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  • Joey wrote: View Post
    45% from 3 over the last 10 games.

    34.6% from 3 on the Season.


    Does the opposition now have to at least respect his shot?
    If they don't, he's been making them pay. Pretty great improvement from him. His range has improved - he is really killing it from the corners (there's been signs of that for a few years now) and is still pretty bad from above the break (28%) but nowhere near the level of awful he's been from out there for his career (10% last season).
    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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    • Barolt wrote: View Post
      He's making 0.6 per game on the season.

      Quantity matters almost as much as quality in terms of gravity.
      But that just says thats its not used as his main weapon .. percentages still say he hits it at a high enough clip that he can hurt you, no?

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      • Barolt wrote: View Post
        He's making 0.6 per game on the season.

        Quantity matters almost as much as quality in terms of gravity.
        I'd agree with this too. But keep in mind, DeMar has a different sort of gravity. Can't give that guy the ball with room to pick up a head of steam.
        twitter.com/dhackett1565

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        • DanH wrote: View Post
          I'd agree with this too. But keep in mind, DeMar has a different sort of gravity. Can't give that guy the ball with room to pick up a head of steam.
          This is fair, but that's not about respecting the shot, which was Joey's question.
          twitter.com/anthonysmdoyle

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          • Joey wrote: View Post
            But that just says thats its not used as his main weapon .. percentages still say he hits it at a high enough clip that he can hurt you, no?
            DanH wrote: View Post
            I'd agree with this too. But keep in mind, DeMar has a different sort of gravity. Can't give that guy the ball with room to pick up a head of steam.
            There's no doubt that it's just another weapon in his arsenal, which can only serve to help him score more efficiently.

            I still say that DeRozan's greatest strength, both for the team overall and to help maximize his scoring in terms of both effectiveness and efficiency, is when he plays the role of facilitator. When he becomes as much of a threat to setup a teammate for an easy look (or to make the first of several passes to accomplish the same) as he is to score himself, there's nothing that defenses can really do to defend him.

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            • Barolt wrote: View Post
              This is fair, but that's not about respecting the shot, which was Joey's question.
              So you're saying that teams can/should just leave him open, even still, from the 3 point line?

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              • CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
                There's no doubt that it's just another weapon in his arsenal, which can only serve to help him score more efficiently.

                I still say that DeRozan's greatest strength, both for the team overall and to help maximize his scoring in terms of both effectiveness and efficiency, is when he plays the role of facilitator. When he becomes as much of a threat to setup a teammate for an easy look (or to make the first of several passes to accomplish the same) as he is to score himself, there's nothing that defenses can really do to defend him.
                While I do agree, I think its a tie between the two .. being a facilitator still requires that his teammates be in the right spot, and the defense must also recognize this. If Demar can shoot when played for the drive, or drive when played for the shot, I think that makes him the most dangerous. He will always have one of these two options available to him, when he has the ball. He won't always have the option, nor will it always be the right play, to pass it. Especially with Caseys system.

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                • Joey wrote: View Post
                  So you're saying that teams can/should just leave him open, even still, from the 3 point line?
                  There's different levels of respect. Do you leave him open? No, because you respect the drive. But on a pick and roll, do you go over because you're afraid of his pull-up 3? Not a chance.
                  twitter.com/anthonysmdoyle

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                  • re from your post in the Powell thread wrt to DD...so I moved it here

                    Scraptor wrote: View Post
                    I don't think we'd be a lotto team without him, but to say he has no impact on winning is ridiculous.

                    8th in the NBA in scoring, 13th in win shares, >2700 minutes for the 5th best team record-wise in the NBA. He has more win shares than Paul George and Jimmy Butler. I'm not saying that he's better than either guy, but shouldn't that at least tell you he's doing something right?

                    You're so anchored to an outdated view of Demar it's keeping you from seeing that he does help this team. Maybe not at a true max level like a KD or a LeBron, but he does have an impact on winning.

                    If it was so easy to do what he's been doing, everybody would be doing it.
                    On-court ORAT = 110.3
                    Off-court ORAT = 110.1

                    Net Rating (including DRAT) = -6.0 (ie better off the court)

                    But wait, on/off numbers will be skewed by Scola starting! Let's proof it.

                    JV+Scola 2 man has played a total of 60% of JV minutes together and is the Raptors WORST 2 man lineup. DD+Scola accounts for 52.5% of DD's minutes, and is the second worst. So a fairly even comparison, even though the Scola impact will affect JV more than DD...so the numbers should be in his favor right?

                    JV On-court ORAT = 112.9
                    JV Of-court ORAT = 108.5

                    JV Net Rating (including DRAT) = -1.2 (ie better off the court)

                    For reference: Scola's Net = -9.7

                    So no, DD isn't being drug down by Scola all that much. Ok he can't carry the old Argentinian, nobody but Lowry can, so let's look at a different angle.

                    Lineups

                    DD is only featured in the following number of the top ten lineups for:

                    2-man lineups: 1/10!
                    3-man lineups: 2/10!
                    4-man lineups: 5/10
                    5-man lineups: 8/10

                    Of the 5 four man lineups that DD is in the top ten, the only one in the top five (+16.6) for DD he is playing with the Joseph-Lowry-Patterson group, the second best 3 man group on the team (+16.6). So, no difference adding an all-star. Net neutral.

                    The 5 man lineups is hard to find a pattern, the DD-Lowry-Ross-Patterson-JV lineup is so good (+35.7)....so swap out DD for CoJo and we are (FYI these are compared to the opponent team):

                    +10 in 3PFA
                    +3.2 in AST
                    +4.7 in STL
                    -2.0 in RBD
                    +2.0 in TOV
                    -20 in FTA <---(LOL)
                    -0.01 in eFG

                    So essentially with CoJo vs DD, we attempt a shit ton more threes with CoJo out there than DD compared to our opponents. This may be a combination of holding down their attempts while having an uptick in ours...though it aint coming from CoJo as he attempts less per game than DD. So DD doesn't help getting our shooters more shots or stop teams from attempting them.

                    But he is a good passer...well again, we are better with CoJo penetrating and kicking than DD.

                    We are better generating steals/committing less TOV with CoJo vs DD

                    We lose out on rebounding as he is good at that compared to CoJo

                    And we lose out massively in the FTA's category when DD is off the court...as we all know.

                    Summary

                    Holistically, what I see on the court from him, and what we see from our numbers, is that DD doesn't really impact the Toronto Raptors like a max player should (cough Lowry cough).

                    So, during his best season, DD is largely meh in an offense completely designed to benefit him, where in such offense if it weren't for his ability to draw fouls, CoJo would do it better.

                    And don't get me started defensively..

                    Overall, the team that pays him max money is going to regret it because they will lose out on spending that money on actual productive players

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                    • OldSkoolCool wrote: View Post
                      re from your post in the Powell thread wrt to DD...so I moved it here



                      On-court ORAT = 110.3
                      Off-court ORAT = 110.1

                      Net Rating (including DRAT) = -6.0 (ie better off the court)

                      But wait, on/off numbers will be skewed by Scola starting! Let's proof it.

                      JV+Scola 2 man has played a total of 60% of JV minutes together and is the Raptors WORST 2 man lineup. DD+Scola accounts for 52.5% of DD's minutes, and is the second worst. So a fairly even comparison, even though the Scola impact will affect JV more than DD...so the numbers should be in his favor right?

                      JV On-court ORAT = 112.9
                      JV Of-court ORAT = 108.5

                      JV Net Rating (including DRAT) = -1.2 (ie better off the court)

                      For reference: Scola's Net = -9.7

                      So no, DD isn't being drug down by Scola all that much. Ok he can't carry the old Argentinian, nobody but Lowry can, so let's look at a different angle.

                      Lineups

                      DD is only featured in the following number of the top ten lineups for:

                      2-man lineups: 1/10!
                      3-man lineups: 2/10!
                      4-man lineups: 5/10
                      5-man lineups: 8/10

                      Of the 5 four man lineups that DD is in the top ten, the only one in the top five (+16.6) for DD he is playing with the Joseph-Lowry-Patterson group, the second best 3 man group on the team (+16.6). So, no difference adding an all-star. Net neutral.

                      The 5 man lineups is hard to find a pattern, the DD-Lowry-Ross-Patterson-JV lineup is so good (+35.7)....so swap out DD for CoJo and we are (FYI these are compared to the opponent team):

                      +10 in 3PFA
                      +3.2 in AST
                      +4.7 in STL
                      -2.0 in RBD
                      +2.0 in TOV
                      -20 in FTA <---(LOL)
                      -0.01 in eFG

                      So essentially with CoJo vs DD, we attempt a shit ton more threes with CoJo out there than DD compared to our opponents. This may be a combination of holding down their attempts while having an uptick in ours...though it aint coming from CoJo as he attempts less per game than DD. So DD doesn't help getting our shooters more shots or stop teams from attempting them.

                      But he is a good passer...well again, we are better with CoJo penetrating and kicking than DD.

                      We are better generating steals/committing less TOV with CoJo vs DD

                      We lose out on rebounding as he is good at that compared to CoJo

                      And we lose out massively in the FTA's category when DD is off the court...as we all know.

                      Summary

                      Holistically, what I see on the court from him, and what we see from our numbers, is that DD doesn't really impact the Toronto Raptors like a max player should (cough Lowry cough).

                      So, during his best season, DD is largely meh in an offense completely designed to benefit him, where in such offense if it weren't for his ability to draw fouls, CoJo would do it better.

                      And don't get me started defensively..

                      Overall, the team that pays him max money is going to regret it because they will lose out on spending that money on actual productive players
                      good post. i was ready to call bullshit when the "i don't have the time right now" line came up.

                      i am still somewhat optimistic that dd doesn't sign for the full max but i wouldn't scoff at giving it to him.

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                      • OldSkoolCool wrote: View Post
                        re from your post in the Powell thread wrt to DD...so I moved it here

                        On-court ORAT = 110.3
                        Off-court ORAT = 110.1

                        Net Rating (including DRAT) = -6.0 (ie better off the court)
                        Anthony Davis has a -4.9 on-court net rating this year. His off-court net rating is -2.1.

                        Is that team better without Anthony Davis? No, that's ridiculous. They fail with him on the court, and they fail without him, just by less because those minutes are often against crappier units.

                        Millsap, +4.2 on court, +4.9 off. Lillard, +0.7 on, 0.0 off. Aldridge, +13.0 on, +12.2 off.

                        And none of these players have Dwane Casey seemingly intentionally sabotaging their lineups' ability to play well.

                        Role is a huge factor in these things. Should you try stuff that lineup data points towards? Yes, absolutely, to see if it holds up with roles changing. But we already saw what happens to Lowry if you try to go without DD for a couple months - the second half of last season and that abomination of a playoffs series happens. And you can say that others could pick up the slack instead of Lowry but there's no PROOF of that - maybe they can't. I have every confidence in JV - but in his teammates' ability to get the ball to him? Lowry might be the one that takes up the load of running all the action to set up JV post ups and PnR's, which means a large workload once again.

                        But yeah, maybe not. Maybe the team would actually be better than they are without DD. But don't pretend that on-off splits for a top minutes player actually tells you anything when that player is so integral to everything the team does. Especially when there is a clear reason for that split - the magical Lowry plus bench unit (magical in the sense that we run out a borderline MVP candidate against other teams bench players so often that he ends up top 2 in minutes played per game, which is stupid for myriad reasons and why we see extreme plus minus splits on the team).

                        DeRozan's on-court net rating is +2.9. And yes, a large part of that is Scola - not just playing beside Scola but specifically playing in that starting lineup, Scola's not really as much of an issue when playing against bench units. DeMar playing beside Scola, JV/BB and Lowry has happened for 1144 minutes. The KL+LS+JV/BB threesome has played only 1209 minutes together. That's practically every minute of that horrendous combination that DD is shackled to. Take out his minutes with that unit and he's got 1500+ minutes where he's posting a +7.8 net rating.

                        Meanwhile, DD's off court numbers total 1004 minutes. Of those 1004 minutes, a full 297 of them are the +16 net rating magical bench unit. Take that out and his other off-court numbers total +3.3 net rating, eerily similar to his on-court net ratings, even WITH that horrendous starting lineup skewing his numbers.

                        DeMar is NOT a big impact superstar. Don't get me wrong. But he's a very good player who can handle an extraordinary offensive load - high usage with solid efficiency, while playmaking fairly well and rarely turning the ball over. He's the player that Lowry needs beside him to BE the big impact superstar we have for a full 82 games. And in the meantime he's not hurting the team at all on the court, unlike in previous years.

                        When the tradeoff was watching DeMar chuck away valuable possessions just to keep Lowry's workload down? I was with you, there was no future there. But that's not what's happening this year. Is he worth what LeBron is worth, or Curry? No. He's not even worth what Lowry is worth. But he's worth keeping, and paying a sub-max salary to do so (which is what his salary will be one year into his new deal). Especially since this summer we have Lowry locked into a far sub-max deal when he is easily worth the max, and will probably have him re-sign on another sub-max (though not so extremely) deal the following summer due to the depth of PG's in the league right now.

                        Throw in the increasing effectiveness of his play with JV, and I'm having a hard time seeing how him staying isn't what's best at this point.

                        That said, I think I might agree with you that another team paying him the max might regret it - he has a very specific skillset that is finally being put to good use beside a player that can take advantage of it. A new team might not have that right away or ever, in which case he possibly causes issues.
                        twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                        • OldSkoolCool wrote: View Post
                          Overall, the team that pays him max money is going to regret it because they will lose out on spending that money on actual productive players
                          If MU renounces DD and has the $15 million or so to spend on "actual productive players", aren't there about 20 (or more) other teams with at least as much cap space this off season? How many "actual productive players" that fit our needs are going to be available and by how much will they end up being overpaid?
                          If we knew half as much about coaching an NBA team as we think, we"d know twice as much as we do.

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                          • Nice post Dan. I appreciate the effort put in by you and OSC to make this an intelligent discussion.

                            The one concern I have about handing DeRozan a max contract, is if a new coach comes in and installs a new offense, where DeRozan's role/usage changes. OSC raises a valid point that this offense is definitely focused on putting the guards in the spotlight, with the rest of the lineup playing a supporting role.

                            If a new coach wants a more team-oriented offense, sees JV as an up-and-coming star and wants to increase his role/usage, has another young stud from the upcoming draft to work into the lineup, etc... does DeRozan have the same value?

                            There's no doubt that DeRozan thrives with heavy usage, as the team's #1 scoring option. If he's suddenly asked to play a reduced role, will he still be the same impact scorer? One of the biggest knocks on DeRozan over the years is that he doesn't really consistently offer a lot beyond scoring; average defense at best, not a great rebounder, not many assists, poor off-the-ball player.

                            The addition of a reliable 3pt shot (though he still doesn't use it enough to be considered an outside off-ball threat) and his improving ability to be a facilitator (I posted a couple days ago that I thought this was the biggest improvement in his game) have definitely improved his overall game this year, effectively checking off the last two concerns noted above.

                            Unless a fantastic S&T opportunity comes along, I still think the best use of asset management is to re-sign him, but I do understand the fear that he isn't (or won't be) worth such a significant portion of the team's salary cap. With limited options available to improve the team by addressing other weaknesses, DeRozan's contact expiring, and the Raptors being deep at the guard/wing positions, it makes sense why DeRozan's future is under such scrutiny.
                            Last edited by CalgaryRapsFan; Thu Apr 7, 2016, 10:12 AM.

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                            • 1. While I do believe that some sort of adjusted plus/minus is probably, eventually going to be the best way to gauge a player, I have serious issues with on/off and +/- numbers. I always use the example of putting me as the starting SG on an NBA team and then trying and use on/off stats to measure the players around me or, alternatively, putting Lebron James on a rec league team and evaluating his teammates based on their on/off numbers. These extreme examples illustrate some of the more obvious problems with on/off numbers in trying to evaluate players.

                              2. To suggest Derozan is not a productive player is beyond ridiculous. He's putting up 24/4/4 on solid shooting numbers and he's getting to the line at a ridiculous rate. He's also a workhorse in terms of games and minutes played. He's extremely productive. You may not like how he plays or think he isn't worth $20M+ per year or think he can be replaced, etc. but those are very different arguments than suggesting he isn't productive.

                              3. Derozan is worth whatever someone will pay him. In this market, he is a max player, or close thereto. He may give a small discount to Toronto but no one else is getting him for less than max money. Is he a franchise changing superstar a la Lebron? No, but he is a max player in today's NBA.

                              4. I firmly believe that a deal is already done in principal or else they would have dealt him last offseason. MU saw the BC/Bosh fiasco up close and personal and lived the Melo experience firsthand. No way he lets DD walk as a free agent. It ain't happening.

                              5. The NBA does not play 2-on-2, 3-on-3 or 4-on-4. I suppose some of those numbers might be interesting for various purposes but they don't tell us how good a player is.

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                              • @slaw: The question to me isn't ever DeMar's impact on the offensive end this season. He's good to great there.

                                It's whether or not he gives back just as much on the other end on a regular basis, which can be argued. He's had stretches this year of being a painfully bad defender. Yes, he's had his moments of stellar defense, but it feels, to me at least, like the bad defense is more common than the good this year.
                                twitter.com/anthonysmdoyle

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