Everything Valanciunas

[Shaolin Fantastic]

I think I missed the part where Dan suggested "building an offense around JV." Maybe you meant to say "incorporating him effectively in the offense."

There's an argument to be made there, specifically in terms of efficiency. But even with that, the real difference is playmaking. JV hasn't been given any real chance to show he can pass well enough to run the offence through, but early in DeMar's career he was an awful playmaker considering his usage and the system, so there was upside to JV that DeMar hadn't shown yet. DeMar's improvement by leaps and bounds in that area has really changed the discussion - JV has been plenty productive in his role and should stay in it, now that DeMar has established his playmaking to a much more acceptable level than before.

Playmaking remains the area I hope to see the most improvement from DeMar in, but he's nothing like he was early in his career in that regard, and the upside of JV in that area is far less enticing with DeMar having proven he can run the offence.

That said, of course the team should still look to add variety to the offence in general and in specific play actions (specifically using the roll man more often, as a scorer or intermediary) to help prevent the playoff collapses we've seen. But the idea of centering an offence on JV should definitely be dead for this three year window at least.

Yeah, you did miss it, and no I said exactly what I meant and was responding to.

Centering an offense around JV is a terrible fucking idea for any team that has intentions of winning games.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

Initiating an offense out of spread pick & roll and then running options out of the initial action aren't really comparable to the point of saying, hey we are running the same offense as so & so, IMO.

I didn't say we're running the same offense as other teams in the league. I said the way we're using DeRozan isn't drastically different from how other teams are using lead guards who are good slashers and playmakers for themselves or others off the dribble. Tons and tons of pick and roll ball handler possessions and a lot of drives to the basket. Not sure why he's trying to act like the way we use DeMar is reinventing the wheel in order to justify some radical change to a JV-centered offense in a few years. JV is not good enough to center an offense around.

I hate to bring Kyrie up again, but it amazes me that DanH thinks it's a terrible idea for a team to make Kyrie the focal point in their offense, but doing the same with Valanciunas is a good one. We are talking about gulfs in offensive capability here.

[DanH]

Neither of us has any clue what other teams offered. Young, yet proven, elite rebounding and scoring big men on team friendly contracts are extremely valuable assets, this is not a question. We have no other simular assets, Lowry is not young, DeRozan is not on a team-friendly contract, Poeltl is not proven.

Carroll was neither young nor productive, and not on a team-friendly contract. There is no comparison.

JV is our most valuable trade asset. SInce we're locked in to the Lowry/DeRozan/Casey era, which likely means 50 wins and a second round exit, and could be achieved without JV, there is a logic to trading him in order to build for the post-Lowry era.

So, is JV, currently, more valuable as a trade asset than an on-court asset to this team at this time?

Dude, I'm one of the people who most values JV on this team and his contributions on the court, and it's even obvious to me that the trade market for big men is dead, completely dead. There's no way the Raptors would get fair trade value moving JV, it's a big reason (along with his contributions to very successful lineups here) why they should not be looking to trade him.

[DanH]

I didn't say we're running the same offense as other teams in the league. I said the way we're using DeRozan isn't drastically different from how other teams are using lead guards who are good slashers and playmakers for themselves or others off the dribble. Tons and tons of pick and roll ball handler possessions and a lot of drives to the basket. Not sure why he's trying to act like the way we use DeMar is reinventing the wheel in order to justify some radical change to a JV-centered offense in a few years. JV is not good enough to center an offense around.

I hate to bring Kyrie up again, but it amazes me that DanH thinks it's a terrible idea for a team to make Kyrie the focal point in their offense, but doing the same with Valanciunas is a good one. We are talking about gulfs in offensive capability here.

When did I ever say it was a bad idea to make Kyrie the focal point of a offence?

[Shaolin Fantastic]

When did I ever say it was a bad idea to make Kyrie the focal point of a offence?

There was a debate in the offseason thread over KeonClark's comment that Kyrie contributes to losing than winning. I argued against that and then you made several points in favor of the claim. If a player contributes more to losing than winning, it follows that centering your team around them is probably not a good idea. So yes, you have made that argument.

[DanH]

There was a debate in the offseason thread over KeonClark's comment that Kyrie contributes to losing than winning. I argued against that and then you made several points in favor of the claim. If a player contributes more to losing than winning, it follows that centering your team around them is probably not a good idea, no?

Building an offence around a player (like we do with DeMar) and building a team around a player (like we do with Lowry) are two very different things.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

Building an offence around a player (like we do with DeMar) and building a team around a player (like we do with Lowry) are two very different things.

Well it's building the offence around with Kyrie which you still suggested is a bad idea, considering they have other players (Horford, Hayward) who perform better in impact stats.

Do you seriously think that building an offence around Valanciunas is a good idea?

[DanH]

Well it's building the offence around with Kyrie which you still suggested is a bad idea, considering they have other players (Horford, Hayward) who perform better in impact stats.

Do you seriously think that building an offence around Valanciunas is a good idea?

Again, please find me a place where I said building an offence around Kyrie is a bad idea.

I don't think building an offence around Valanciunas is a good idea with the options we have. That's what I've been saying. A few years ago, when DD was looking pretty useless, it was an idea worth pursuing (running offence through JV and Lowry). Similarly, depending on what talent is on the team when the window closes, an offence centered around JV-Wright PnR with heavy roll man looks could be pretty good compared to the alternatives. Not definitively, but if DeMar and Lowry are both gone, JV is certainly a more viable candidate to centre the offence on than any of the other young guys, as it stands today.

[DanH]

Also, Irving had a higher RPM than Horford did last year.

My concern with Irving was slightly different in the two discussions around him. In the idea of Lowry for Irving, my concern was that Irving's greatest value is in the DeRozan role - lead heavy usage scorer, where his teammates can bring star-level impact. Him playing beside DeRozan seems to take both players out of their most effective role and leave the team without that backbone that leads to real success.

In the BOS discussion, my concern was that BOS doesn't really have a star level player (Hayward is closest, and his impact stats are like half of what Lowry's have been the last couple seasons), so blowing their assets on a lead scorer (especially a lead scorer who may or may not be a significant upgrade on the lead scorer they traded away in the deal) when they still lack that true star (and when they passed on guys like George and especially Butler earlier in the summer), seems like a bad move.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

Again, please find me a place where I said building an offence around Kyrie is a bad idea.

I don't think building an offence around Valanciunas is a good idea with the options we have. That's what I've been saying. A few years ago, when DD was looking pretty useless, it was an idea worth pursuing (running offence through JV and Lowry). Similarly, depending on what talent is on the team when the window closes, an offence centered around JV-Wright PnR with heavy roll man looks could be pretty good compared to the alternatives. Not definitively, but if DeMar and Lowry are both gone, JV is certainly a more viable candidate to centre the offence on than any of the other young guys, as it stands today.

When was this? Lowry wasn't that good in JV's rookie season so it couldn't have been then. Or are you talking about 14-15 when DeMar had just had the best season of his career the year before and had a dip?

For your second point, what would be the intention of this? A tanking effort post DeMar-Kyle-Ibaka, or to actually win. If it's the former, it'd be better to trade JV (who will be 28 in 3 years, so will Wright for that matter) for what we can get in terms of picks or prospects if he's magically still here, and actually completely bottom out for a high draft pick to get REAL elite talent in. If it's the latter, well it's not going to work. A team centered around JV is not a team that is going to win many games or probably even make the playoffs. So I don't see any scenario where that's a good idea. I do not want to be in 7-11 no man's land.

[DanH]

When was this? Lowry wasn't that good in JV's rookie season so it couldn't have been then. Or are you talking about 14-15 when DeMar had just had the best season of his career the year before and had a dip?

For your second point, what would be the intention of this? A tanking effort post DeMar-Kyle-Ibaka, or to actually win. If it's the former, it'd be better to trade JV (who will be 28 in 3 years, so will Wright for that matter) for what we can get in terms of picks or prospects if he's magically still here, and actually completely bottom out for a high draft pick to get REAL elite talent in. If it's the latter, well it's not going to work. A team centered around JV is not a team that is going to win many games or probably even make the playoffs. So I don't see any scenario where that's a good idea. I do not want to be in 7-11 no man's land.

Strategy within the offence is totally separate from top level team tear down decisions. Obviously if they are tanking, JV won't be on the team. Heck, I think they should tank at that point. I'm not advocating for doing this - I literally only said that they definitely shouldn't centre an offence around him during this window, and that any discussion about that should be limited to after the window.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

Strategy within the offence is totally separate from top level team tear down decisions. Obviously if they are tanking, JV won't be on the team. Heck, I think they should tank at that point. I'm not advocating for doing this - I literally only said that they definitely shouldn't centre an offence around him during this window, and that any discussion about that should be limited to after the window.

All I'm saying is we're headed the wrong direction if that's happening at any point. He's not good enough to actually have a good team centered around him, but he is good to the point that it might fuck up a tank with extra unnecessary wins or take away time from younger players who need development.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

It's actually shocking how much taking JV out of the starting lineup improved us in the playoffs.

In 44 minutes with our regular starting lineup of Lowry-DD-Carroll-Ibaka-JV we were -24.7 netRTG with 105.6 oRTG and a putrid 130.3 dRTG. In about the same minutes (43) in the JV to the bench starting lineup of Lowry-DD-Powell-Carroll-Ibaka we got slightly better on offense (110.0 oRTG), way better on defense (92.6 dRTG) and way better overall +17.4 netRTG.

Meanwhile, the idea that we would get killed on the glass didn't happen. We were worse on the offensive glass which is expected but shot 5% better in TS% to compensate, and we were better on the defensive glass and rebounding overall.

Small sample size but it's also the ONLY sample we have of the new team with Lowry really and against tough competition in a playoff setting.

[Chr1s1anL]

It's actually shocking how much taking JV out of the starting lineup improved us in the playoffs.

In 44 minutes with our regular starting lineup of Lowry-DD-Carroll-Ibaka-JV we were -24.7 netRTG with 105.6 oRTG and a putrid 130.3 dRTG. In about the same minutes (43) in the JV to the bench starting lineup of Lowry-DD-Powell-Carroll-Ibaka we got slightly better on offense (110.0 oRTG), way better on defense (92.6 dRTG) and way better overall +17.4 netRTG.

Meanwhile, the idea that we would get killed on the glass didn't happen. We were worse on the offensive glass which is expected but shot 5% better in TS% to compensate, and we were better on the defensive glass and rebounding overall.

Small sample size but it's also the ONLY sample we have of the new team with Lowry really and against tough competition in a playoff setting.

This is why I want Ibaka to play Center. Just replace Carroll with Siakam. You have a fast/switchy starting line up.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

This is why I want Ibaka to play Center. Just replace Carroll with Siakam. You have a fast/switchy starting line up.

Except Siakam can't fucking shoot. (As of last year anyway, if he can now that changes things).

This is why I'm so pissed about this summer we don't even have any damn options. We don't have a single reliable player at the 3/4 spot who can defend and shoot. The closest thing we have to that is Miles and he's 6'6 and not actually good defensively.

EDIT: Sorry overreacted a bit. Siakam actually could work on the defensive end though, it's just offensively I think the spacing would be really poor, which would probably somewhat offset the boon we get on defense. It's not a bad idea just not ideal.