Everything Derozan

[white men can't jump]

Nah, DeRozan's been better this year. He's up in PER, W/S, TS% over last year. I'm not a huge fan of his skill set, and that's more my issue than anything, but he's been very efficient at using it this season. I'd still like to see our offence get better at generating good shots for other guys, but that's on Casey, not DeMar.

And most all of his numbers (including at least PER and WS/48) have been dropping since his good start to the year. In other words, he started the season playing atypically well by his standards, and since his numbers have been dropping back toward his typical ranges. So it's not like this season has seen a continued new level of excellence from DeMar. No, he played abnormally well, and his numbers are dropping since because he's playing a lot like he always has for the most part.

*I haven't seen anything to suggest a sustained change in his game or anything that makes him significantly more effective.

[Primer]

And most all of his numbers (including at least PER and WS/48) have been dropping since his good start to the year. In other words, he started the season playing atypically well by his standards, and since his numbers have been dropping back toward his typical ranges. So it's not like this season has seen a continued new level of excellence from DeMar. No, he played abnormally well, and his numbers are dropping since because he's playing a lot like he always has for the most part.

This is just completely false. I'm looking at his numbers right now, and they're all at season high's, therefore trending up. (I know for a fact he has not had a WS/48 as high as it is now).

Maybe I should start posting them periodically so people can't randomly claim he's trending down.

As of 12PM on December 14th
PER 20.4
TS% .539
WS/48 .160
WS 3
ORtg 110
DRtg 105

[Barolt]

This is just completely false. I'm looking at his numbers right now, and they're all at season high's, therefore trending up. (I know for a fact he has not had a WS/48 as high as it is now).

Maybe I should start posting them periodically so people can't randomly claim he's trending down.

As of 12PM on December 14th
PER 20.4
TS% .539
WS/48 .160
WS 3
ORtg 110
DRtg 105

To be a little bit fair here, his numbers are bound to be up when he's coming off one of his most efficient games of the season. If you'd posted the numbers right after the Golden State game, for instance, they would've looked down.

[Axel]

To be a little bit fair here, his numbers are bound to be up when he's coming off one of his most efficient games of the season. If you'd posted the numbers right after the Golden State game, for instance, they would've looked down.

His shooting %s are up in December, except for his 3P which he simply has cut out (1 attempt per). His TS% has been 56.3% this month (7 games).

[Barolt]

His shooting %s are up in December, except for his 3P which he simply has cut out (1 attempt per). His TS% has been 56.3% this month (7 games).

Just out of curiousity, if you removed the last 2 games, where he's shot an extremely high # of FTs, what would it look like? He's undeniably been very good the last 2 games, I'm just curious.

I'm very happy about him cutting the 3P this month though, he's just not good at it.

[white men can't jump]

This is just completely false. I'm looking at his numbers right now, and they're all at season high's, therefore trending up. (I know for a fact he has not had a WS/48 as high as it is now).

Maybe I should start posting them periodically so people can't randomly claim he's trending down.

As of 12PM on December 14th
PER 20.4
TS% .539
WS/48 .160
WS 3
ORtg 110
DRtg 105

Well I didn't look it up because I distinctly remember him starting the season with a PER over 20 and a WS/48 well over .200 (there was much discussion of this because it was the first time the latter had ever gone that high in his whole career, so you "knowing that for a fact it's never been as high as it is now" is a pretty random claim if anyone's making random claims here). Even if that only lasts a handful of games, in a season still 25 games young, that has a pretty big influence.

So it wasn't a random claim. It was totally based on what his numbers were at the start of the season vs. now. Unfortunately I know of no way to sort those numbers on bbref by date and NBA.com doesn't use WS or PER. I am 100% positive his PER was in the low-mid20s (which it had never been) and his WS/48 was over .200 (which it also had never been). *What I am not positive on is how many games each of those situations lasted.

*Meanwhile this doesn't account for shot selection, which was something people are claiming is on the right track this year, but for this again, he was shooting well under 20% of his shots from 16-23 ft in the earliest part of the year (like 17% or so), and that number is now up to 23.7%. We'll see if it stabilizes or continues to trend like this.

[Axel]

Just out of curiousity, if you removed the last 2 games, where he's shot an extremely high # of FTs, what would it look like? He's undeniably been very good the last 2 games, I'm just curious.

I'm very happy about him cutting the 3P this month though, he's just not good at it.

His FG% this month without the last two games is 47.7% - but that cuts the same size down to just 5 games. Not sure the rest of the manual math is worth calculating for a 5 game sample.

[Barolt]

His FG% this month without the last two games is 47.7% - but that cuts the same size down to just 5 games. Not sure the rest of the manual math is worth calculating for a 5 game sample.

Fair enough. I was just looking over his game logs and prior to the last 2 games he hadn't generated more than 10 FTs in quite a while. He has 26 in the last 2. I don't think that level of FTA is sustainable, and my concern with DeMar is always whether he can be effective if we run into a team in the playoffs that can defend him without fouling.

[JWash]

Fair enough. I was just looking over his game logs and prior to the last 2 games he hadn't generated more than 10 FTs in quite a while. He has 26 in the last 2. I don't think that level of FTA is sustainable, and my concern with DeMar is always whether he can be effective if we run into a team in the playoffs that can defend him without fouling.

You can't look at his FTA in two games and say that's unsustainable and then use that as some sort of arbitrary evaluation of his consistency. He's averaging over 8 on the season, he only has 5 games with less than 6 and 8 with more than 12. He's going to continue getting to the line ~8 times per game unless something really strange happens.

And I really don't think it makes a lot of sense for people to use the fact that DD didn't get to the line a lot against Washington and assert that he's going to struggle to get to the FT line in the playoffs. I mean the team was playing historically bad and got absolutely wrecked by the Wizards (in case anyone didn't know already, we're the only team in NBA HISTORY to get swept in a 7-game series with HC Advantage in the 1st round).

The reality is that most of these guys with elite FT draw rates tend to get to the line just as much if not more in the playoffs.

[Axel]

You can't look at his FTA in two games and say that's unsustainable. He's averaging over 8 on the season, he only has 5 games with less than 6 and 8 with more than 12. He's going to continue getting to the line ~8 times per game unless something really strange happens.

And I really don't think it makes a lot of sense for people to use the fact that DD didn't get to the line a lot against Washington and assert that he's going to struggle to get to the FT line in the playoffs. I mean the team was playing historically bad and got absolutely wrecked by the Wizards (in case anyone didn't know already, we're the only team in NBA HISTORY to get swept in a 7-game series with HC Advantage in the 1st round).

The reality is that most of these guys with elite FT draw rates tend to get to the line just as much if not more in the playoffs.

That part is justification alone for people wanting serious change.

[Wild-ling#1]

To be a little bit fair here, his numbers are bound to be up when he's coming off one of his most efficient games of the season. If you'd posted the numbers right after the Golden State game, for instance, they would've looked down.

To be more fair, these are numbers after 24 games - nothing like reflective of one good game ...

[Barolt]

JWash, I'm only going to say this one more time. I'm not saying the Washington series means that DeMar won't get to the FT line in the playoffs, I'm saying it shows that, for the duration of ONE SERIES, he can fail to get to the free throw line and it drastically hurts us. Playoffs are all about small sample sizes.

Relying on FTs can, not necessarily that it will, but it can, hurt you for a single series in the playoffs, and all it takes is one series.

[golden]

This is just completely false. I'm looking at his numbers right now, and they're all at season high's, therefore trending up. (I know for a fact he has not had a WS/48 as high as it is now).

Maybe I should start posting them periodically so people can't randomly claim he's trending down.

As of 12PM on December 14th
PER 20.4
TS% .539
WS/48 .160
WS 3
ORtg 110
DRtg 105

Great idea. If you do, please also post USG%, which is massive when evaluating scorers. Maintaining 110 ORTG at > 25% usage is exceptionally good. With each 1% increase over 20% USG, it becomes exponentially harder to maintain high ORTG / efficiency.

Over the years, I've found that this criteria pretty much always passes the smell test for elite scorers. Just to reinforce the point, here are the players meeting that criteria this season (min. 25MPG). Both DD & Lowry are scoring at an elite efficiency clip, granted DD is just on the cusp of elite. But still, worlds better than last season and equal to the season before.



http://bkref.com/tiny/2fVEL

[Barolt]

Great idea. If you do, please also post USG%, which is massive when evaluating scorers. Maintaining 110 ORTG at > 25% usage is exceptionally good. With each 1% increase over 20% USG, it becomes exponentially harder to maintain high ORTG / efficiency.

Over the years, I've found that this criteria pretty much always passes the smell test for elite scorers. Just to reinforce the point, here are the players meeting that criteria this season (min. 25MPG). Both DD & Lowry are scoring at an elite efficiency clip, granted DD is just on the cusp of elite. But still, worlds better than last season and equal to the season before.



http://bkref.com/tiny/2fVEL

Wow, I had no idea Isaiah Thomas was THAT good this year. That's crazy.

[Bandit]

Great idea. If you do, please also post USG%, which is massive when evaluating scorers. Maintaining 110 ORTG at > 25% usage is exceptionally good. With each 1% increase over 20% USG, it becomes exponentially harder to maintain high ORTG / efficiency.

Over the years, I've found that this criteria pretty much always passes the smell test for elite scorers. Just to reinforce the point, here are the players meeting that criteria this season (min. 25MPG). Both DD & Lowry are scoring at an elite efficiency clip, granted DD is just on the cusp of elite. But still, worlds better than last season and equal to the season before.



http://bkref.com/tiny/2fVEL

Lmao Curry