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  • Demographic Shift wrote: View Post
    The most sanguine of measures of your value is what you get paid for what you do. Lets call it TE% (true earning percentage)
    Absolutely awful reasoning, sorry.

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    • retrofishy wrote: View Post
      Conclusion: Kyle need to feed JV the ball!
      Even if you give him 5 more touches a game, that's can get JV to 20 point land.
      One shot less from DD, Ibaka and KL and give it to JV.
      HOW MANY WAYS DO I HAVE TO SAY IT?!?!
      If it's 3 less shots for DeRozan, and Ibaka and KL keep theirs, even better.

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      • WJF wrote: View Post
        In a vacuum this makes sense. It will be interesting to see if the Raps change their offense for the 2017/18 season, what they have been doing has become stagnant. Does that mean include JV more, maybe, but something has to change.
        Masai's admittance of trying to trade JV in the off season should tell you all you need to know about his chances to be more involved in the offence.

        Change is happening. They are going to be forced (by design or not) to play their younger players with vets like 2Pat, Tucker, Carroll and Ross all gone. Whether that is the organization admitting they can't get any better than they are now, but want to be good while giving the youngsters a chance or they think an in season trade might be available, or just owners not wanting to lose out on profits is up to debate.

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        • Quirk wrote: View Post
          Absolutely awful reasoning, sorry.
          It's a simple and objective measure of determining player value as opposed to what ever set of contrived algorithms that has led you to the conclusion that a player such as PJ Tucker is an above average difference maker.

          If he was as impactful a player as you say...someone would pay him accordingly.

          No one did.

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          • Demographic Shift wrote: View Post
            It's a simple and objective measure of determining player value as opposed to what ever set of contrived algorithms that has led you to the conclusion that a player such as PJ Tucker is an above average difference maker.

            If he was as impactful a player as you say...someone would pay him accordingly.

            No one did.
            You can't really believe that NBA player contracts are good evaluators of NBA talent.

            I mean, PJ Tucker is a roughly average player, but not because of what he was paid. THJ is no better than him and just got a stupid contract from the Knicks, and Patterson is just as good and settled for 5M per.
            twitter.com/dhackett1565

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            • DanH wrote: View Post
              You can't really believe that NBA player contracts are good evaluators of NBA talent.

              I mean, PJ Tucker is a roughly average player, but not because of what he was paid. THJ is no better than him and just got a stupid contract from the Knicks, and Patterson is just as good and settled for 5M per.
              They're one of the best.

              Your example shows that Daryl Morey is a far better evaluator of the talent to value equation than the front office of the New York Knicks.

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              • Demographic Shift wrote: View Post
                They're one of the best.

                Your example shows that Daryl Morey is a far better evaluator of the talent to value equation than the front office of the New York Knicks.
                Oh, for sure. That's why it's a terrible measure of player value. The disparate GM capabilities completely skew the data.

                Which of these players are currently better than Kevin Durant? Paul Millsap, Gordon Hayward, Mike Conley, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, DeMar DeRozan, Al Horford, Carmelo Anthony, Damian Lillard, Chris Bosh...

                If your answer is anything other than zero, you are wrong. But if your answer is "all of them," then your salary evaluation method supports that argument.

                Did Steph Curry and Kyle Lowry suddenly become 2-3 times as good this summer as they were last season? Evaluating players on their contract values would suggest that they did.

                Every contract is a result of perception, GM skill, team needs, positional market, age market, general cap availability at time of signing, most recent player performance, injury risk, and actual player talent. To measure player talent using salary without considering all the other effects is much more foolhardy than using actual statistics, no matter what context-addition they may require.
                twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                • DanH wrote: View Post
                  Oh, for sure. That's why it's a terrible measure of player value. The disparate GM capabilities completely skew the data.

                  Which of these players are currently better than Kevin Durant? Paul Millsap, Gordon Hayward, Mike Conley, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, DeMar DeRozan, Al Horford, Carmelo Anthony, Damian Lillard, Chris Bosh...

                  If your answer is anything other than zero, you are wrong. But if your answer is "all of them," then your salary evaluation method supports that argument.

                  Did Steph Curry and Kyle Lowry suddenly become 2-3 times as good this summer as they were last season? Evaluating players on their contract values would suggest that they did.

                  Every contract is a result of perception, GM skill, team needs, positional market, age market, general cap availability at time of signing, most recent player performance, injury risk, and actual player talent. To measure player talent using salary without considering all the other effects is much more foolhardy than using actual statistics, no matter what context-addition they may require.
                  And in none of these players groupings would you expect to,see the name of PJ Tucker.
                  You might see Avery Bradley's though ..next year.

                  And that's the point...PJ isn't as As Mr Quirk believes...an impact player by any measure and that Bradley is not.

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                  • Demographic Shift wrote: View Post
                    They're one of the best.

                    Your example shows that Daryl Morey is a far better evaluator of the talent to value equation than the front office of the New York Knicks.
                    Or take a bit less to play on the team Morey built?

                    As Dan said, there are other factors. No state taxes in Texas/ Florida changes dynamics as well.
                    If we knew half as much about coaching an NBA team as we think, we"d know twice as much as we do.

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                    • Demographic Shift wrote: View Post
                      And in none of these players groupings would you expect to,see the name of PJ Tucker.
                      You might see Avery Bradley's though ..next year.

                      And that's the point...PJ isn't as As Mr Quirk believes...an impact player by any measure and that Bradley is not.
                      Come on, there is no chance Bradley is getting 25M+. He might end up with a 18-20M deal, in the range of such clearly above average players as Bismack Biyombo, Allen Crabbe, and Tim Hardaway Jr. If he's willing to sign with a terrible team, that is. PJ's age precluded any big interest from shitty teams.

                      I absolutely 100% agree with you that Tucker is roughly average and that Bradley is above average. I absolutely cannot accept that player salaries should be used as evaluators for the actual value of those players. NBA GMs are way too wrong, far too often, in both directions, for them to be of any value as a talent evaluator, even setting aside (as you absolutely should not) the other factors I brought up that determine player salary.
                      twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                      • 3inthekeon wrote: View Post
                        Or take a bit less to play on the team Morey built?

                        As Dan said, there are other factors. No state taxes in Texas/ Florida changes dynamics as well.
                        Its an advantage to be sure.... yet Cali and NY with some of the highest state taxes in the republic still attract players... and good ones at that....

                        All I am on is the notion that somehow PJ Tucker is an above league average impact player .... and that Avery Bradley is not.

                        I almost had a stroke supporting a Boston player ... but thats how far off this analytic assumption was.

                        And you know how I love anything Chowder...

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                        • Demographic Shift wrote: View Post
                          Its an advantage to be sure.... yet Cali and NY with some of the highest state taxes in the republic still attract players... and good ones at that....

                          All I am on is the notion that somehow PJ Tucker is an above league average impact player .... and that Avery Bradley is not.

                          I almost had a stroke supporting a Boston player ... but thats how far off this analytic assumption was.

                          And you know how I love anything Chowder...
                          The problem is not analytics, it's building the argument on a single (outlier) statistic. Most mainstream stats show that both players are roughly league average players.
                          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                          • DanH wrote: View Post
                            Come on, there is no chance Bradley is getting 25M+. He might end up with a 18-20M deal, in the range of such clearly above average players as Bismack Biyombo, Allen Crabbe, and Tim Hardaway Jr. If he's willing to sign with a terrible team, that is. PJ's age precluded any big interest from shitty teams.

                            I absolutely 100% agree with you that Tucker is roughly average and that Bradley is above average. I absolutely cannot accept that player salaries should be used as evaluators for the actual value of those players. NBA GMs are way too wrong, far too often, in both directions, for them to be of any value as a talent evaluator, even setting aside (as you absolutely should not) the other factors I brought up that determine player salary.
                            Sorry Dan.. you c'mon man

                            Bradley will be eligible to make, at max 30% of say 100M to 105M cap next year which is north of 30M$ ish.

                            So lets say he doesn't get the max. I'll be very conservative and say somewhat arbitrarily that he gets close to 75 or 80 percent of it.

                            His qualifications ?

                            A 26 year old ball handling wing.. who makes 40% of his 3's and plays all NBA defense. I'll take 2 please .as would most GM's in the league today.

                            I'd fire my agent if I got 80% of the max with those credentials.... which is 25m$
                            Last edited by Demographic Shift; Wed Jul 26, 2017, 03:36 PM.

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                            • As a friendly reminder, this is the Valanciunas thread. I would be happy to move the posts related to Tucker and salary valuation to a new thread, should you want to continue the discussion.

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                              • DanH wrote: View Post
                                The problem is not analytics, it's building the argument on a single (outlier) statistic. Most mainstream stats show that both players are roughly league average players.
                                which is why analytics and machine based learning usually augment human decisions... not determines them.

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