Everything Valanciunas

[big boi]

Who is saying the glass is cracked and poisoned?

When did balanced discussion die on this forum? I like JV. I think he's progressed very well in a lot of facets of his game, however his playmaking abilities are still somewhere near non-existent. Partially because he's played in a system that hasn't done him any favours with his development, and partially because he lacks a lot of the inherent skills and awareness. He can lack these skills (for now) and still be a good young player that we're excited to have signed up for the foreseeable future. The two aren't mutually exclusive.

And to take it further, no one is defending Coach Casey, or saying the team played an enjoyable style of basketball during the back of half last season that was packed full of ball movement and equal touches for people. But once again, that doesn't automatically absolve JV from any blame and make him a 'pretty damn good' playmaker or whatever other silly arbitrary comment you want to lob out there.

That's what makes it difficult to take most of you seriously; the way you just decide based on the player/subject at hand what stats you're going to completely dismiss, and which ones you will cling on to for dear life. Which times you "LOL!!" at posters who mention the eye test, and which times your own eye test overrules any data that is presented. Etc. Etc.

I believe part of the problem is that JV did not have enough practice in those situations. Passing out of the double is one of the more nuanced part of the post game. You're right he has not demonstrated he can do it, but I believe we should live or die by his mistakes in the regular season so as to give him that experience and provide teachable moments. Last year he was an after thought on offence. And sometimes selfishness begets selfishness on offence.

[Axel]

You'll have to show me where I used the term 'historically bad' because as far as I can see the only person who has used it in this conversation is you. I've also repeated myself 3-4 times now about how the Raptors style of play is not conducive to great passing/playmaking and that JV is still developing, etc. so I'm not sure about your point about a lack of context or how I've been unwilling to concede any mitigating factors either. I think a lot of folks just start to see red whenever something gets said about JV that isn't a ringing endorsement and a lot of the nuance of certain posts gets lost.

As to your second point, If you don't think that being an effective passer/playmaker for a big man is necessary, especially if you advocate for JV to get a lot more touches and a larger role in the offence, then we'll have to agree to disagree. I think it's only natural that if he assumes a bigger role, more defensive attention, double teams, game planning to stop him will quickly come his way and it will become imperative for him to be able to make plays for his teammates. Regardless, I've become lost on what the reason behind JV's poor playmaking numbers are… I've read that he shouldn't be passing to his teammates anyway, I've read that it's impossible for him to be a good playmaker in this system, and now I've read that it's not even necessary for him to do it.

With regards to the stats, I mined those numbers near the end of the season and when I posted it I didn't realize that I was missing a few contests on the back end. For the sake of fairness, here are the same stats from his full 2014-15 campaign:

272 players played over 1000 minutes or more this past year in the league..

In terms of assists per game, JV tied for 267th out of 272.

In total assists, JV tied for 271st out of 272. (He played 2096 minutes by the way, over double the qualifying mark. The player who finished below him on this list was Whiteside, who played ~900 minutes less than him)

In assist percentage, JV tied for 267th out of 272.

Source: Basketball Reference.

202 players played over 25 minutes per game last year…

JV was tied for last in passes that directly led to free throws for a teammate, and as far as I can tell did not have one of these instances the entire year (his FT assists per game reads 0.0 over 80 games)

JV is tied for dead last in secondary assists per game, aka the hockey assist. (0.2 / game)

JV is 202/202, or dead last, in assist opportunities per game, meaning how many times he delivered a pass to a teammate that would have been an assist if the teammate made the shot. So if JV kicks it out to someone and they heave a long jumper, JV would get credit for that under this stat. He averages less than one of these instances per game.

JV is 201/202 in points created by assist per game.

Source: http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/pla...gular%20Season

So yes, still one of the least effective passers and playmakers in the game last season by virtually every metric. By definition.

My overall point remains the same… the team needs to shift to a style of play that helps everyone become better playmakers (not just Jonas) and JV individually has tremendous room for improvement as well. These two statements can be true at the same time, and that's what I've been trying to say all along.

When you made this exact same point a few months back, you used the term "historically bad". And you subsequently admitted the other factors after the blowback (hence my comment regarding the initial blowback). And yes, accuracy of the stats is important for credibility. Nearly 200 minutes played isn't really something that should be overlooked when they do change the ranking. I see a big difference between ranked 55 of 60 and 49 of 60 (rough estimates of starting C and backups).

How many great centers weren't great passers though? I'd argue plenty; thus not a requirement to be successful at the position.

Yes, a larger role in the offence will need him to pass more, and if he gets those opportunities this season and his numbers don't increase to reflect that, then it is a fair criticism. At this point seems more like nitpicking. When he needs to pass out of double teams or when he is missing cutters down the lane, then we have a problem.

[JimiCliff]

I don't know dude, when you frame an argument like this:

JV was tied for last in passes that directly led to free throws for a teammate, and as far as I can tell did not have one of these instances the entire year (his FT assists per game reads 0.0 over 80 games)

...and conspicuously neglect to mention that multiple other comparable players (Tobias Harris, Enes Kanter, Omer Asik, Steven Adams, Andre Drummond, Tristan Thompson, Tyson Chandler) also averaged 0.0, it sure makes it seem like you're trying to paint JV in a bad light.

Edit: and to continue with this specific stat, here's a list of players who averaged 0.1 FT assists/per game, which would work out the 1 FT per 10 games, and is tantamount to nothing:

Andrew Wiggins, Wes Matthews, Taj Gibson, Harrison Barnes, Dwight Howard, Brook Lopez, Lamarcus Aldridge, Rudy Gobert, Serge Ibaka, Deandre Jordan, Demarre Carrol, Terrence Ross, Patrick Patterson, Anthony Davis (amongst others.)

[mcHAPPY]

Who ever said he was perfect?

But when people are literally fabricating/falsely representing data to criticize him, it doesn't really make it much of a debate or discussion.

When critics provide a cogent argument, then maybe others will be more willing to accept it.

I think there is a very good case that JV has to work on his passing. No question.

The issue here is context.

No one thinks JV is a great passer. However what many people who are posting a different view are attempting to offer balanced discussion - which apparently is dead but I'm not seeing it because this is a perfect example....what is dead is the ability to look at circumstances in a different manner than the way one chooses to present them.... but I digress.

It really is tough to crap on JV for his passing, or lack thereof, when he has 17 front court touches a game and is given 4.5 post ups per game in year 3. How is one to work on facets of their game without IN GAME experience? This has been the crutch of the entire JV debate over the last 3 years. People, like myself, have been saying you play him NOW (1, 2 seasons ago, and last season) so he gets experience and develops - or at the very least you have a good idea what he is. Others took the approach of the Casey sound bites, "We have to win games and JV should be on the bench."


It is no surprise the types of responses in this passing discussion though. It is funny that the people who often criticize DD are usually pretty high on JV. Those who are lining up to tear JV down are usually vocal supporters of DD. I think that comes down to a perspective on basketball and what one views as important to winning games.


I think an equal calibre discussion would be to head over to DD thread and question his blocks per game.

[white men can't jump]

How are his passing stats being falsely represented?

I said stats, not specifically passing stats...

Because when you're making arguments about his passing, and making comparisons, it helps if things like the minutes, or how you actually properly place him in rankings against peers are actually are done right. If they're not, how strong is your argument? Are you deliberately using bad numbers because you want to criticize? Are you just not bothering to double check that you're doing things right? Either is pretty bad and makes it hard to want to take a critical argument seriously.

[white men can't jump]

I think there is a very good case that JV has to work on his passing. No question.

The issue here is context.

No one thinks JV is a great passer. However what many people who are posting a different view are attempting to offer balanced discussion - which apparently is dead but I'm not seeing it because this is a perfect example....what is dead is the ability to look at circumstances in a different manner than the way one chooses to present them.... but I digress.

It really is tough to crap on JV for his passing, or lack thereof, when he has 17 front court touches a game and is given 4.5 post ups per game in year 3. How is one to work on facets of their game without IN GAME experience? This has been the crutch of the entire JV debate over the last 3 years. People, like myself, have been saying you play him NOW (1, 2 seasons ago, and last season) so he gets experience and develops - or at the very least you have a good idea what he is. Others took the approach of the Casey sound bites, "We have to win games and JV should be on the bench."


It is no surprise the types of responses in this passing discussion though. It is funny that the people who often criticize DD are usually pretty high on JV. Those who are lining up to tear JV down are usually vocal supporters of DD. I think that comes down to a perspective on basketball and what one views as important to winning games.


I think an equal calibre discussion would be to head over to DD thread and question his blocks per game.

Oh I completely agree it's fair to criticize, but that criticism has to make some damn sense. Context definitely matters. If you're going to use numbers, use them properly. And if you're using some numbers that are pretty random, argue why they matter as a measure and aren't just an excuse to fish for negatives.

I mean, you've got people using Chuck Hayes' better assist% as an argument for why it's not the system's fault if Hayes is passing more. Forget the fact that Hayes' is so terrible at scoring he has to pass instead of taking open layups because he can't even hit those most of the time. *Oh, and forget the fact that the other team knows they don't need to worry about Hayes, so that's why he's always open to start with.

[Chr1s1anL]

Oh I completely agree it's fair to criticize, but that criticism has to make some damn sense. Context definitely matters. If you're going to use numbers, use them properly. And if you're using some numbers that are pretty random, argue why they matter as a measure and aren't just an excuse to fish for negatives.

I mean, you've got people using Chuck Hayes' better assist% as an argument for why it's not the system's fault if Hayes is passing more. Forget the fact that Hayes' is so terrible at scoring he has to pass instead of taking open layups because he can't even hit those most of the time. *Oh, and forget the fact that the other team knows they don't need to worry about Hayes, so that's why he's always open to start with.

Ok, do you think JV is a good passer?

[KHD]

It is no surprise the types of responses in this passing discussion though. It is funny that the people who often criticize DD are usually pretty high on JV. Those who are lining up to tear JV down are usually vocal supporters of DD. I think that comes down to a perspective on basketball and what one views as important to winning games.

no, it comes down to the difference between someone who understands basketball and someone who doesnt.

[big boi]

no, it comes down to the difference between someone who understands basketball and someone who doesnt.

+1

[DanH]

no, it comes down to the difference between someone who understands basketball and someone who doesnt.

See, I'd expect this post to set a record for "likes" since both sides will assume you are talking about them understanding basketball.

[JimiCliff]

For some context, here's where the Raptors ranked, as a team, in terms of passing stats:

Raw assists: 21st
AST%: 28th
2FGM%A (% of made 2 point FGs that were assisted): 27th
3FGM%A (% of made 3 point FGs that were assisted): 28th

So, obviously, one has to acknowledge that Jonas assists numbers are hurt somewhat by this system.

In terms of Raptors 5-man lineups, with a minimum of 50 minutes played (which gives us the top 16 used lineups)...

...if we focus on AST%...

Out of the 8 worst lineups (670 minutes), 4 featured Jonas.

Out of the 8 best lineups (1174 minutes) 6 featured Jonas.

The two most used lineups, by far, were:

KL/DD/TR/AJ/JV, with an AST% of 54.3

GV/LW/JJ/PP/TH, with an AST% of 54.6

No one here is making the case that Jonas is Jason Kidd. But it's hard to look at these stats and suggest that the team's passing suffers at all when he's on the floor.

[raptors999]

For some context, here's where the Raptors ranked, as a team, in terms of passing stats:

Raw assists: 21st
AST%: 28th
2FGM%A (% of made 2 point FGs that were assisted): 27th
3FGM%A (% of made 3 point FGs that were assisted): 28th

So, obviously, one has to acknowledge that Jonas assists numbers are hurt somewhat by this system.

In terms of Raptors 5-man lineups, with a minimum of 50 minutes played (which gives us the top 16 used lineups)...

...if we focus on AST%...

Out of the 8 worst lineups (670 minutes), 4 featured Jonas.

Out of the 8 best lineups (1174 minutes) 6 featured Jonas.

The two most used lineups, by far, were:

KL/DD/TR/AJ/JV, with an AST% of 54.3

GV/LW/JJ/PP/TH, with an AST% of 54.6

No one here is making the case that Jonas is Jason Kidd. But it's hard to look at these stats and suggest that the team's passing suffers at all when he's on the floor.

He shot close to 58% from the floor. Until teams can shut him down there really isn't a reason to pass. If he dips under 50% and still can't pass then there is a problem.

[KHD]

See, I'd expect this post to set a record for "likes" since both sides will assume you are talking about them understanding basketball.

shhh....

[big boi]

See, I'd expect this post to set a record for "likes" since both sides will assume you are talking about them understanding basketball.

The other side would have to be truly insane (which I've always suspected) to believe that

[charlesnba23]

JV will average 15 10 and 2. Strop arguing!