currently shooting below his career average from that range.

Again, I still believe DeMar's a better 3pt shooter this year, just not as good as he looks right now.

How are DeMar's catch & shoot numbers from 16-23 ft, I wonder? You do know that he isn't actually "awful" from that range, and is likely a lights-out shooter from there in a practice setting, right?

I'm with you that DeMar's numbers can't be counted on as stable. I was horrified with his 3-point form to start the season.

But he always seems to come on strong down the stretch, so I wouldn't write off his recent success either. He looks solid, strong out there, and it's really showing in his shot.

The leg-kicking catapult-motion is hopefully behind us. Knock on wood.

[Barolt]

http://www.austinclemens.com/shotcharts/#players

Pull up DeMar on there. He's good from the right elbow at midrange. All his other percentages are 34-39%.