Everything Valanciunas

[rocwell]

peeps, you need to stop defending JV and blaming Casey. JV's flaws are getting bigger and bigger, only time will tell if he can be the guy on this team.

[Axel]

Over the last month, but he's also played terribly. Hard to say what caused what.

I'd argue that playing poorly has led to a deserved cut in minutes.

But I can't back that up at all. And that's the problem with analyzing this, every single phenomenon CAN be explained as a positive or negative.

The correlation of JV's minutes to production lead me to bbref to check it out. Not an answer, but at least some numbers to look at.

In game where JV plays 30+ mins (20 games) - he has a TS% of 58.4%, a Ortg of 112, a DRtg of 102 and provides 14.4 PPG and 10.3 RPG.

In games where JV players 20-209 mins (31 games) - he has a TS% of 53%, Ortg of 101, DRtg of 105, and provides 9.1 PPG and 8.3 RPG.

In games where JV plays less than 20 mins (8 games) - he has a TS% of 50.3%, Ortg of 89, DRtg of 102 and provides 4.9 PPG and 5.3 RPG.

Now this obviously doesn't answer the correlation question, but it does show that there is definitely a strong correlation between his minutes and efficiency (TS% and Rtgs). His Usage % is roughly the same in the first two lines, 19.3% and 18.3% but drops to 16.5% in the less than 20 min games.

If you look at his monthly breakdown, JV's TS% has remained good, with monthly (from Nov - Feb) scores of 52.2%, 56.6%, 56.1% and 54.5%. In that same span, his minutes has fluctuated from 26.3, 30.9, 27, and 25.3 per game. In the 7 games since the All-star break, his minutes have dropped to 23.7 per game (7 games).

Is this a case of more minutes = better production or better production = more minutes? We'll likely never know, but the downward trend in his minutes does worry me. Has Casey lost confidence in his big? Has JV lost confidence in himself? 23 per game isn't very good and should trend back up a bit, but as the games get bigger and the team battles for the playoffs, will Casey go back to JV or continue to diminish his role?

[Axel]

peeps, you need to stop defending JV and blaming Casey. JV's flaws are getting bigger and bigger, only time will tell if he can be the guy on this team.

haha, bigger and bigger?

I think his flaws haven't changed, only the perception of them. A 21 year old kid making a mistake on a lottery bound team is much less of a talking point as it is for a team battling for home court. He's young and will have growing pains, but he is doing it with heightened scrutiny since the team is actually playing for something (even if it's fools gold).

[stooley]

The correlation of JV's minutes to production lead me to bbref to check it out. Not an answer, but at least some numbers to look at.

In game where JV plays 30+ mins (20 games) - he has a TS% of 58.4%, a Ortg of 112, a DRtg of 102 and provides 14.4 PPG and 10.3 RPG.

In games where JV players 20-209 mins (31 games) - he has a TS% of 53%, Ortg of 101, DRtg of 105, and provides 9.1 PPG and 8.3 RPG.

In games where JV plays less than 20 mins (8 games) - he has a TS% of 50.3%, Ortg of 89, DRtg of 102 and provides 4.9 PPG and 5.3 RPG.

Now this obviously doesn't answer the correlation question, but it does show that there is definitely a strong correlation between his minutes and efficiency (TS% and Rtgs). His Usage % is roughly the same in the first two lines, 19.3% and 18.3% but drops to 16.5% in the less than 20 min games.

If you look at his monthly breakdown, JV's TS% has remained good, with monthly (from Nov - Feb) scores of 52.2%, 56.6%, 56.1% and 54.5%. In that same span, his minutes has fluctuated from 26.3, 30.9, 27, and 25.3 per game. In the 7 games since the All-star break, his minutes have dropped to 23.7 per game (7 games).

Is this a case of more minutes = better production or better production = more minutes? We'll likely never know, but the downward trend in his minutes does worry me. Has Casey lost confidence in his big? Has JV lost confidence in himself? 23 per game isn't very good and should trend back up a bit, but as the games get bigger and the team battles for the playoffs, will Casey go back to JV or continue to diminish his role?

Wow that is a pretty strict correlation. Interesting to see.

I'm just hoping to see JV start playing better. I remember in the first game against Charlotte, after the Gay trade, I saw JV really giving everything he had.

He was getting way down on D against Al Jefferson in the post, he was making all the hustle plays, and generally just playing his heart out while keeping his game under control.

That was the start of a really nice stretch for him.

I'd like to see those small things again, lately he's looked a little lost on the floor.

[Nilanka]

For all of us who are praying for the Wizards in the 1st round, the Jonas/Gortat matchup could easily be the deciding factor in a series.

Jonas has a lot of learning to do over the next 2 months for us to have a real shot at the 2nd round.

[rocwell]

Since coming off west coast swing, Jonas Valanciunas has played just 20 4th quarter minutes in 9 games.

— Chris Black (@ByChrisBlack) March 3, 2014

Every other player in the #Raps regular rotation has played more 4th quarter minutes than Valanciunas.

— Chris Black (@ByChrisBlack) March 3, 2014

And yet despite playing just 20 4th quarter minutes in the last 9 games, Jonas' -10 +/- is the team's worst in that time.

— Chris Black (@ByChrisBlack) March 3, 2014

[Puffer]

For all of us who are praying for the Wizards in the 1st round, the Jonas/Gortat matchup could easily be the deciding factor in a series.

Jonas has a lot of learning to do over the next 2 months for us to have a real shot at the 2nd round.

If it is to be the Wizz, JV will be spending a lot of time watching tape, and the Raps will be game planning for that match-up...less possible to do during the season when you are always worried about the next 2-3 games coming along. JV is a gamer and has shown a strong willingness to learn. I am less worried about Gortat in a seven game series.

[OldSkoolCool]

I agree with the premise of sitting a guy for mistakes, it's absolutely the right thing to do, but that Wiz game was an extreme. Can't sit him that long. Also worth noting, that he led the team in rebounds with 10 and we were getting killed on the boards all game long. Perhaps sitting your best rebounder isn't the best choice.

This. Accountability, something Casey is terrible at.

And yes, we are often killed on the boards with the Amir-Pattman lineup and Casey often solves it by deciding to add offense by playing Novak at the 4. I know this is to force them to give a different match up...but it doesn't work.

peeps, you need to stop defending JV and blaming Casey. JV's flaws are getting bigger and bigger, only time will tell if he can be the guy on this team.

Wow that is a pretty strict correlation. Interesting to see.

I'm just hoping to see JV start playing better. I remember in the first game against Charlotte, after the Gay trade, I saw JV really giving everything he had.

He was getting way down on D against Al Jefferson in the post, he was making all the hustle plays, and generally just playing his heart out while keeping his game under control.

That was the start of a really nice stretch for him.

I'd like to see those small things again, lately he's looked a little lost on the floor.

I think the correlation is games where he gets involved and therefor gets engaged on both ends of the floor and plays hard....and games where he gets looked off a ton and gets frustrated and checks out.

Our guard play really needs to improve at getting our bigs touches AT THE RIM. The payoffs of doing so will only create better opportunities for everyone, not just the bigs

For all of us who are praying for the Wizards in the 1st round, the Jonas/Gortat matchup could easily be the deciding factor in a series.

Jonas has a lot of learning to do over the next 2 months for us to have a real shot at the 2nd round.

I think Jonas can go toe to toe with Gortat...if we actually use him on the Roll and get Gortat into foul trouble because he isn't a great rim protector

[Axel]

I think Jonas can go toe to toe with Gortat...if we actually use him on the Roll and get Gortat into foul trouble because he isn't a great rim protector

If we play the Wiz, I'd have JV play low on the roll (ala the Spurs, Pacers, Blazers model) and have the guard go under, force John Wall to beat us 4 times using long twos and not off the dribble. If it's Beal, go over and force him to beat you with his handles.

I think forcing JV to defend like Amir is a recipe for disaster. JV doesn't have the quickness like Amir.

[stooley]

I think the correlation is games where he gets involved and therefor gets engaged on both ends of the floor and plays hard....and games where he gets looked off a ton and gets frustrated and checks out.

Maybe, maybe not. I've definitely seen him play poorly at the start of games before being benched too though.

[OldSkoolCool]

If we play the Wiz, I'd have JV play low on the roll (ala the Spurs, Pacers, Blazers model) and have the guard go under, force John Wall to beat us 4 times using long twos and not off the dribble. If it's Beal, go over and force him to beat you with his handles.

I think forcing JV to defend like Amir is a recipe for disaster. JV doesn't have the quickness like Amir.

Ahh I mean offensively since we never hit the roller and our bigs are just Pick-Robots. I mean to attack Gortat on the offensive end off the PnR

Defensively ya he should sag as he has been doing all season.

[rocwell]

LOL Jonas! http://instagram.com/p/lFOE04rMIl/

He's adapting to new culture way too quickly

[MACK11]

LOL Jonas! http://instagram.com/p/lFOE04rMIl/

He's adapting to new culture way too quickly

hahahah

[Chr1s1anL]

You earn your minutes plain and simple. Ross and JV are in the same situation. Ross takes advantage of his minutes JV doesn't. If his not playing than that means he should be in the gym every night.


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[Rapstor4Life]

lets trade JV for Drummond.