Everything Valanciunas

[DanH]

I feel like this is so pointless to even debate because Casey and/or Kyle and DD simply will never use JV with 100% consistency. They treat JV as much a scoring option as Ross when they need to involve him just as much as KLow n DD but those guys simply don't trust or respect his game enough. Raps need to move him for a player that has already earned a reputation as an all-star in this league. The argument for using JV more is beating a dead horse.

DD's usage last year was 30%. It is 36% this year. This is not a "oh, we have the same old problem" problem. It's a problem that has gotten significantly worse from last year.

[DanH]

One more point on that JV-replacement search above - that's all with this year's numbers. If we used JV's numbers last year and restrict it to the larger sample of last season, those groups shrink even more without the small sample boosts some players are getting early in the year.

[KeonClark]

Exactly this. As great as demar is playing offensively his usg is insane. It would make more sense to take some of that energy expended on the offensive end and put it into the defense. Not to mention involving other guys would probably result in the side benefit of having them more engaged in the game overall (including defense). If we have an option on offense who's shown that he's capable of producing efficient offense what reason is there to not use him more?

Ego. Could effect all star apperances and or American media recognition.

[slaw]

Yep, we are very obviously not icing screens as much and again asking our bigs to come out and hedge more often. I see a big difference so far considering there's no reason we should be seeing any difference.

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Teams aren't running as much side screen and roll anymore and you can't really blue or ice a screen and roll run from up top, which is where they're having most of their issues. Also, as bluing the pick and roll has become en vogue I've noticed offences are doing a much, much better job of having the ballhandler go baseline, accept the 'soft double' and swing the ball to the wide open man looking for threes.

[jimmie]

Teams aren't running as much side screen and roll anymore and you can't really blue or ice a screen and roll run from up top, which is where they're having most of their issues. Also, as bluing the pick and roll has become en vogue I've noticed offences are doing a much, much better job of having the ballhandler go baseline, accept the 'soft double' and swing the ball to the wide open man looking for threes.

Not to beat a dead horse, but this is where I can see the argument from people for wanting a 'rim protector'/Noel/etc.-type. When the guards inevitably get burned on the penetration from the point, the help rotation always seems to be late or not there at all. That doesn't just go for JV. Even with Bebe, those are the plays where he usually gets his blocks, and that's awesome, but those blocks are sometimes coming because he's late rotating and happens to have Go-go-gadget arms.

We're not changing our guards (strong assumption on that one), so we need help inside on D, from somewhere. We had it last year, somehow. Whatever it takes to get that back (fingers crossed that maybe somehow it's Sully) has to be considered, because barring fast internal improvement from JV, Bebe, Poeltl and Siakam, I don't think this defense will go far into the playoffs.

[McRealistic]

DD's usage last year was 30%. It is 36% this year. This is not a "oh, we have the same old problem" problem. It's a problem that has gotten significantly worse from last year.

DD has been playing significantly better !!! Is this maybe why his usage has gone up because he had the HOT hand in almost 80% of the games this season ... I don't know if I call this a problem.

On the same token, maybe, just maybe , JV has not improved his game enough to increase his usage and hence KL, DD and Casey are not going to him !!!

[McRealistic]

One more point on that JV-replacement search above - that's all with this year's numbers. If we used JV's numbers last year and restrict it to the larger sample of last season, those groups shrink even more without the small sample boosts some players are getting early in the year.

Your point about JV and his production and his value based on his contract is a VALID one but I think what you are forgetting here is that he JUST does not FIT with KL,DD and Casey's system.

We can have 5 great players but if their style of play is not complementary and if they all do not fit into the system, then we have a problem and some sort of change needs to come.

[Lupe]

Production then. JV produces 14.4 PPG and 9.9 RPG.

There are 8 players in the league currently producing at that level (14+ PPG, 9.5+ RPG).

Now, on this team we need JV's replacement to be able to produce like that on moderate usage. But every other player on that list of 8 has a usage rate of at least 22% (JV's is 19%). Only Andre Drummond and Dwight Howard are below 25%.

OK, but that's not that rare, to be the only player in the league producing points and rebounds at that rate and with such a low usage. In any case, you just meant the scoring, because the new low usage defensive C will rebound as well as JV does, so we can handle having a lower rebounding scoring option at PF.

First off, let's find all the C's who can rebound pretty close to the rate JV does. JV has posted an OREB% of 12% and a DREB% of 26% this year. Let's walk back a bit and say 10% OREB% and 25% DREB%.

16 other qualified players this year. That's one for every other team. I'm sure there will be no problem finding a defence first stopper that will be available on this list:

Gobert, Whiteside, Howard, Jordan, Love, Gortat, Thompson, Capela, Drummond, Monroe, Black, Biyombo, Noah, Asik, Dedmon, Vucevic.

OK, so let's say we get one of those guys and they are the stopper we always dreamed of and can give us the rebounding too.

That leaves us free to chase the high efficiency offensive producer at the 4 that we need to replace JV's offensive production.

Let's see, high efficiency, right we need that to be able to produce the points with the lower usage. So, JV's TS% is 62.7% this season. So let's find guys who post 14 PPG on 60%+ TS%.

Chris Paul, Jimmy Butler, Harden, Durant, Curry, Conley, Lillard, Porzingis, Redick, Lou Williams, Myles Turner, Nick Young, Brook Lopez and Joel Embiid.

Notice how there are two PF's in the entire list (Turner and Porzingis) both of whom I'm sure are very available.

Could you outline for me who you meant when you say his production isn't that rare? I'm having a hard time finding said common producers even when I focus on only a couple areas of JV's production.

The way you framed that just took what I was saying completely out of context.

[white men can't jump]

Teams aren't running as much side screen and roll anymore and you can't really blue or ice a screen and roll run from up top, which is where they're having most of their issues. Also, as bluing the pick and roll has become en vogue I've noticed offences are doing a much, much better job of having the ballhandler go baseline, accept the 'soft double' and swing the ball to the wide open man looking for threes.

I dont know...GSW ran the side p'n'r a ton and i don't think we tried to ice the screen once. We let Curry get to the top of the key and because we werent icing, his roll man was always open because the guard had to go above the screen and big had to come hedge/double so that he wouldn't get open shots. Forcing the ball out of Curry's hands isn't really helpful if you're giving up open dunks/layups instead.

And that's Curry so if you're not icing you kind of have to do that, but our guards are going over the screens a ton in general. Not every PG needs to be played like that. I dont know why we do that against the Lawsons, Mudiays and Walls of the league.

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[KeonClark]

DD has been playing significantly better !!! Is this maybe why his usage has gone up because he had the HOT hand in almost 80% of the games this season ... I don't know if I call this a problem.

On the same token, maybe, just maybe , JV has not improved his game enough to increase his usage and hence KL, DD and Casey are not going to him !!!

Evidence please, give us evidence other than your Raptor Republic quick reactions.

3rd highest PPG despite being 8th on the team in shots per 36. Shooting 57% and 82% from free throw. #1 post up scorer in the NBA.

When he gets it, he scores with it. Not sure what you're hoping he do better

[Scraptor]

Production then. JV produces 14.4 PPG and 9.9 RPG.

There are 8 players in the league currently producing at that level (14+ PPG, 9.5+ RPG).

Now, on this team we need JV's replacement to be able to produce like that on moderate usage. But every other player on that list of 8 has a usage rate of at least 22% (JV's is 19%). Only Andre Drummond and Dwight Howard are below 25%.

OK, but that's not that rare, to be the only player in the league producing points and rebounds at that rate and with such a low usage. In any case, you just meant the scoring, because the new low usage defensive C will rebound as well as JV does, so we can handle having a lower rebounding scoring option at PF.

First off, let's find all the C's who can rebound pretty close to the rate JV does. JV has posted an OREB% of 12% and a DREB% of 26% this year. Let's walk back a bit and say 10% OREB% and 25% DREB%.

16 other qualified players this year. That's one for every other team. I'm sure there will be no problem finding a defence first stopper that will be available on this list:

Gobert, Whiteside, Howard, Jordan, Love, Gortat, Thompson, Capela, Drummond, Monroe, Black, Biyombo, Noah, Asik, Dedmon, Vucevic.

OK, so let's say we get one of those guys and they are the stopper we always dreamed of and can give us the rebounding too.

That leaves us free to chase the high efficiency offensive producer at the 4 that we need to replace JV's offensive production.

Let's see, high efficiency, right we need that to be able to produce the points with the lower usage. So, JV's TS% is 62.7% this season. So let's find guys who post 14 PPG on 60%+ TS%.

Chris Paul, Jimmy Butler, Harden, Durant, Curry, Conley, Lillard, Porzingis, Redick, Lou Williams, Myles Turner, Nick Young, Brook Lopez and Joel Embiid.

Notice how there are two PF's in the entire list (Turner and Porzingis) both of whom I'm sure are very available.

Could you outline for me who you meant when you say his production isn't that rare? I'm having a hard time finding said common producers even when I focus on only a couple areas of JV's production.

I don't think anyone is arguing that you can specifically duplicate what JV is giving us.

The argument is that you are seeking to maximize the efficiency and effectiveness of the team as a whole.

So rather than searching for an offensive option who gives us 14ppg on 60%TS, you need someone who gives us better than DeMar's 56.4%. And it doesn't really even need to be that much better, because there may be benefits simply to balancing the roster to have more of a center of gravity down low.

Cousins is producing 27.5ppg on 56.7% and the attention he commands opens things up for the rest of the team. One of the most-often repeated arguments about Rudy Gay's improved efficiency since joining the Kings is that he benefits from Cousins. Well someone like Cousins can give that to us. Those kind of effects can't be mathematically predicted, they just speak to how the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.

We're going to need to be creative in order to raise our ceiling. Yes it may be a risk to trade JV (who has certainly been efficient for us in his role) or make any other major move, but the alternative is to keep doing the same things over and over again expecting a different result.

[DanH]

I don't think anyone is arguing that you can specifically duplicate what JV is giving us.

The argument is that you are seeking to maximize the efficiency and effectiveness of the team as a whole.

So rather than searching for an offensive option who gives us 14ppg on 60%TS, you need someone who gives us better than DeMar's 56.4%. And it doesn't really even need to be that much better, because there may be benefits simply to balancing the roster to have more of a center of gravity down low.

Cousins is producing 27.5ppg on 56.7% and the attention he commands opens things up for the rest of the team. One of the most-often repeated arguments about Rudy Gay's improved efficiency since joining the Kings is that he benefits from Cousins. Well someone like Cousins can give that to us. Those kind of effects can't be mathematically predicted, they just speak to how the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.

We're going to need to be creative in order to raise our ceiling. Yes it may be a risk to trade JV (who has certainly been efficient for us in his role) or make any other major move, but the alternative is to keep doing the same things over and over again expecting a different result.

I don't disagree that Cousins is the sort of player who can provide a game changing presence and may be worth the change from JV. That wasn't really the topic though.

The suggestion was that we find a defensive C and an offensive PF who can provide what JV does. I did my best to establish what JV brings to the table offensively.

PS - We've been "doing the same things over and over again" for several years now and have increased our wins every season and made the ECF last year. Expecting different results based on players improving and usage slowly changing is not crazy.

[DanH]

The way you framed that just took what I was saying completely out of context.

Please provide the context then. Tell me what you meant, and we can continue. I thought you meant a PF who could provide similar production offensively that JV does. If production is not definable as scoring, efficiency or rebounding, I'm struggling to understand what you meant.

[Lupe]

I don't disagree that Cousins is the sort of player who can provide a game changing presence and may be worth the change from JV. That wasn't really the topic though.

The suggestion was that we find a defensive C and an offensive PF who can provide what JV does. I did my best to establish what JV brings to the table offensively.

Provide something comparable not the same.

[DanH]

Provide something comparable not the same.

Yeah, that's what I did, I dropped several percentage points back of his actual production, or the lists would be empty.

I tried to do that. So you give me what you consider to be comparable, and I'll find it.