Everything Valanciunas

[white men can't jump]

The discussion over in the starting lineup thread has been a lot of fun and interesting as hell. It got me wondering about JV. My impressions from last year were that he holds his own and is capable of dominating in some matchups. So I went Googling.

JV ranks, based on last years numbers, anywhere from 15th to 20th out of centers for last season. I was surprised. I would have thought somewhere from 10th to 15th.

I wonder if the new starting five affect his ranking. If he spends time with the bench unit, will it affect his ranking? I'm not obsessed with his position among the leagues centers. But I do wonder if things change this year. I never liked how Casey used JV. It will be interesting to see what changes occur with Nurse, Kawhi and an older OG, not to mention Danny Green onboard.

If JV can continue off his strong season last year and Nurse gives him more opportunity, I suspect the numbers will be kinder to him. I don't know what you were looking at, but he does tend to rank pretty highly in a lot of numbers as well.

JV just needs to continue the trajectory he was on last year. Keep working on that shot so he can up his volume from deep. Keep working on his mobility and D, which got noticeably better as the season went on (along with his entire game). Even his playmaking showed nice signs last year and he might be able to grow a bit as a passer. Basically showed good signs in his weaknesses.

[Puffer]

If JV can continue off his strong season last year and Nurse gives him more opportunity, I suspect the numbers will be kinder to him. I don't know what you were looking at, but he does tend to rank pretty highly in a lot of numbers as well.

JV just needs to continue the trajectory he was on last year. Keep working on that shot so he can up his volume from deep. Keep working on his mobility and D, which got noticeably better as the season went on (along with his entire game). Even hiplaymaking showed nice signs last year and he might be able to grow a bit as a passer. Basically showed good signs in his weaknesses.

I just did a Google search for something like "ranking NBA centers 2017 - 2018." Glad my eye test matches other metrics. So you can add JV to the "top ten" point guard, "top five" shooting guard or small forward, however you want to designate Kawhi.

Raptors starting five looking good.

[KeonClark]

I just did a Google search for something like "ranking NBA centers 2017 - 2018." Glad my eye test matches other metrics. So you can add JV to the "top ten" point guard, "top five" shooting guard or small forward, however you want to designate Kawhi.

Raptors starting five looking good.

Kawhi doesn't have an Apex #2 or #3 option. Out strength is our best player (if engaged), and our depth. Hopefully we see a leap from 2 out of 3 of JV, siakam and og because as great as Lowry is, hes more an Apex #3 option at this point like a point Draymond almost. We need help at the top still to really talk rings

[white men can't jump]

Kawhi doesn't have an Apex #2 or #3 option. Out strength is our best player (if engaged), and our depth. Hopefully we see a leap from 2 out of 3 of JV, siakam and og because as great as Lowry is, hes more an Apex #3 option at this point like a point Draymond almost. We need help at the top still to really talk rings

I think you're undervaluing Lowry, at least for the next year or two. He is exactly at the point in his career where being a #2 guy makes sense, as long as he doesn't show much dropoff in that span. His problem is that he can't be the best player on a contender (and neither could DeMar), but now we have someone who can. Lowry also seems like a near perfect fit next to Kawhi both in tangible and intangible attributes.

I'm ok if JV is never better than a #3 guy. I do think he'll still show some growth in his game though, even if his production doesn't take a big leap. His production was already great, just limited by minutes. If he can improve his range, p'n'r D and passing, he's a great/steady #3 with few holes in his game (he'll never be great guarding in space, but his D showed nice strides last year and he was reading the p'n'r pretty well when he got to sag back). If he makes major strides in a couple of those areas, maybe he can be a #2 guy. Minor strides and he just cements himself as that solid #3. I'm a pretty big JV fan and even I always thought his ceiling was #3 guy on a contender with a pretty slim chance at #2.

OG and Siakam are wildcards, high potential but still pretty far from reaching it. Both have great physical tools and strong intangibles. Anyway, it's unlikely we see that massive a leap in either one next year. Maybe in a year or two. Kawhi is a guy OG often got compared to coming out, and it took Kawhi until years 4 and 5 to make big leaps offensively.

It would be great to already have a young stud who obviously will be a star for years to come, but a run to the Finals may be enough to convince Kawhi to stay, and that buys Masai time to see if we can develop (if it might be OG or Siakam) or trade for such a guy.

[Scraptor]

I'm not sure which numbers you looked at, and JV played 1700 minutes last year, vs., for instance Karl-Anthony Town's 2900 or Nikola Jokic's 2400. If you look at total rebounds K-A and Jokic look better because JV spent so much time on the bench. If you look per 48 minutes played, JV had 18.3 rebounds vs. K-A's 16.6 rebounds and Jokic's 15.8.

WP48 does indeed rank JV 11th, right in the range you expected, right between K-A and Jokic.

WP48 also has JV above Anthony Davis, so maybe not a great indicator of anything.

JV is probably around 10th-15th anyways. He's behind guys like
Embiid
Jokic
KAT
Capela
Gobert
Cousins (if he can get healthy)
Horford

Then he starts getting in the mix depending on what you want out of a centre. Jordan/Drummond/Whiteside/Howard all rank as superior athletically. Steven Adams and Marc Gasol are better defenders. Myles Turner could potentially pass him and we'll have to see about guys like Ayton, JJJ, and Bamba.

[white men can't jump]

WP48 also has JV above Anthony Davis, so maybe not a great indicator of anything.

JV is probably around 10th-15th anyways. He's behind guys like
Embiid
Jokic
KAT
Capela
Gobert
Cousins (if he can get healthy)
Horford

Then he starts getting in the mix depending on what you want out of a centre. Jordan/Drummond/Whiteside/Howard all rank as superior athletically. Steven Adams and Marc Gasol are better defenders. Myles Turner could potentially pass him and we'll have to see about guys like Ayton, JJJ, and Bamba.

I wouldn't put Capela that high, as he is getting very overrated because of Houston's success right now. He is a pretty limited player.

Tier 1 is (in terms of talent):
Embiid
Davis
Towns
Cousins (but I frankly dislike Cousins game/personality and wouldn't want him on my team)
Jokic (who has his own defensive issues but can be your offensive cornerstone)

Then it's kind of a mess. Gobert is great defensively, but limited offensively and physically soft. Adams is a beast but JV gives you more on offence. All those superior athletes, including Capela, are very overrated. I don't think you can say that Gasol is better defensively anymore. Turner needs to show he can make another leap because he's kind of stagnated and I would have him behind JV. It's hard to still count Horford as a C since Boston starts Baynes a lot and limits how much Horford has to play bigger guys.

I think I would have JV in the 5-10 range, even if it's closer to 10.

[Scraptor]

I wouldn't put Capela that high, as he is getting very overrated because of Houston's success right now. He is a pretty limited player.

Tier 1 is (in terms of talent):
Embiid
Davis
Towns
Cousins (but I frankly dislike Cousins game/personality and wouldn't want him on my team)
Jokic (who has his own defensive issues but can be your offensive cornerstone)

Then it's kind of a mess. Gobert is great defensively, but limited offensively and physically soft. Adams is a beast but JV gives you more on offence. All those superior athletes, including Capela, are very overrated. I don't think you can say that Gasol is better defensively anymore. Turner needs to show he can make another leap because he's kind of stagnated and I would have him behind JV. It's hard to still count Horford as a C since Boston starts Baynes a lot and limits how much Horford has to play bigger guys.

I think I would have JV in the 5-10 range, even if it's closer to 10.

It's going to be an interesting test case for JV for sure. If Nurse can put him in a position to succeed and he really works on D I think he can rise to that top 6-7 area. Because like you noted, all those other guys have flaws.

My feeling right now is that if other teams keep targeting JV aggressively it may be tough for Nurse to keep him on the floor. If that persists I think you have to slot JV behind the more mobile guys.

But we'll see. I would love nothing more than for JV to rock out and become an all star. I sponsored his bbref page his first couple years... It would be sweet validation.

[white men can't jump]

It's going to be an interesting test case for JV for sure. If Nurse can put him in a position to succeed and he really works on D I think he can rise to that top 6-7 area. Because like you noted, all those other guys have flaws.

My feeling right now is that if other teams keep targeting JV aggressively it may be tough for Nurse to keep him on the floor. If that persists I think you have to slot JV behind the more mobile guys.

But we'll see. I would love nothing more than for JV to rock out and become an all star. I sponsored his bbref page his first couple years... It would be sweet validation.

The thing about the mobile guys is that they don't give a significant advantage against small units. Capela was not a big factor against GSW. And guys like Drummond or Whiteside are not really better in space. They are mobile for bigs but still slow compared to perimeter players. Poeltl is quick footed and a good defender, and we've seen him fall on his ass getting crossed over by Dwight Howard. Davis is probably the best all around defender. Even Gobert is bad in space and he stays in the paint as much as possible.

Basically I think you end up not getting an advantage with those kinds of mobile guys if they can't also play big and show more skills than just finishing at the rim on offence. If you want to match small, you need the versatile small guys. That's why the development of Siakam and OG is a big point of interest.

If you want to beat GSW, you need the be able to either punish them with size (though now they have Cousins) or match up small, or both. Bigs who give you something in between end up failing to tip the scales in your favour in either direction. If you have a big who can play big on both ends and shoot the ball, and enough small ball depth to match up that way if your want/need to, you give yourself a chance.

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[DogeLover1234]

The thing about the mobile guys is that they don't give a significant advantage against small units. Capela was not a big factor against GSW. And guys like Drummond or Whiteside are not really better in space. They are mobile for bigs but still slow compared to perimeter players. Poeltl is quick footed and a good defender, and we've seen him fall on his ass getting crossed over by Dwight Howard. Davis is probably the best all around defender. Even Gobert is bad in space and he stays in the paint as much as possible.

Basically I think you end up not getting an advantage with those kinds of mobile guys if they can't also play big and show more skills than just finishing at the rim on offence. If you want to match small, you need the versatile small guys. That's why the development of Siakam and OG is a big point of interest.

If you want to beat GSW, you need the be able to either punish them with size (though now they have Cousins) or match up small, or both. Bigs who give you something in between end up failing to tip the scales in your favour in either direction. If you have a big who can play big on both ends and shoot the ball, and enough small ball depth to match up that way if your want/need to, you give yourself a chance.

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Eh Capela struggled some against golden state, but he was getting a ton of easy buckets and helped the Rockets a ton on the oboards, which was a huge part of their gameplan.

[GOLDBLUM]

Jonas is on the verge of something special...

[GOLDBLUM]

[Shaolin Fantastic]

The thing about the mobile guys is that they don't give a significant advantage against small units. Capela was not a big factor against GSW. And guys like Drummond or Whiteside are not really better in space. They are mobile for bigs but still slow compared to perimeter players. Poeltl is quick footed and a good defender, and we've seen him fall on his ass getting crossed over by Dwight Howard. Davis is probably the best all around defender. Even Gobert is bad in space and he stays in the paint as much as possible.

Basically I think you end up not getting an advantage with those kinds of mobile guys if they can't also play big and show more skills than just finishing at the rim on offence. If you want to match small, you need the versatile small guys. That's why the development of Siakam and OG is a big point of interest.

If you want to beat GSW, you need the be able to either punish them with size (though now they have Cousins) or match up small, or both. Bigs who give you something in between end up failing to tip the scales in your favour in either direction. If you have a big who can play big on both ends and shoot the ball, and enough small ball depth to match up that way if your want/need to, you give yourself a chance.

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Sorry, what?

Why have you included Capela in there? He's even more efficient than JV at similar usage while playing more minutes. Way better on the defensive end, and arguably a better rebounder (had a better REB% last season). Not to mention being a lot more mobile. He's a much better and more dangerous option against GS than Valanciunas is and a lot less of a liability.

[KHD]

Sorry, what?

Why have you included Capela in there? He's even more efficient than JV at similar usage while playing more minutes. Way better on the defensive end, and arguably a better rebounder (had a better REB% last season). Not to mention being a lot more mobile. He's a much better and more dangerous option against GS than Valanciunas is and a lot less of a liability.

in their playoff series golden state took away capela's only method of being utilized on offence (lob pass/pnr). he had a 14% usage rate in the series.

Capela last season was assisted on 82% of his field goals, and over 80% of his shot attempts were within 3 feet. For comparison valanciunas got assisted on 64% of his FGs and took 44% of his shots from within 3 feet, 33% between 3-10 feet.

For more detail you can look at their shot type stats on NBA.com.

Defence obviously goes in capela's favour, but you are making a point about offensive efficiency when comparing a player who can't create his own shot to a player who can, it's not telling the whole story.

[G__Deane]

One thing we should agree on is JV will be given a better opportunity for growth under Nurse than his misuse under Casey., I bet he's lovin' it ....

[LJ2]

One thing we should agree on is JV will be given a better opportunity for growth under Nurse than his misuse under Casey., I bet he's lovin' it ....

What sort of growth are you referring to or hoping for? It's not like he wasn't a key member of a really good team for the last 5+ years.

The fact remains this is a very guard/wing dominant team and even more so now than when DeMar and Casey were here. Maybe Nurse makes more of an effort to distribute usage among the players, but I'm not banking on that until I see it and it looks like it's working.