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  • You only get Noel after you've acquired the stud offensive PF (like LMA) to pair him with. Noel on his own makes no sense.

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    • golden wrote: View Post
      You only get Noel after you've acquired the stud offensive PF (like LMA) to pair him with. Noel on his own makes no sense.
      Yeah, Noel can make sense as an upgrade from BeBe, IF we get an established star at PF for JV (which I doubt happens), maybe. Not as a "better fit" than JV.
      twitter.com/dhackett1565

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      • He is a better fit than JV on the defensive end of the floor though, particularly with how we guard the pick and roll. And we don't go to JV enough offensively, particularly in the post for him to heavily outweigh Noel on that end.

        I wouldn't make the trade either without first or simultaneously moving JV for a star PF, but tbh one of the main points of doing the whole thing would be the fact that Noel isn't someone who's going to get taken off because Casey doesn't think he has enough foot speed for the matchup, he's basically going to be able to cover everything from big 3s to centers.

        I think the Raptors get a lot better if you can even get equivalent return for JV at PF and swap him out for Noel at center. We've consistently been elite offensively the past 4 seasons ranking 10th in 2013-14 (which could've been higher if not for the 6-12 start with Gay), 4th in 2014-15, 5th in 2015-16 and now 2nd to Golden State this year. It's our defense that's actually been holding us back, where we haven't been ranked in the top 10 since 2013-14 and are really struggling now at 23rd (although part of that might just be playing the two best teams in the league 3 times already).

        If you get a comparable offensive contributor to JV at the 4 (not what JV's potential is, but what he's doing right now) and upgrade defensively at the 5 with Nerlens I think that takes us several steps forwards.
        Last edited by Lupe; Fri Nov 18, 2016, 10:21 AM.

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        • Lupe wrote: View Post
          He is a better fit than JV on the defensive end of the floor though, particularly with how we guard the pick and roll. And we don't go to JV enough offensively, particularly in the post for him to heavily outweigh Noel on that end.

          I wouldn't make the trade either without first or simultaneously moving JV for a star PF, but tbh one of the main points of doing the whole thing would be the fact that Noel isn't someone who's going to get taken off because Casey doesn't think he has enough foot speed for the matchup, he's basically going to be able to cover everything from big 3s to centers.

          I think the Raptors get a lot better if you can even get equivalent return for JV at PF and swap him out for Noel at center. We've consistently been elite offensively the past 4 seasons ranking 10th in 2013-14 (which could've been higher if not for the 6-12 start with Gay), 4th in 2014-15, 5th in 2015-16 and now 2nd to Golden State this year. It's our defense that's actually been holding us back, where we haven't been ranked in the top 10 since 2013-14 and are really struggling now at 23rd (although part of that might just be playing the two best teams in the league 3 times already).

          If you get a comparable offensive contributor to JV at the 4 (not what JV's potential is, but what he's doing right now) and upgrade defensively at the 5 with Nerlens I think that takes us several steps forwards.
          Here's my problem - name me an equivalent offensive contributor to JV at PF. JV is currently posting >17 points per 36 on 63% TS% with a 19.3% TRB%. Noel is a significantly worse rebounder (at ~15%), so we need the PF we get to be very good there.

          So, let's see, PF's who averaged 60%+ TS%, 15+ PTS/36 and 15%+ TRB% last season...

          Let's see. Last year, one player in the league classified as a F, F-C or C-F managed to eclipse those marks. It was Kevon Looney, playing a total of 21 minutes. So that won't work.

          Let's scale back the TS% and pretend that efficiency from the bigs is not important to this offence (it's critical).

          Assuming only a 55% limit, the results jump to 12 results league wide:

          LMA. Millsap. Kevin Love. KAT. Monroe. Gortat. AD. Faried. David Lee. Jon Leuer. Lauvergne. And the inimitable Looney.

          So, unless you think we are trading JV for one of LMA, Millsap, Love, AD or KAT (the star PF I was suggesting we would need to get back), that means the substitute PF version of JV is limited to one of these groups:

          Actually a C, so nevermind: Gortat, Monroe.
          You really want these guys?: Faried, Lee, Leuer, Lauvergne, Looney.

          So, the proposal is then that the Raptors should trade JV for a guy like Faried, Lee, Leuer, Lauvergne or Looney, trade pieces for Noel, and go from there?

          This is the reality - you want a real comparable offensive contributor to JV? They don't really exist, very few players are as efficient AND productive as him, but if you want something similar, you're trading for a star, which is pretty much what I've been saying - a star in a return for JV or you don't trade him.
          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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          • Dan, you're only looking at offensive production and I think part of what Lupe is saying is that we need defense. The pf doesn't have to put up the same offense as jv, that would be great but he should help the defense first and hopefully stretch the floor, which jv doesn't do.
            I agree when you say that noel could backup jv. That's what I see. More weapons for us vs the cavs and we need everyone we can get. Let both guys play and then judge fit. I think we can maybe get noel for delon. If he doesn't work then resign him and maybe trade him for a replacement at a position of more need than 3rd pg. Like say if pat walks maybe we can get Dwight Powell and a pick.
            Or something. If noel fits better then we have plenty of time to wait for the right pf deal and trade jv. We'd have a solid centre rotation and yak would have time to gain weight and be a better version (for our system) of jv. We're probably spending around 30m for both, which is roughly the same as lowry will get, cory another 7 or dd+Ross. The tax is just the ante to contend.

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            • DanH wrote: View Post
              Yeah, Noel can make sense as an upgrade from BeBe, IF we get an established star at PF for JV (which I doubt happens), maybe. Not as a "better fit" than JV.
              You can't judge fit until he plays. It's possible you are wrong. We get a rental window

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              • lewro wrote: View Post
                Dan, you're only looking at offensive production and I think part of what Lupe is saying is that we need defense. The pf doesn't have to put up the same offense as jv, that would be great but he should help the defense first and hopefully stretch the floor, which jv doesn't do.
                I agree when you say that noel could backup jv. That's what I see. More weapons for us vs the cavs and we need everyone we can get. Let both guys play and then judge fit. I think we can maybe get noel for delon. If he doesn't work then resign him and maybe trade him for a replacement at a position of more need than 3rd pg. Like say if pat walks maybe we can get Dwight Powell and a pick.
                Or something. If noel fits better then we have plenty of time to wait for the right pf deal and trade jv. We'd have a solid centre rotation and yak would have time to gain weight and be a better version (for our system) of jv. We're probably spending around 30m for both, which is roughly the same as lowry will get, cory another 7 or dd+Ross. The tax is just the ante to contend.
                Lupe literally said:

                If you get a comparable offensive contributor to JV at the 4
                twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                • lewro wrote: View Post
                  You can't judge fit until he plays. It's possible you are wrong. We get a rental window
                  OK? There's a cost for that rental window. Heck, we don't know for sure that if we traded for Jose Calderon and played him at C that it wouldn't work out great, but we won't do that, because it's not a no-cost scenario.

                  To get Noel to try this, you lose assets. And we just had Biyombo, an extremely similar player to Noel, on the team last year and all evidence suggests the team is better with JV than with Biyombo. It's about as solid a reason not to go after Noel as you can have (along with having two young, decent C prospects already on the roster).

                  So, yes, it's possible I am wrong. How many assets are we willing to shed to take the long shot (based on evidence plus a healthy dose of misplaced self-confidence on my part) that that's the case?
                  twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                  • KHD wrote: View Post
                    noel is a worse version of biyombo, and biyombo, for all his praise, wouldn't be as effective if he was forced to start every game. teams can and will exploit the fact that you're playing 4 on 5 on O.

                    You said: "our guards benefit from a big that can pass out of the high post", based on what? how often do we give our bigs the ball in the high post? I dont watch a lot of noel but i haven't seen evidence that he's any better at passing from there than JV is.

                    Lob passes, or really passes to bigs in general, are absolutely not a strength of our guards, btw.

                    I have an opposing viewpoint to you, I like defensive players but not defense-only players. Noel is so extraordinarly limited offensively that teams will sag off him from anywhere outside 8 feet, and our guards will not penetrate. With our poor shooting from 3, it'd be a terrible offensive situation.
                    I think noel is better all around than biz. And I think biz was very good for us. I think he was our best defender vs lebron. I think lebron is our biggest obstacle.
                    I think we have a number of good slashing wings. Bebe made a great pass from the high post back door to Carroll vs hornets I believe. I think we saw a lot of increased ball movement with bebe recently. Yak improved our passing too imo. Yes, noel is good at passing.
                    I meant strength in the sense that our guards are better at hitting the lob man than the roll man. I think Kyle has hit jv twice on the roll this yr? Bebe was 5/5 lobs in one game.
                    Noel averages similar numbers to bebe's recent career best numbers. Seems like that style fits our team and is what Casey wants to play. If the price is cheap we can test it for a year. I think we have to take a shot to improve bc we are not good enough. Unless we are moving on from Lowry. That sets the window back a bit.

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                    • DanH wrote: View Post
                      This is the reality - you want a real comparable offensive contributor to JV? They don't really exist, very few players are as efficient AND productive as him, but if you want something similar, you're trading for a star, which is pretty much what I've been saying - a star in a return for JV or you don't trade him.
                      Pretty much no one can touch his production and efficiency when you factor in his very small usage. No player gives you more with less on the front court than JV right now.
                      Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                      If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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                      • DanH wrote: View Post
                        OK? There's a cost for that rental window. Heck, we don't know for sure that if we traded for Jose Calderon and played him at C that it wouldn't work out great, but we won't do that, because it's not a no-cost scenario.

                        To get Noel to try this, you lose assets. And we just had Biyombo, an extremely similar player to Noel, on the team last year and all evidence suggests the team is better with JV than with Biyombo. It's about as solid a reason not to go after Noel as you can have (along with having two young, decent C prospects already on the roster).

                        So, yes, it's possible I am wrong. How many assets are we willing to shed to take the long shot (based on evidence plus a healthy dose of misplaced self-confidence on my part) that that's the case?
                        Noel is similar to biz but they're not identical.
                        Noel has way more upside and both have strengths and weaknesses.
                        Our center prospects are green. That's a big ask for a "contender". They have trouble not fouling out and if jv gets hurt for a stretch we are pretty thin.
                        I think it's possible to get noel for delon + Sully + 2nd
                        Noel signed long term is worth a lot more probably Ross and a 1st. Not sure but more than what he's worth now.
                        I think biz was crucial vs lebron last yr. That's our goal imo.
                        Maybe jv is the better fit. At least for this yr I'd rather have both guys and see the fit. We need all the weapons we can muster vs lebron. Delon does not play, Sully is a write off imo, 2nd pick is cost of business for a contender

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                        • Sorry if I misrepresented you Lupe.

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                          • golden wrote: View Post
                            You only get Noel after you've acquired the stud offensive PF (like LMA) to pair him with. Noel on his own makes no sense.
                            I think noel buys you time to trade jv if noel fits better and if we resign him. The pf could shake free in time. If not trade noel for at least a recoup, hopefully at a position of need. Delon is not a position of need unless Lowry leaves.

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                            • Good debate imo. Thx to all

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                              • This trade for a "star PF" isn't happening any time soon. None of their teams want the pieces we have.. I think it's time to move on.

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