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  • Scraptor wrote: View Post
    I'm optimistic for JV but teams really do target him in the pick and roll. If his defense doesn't improve I don't know that he'll get that much more run this year, especially because we have such a full rotation.

    I could see something like this:

    Guards
    Kyle 32 / FVV 20 / Green 24 / Delon 20

    Forwards + center
    Kawhi 32 / OG 24 / Pascal 24 / Serge 24/ JV 24 / CJ 16

    With Norm getting spot minutes replacing CJ/Green or injured players.
    I don't trust Siakam at the 5 unless its for specific match ups.. and JV is our best rebounder. Plus Nurse really likes JV. Just feels like he's going to play a lot more than he has under Casey.

    I thought JV did a solid job on the PnR last year. He seems a lot more mobile and less flat footed.. plus he hangs back in the paint a bit waiting for the roll man to come through or the handler to get by a screen. At worst they give up a mid range shot. But with our perimeter defenders being so good.. I could see us doing well there.

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    • Scraptor wrote: View Post
      I'm optimistic for JV but teams really do target him in the pick and roll. If his defense doesn't improve I don't know that he'll get that much more run this year, especially because we have such a full rotation.

      I could see something like this:

      Guards
      Kyle 32 / FVV 20 / Green 24 / Delon 20

      Forwards + center
      Kawhi 32 / OG 24 / Pascal 24 / Serge 24/ JV 24 / CJ 16

      With Norm getting spot minutes replacing CJ/Green or injured players.
      I think he'll get more than 24 mpg.

      His p'n'r D was a lot better last year where they had him hanging back and he got better at reading situations. We can't forget part of the way this worked was that teams would often try to get DeMar/JV in the p'n'r defence, and DeMar isn't there anymore. That will make JV's life easier. DeMar was just such a bad defender. He would just give up on plays sometimes when getting screened. He would ignore/not realize it when they called to ice a p'n'r. These issues will be lessened.

      If JV's p'n'r D was good enough to get us wins against teams like Houston and the playoff series against the Wiz (if Wall shoots his average from midrange instead of some crazy number that is totally out of character, we probably win that series in 4-5 even with Casey's awful coaching), I'm confident with better perimeter D it generally won't be an issue.

      I hope to see JV average around 28+ minutes. Serge will get some C minutes. Siakam really should only get them if the other team has no big whatsoever on the court. Maybe we add another guy who can play 10-15 mpg at C, depending on free agent and trade options.

      We are just not better with other guys at C. And we would be too small if we play without JV on the court for half the game.

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      • white men can't jump wrote: View Post
        4-5 is probably too many for an average.

        I'm hoping for 2+ attempts. Maybe closer to 3 if he's doing really well.

        To put another way, last year he averaged 8.9 FGA/game with just 1 of those coming from deep. How many more shots will he actually get under Nurse? His minutes and role will increase, but he's still not a primary option. Probably put up something in the low teens for FGAs, in the ballpark between maybe 12-14 FGA/game (?). Do you want all of those extra shots coming from long range?
        yeah 5 is a stretch. On several occasions last year, he would barely play in the second half, but would take two from deep when teams were ignoring him. With more time on the court, I can see that getting up to 3, and if he's made 2 out of those...but yeah on average it will probably stay close to 2.5 to 3. I can see Nurse being more adaptable with him, with some games him taking more, and some none at all.

        What I'm most interested on is not so much the actual attempts/production there (that's far from his bread & butter), but him becoming a guy defences can't just ignore from deep. At the beginning of last year, defences would flat out ignore him there, but then towards the end of the year, we started to see defenders (often the opposing big) run to close him out, which yielded some nice open drives & dunks.

        If he can pull the opposing rim protector from the paint to the perimeter, that opens a lot of opportunities for our wings to feast inside. Even if he only actually hoists 0-1 shots from deep but is actually harnessing that kind of scouting respect, that can open up our offence a lot. Hard to predict that with a new coach, but I feel we'll see more effective plays around JV.
        2019 NBA Champions. Glad to have doubted the doubters.

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          • Well, we can still sign him. We have his full Bird Rights. All the qualifying offer does is stop other teams from signing him away - and no one has exactly done that yet anyway.
            twitter.com/dhackett1565

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            • Ok thanks dan. I hope we hold on to him i like his shot altering presence esp behind jv and Im really curious to see him with nurse.

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                • Remember how everyone kept saying we should make small ball teams pay by posting JV up every time? Yes, stupid at the time, but now that we can defend the perimeter is it a much more viable option on offence against a team like GS?

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                  • LJ2 wrote: View Post
                    Remember how everyone kept saying we should make small ball teams pay by posting JV up every time? Yes, stupid at the time, but now that we can defend the perimeter is it a much more viable option on offence against a team like GS?
                    At the very least, even if we don't just straight up post him on a guy like Draymond, his inclusion as a screen setter can make the Raptors switch-proof. So if the defence is switching screens, you run one to get Curry guarding Kawhi or JV, then run a post action and punish that.
                    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                    • DanH wrote: View Post
                      At the very least, even if we don't just straight up post him on a guy like Draymond, his inclusion as a screen setter can make the Raptors switch-proof. So if the defence is switching screens, you run one to get Curry guarding Kawhi or JV, then run a post action and punish that.
                      Exciting times ahead. This roster has potential to be the answer to the GSW small ball problem.

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                      • LJ2 wrote: View Post
                        Remember how everyone kept saying we should make small ball teams pay by posting JV up every time? Yes, stupid at the time, but now that we can defend the perimeter is it a much more viable option on offence against a team like GS?
                        Depends, it does make it easier. With JV out there you lose the switchability on defense which is kind of the point. You could play a scheme though where you switch everything except you don't switch when JV's man is involved in the pick and roll. As long as the guy guarding Steph or KD or whoever can get over his screen consistently that should work well, but it will likely lead to them getting quite a few uncontested or poorly contested threes off screens.

                        The reality is to defend that lineup best, JV should be off the floor with Siakam in at the 5. There is somewhat of an advantage in having him there to post-up, but it's not that huge because a post-up in and of itself isn't exactly a hyper-efficient play.

                        Where JV can keep himself on the floor despite the defensive problems is by dominating the offensive glass. That's what Steven Adams did in the 2016 playoffs. If he's giving the team 2nd or even 3rd chances consistently, then it actually becomes a positive to have him out there instead of a negative.

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                        • Shaolin Fantastic wrote: View Post
                          ... but it's not that huge because a post-up in and of itself isn't exactly a hyper-efficient play...
                          Unless it's being run by a hyper-efficient post up artist like JV. 1.09 points per possession in 159 opportunities... second only to Tan Gibson among players with more than 50 attempts. https://www.raptorshq.com/2018/5/18/...as-valanciunas

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                          • Don't wanna sound prematurely too excited, we gotta get out of the East first which is not a given, but I can see this team being a bit of a matchup problem for Golden State, if our pieces are utilized properly.

                            GSW thrives on an a perimeter game that relies heavily on Curry's off ball gravity, and the Curry/Durant pick and roll, which is very difficult to defend. However, I think this year we have the pieces and the switchabilty to control that better. And if they tried to balance things out more with a higher Cousins usage, we got JV that has typically done very well against him.

                            I've never been too high or too low on JV, but I gotta say, with Poeltl gone, plus the willingness/ability of Nurse to utilize him better, and also the fact he won't be burned so much on the D because of better perimeter defence, he's looking more and more like a key piece for us.
                            2019 NBA Champions. Glad to have doubted the doubters.

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                            • The discussion over in the starting lineup thread has been a lot of fun and interesting as hell. It got me wondering about JV. My impressions from last year were that he holds his own and is capable of dominating in some matchups. So I went Googling.

                              JV ranks, based on last years numbers, anywhere from 15th to 20th out of centers for last season. I was surprised. I would have thought somewhere from 10th to 15th.

                              I wonder if the new starting five affect his ranking. If he spends time with the bench unit, will it affect his ranking? I'm not obsessed with his position among the leagues centers. But I do wonder if things change this year. I never liked how Casey used JV. It will be interesting to see what changes occur with Nurse, Kawhi and an older OG, not to mention Danny Green onboard.

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                              • Puffer wrote: View Post
                                The discussion over in the starting lineup thread has been a lot of fun and interesting as hell. It got me wondering about JV. My impressions from last year were that he holds his own and is capable of dominating in some matchups. So I went Googling.

                                JV ranks, based on last years numbers, anywhere from 15th to 20th out of centers for last season. I was surprised. I would have thought somewhere from 10th to 15th.

                                I wonder if the new starting five affect his ranking. If he spends time with the bench unit, will it affect his ranking? I'm not obsessed with his position among the leagues centers. But I do wonder if things change this year. I never liked how Casey used JV. It will be interesting to see what changes occur with Nurse, Kawhi and an older OG, not to mention Danny Green onboard.
                                I'm not sure which numbers you looked at, and JV played 1700 minutes last year, vs., for instance Karl-Anthony Town's 2900 or Nikola Jokic's 2400. If you look at total rebounds K-A and Jokic look better because JV spent so much time on the bench. If you look per 48 minutes played, JV had 18.3 rebounds vs. K-A's 16.6 rebounds and Jokic's 15.8.

                                WP48 does indeed rank JV 11th, right in the range you expected, right between K-A and Jokic.

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