Everything Valanciunas

[rocwell]

I thought Raps were showing off JV's potential as off. player over the last couple weeks. It makes sense now, I actually thought he's gonna get traded this year, but not anymore. I want to see how he looks next to Ibaka and against bench lineups.

[JamesNaismith]

Crossposting from the Lowe post podcast thread. Very interesting stuff:

Lots of Raps talk on the new Lowe post podcast.

http://cdn16.castfire.com/audio/303/...6src%3Ddesktop

-Lowe: Raps have no shot at 2nd seed
-FINALLY got off the pot and made a deal
-loves Ibaka trade, thinks it'll be even better for us than on paper
-Ibaka did not seem motivated in Orlando
-there is value in not playing bad players, which Patterson injury has forced us to do (Sullinger is out of shape disaster)
-interesting discussion about the value of all-offense, no-defense low post players like Monroe, Vucevic, and... Valanciunas (sometimes okay on D)
-Lowe is less convinced than ever that a defensive stretch 4 can be paired with plodding center, because the 4 is chasing his man on the perimeter, negating shotblocking benefits
-Ibaka + Jonas interesting test case, because our payroll will be huge
-believes we will have to cut salary to avoid tax bill
-Beck: Valanciunas joins pool of essentially unmovable players. Talked to an exec, there is a glut of big men like Monroe, Brook Lopez, all-o, no-d guys, Nets may not even get one first rounder for Lopez
-if you lined up all the all-o/no-d guys like Monroe, Jefferson, Okafor vs all-d/no-o guys like Gobert, Noel etc, execs choose later every time
-Lowe: league is skeptical Raps can dump Carroll without compensation

Interesting that the perception of Jonas seems now squarely in that Monroe/Vucevic group. We may really have missed the boat on getting full value for him, barring some kind of reversal in Casey's playing time/usage of him or a monster playoff run.

Been saying this all year....but noooo everyone is convinced we can package him for a superstar and especially now that Ross is gone and can't be included in any package. We need to find a good trade partner asap. I doubt that we can find a trade for him during this break but imo he's gotta be moved for someone of greater need (ie/ a defensive C or upgraded SF that's at a level close to Ibaka in terms of relative "name" value).

We need to ship Corey out right NOW and see if we can't package him for whatever position we don't target in a JV trade. Then of course in the off season re-sign Lowry and Ibaka and move JV for that final chess piece and see what we can do. Really if Corey, Sully can net us some minor upgrade for a back up at either SF or C and then JV plus whatever small asset(s) are used to a definitive upgrade at whichever position, we would suddenly truly be very close...

[GLF]

Crossposting from the Lowe post podcast thread. Very interesting stuff:

Lots of Raps talk on the new Lowe post podcast.

http://cdn16.castfire.com/audio/303/...6src%3Ddesktop

-Lowe: Raps have no shot at 2nd seed
-FINALLY got off the pot and made a deal
-loves Ibaka trade, thinks it'll be even better for us than on paper
-Ibaka did not seem motivated in Orlando
-there is value in not playing bad players, which Patterson injury has forced us to do (Sullinger is out of shape disaster)
-interesting discussion about the value of all-offense, no-defense low post players like Monroe, Vucevic, and... Valanciunas (sometimes okay on D)
-Lowe is less convinced than ever that a defensive stretch 4 can be paired with plodding center, because the 4 is chasing his man on the perimeter, negating shotblocking benefits
-Ibaka + Jonas interesting test case, because our payroll will be huge
-believes we will have to cut salary to avoid tax bill
-Beck: Valanciunas joins pool of essentially unmovable players. Talked to an exec, there is a glut of big men like Monroe, Brook Lopez, all-o, no-d guys, Nets may not even get one first rounder for Lopez
-if you lined up all the all-o/no-d guys like Monroe, Jefferson, Okafor vs all-d/no-o guys like Gobert, Noel etc, execs choose later every time
-Lowe: league is skeptical Raps can dump Carroll without compensation

Interesting that the perception of Jonas seems now squarely in that Monroe/Vucevic group. We may really have missed the boat on getting full value for him, barring some kind of reversal in Casey's playing time/usage of him or a monster playoff run.

He makes some good points. He's definitely not as high on JV as some people on this board are. I hope he's wrong about the Ibaka and JV fit defensively because we need our defence to improve but he could be completely right. Time will tell. I already know JV will get no fourth quarter minutes and Ibaka will close games at the 5 most nights so there's that .The thing is JV is still the best rim protector and overall defender in comparison to a lot of those bigs he's comparing him to, so hopefully that makes a difference. Stats might actually not back that up I'm just using the eye test. But it is true that in the NBA now teams would definitely rather have the no o all d bigs than the no d all o bigs. I'm excited to see how Ibaka and JV plays out. For once I hope Lowe is wrong.

[DanH]

My hope is that if Ibaka and Pat get established as the closing pair, you run JV out to start the 4th with one and then the other of them to make sure each is fresh at the end (ie so neither Pat nor Ibaka plays all 12 minutes in the 4th). You don't realistically want either of Ibaka or Pat to be playing much more than 30 MPG, so you still have plenty of opportunity to leverage JV's skill set throughout the game even if you are set on different closing bigs (and you may not be).

[Jangles]

JV can't even get 20 mins without Pat and Ibaka. He will be lucky to get 15 after the all star break.

At this point I'm hoping he has a strong postseason to drive his value up so we can get a decent refund for him next year.

[Jangles]

Return.

[DanH]

JV can't even get 20 mins without Pat and Ibaka. He will be lucky to get 15 after the all star break.

At this point I'm hoping he has a strong postseason to drive his value up so we can get a decent refund for him next year.

Well, that's a little hyperbolic. JV is averaging about 27 minutes, more than last year or the year before (though not by a lot). He's only been under 20 minutes once since the new year turned, and that was the foul-ridden BOS game. He's been underused the past couple of games (though last night I have less issue with it - the quick hook in the 3rd was a little silly, but I fully support riding that 4th Q lineup to the end), but in the 5 games before those two, he averaged over 30 MPG (which is where he should be most nights).

And part of why it has been hard to keep him on the floor some nights is the lack of a reasonable PF partner. JV is very good, but definitely a little more restricted in terms of acceptable front court partners than a less talented but more malleable player like BeBe or Poeltl (talent judgment remains to be seen with him, but for the moment...). With Ibaka and Pat both probably being great fits beside JV, I think there's just as much chance we see his minutes sustain or even increase (especially in the playoffs). BeBe has been very unreliable lately (and has been proving that most of his success has been because he was tied to Pat's apron strings), and with Ibaka taking some minutes at the 5 (probably just to close in some matchups, at least at first), I'd hope it would be BeBe who saw his minutes shrink a bit. He's a good backup, but he does not need to be playing 22 MPG - 16-18 is more his sweet spot in terms of effectiveness.

[KHD]

Well, that's a little hyperbolic. JV is averaging about 27 minutes, more than last year or the year before (though not by a lot). He's only been under 20 minutes once since the new year turned, and that was the foul-ridden BOS game. He's been underused the past couple of games (though last night I have less issue with it - the quick hook in the 3rd was a little silly, but I fully support riding that 4th Q lineup to the end), but in the 5 games before those two, he averaged over 30 MPG (which is where he should be most nights).

And part of why it has been hard to keep him on the floor some nights is the lack of a reasonable PF partner. JV is very good, but definitely a little more restricted in terms of acceptable front court partners than a less talented but more malleable player like BeBe or Poeltl (talent judgment remains to be seen with him, but for the moment...). With Ibaka and Pat both probably being great fits beside JV, I think there's just as much chance we see his minutes sustain or even increase (especially in the playoffs). BeBe has been very unreliable lately (and has been proving that most of his success has been because he was tied to Pat's apron strings), and with Ibaka taking some minutes at the 5 (probably just to close in some matchups, at least at first), I'd hope it would be BeBe who saw his minutes shrink a bit. He's a good backup, but he does not need to be playing 22 MPG - 16-18 is more his sweet spot in terms of effectiveness.

this assumes a reasonable coach who doesn't play favourites, not a guy who has in the past raved about John Salmons, Alan Anderson, Lou Williams, Luis Scola, and now Lucas Nogueira over clearly better options.

[Jangles]

Well, that's a little hyperbolic. JV is averaging about 27 minutes, more than last year or the year before (though not by a lot). He's only been under 20 minutes once since the new year turned, and that was the foul-ridden BOS game. He's been underused the past couple of games (though last night I have less issue with it - the quick hook in the 3rd was a little silly, but I fully support riding that 4th Q lineup to the end), but in the 5 games before those two, he averaged over 30 MPG (which is where he should be most nights).

And part of why it has been hard to keep him on the floor some nights is the lack of a reasonable PF partner. JV is very good, but definitely a little more restricted in terms of acceptable front court partners than a less talented but more malleable player like BeBe or Poeltl (talent judgment remains to be seen with him, but for the moment...). With Ibaka and Pat both probably being great fits beside JV, I think there's just as much chance we see his minutes sustain or even increase (especially in the playoffs). BeBe has been very unreliable lately (and has been proving that most of his success has been because he was tied to Pat's apron strings), and with Ibaka taking some minutes at the 5 (probably just to close in some matchups, at least at first), I'd hope it would be BeBe who saw his minutes shrink a bit. He's a good backup, but he does not need to be playing 22 MPG - 16-18 is more his sweet spot in terms of effectiveness.

It seems that Casey's last choice is JV nowadays. Against Chicago, he went to Bebe, Poeltl and then back to Bebe for the final 18-20 minutes of the game. Bebe has not been playing well, yet he has been getting more minutes than JV it seems. Mind you its only been a few games of this but in Casey's mind, JV is a defensive liability and he always will be. He couldn't have started these last 2 games any better, yet he only saw 5-6 minutes in the second half of both games.

JV must be so confused. His coach calls him out saying he needs to score and grab every rebound to earn his minutes and yet 10 & 5 in 8 minutes is not enough to see even 25 minutes last night?

I will remain a little optimistic and hope that JV and Ibaka work well together and force Casey's hand, but I won't be surprised if JV becomes even more of an afterthought than he already is.

[KHD]

It seems that Casey's last choice is JV nowadays. Against Chicago, he went to Bebe, Poeltl and then back to Bebe for the final 18-20 minutes of the game. Bebe has not been playing well, yet he has been getting more minutes than JV it seems. Mind you its only been a few games of this but in Casey's mind, JV is a defensive liability and he always will be. He couldn't have started these last 2 games any better, yet he only saw 5-6 minutes in the second half of both games.

JV must be so confused. His coach calls him out saying he needs to score and grab every rebound to earn his minutes and yet 10 & 5 in 8 minutes is not enough to see even 25 minutes last night?

I will remain a little optimistic and hope that JV and Ibaka work well together and force Casey's hand, but I won't be surprised if JV becomes even more of an afterthought than he already is.

me neither.

The frustrating thing to me is that Valanciunas has been hot early in many games of late and our offence and defence have both looked good. Then, we take him out at the 8 minute mark and our offence goes to hell. We isolate, and take a bunch of shitty shots that lead to transition defence possessions.

Once JV comes back in we don't go back to what was working. He stands around on offence, sets a couple screens, and ends up having to run back on D from a poor position because Demar or Kyle took a shitty iso jumper. Then everyone blames him for being terrible on defence.

If we would go back to what was working in the 1st quarter when JV came back into the game we would be scoring more effectively or at least taking smarter shots that allow defensive rotation for guys to get back, both of which would reduce the amount of scrambling on transition D. And he'd be more engaged.

The 1-5 pick and roll is really the only thing that he's actually just bad in on defence right now, and even that is quite amplified by the scheme. If he can figure out how to defend that adequately he's not someone that anyone with half a brain (i.e. not dwane casey) can blame for being a liability.

I like JV, i think he's a good teammate who never asks for more (publicly at least), and i still think he's got a lot of potential even though everyone wants to be golden state. But I really doubt that Casey will ever be able to implement him correctly.

[Raptorsnz]

I think there's almost no way in hell JV finishes games now, Casey's gonna jizz at being able to use Patterson-Ibaka as our frontline.

[LJ2]

I think there's almost no way in hell JV finishes games now, Casey's gonna jizz at being able to use Patterson-Ibaka as our frontline.

Shouldn't we all be? Not jizzing but be excited I mean?

[Jangles]

I think there's almost no way in hell JV finishes games now, Casey's gonna jizz at being able to use Patterson-Ibaka as our frontline.

JV's gonna play 6-8 mins in the first Q. 5-7 mins in the 2nd. 5-7 in the 3rd and likely 0 in the 4th. I'm predicting that from Feb 24/17 - Apr 12/17, JV averages 18.7 mpg.

[JamesNaismith]

JV's gonna play 6-8 mins in the first Q. 5-7 mins in the 2nd. 5-7 in the 3rd and likely 0 in the 4th. I'm predicting that from Feb 24/17 - Apr 12/17, JV averages 18.7 mpg.

Yup and by that time he will totally killed all trade value for JV making him our version of Monroe, just wonderful.

[S.R.]

I see what Zach Lowe's saying about all-O no-D centre's, I don't agree with him in lumping Jonas in a group with the likes of Greg Monroe and Al Jefferson, Jonas is just flat out better than those guys.

It's important not to overreact. The days of playing a guy like Jonas 35 mpg will never come back, that doesn't mean he can't be a tremendous help to your team for 25-30 mpg especially given particular matchups.

Case in point - these rangey, all-D no-O I guys everyone is in love with like Gobert and Whiteside are exactly the types of guys Jonas is the perfect counterpunch for. They don't have the range to pull him away from the basket so he can stay at home, all he has to do is disrupt their lobs. On the other end they have to stick to him, they can't roam and provide the mobile, shot blocking help defence that everyone loves them for because they have to guard Jonas in the post. And Jonas can put pressure on them in the post and put them in foul trouble (this happened last Utah game vs Gobert) in a way that very few C's can and no other C on the Raptors roster can. This is why Jonas looked so good vs Evan Turner and Whiteside last spring. Whiteside would be a huge pain in the ass matched up against anyone on this roster other than Jonas, JV is the one guy who can go at him hard.

Having the option of JV lineups and Ibaka/PP lineups is the best of both worlds. Jonas isn't underused and he isn't a relic. In today's NBA, 25-30 mpg is probably what he can expect for the rest of his career no matter who's his coach.