Everything Valanciunas

[The Great One]

Jack Armstong made a great point last night about JV. Forget about offense and all that stuff. Just rebound the ball, play w/ energy. The offense will come.

Last night i thought was JV's best game in a loooooooooooooong time.

[mcHAPPY]

Jack Armstong made a great point last night about JV. Forget about offense and all that stuff. Just rebound the ball, play w/ energy. The offense will come.

Last night i thought was JV's best game in a loooooooooooooong time.

Why?

He walked around like he had the biggest penis on the court.

CONFIDENCE & SWAGGER

[rocwell]

This is a joke, right?

I don't think so. This is a quote from Wolstat's article.

[JimiCliff]

I don't think so. This is a quote from Wolstat's article.

Jesus. Why don't they just make him wear a dunce cap every time he misses a rotation.

[white men can't jump]

Jesus. Why don't they just make him wear a dunce cap every time he misses a rotation.

Meh, I think it's just cuz he's been slumping, and part of that is clearly him starting to overthink and play nervous. While it seems like almost childish handling, it's also just a simple tool so that every time he goes to get ready before a game, especially as he has struggled recently, he doesn't think about too much and just remembers the few things he really needs to focus on.

I mean, last night it seemed to help. He was not just aggressive, but less indecisive, including on O. He shot 3-8, but they were pretty much all good shots taken without hesitation. And on the glass/D, he was fantastic.

*You don't want him thinking about his mistakes, or his touches or minutes. You want him thinking about what he needs to do not just to stay on the court, but mostly to help the team win. Increased confidence, and possibly playing time, will help fix the rest...less mistakes, better decisions (and touches on O), more minutes....

[Superjudge]

Why?

He walked around like he had the biggest penis on the court.

CONFIDENCE & SWAGGER

He might, i saw it, its bog.

hahaha

No really, I did, I pissed with him one day.

[Superjudge]

Jesus. Why don't they just make him wear a dunce cap every time he misses a rotation.

jimi, he put the sign up. Not the coaches. He's taking steps to simplify, and foucus upon what his main goals are rright now, and what he is being asked to do.

Thats called awesome.

I'm feeling JV today after reading that...good for him.

[stooley]

Development aside:

Jonas has by far the worst net on-off rating on the entire team. 6.5 points worse than the next worst starter. That's why he doesn't see as many minutes as everyone here is desperate for.

When he plays well, he plays more.

The reason the raps are 15-8 when he plays 30+ minutes is because he's our only true center. When he's not playing well, we have nobody.

[white men can't jump]

Development aside:

Jonas has by far the worst net on-off rating on the entire team. 6.5 points worse than the next worst starter. That's why he doesn't see as many minutes as everyone here is desperate for.

When he plays well, he plays more.

The reason the raps are 15-8 when he plays 30+ minutes is because he's our only true center. When he's not playing well, we have nobody.

But he doesn't always play more. That's the issue. That's what can really make things bad for development. Play bad and you're benched...fine, no problem. Play well and you're still benched...wait, what?

He's also still a very slight net positive on the court. So it's not like he's constantly killing our team out there all the time.

[stooley]

But he doesn't always play more. That's the issue. That's what can really make things bad for development. Play bad and you're benched...fine, no problem. Play well and you're still benched...wait, what?

He's also still a very slight net positive on the court. So it's not like he's constantly killing our team out there all the time.

I agree when that happens, it's kinda crazy.

I have no problem with giving Jonas more minutes to develop, I think it's worth it long term.

I haven't had wifi the past few days, but I was reading a few pages back and people are going on and on about how it's crazy Casey doesn't play him more, he's a force on both ends, etc.

The raptors are 6.9 points per 100 possessions worse with Jonas on the court.

That's not a fluke. That may overstate the issue, but the raptors going big doesn't help them win.

The debate should be: why is Casey emphasizing wins this season over developing a potential franchise centre?

Not: OMG, Jonas is amazing, how does he not play more, Casey is a dumbass.

[white men can't jump]

I agree when that happens, it's kinda crazy.

I have no problem with giving Jonas more minutes to develop, I think it's worth it long term.

I haven't had wifi the past few days, but I was reading a few pages back and people are going on and on about how it's crazy Casey doesn't play him more, he's a force on both ends, etc.

The raptors are 6.9 points per 100 possessions worse with Jonas on the court.

That's not a fluke. That may overstate the issue, but the raptors going big doesn't help them win.

The debate should be: why is Casey emphasizing wins this season over developing a potential franchise centre?

Not: OMG, Jonas is amazing, how does he not play more, Casey is a dumbass.

Yeah, but you're focusing entirely on the net +/- on-off, as if it is the end all and be all of explaining why a guy should or shouldn't play.

All our bench players have better ratings there than basically all our starters. Does that mean that Casey should bench Lowry, DeMar and Ross frequently for Vasquze and Salmons? Or Amir for 2Pat? No. It's just a +/- based stat. Why is our bench so good in it? Because they are a solid bench that is often better than the opponent, and bench players only get extended minutes when playing well. But starters will be forced to play more minutes through tougher stretches, either individually or as a team, and individually young players are likely to have more bad nights/shifts than vets.

It definitely overstates the issue. It's a somewhat flawed stat that needs a lot of context to it.

[stooley]

Yeah, but you're focusing entirely on the net +/- on-off, as if it is the end all and be all of explaining why a guy should or shouldn't play.

All our bench players have better ratings there than basically all our starters. Does that mean that Casey should bench Lowry, DeMar and Ross frequently for Vasquze and Salmons? Or Amir for 2Pat? No. It's just a +/- based stat. Why is our bench so good in it? Because they are a solid bench that is often better than the opponent, and bench players only get extended minutes when playing well. But starters will be forced to play more minutes through tougher stretches, either individually or as a team, and individually young players are likely to have more bad nights/shifts than vets.

It definitely overstates the issue. It's a somewhat flawed stat that needs a lot of context to it.

Well I think an interesting context is that none of our other starters are any worse than -1. So Jonas' poor rating isn't because he's being played on the starting lineup, against tougher opposition, etc.

This means that the team excels when one of our bench players are subbed in for Jonas, be that Hansbrough or 2Pat.

According to this thread, Jonas isn't ever forced to play more minutes through tougher stretches. I think that's not necessarily true but his minutes are awarded when he's playing well and reduced when he's not, more so than our other starters (except for maybe TRoss), so this should help his on/off rating.

Finally, I agree that young players are more likely to have bad nights than vets, which is why he gets taken out more often, and why his minutes are inconsistent.

[white men can't jump]

Well I think an interesting context is that none of our other starters are any worse than -1. So Jonas' poor rating isn't because he's being played on the starting lineup, against tougher opposition, etc.

This means that the team excels when one of our bench players are subbed in for Jonas, be that Hansbrough or 2Pat.

According to this thread, Jonas isn't ever forced to play more minutes through tougher stretches. I think that's not necessarily true but his minutes are awarded when he's playing well and reduced when he's not, more so than our other starters (except for maybe TRoss), so this should help his on/off rating.

Finally, I agree that young players are more likely to have bad nights than vets, which is why he gets taken out more often, and why his minutes are inconsistent.

But again, all our starters are worse than pretty much all our reserves (except Hansbrough). Does that mean we should start a lineup of Hayes, 2Pat, Vasquez, Salmons and whoever? No, absolutely not. So being in the starting lineup clearly affects this rating. Judging by just looking at the Raps it clearly must account for some of the 2-3 plus points better (or more) each bench player is in this category. Patterson is a +8....Amir is a +3.6.

Again, this is a very flawed stat to me that overstates or understates value of a player for pretty much everybody.

-DeMar's is +0.9. And there have been a lot of critics about DeMar on this site, but this team is clearly not better if he's not playing. He's our best scorer, and attracts the most attention from the D. He's far more valuable than Vasquez or Salmons. Yet his rating is much lower. This has to be explained by some factors. The fact that he plays stiffer competition is likely one of them. Large minutes are probably another...they could lead to a less extreme rating as since a guy that plays more minutes is more likely to be in for both ups and downs, which could help explain why the starters (who tend to all play more minutes) have lower ratings.

Jonas also gets the quickest hook of any player. If the team is down 5 in the middle of the 1st, Casey could easily pull Jonas, sometimes regardless of whether he's playing well or not (so an instance on occasion where he's not at all an actual negative factor on the floor), and with 2Pat in the team might go on a mini-run to tie things up. The team looks like it was 5 pts better with him off the court, but it's really an overstatement and a situation where causation or correlation is difficult to attribute.

So finally, again, while I agree that the team is often a bit better without Jonas*, this stat far overstates things. It doesn't take into account when minutes are played...who they're played with, who against, can ignore actual quality of performance on the floor....and probably lots of other things I can't think of.

*And even there, it's only consistently better with the Amir/2Pat combo, and especially if we're not playing a big duo.

[stooley]

But again, all our starters are worse than pretty much all our reserves (except Hansbrough). Does that mean we should start a lineup of Hayes, 2Pat, Vasquez, Salmons and whoever? No, absolutely not. So being in the starting lineup clearly affects this rating. Judging by just looking at the Raps it clearly must account for some of the 2-3 plus points better (or more) each bench player is in this category. Patterson is a +8....Amir is a +3.6.

Again, this is a very flawed stat to me that overstates or understates value of a player for pretty much everybody.

-DeMar's is +0.9. And there have been a lot of critics about DeMar on this site, but this team is clearly not better if he's not playing. He's our best scorer, and attracts the most attention from the D. He's far more valuable than Vasquez or Salmons. Yet his rating is much lower. This has to be explained by some factors. The fact that he plays stiffer competition is likely one of them. Large minutes are probably another...they could lead to a less extreme rating as since a guy that plays more minutes is more likely to be in for both ups and downs, which could help explain why the starters (who tend to all play more minutes) have lower ratings.

Jonas also gets the quickest hook of any player. If the team is down 5 in the middle of the 1st, Casey could easily pull Jonas, sometimes regardless of whether he's playing well or not (so an instance on occasion where he's not at all an actual negative factor on the floor), and with 2Pat in the team might go on a mini-run to tie things up. The team looks like it was 5 pts better with him off the court, but it's really an overstatement and a situation where causation or correlation is difficult to attribute.

So finally, again, while I agree that the team is often a bit better without Jonas*, this stat far overstates things. It doesn't take into account when minutes are played...who they're played with, who against, can ignore actual quality of performance on the floor....and probably lots of other things I can't think of.

*And even there, it's only consistently better with the Amir/2Pat combo, and especially if we're not playing a big duo.

Right, fair enough. The quick hook may explain why Jonas' rating is worse. Subjectively, I generally think the quick hook is deserved (or at least more often than it's not).

This doesn't take into account who they're playing against, but:

The lineup of Lowry, Ross, Derozan, Amir, JV is +60 on 510 minutes of play.

The lineup of Lowry, Ross, Derozan, Amir, 2Pat is actually -2 on 59 minutes of play.

So maybe you have a point.

[white men can't jump]

Right, fair enough. The quick hook may explain why Jonas' rating is worse. Subjectively, I generally think the quick hook is deserved (or at least more often than it's not).

This doesn't take into account who they're playing against, but:

The lineup of Lowry, Ross, Derozan, Amir, JV is +60 on 510 minutes of play.

The lineup of Lowry, Ross, Derozan, Amir, 2Pat is actually -2 on 59 minutes of play.

So maybe you have a point.

I generally agree with the bold. Again, as has been said in some posts over the last few days, it's not the quick hook that's as infuriating as the lack of follow-up minutes. When it's deserved, fine. Though sometimes it's definitely not. But also give the kid the chance to follow up bad stints with good ones. And reward him for good ones. It's good for confidence and developing a comfort zone on the court if a guy knows he'll get at least certain minutes with regularity. It doesn't have to be a lot. Casey benches him for 18 minutes at a time sometimes...At least give the kid 2-4 minutes in the 2nd/4th quarter just to see how he responds, and again, get him used to a rhythm and regular role.

And yeah, I really dislike +/- based stats in basketball.