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  • DanH wrote: View Post
    So, to be clear, you think JV playing with DD-led bench units is a really good idea. Putting the two guys you say need to be kept away from each other together, in lineups without Ibaka at PF to give a defensive boost, or Lowry at PG to be the tide that lifts all boats... They would do better with essentially a rookie PG and a sophomore PF around that pairing...

    And your concern is that the starting lineup will struggle defensively with JV and DeMar in it, because the starting lineup for the vast majority of the post-all star break stretch struggled defensively? Oh, wait, they had a 104.4 DRTG (would rank as the 6th best team defence in the league). Perhaps it's because other lineups with JV and DD struggled defensively. Let's look at their most used lineups playing together. Hmm, they played in 5 lineups with at least 82 total MP (ie 1 MPG), and the 5 lineups were as follows:

    KL-DD-DC-PS-JV: 115.5 DRTG (oh my goodness you are right these two can't defend to save their lives)
    CJ-DD-DC-SI-JV: 104.4 DRTG (covered this above, must be an aberration)
    KL-DD-DC-PP-JV: 102.2 DRTG (huh, weird, I'm sure the rest will be awful defensively)
    KL-DD-DC-LN-JV: 98.9 DRTG (well that's clearly wrong)
    CJ-DD-PT-SI-JV: 105.8 DRTG (hey! That would only be an above average defence!)

    OK, so, I'm losing the thread here. I'm pretty sure the narrative is supposed to be that DD and JV can't play together defensively so they both shouldn't start. Instead Pascal Siakam should start beside Ibaka yeah? Wait, I thought I saw Siakam pop up somewhere up there. Probably not in the worst defensive unit by a country mile in that list though. He certainly wouldn't be the only difference between the best defensive lineups and the hilariously bad one. Definitely not. That would make the suggestion that DD and JV are the defensive issues with those lineups seem a little misguided, nevermind the thinking that Pascal Siakam is that reliable defender to replace one of them.

    Yeah, better ignore all that and of course also all the evidence that suggests that JV is used even less in DD-led bench units, and just blindly push a lineup change for no real reason.

    Gah.

    Hey, maybe you meant Poeltl and his team leading 6.5 personal fouls per 36 minutes should be starting instead.
    Bahahhahhahahaahahahahaaahahahhahahahhhhahaa! Dan H is truly undefeated. What's that? Facts.
    I relish negativity and disappointment. It is not healthy. Somebody buy me a pony.

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    • DanH wrote: View Post
      So, to be clear, you think JV playing with DD-led bench units is a really good idea. Putting the two guys you say need to be kept away from each other together, in lineups without Ibaka at PF to give a defensive boost, or Lowry at PG to be the tide that lifts all boats... They would do better with essentially a rookie PG and a sophomore PF around that pairing...

      And your concern is that the starting lineup will struggle defensively with JV and DeMar in it, because the starting lineup for the vast majority of the post-all star break stretch struggled defensively? Oh, wait, they had a 104.4 DRTG (would rank as the 6th best team defence in the league). Perhaps it's because other lineups with JV and DD struggled defensively. Let's look at their most used lineups playing together. Hmm, they played in 5 lineups with at least 82 total MP (ie 1 MPG), and the 5 lineups were as follows:

      KL-DD-DC-PS-JV: 115.5 DRTG (oh my goodness you are right these two can't defend to save their lives)
      CJ-DD-DC-SI-JV: 104.4 DRTG (covered this above, must be an aberration)
      KL-DD-DC-PP-JV: 102.2 DRTG (huh, weird, I'm sure the rest will be awful defensively)
      KL-DD-DC-LN-JV: 98.9 DRTG (well that's clearly wrong)
      CJ-DD-PT-SI-JV: 105.8 DRTG (hey! That would only be an above average defence!)

      OK, so, I'm losing the thread here. I'm pretty sure the narrative is supposed to be that DD and JV can't play together defensively so they both shouldn't start. Instead Pascal Siakam should start beside Ibaka yeah? Wait, I thought I saw Siakam pop up somewhere up there. Probably not in the worst defensive unit by a country mile in that list though. He certainly wouldn't be the only difference between the best defensive lineups and the hilariously bad one. Definitely not. That would make the suggestion that DD and JV are the defensive issues with those lineups seem a little misguided, nevermind the thinking that Pascal Siakam is that reliable defender to replace one of them.

      Yeah, better ignore all that and of course also all the evidence that suggests that JV is used even less in DD-led bench units, and just blindly push a lineup change for no real reason.

      Gah.

      Hey, maybe you meant Poeltl and his team leading 6.5 personal fouls per 36 minutes should be starting instead.
      Why aren't you coaching

      Comment


      • GLF wrote: View Post
        Bahahhahhahahaahahahahaaahahahhahahahhhhahaa! Dan H is truly undefeated. What's that? Facts.
        It's pretty obvious JV is not in this teams longer term plans. So people are thinking of the best way to maximize his talents so we can get a good return instead of just dumping. Which will happen to bring back Powell next summer.

        If JV stays in the starting lineup all he will is an efficient garbage man. I personally don't have a problem with that but, that's not going to increase his value.

        Sent from my LG-H831 using Tapatalk
        Last edited by Chr1s1anL; Wed Jul 19th, 2017, 05:32 AM.
        @Chr1st1anL

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        • DanH wrote: View Post
          So, to be clear, you think JV playing with DD-led bench units is a really good idea. Putting the two guys you say need to be kept away from each other together, in lineups without Ibaka at PF to give a defensive boost, or Lowry at PG to be the tide that lifts all boats... They would do better with essentially a rookie PG and a sophomore PF around that pairing...

          And your concern is that the starting lineup will struggle defensively with JV and DeMar in it, because the starting lineup for the vast majority of the post-all star break stretch struggled defensively? Oh, wait, they had a 104.4 DRTG (would rank as the 6th best team defence in the league). Perhaps it's because other lineups with JV and DD struggled defensively. Let's look at their most used lineups playing together. Hmm, they played in 5 lineups with at least 82 total MP (ie 1 MPG), and the 5 lineups were as follows:

          KL-DD-DC-PS-JV: 115.5 DRTG (oh my goodness you are right these two can't defend to save their lives)
          CJ-DD-DC-SI-JV: 104.4 DRTG (covered this above, must be an aberration)
          KL-DD-DC-PP-JV: 102.2 DRTG (huh, weird, I'm sure the rest will be awful defensively)
          KL-DD-DC-LN-JV: 98.9 DRTG (well that's clearly wrong)
          CJ-DD-PT-SI-JV: 105.8 DRTG (hey! That would only be an above average defence!)

          OK, so, I'm losing the thread here. I'm pretty sure the narrative is supposed to be that DD and JV can't play together defensively so they both shouldn't start. Instead Pascal Siakam should start beside Ibaka yeah? Wait, I thought I saw Siakam pop up somewhere up there. Probably not in the worst defensive unit by a country mile in that list though. He certainly wouldn't be the only difference between the best defensive lineups and the hilariously bad one. Definitely not. That would make the suggestion that DD and JV are the defensive issues with those lineups seem a little misguided, nevermind the thinking that Pascal Siakam is that reliable defender to replace one of them.

          Yeah, better ignore all that and of course also all the evidence that suggests that JV is used even less in DD-led bench units, and just blindly push a lineup change for no real reason.

          Gah.

          Hey, maybe you meant Poeltl and his team leading 6.5 personal fouls per 36 minutes should be starting instead.
          Dan, do you think Poeltl/Siakam are better defenders than JV? If so if JV can look so good next to Ibaka on D. Dont you think the D would be even better with Poeltl/Siakam next to Ibaka? Shouldnt we try to have the best possible D as possible. Instead of just settling with what we have.

          Sent from my LG-H831 using Tapatalk
          Last edited by Chr1s1anL; Wed Jul 19th, 2017, 04:23 AM.
          @Chr1st1anL

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          • DanH wrote: View Post
            So, to be clear, you think JV playing with DD-led bench units is a really good idea. Putting the two guys you say need to be kept away from each other together, in lineups without Ibaka at PF to give a defensive boost, or Lowry at PG to be the tide that lifts all boats... They would do better with essentially a rookie PG and a sophomore PF around that pairing...

            And your concern is that the starting lineup will struggle defensively with JV and DeMar in it, because the starting lineup for the vast majority of the post-all star break stretch struggled defensively? Oh, wait, they had a 104.4 DRTG (would rank as the 6th best team defence in the league). Perhaps it's because other lineups with JV and DD struggled defensively. Let's look at their most used lineups playing together. Hmm, they played in 5 lineups with at least 82 total MP (ie 1 MPG), and the 5 lineups were as follows:

            KL-DD-DC-PS-JV: 115.5 DRTG (oh my goodness you are right these two can't defend to save their lives)
            CJ-DD-DC-SI-JV: 104.4 DRTG (covered this above, must be an aberration)
            KL-DD-DC-PP-JV: 102.2 DRTG (huh, weird, I'm sure the rest will be awful defensively)
            KL-DD-DC-LN-JV: 98.9 DRTG (well that's clearly wrong)
            CJ-DD-PT-SI-JV: 105.8 DRTG (hey! That would only be an above average defence!)

            OK, so, I'm losing the thread here. I'm pretty sure the narrative is supposed to be that DD and JV can't play together defensively so they both shouldn't start. Instead Pascal Siakam should start beside Ibaka yeah? Wait, I thought I saw Siakam pop up somewhere up there. Probably not in the worst defensive unit by a country mile in that list though. He certainly wouldn't be the only difference between the best defensive lineups and the hilariously bad one. Definitely not. That would make the suggestion that DD and JV are the defensive issues with those lineups seem a little misguided, nevermind the thinking that Pascal Siakam is that reliable defender to replace one of them.

            Yeah, better ignore all that and of course also all the evidence that suggests that JV is used even less in DD-led bench units, and just blindly push a lineup change for no real reason.

            Gah.

            Hey, maybe you meant Poeltl and his team leading 6.5 personal fouls per 36 minutes should be starting instead.
            Poeltl is a second year player, we don't know everything he's capable of yet.

            Also those lineup stats are basically irrelevant since we didn't even really see Lowry, DeRozan, JV and Ibaka all start together in the regular season last year for more than a few games.

            We do know that in the playoffs against Milwaukee we were really struggling defensively with JV starting with 110.9, 109.4 and 116.5 dRTGs in the first three games. When he moved to the bench we had 80.9, 101.3, and 105.0 dRTGs.

            Although I don't like the way we handled him offensively off the bench in those games, because he wasn't getting enough looks. Think that might change though with Wright especially, who's not really going to look to mainly score and is more of a pass-first guy.

            There's definitely a lot of credence to the idea, it just depends on what your starting point is. If you're starting from a place where JV absolutely must start then you're only going to look for "evidence" that supports that idea. Also, again this isn't about bashing JV at all, it's about what's best for the team and his game.

            There are a lot of teams that don't start their best 5 players, including the current NBA champions.

            Comment


            • Yes, as expected, the only counterpoint is a teeny tiny sample of a lineup that barely played together.

              I'm not starting from a point where JV must start. I'm looking at the evidence and determining that based on the available information. Same as how I was certain Patterson should start the past two seasons, without starting from the assumption that he must (what with him not having done so the prior seasons). Believe it or not, and I know this is a wild claim, I'm capable of making an argument that disagrees with yours, without just being a puppet of some imaginary bias that makes my conclusions invalid.

              If you could please make any attempt to actually counter any of my points, and support the idea that JV playing with the DeMar-and-bench unit, while Poeltl or Siakam are forced to play against starting units (with Ibaka possibly forced to play against starting C's), is "best for the team," this conversation might go somewhere. But all I'm getting is "contrary to all the evidence, except this tiny sample that any reasonable person would laugh off as meaningless, I'm going to say JV not starting is best for the team, and rather than provide any evidence of that whatsoever, I'll just accuse you of bias - problem solved!"

              If the argument is that JV doesn't match up well when the opposition starts a PF at C (and that Ibaka matches up terribly against real C's like Monroe), yeah, you are right. Good job. It's very much a part of why I think JV should start.

              I also agree that Poeltl is a second year player and we have no idea what he is capable of. That is very much part of my logic why we should play him regularly in a somewhat protected bench role before throwing him to the wolves.
              twitter.com/dhackett1565

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              • Chr1s1anL wrote: View Post
                Dan, do you think Poeltl/Siakam are better defenders than JV? If so if JV can look so good next to Ibaka on D. Dont you think the D would be even better with Poeltl/Siakam next to Ibaka? Shouldnt we try to have the best possible D as possible. Instead of just settling with what we have.

                Sent from my LG-H831 using Tapatalk
                I do not think Siakam is a better defender than JV. I do think Poeltl, when he's not fouling guys (which is rarely), is a better defender than JV (in space at least, which is probably the area of concern here). But I also think that the best defensive lineup, much like the best lineup, is not always just the 5 best defenders on the floor together. Having players who complement each other's strengths is important.

                We searched for years for a competent PF to start beside JV. Now that we have one, everyone wants to start him in place of JV and run out a young unproven player beside him. It's very strange to me, especially considering the defensive and overall success of lineups with JV where he's played with the good PFs on the team.

                We should try to have the best success possible. Running the best defensive lineup possible gets you nowhere if they can't score to save their lives.
                twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                • DanH wrote: View Post
                  Yes, as expected, the only counterpoint is a teeny tiny sample of a lineup that barely played together.

                  I'm not starting from a point where JV must start. I'm looking at the evidence and determining that based on the available information. Same as how I was certain Patterson should start the past two seasons, without starting from the assumption that he must (what with him not having done so the prior seasons). Believe it or not, and I know this is a wild claim, I'm capable of making an argument that disagrees with yours, without just being a puppet of some imaginary bias that makes my conclusions invalid.

                  If you could please make any attempt to actually counter any of my points, and support the idea that JV playing with the DeMar-and-bench unit, while Poeltl or Siakam are forced to play against starting units (with Ibaka possibly forced to play against starting C's), is "best for the team," this conversation might go somewhere. But all I'm getting is "contrary to all the evidence, except this tiny sample that any reasonable person would laugh off as meaningless, I'm going to say JV not starting is best for the team, and rather than provide any evidence of that whatsoever, I'll just accuse you of bias - problem solved!"

                  If the argument is that JV doesn't match up well when the opposition starts a PF at C (and that Ibaka matches up terribly against real C's like Monroe), yeah, you are right. Good job. It's very much a part of why I think JV should start.

                  I also agree that Poeltl is a second year player and we have no idea what he is capable of. That is very much part of my logic why we should play him regularly in a somewhat protected bench role before throwing him to the wolves.
                  I've presented plenty of evidence you just aren't interested in it. Most of the cases I've shown have been how it works on other teams, given that we've only ever actually tried doing it for 4 playoff games (where it was successful). I think Poeltl is already a better defensive player than JV, and his rebounding rate looks promising. He's not going to play 30mpg, JV would still play more than him, but Poeltl would run out there with Ibaka, Lowry, DD and whoever starts at SF to start the game.

                  I'd rather not watch a Wright-DeRozan-(Miles or Powell)-Siakam-Poeltl lineup off the bench a lot, which is what's going to happen if JV plays with the starters unless you think Casey is going to start playing him upwards of 30mpg. That lineup all of a sudden looks a lot better with JV instead of Poeltl because you have an actual secondary scoring option to DeMar on the court. You can point to lineups last year where JV still wasn't getting a lot of looks there if you want, but Wright is not Joseph and he isn't going to be looking for his own shot, he's actually a pass-first PG. Plus the DeRozan-JV pick and roll is one of our best offensive plays.

                  People keep harping on how JV is more skilled than the Robin Lopez role he has with the starters indicates, so let's let him thrive off the bench and get the chance to get some post-ups, some more actual touches off the pick and roll especially with Wright and more mid-range catch and shoot or 1 on 1 opportunities against bench bigs who are not going to be able to guard him. Depending on how each individual game goes, he could close in the 4th as well or maybe not.

                  The reality is there is merit to the idea and it absolutely should be tried. People seem to be very against the idea of a 6th man center, but the reasons aren't that different from why Lou Will came off the bench for Terrence Ross. Lou was the way better player, but Ross' skillset on both ends fit better with the starters, plus since Lou mainly played with just one of DeMar or Lowry he was able to get on the ball more when he played.

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                  • Masai on JV

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                    • rocwell wrote: View Post
                      Masai on JV

                      For the record I am not an advocate of dumping JV at all.

                      I think he is legitimately capable of 15-10 off the bench.

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                      • Shaolin Fantastic wrote: View Post
                        For the record I am not an advocate of dumping JV at all.

                        I think he is legitimately capable of 15-10 off the bench.
                        I didn't even read your posts mate. Just posted this quote in case someone missed it

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                        • DanH wrote: View Post
                          I do not think Siakam is a better defender than JV. I do think Poeltl, when he's not fouling guys (which is rarely), is a better defender than JV (in space at least, which is probably the area of concern here). But I also think that the best defensive lineup, much like the best lineup, is not always just the 5 best defenders on the floor together. Having players who complement each other's strengths is important.

                          We searched for years for a competent PF to start beside JV. Now that we have one, everyone wants to start him in place of JV and run out a young unproven player beside him. It's very strange to me, especially considering the defensive and overall success of lineups with JV where he's played with the good PFs on the team.

                          We should try to have the best success possible. Running the best defensive lineup possible gets you nowhere if they can't score to save their lives.
                          Jerry Stackhouse on national TV said that he believe that Siakam is the best defensive player on the team. So I can't agree with you there. In regards to Yak and fouls. Didn't JV struggle with fouls his first year too? I'm sure it got better the next year when he started for a playoff team.

                          Sent from my LG-H831 using Tapatalk
                          @Chr1st1anL

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                          • Shaolin Fantastic wrote: View Post
                            I've presented plenty of evidence you just aren't interested in it. Most of the cases I've shown have been how it works on other teams, given that we've only ever actually tried doing it for 4 playoff games (where it was successful). I think Poeltl is already a better defensive player than JV, and his rebounding rate looks promising. He's not going to play 30mpg, JV would still play more than him, but Poeltl would run out there with Ibaka, Lowry, DD and whoever starts at SF to start the game.

                            I'd rather not watch a Wright-DeRozan-(Miles or Powell)-Siakam-Poeltl lineup off the bench a lot, which is what's going to happen if JV plays with the starters unless you think Casey is going to start playing him upwards of 30mpg. That lineup all of a sudden looks a lot better with JV instead of Poeltl because you have an actual secondary scoring option to DeMar on the court. You can point to lineups last year where JV still wasn't getting a lot of looks there if you want, but Wright is not Joseph and he isn't going to be looking for his own shot, he's actually a pass-first PG. Plus the DeRozan-JV pick and roll is one of our best offensive plays.

                            People keep harping on how JV is more skilled than the Robin Lopez role he has with the starters indicates, so let's let him thrive off the bench and get the chance to get some post-ups, some more actual touches off the pick and roll especially with Wright and more mid-range catch and shoot or 1 on 1 opportunities against bench bigs who are not going to be able to guard him. Depending on how each individual game goes, he could close in the 4th as well or maybe not.

                            The reality is there is merit to the idea and it absolutely should be tried. People seem to be very against the idea of a 6th man center, but the reasons aren't that different from why Lou Will came off the bench for Terrence Ross. Lou was the way better player, but Ross' skillset on both ends fit better with the starters, plus since Lou mainly played with just one of DeMar or Lowry he was able to get on the ball more when he played.
                            I think you may notice that not once have I made the "best 5 should start" argument. Nor was it ever part of my argument.

                            My argument is, and has been:

                            a) Ibaka should not start at C. He has had success in short spurts there, but will wear down over a full season of playing against the biggest players in the league, and without a consistent shooting threat at the 4, the team will not even get the full benefit of him playing there. He'll still finish games at C, with ideally more shooters around him as teams go small late.

                            b) Siakam and Poeltl are not ready to start. Neither has shown they are capable of playing consistent minutes against starters, Siakam having proven the opposite quite soundly, and Poeltl barely having a chance to play a bench role last year. Give these guys some time to grow into their games before making them play against superior opposition every night. They'll probably still get spot start opportunities whenever JV/Ibaka get hurt throughout the course of the year, and hopefully they can step into those roles when need be.

                            c) Valanciunas has had tremendous success in every major minute lineup he's played in when he hasn't been tied to a boat anchor starting at PF when they shouldn't be. All evidence points to JV not being the problem with the starting lineup. He still has his limitations, and I'd still want him paired up with Lowry as much as possible to help shield those limitations - which is part of why I suggest the minutes distribution I do.

                            d) Valanciunas' skill set would not in fact be easily replaced in the starting lineup. His elite rebounding on both ends of the floor is a large part of what, in theory, allows a guy like Ibaka to be the primary help defender or switch on the perimeter (leaving a guard with a rebounding mismatch). Poeltl's defensive rebound rate is not even remotely promising and I'm not sure how anyone can perceive it as so (we are primarily talking about defence here, aren't we?).

                            e) Absolutely, I think Valanciunas should be getting minutes with bench units, specifically ones he actually fits with. He doesn't remotely fit with the DeRozan bench unit. Heck, even the DD-JV PnR action that is so deadly is only deadly in the starting lineup with shooters around it (Lowry, Ibaka and Powell/Miles; last year it was in Patterson-Lowry units that the DD-JV action was most used and most useful). Put that action in play with Wright and Siakam as two of your off ball players and it goes nowhere. So keep JV with the starters, run that action there, and give him more PnR actions with Wright in the Lowry bench unit. Time with the bench will help JV defensively, so getting him half his minutes there makes perfect sense.

                            The reality is, there is some merit to all sorts of ideas. They should not or can not all be tried. I do not think there is evidence that this one is worth trying. The way you use the term 6th man centre makes me think you are under the impression JV will see a massive usage spike if he comes off the bench (similar to Lou Will's usage there). That's laughable. This team plays one way and one way only. JV's success will come as a screener playing off of the guards, such is life with this system. JV might be able to stretch up to the low-mid 20's in usage (like he did with the Lowry bench unit) if they look for him, but he'll never be used as a sixth man scorer. And if he plays big minutes with the DeRozan bench unit, you can throw all that extra usage from the Lowry version right out the window.

                            Hey, wait, you think Joseph was the problem in the DeMar bench units? Joseph posted an 18% usage rate when Lowry was off the court. DeRozan posted a 37% usage rate when Lowry sat. 37! DeRozan completely takes over the offence when he's the only star on the court, which is why JV sees his usage drop in that scenario, even compared to the "too many high usage players" starting lineup. Wright's not going to fix that.
                            twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                            • Chr1s1anL wrote: View Post
                              Jerry Stackhouse on national TV said that he believe that Siakam is the best defensive player on the team. So I can't agree with you there. In regards to Yak and fouls. Didn't JV struggle with fouls his first year too? I'm sure it got better the next year when he started for a playoff team.

                              Sent from my LG-H831 using Tapatalk
                              JV's foul rate was a lot lower as a rookie than Poeltl's (6.7 per 100 poss compared to 9.1). But that also might be because he was a day one starter so you have more of a responsibility to avoid fouls and try to stay on the floor. Poeltl was only getting 11mpg, so for those minutes you play full throttle and if you foul, you foul because you're coming out anyway.

                              I think Poeltl has way more potential on the defensive end of the floor. Really think we could use them like Adams and Kanter but nobody wants to do it.

                              Comment


                              • Chr1s1anL wrote: View Post
                                Jerry Stackhouse on national TV said that he believe that Siakam is the best defensive player on the team. So I can't agree with you there. In regards to Yak and fouls. Didn't JV struggle with fouls his first year too? I'm sure it got better the next year when he started for a playoff team.

                                Sent from my LG-H831 using Tapatalk
                                Whether you agree with me or not has very little bearing on my stance. Same goes for Stackhouse fluffing one of his players on TV. Siakam has all the tools, and I can see what Stackhouse sees in him. Heck, a few years down the road I expect him to be a very solid, versatile defender; maybe as soon as next year if we give him some consistent run out there rather than jerking him around in and out of the starting unit and lineup, period. But last year, with all his gifts, he had no idea where he should be on the floor. His help was erratic, often either late or way too early or in entirely the wrong place. With time that will improve. I just don't like giving young learning players their reps against starting quality opposition - we saw what happens when you do that just last season, with Pascal himself.

                                Oh, did JV struggle with fouls his first year? Yeah, he had a very high 4.6 PF per 36 minutes. That's too much. He did improve rather dramatically in his second year, reducing his PF rate by 15%, down to 3.9 PF/36. He's sat around that point ever since (edged slightly lower over time, but not much). If Poeltl was to reduce his foul rate by a similar 15% (no guarantee of that), he'd be all the way down at... 5.5 PF/36.

                                The two are not comparable. JV was never, ever, a foul machine like Poeltl was last year.
                                twitter.com/dhackett1565

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