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  • Nilanka wrote: View Post
    Kanter is a much poorer defensive player (compared to Jonas), no?
    Idk about that to be honest.

    Last year Jonas allowed 1.10 PPP against the roll man in pick and roll situations (19th percentile), Kanter allowed 0.72 (81st percentile).

    In post up defense JV was excellent with 0.61 PPP against (92nd percentile), Kanter wasn't quite as good allowing 0.83 (61st percentile).

    Kanter allowed opponents to shoot 53.2% at the rim while JV allowed 52.2%.

    JV had a 106.1 dRTG, Kanter's was 106.5.

    I can't pull up ESPN's DRPM stats for some reason, but I'm not a huge fan of those anyway since they seem to fluctuate wildly year over year, but in DBPM JV outperformed Enes by a wide margin at +2.7 to -3.1.

    From looking at the totality of that plus watching them play I really don't think Valanciunas is leaps and bounds better than Kanter defensively, especially not in pick and roll situations.

    Comment


    • It's looking like JV is a real candidate to get traded. Casey doesn't seem to like his mobility or lack thereof on the defensive end, justified or not, and he and Masai have a very good working relationship and JV's on an extremely friendly contract. I don't think he's even close to untouchable right now and could very easily be floated to bring in a player at another position or a different kind of player at the same position.

      Comment


      • Nilanka wrote: View Post
        I'm just playing devil's advocate here, but couldn't a Henson ($12 million), Gortat ($12 million), Vucevic ($12 million), Bogut ($11 million), Varejao ($11 million), Jefferson ($10 million), Asik ($10 million), Koufas ($8 million), etc. do the same simple things that Jonas is asked to do?

        I'm not saying I'd want any of these guys ahead of Jonas, but it seems like we paid him based on future potential. This belief that one day, Jonas will be a legit offensive weapon that defenses need to scheme for. I just don't see that happening under Casey, while both Lowry and DeRozan are around.

        Now if Lowry throws us a curve ball, and signs elsewhere this summer, then all of this changes.
        Most of these guys aren't even the right replacements, imo.

        I think ideally Casey wants a quick shot-blocking C like Biyombo/Nogueira. Guys like Gortat/Bogut/Jefferson/Asik are all slow traditional bigs.

        Toss Bebe out there for a chunk of the game and have Poeltl back him up.

        Wait a second... Maybe Masai's plan is coming into focus. The third centre was insurance for trading Jonas. And maybe we're keeping his minutes low to make sure he doesn't get injured and ruin his trade value.

        Where's my tinfoil hat. Oh yeah it's on my head. All hail general zod.

        Comment


        • 3inthekeon wrote: View Post
          I believe so, most everyone believes so, yet Kanter has twice JV's defensive WS this year despite playing fewer minutes. Sorry, I trust that stat even less than RPM or BPM.
          WS is purely a production stat - it's terrible at judging impact. Defensive production is tied up in stuff like blocks and defensive boards.

          No stat is a perfect catch all, but in terms of cash value, players tend to be paid mostly based on their production, so I find WS a good value parallel.
          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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          • Lupe wrote: View Post
            Idk about that to be honest.

            Last year Jonas allowed 1.10 PPP against the roll man in pick and roll situations (19th percentile), Kanter allowed 0.72 (81st percentile).

            In post up defense JV was excellent with 0.61 PPP against (92nd percentile), Kanter wasn't quite as good allowing 0.83 (61st percentile).

            Kanter allowed opponents to shoot 53.2% at the rim while JV allowed 52.2%.

            JV had a 106.1 dRTG, Kanter's was 106.5.

            I can't pull up ESPN's DRPM stats for some reason, but I'm not a huge fan of those anyway since they seem to fluctuate wildly year over year, but in DBPM JV outperformed Enes by a wide margin at +2.7 to -3.1.

            From looking at the totality of that plus watching them play I really don't think Valanciunas is leaps and bounds better than Kanter defensively, especially not in pick and roll situations.
            Pick and roll defence percentiles are almost entirely team-system driven, not individual driven. Biyombo ranked in the 24th percentile. Scola in the 16th. Terrible way to evaluate a player's defence. Those synergy metrics are not bad for simple one on one defensive plays (post ups, isolations) but for things like catch and shoot, pick and roll, etc, players should only be compared within the same team as there is way too much system noise on those things. Also good for evaluating at the team level, just fails to properly capture individual contributions.

            Catch-all impact stats are probably the best defensive stats we have (as unreliable as they are they are far better than on-off splits or production-based stats like BLK% or DWS) and they all point to Kanter being one of the worst defenders in the league, and JV being somewhere between somewhat below average and somewhat above average.
            twitter.com/dhackett1565

            Comment


            • lewro wrote: View Post
              You fire the coach or trade the player. I don't bother yelling jv is wide open at the TV anymore. It's been years.
              Debatable whether jvs situation improves if Lowry leaves. Lowry is not ideal with jv but he does try and can play with him a bit.
              Likely another pg will be chosen to facilitate demar which probably reduces jvs touches even more.
              Ffs we are playing bebe and siakam ahead of jv at this point. These guys are just happy to be in the league. They're playing 30mins and closing for a #2 seed vs the former champs. That's a pretty good window into the mind of Casey.
              MU just signed both Casey and DD to extension so I don't think he is planning to trade DD or fire the Coach.

              Plus, maybe, just maybe, they look at JV as a rebounding and defensive guy and don't think his ceiling as HIGH as some fans here think !!!

              Why trade JV ? He is on a great Contract.

              Comment


              • McRealistic wrote: View Post
                MU just signed both Casey and DD to extension so I don't think he is planning to trade DD or fire the Coach.

                Plus, maybe, just maybe, they look at JV as a rebounding and defensive guy and don't think his ceiling as HIGH as some fans here think !!!

                Why trade JV ? He is on a great Contract.
                Here's a quote from this summer
                "Yes he is," general manager Masai Ujiri said when asked if Valanciunas was prepared for an increased role. "Even from talking to [head coach Dwane Casey] we feel that way, Jonas feels that way, players feel that way."
                Here's a quote from offseason before 2014-15 LOL
                “We have to start games off (feeding Valanciunas in the post), we need him, we’re going to put some pressure on him to score the ball for us,” Kyle Lowry said.

                “We can’t just do all guard-oriented types of things. We have to make sure he’s more involved and have to put a little pressure on him to score the ball.”

                Backup centre Chuck Hayes echoed those thoughts.

                “We’re going to have to feed the big fella. He gets high-percentage shots, as you can see from the championships and the season last year. So when there’s a drought we’re going to call his number,” Hayes said.
                Here's a quote from last years playoffs
                Most of Valanciunas' touches came from his six offensive boards, bailing Toronto out a number of times in the fourth. He made all but two of his shots, but the problem was a familiar one: he only got nine opportunities to shoot the ball.
                "We would [have liked to get him more touches]," Dwane Casey said after the game. "I think once we do go into him he’s done a decent job, but Whiteside is a force down there and they’re doing a good job digging, pushing him off his sweet spot. We can find more touches for him down there but I think he’s doing a heckuva job, screening, rolling, in-between game is probably what it’s going to be."
                "That’s what we gotta do, man," Carroll agreed. "We gotta try to get him the ball more ‘cause every time he gets it, he’s scoring. So we gotta figure out ways we can get him the ball and ways we can move."
                It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

                Comment


                • ^^^ if getting BigVal involved in the offence was the goal for MU and the Coach, then either they are failing or BigVal is failing ...

                  Comment


                  • McRealistic wrote: View Post
                    ^^^ if getting BigVal involved in the offence was the goal for MU and the Coach, then either they are failing or BigVal is failing ...
                    Well he's shooting 57%, 21.1 PER and 17.5 points per 36 min. We have evidence above that Lowry has been saying he's ready since Chuck Hayes was here also saying he's ready, so I would say its based on all of this that yes the team is failing to get him involved.
                    It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

                    Comment


                    • McRealistic wrote: View Post
                      ^^^ if getting BigVal involved in the offence was the goal for MU and the Coach, then either they are failing or BigVal is failing ...
                      Disagree. When he plays poorly, he gets dumped on. When he shows out and plays well, he gets undercut by the coach. Either way, JV can't win. They've been parroting how much they want to get him involved for years, but its all talk. We know they're full of it.

                      Comment


                      • I really think we have to trade JV in order to progress.

                        It's not that he's not good etc but we just don't and won't use him CONSISTENTLY so it's just a big waste of time and money. When we focus on using him there is no comparison between him and Bebe or Poeltl etc but for the most part we don't use him a lot and he is reduced to being a garbageman picking up rebounds or rim running on PnRs which for those 2 things, there isn't a substantial difference by having another C do, Bebe and Poeltl seem to do fine.

                        I think that's why there is interest in Noel because realistically we're not making our C a focal point on the offence we just want one that sets good screens and rolls hard to the basket, something Noel can do in spades with his freakish athleticism. On the otherside of the court he's leaps and bounds above anyone we have and has exactly the kind of speed to defend and athleticism to defend both the perimeter and the post which is a Casey wet dream.

                        Then JV becomes a trade chip for the actual PF we desire and that would be one that can nail a jumper from the mid range and out to the 3 pt line and also he has the ability to pass. Masai was hoping to trim down Sully into that type of player but given his injury that will not happen, not this year at least. Problem is there aren't many PFs that fit this description other than an old Milsap who certainly isn't worth JV in a trade and ATL would have no desire to either with Howard.

                        I don't think JV gets traded this year but I could see Masai waiting until Delon returns, Norm gets more comfortable and Noel gets closer to returning, trading CoJo for Noel once the team's health can handle the back up PG position. Then when the off season comes JV + picks could offer a world of different opportunities...

                        Comment


                        • KeonClark wrote: View Post
                          Well he's shooting 57%, 21.1 PER and 17.5 points per 36 min. We have evidence above that Lowry has been saying he's ready since Chuck Hayes was here also saying he's ready, so I would say its based on all of this that yes the team is failing to get him involved.
                          Well that is too bad for Val then. MU gave extension to Casey showing his trust on him. He gave DD the max and again, gave him the Go to sign to be the star of the team.

                          So too bad for Val

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                          • JamesNaismith wrote: View Post
                            I really think we have to trade JV in order to progress.
                            Val is on a great Contract. He is going to be making less than Steven Adams ... So why trade him ? You ONLY trade him if you can get a star in return and with the way things are, I don't think Val can get you a star back.

                            Comment


                            • McRealistic wrote: View Post
                              Well that is too bad for Val then. MU gave extension to Casey showing his trust on him. He gave DD the max and again, gave him the Go to sign to be the star of the team.

                              So too bad for Val
                              Although by that argument Masai also gave a big extension to JV.
                              twitter.com/dhackett1565

                              Comment


                              • DanH wrote: View Post
                                Although by that argument Masai also gave a big extension to JV.
                                Yes, and MU wants JV to be in this team. It is just MU, DD, KL and Casey do not look at Big Val as BIG as STAR that fans here look at.

                                He is the 3rd or 4th best option on the offence in this team and is not one of the leaders. At his price tag and what he brings to the table, I would , just like MU, keep him as long as I can.

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