Everything Valanciunas

[Barolt]

I don't really buy that explanation, because even when you trade Lowry for DeRozan in that Lowry+Bench unit it's not the defense like the defense gets bad (it's still at 91.4 dRTG which would be near the top of the league) it's the offense that takes a hit.

And if you look at these two lineups:

DeRozan,DeMar - Joseph,Cory - Lowry,Kyle - Patterson,Patrick - Valanciunas,Jonas
DeRozan,DeMar - Lowry,Kyle - Patterson,Patrick - Ross,Terrence - Valanciunas,Jonas

They're amazing offensively, but on defense just a little bit better than normal.

You can't explain the whole NBA with lineup stats.

The Bench+DeMar group is good defensively, the Bench+Lowry group is AMAZING defensively. Just trading Lowry for DeMar is a -10.4 in terms of DRtg.

EDIT: Also, those other two lineups have both played less than 50 minutes, so there's going to be some sample size bias.

[Primer]

The Bench+DeMar group is good defensively, the Bench+Lowry group is AMAZING defensively. Just trading Lowry for DeMar is a -10.4 in terms of DRtg.

EDIT: Also, those other two lineups have both played less than 50 minutes, so there's going to be some sample size bias.

I'd like to see us try out Wright in Lowry's spot of the bench squad for a bit. Wright has been hitting 3's at a high clip in the DLeague and is supposed to be a good defender. Worth a shot to try and get Lowry's minutes down some.

[DanH]

Raps are one of the worst P&R defenses in the league with 1.08 PPP given up to the roll man as a team. It's an issue that appears to primarily stem from Jonas and Scola.

They have 1.23 and 1.21 PPP allowed against the roll man. 2Pat and Biyombo are at 0.89 and 0.94 respectively, James Johnson at 0.60 but he's only defended 10 possessions (Jonas - 39, 2pat - 46, Scola - 42, BB - 32, however per game Jonas defends the most of these at slightly over 1 per game).

For reference, the PPP for 2Pat is as good as the best team PPP in the league, and Biyombo's is as good as the 2nd best.

Yes I know it's not an individual stat, but 2Pat, Biyombo, Scola and JV largely play with the same combinations of players just at different times. So it's a valid question to ask why we're giving up a very significant 0.3 PPP more to the roll man when JV and Scola are involved as opposed to 2Pat and Bismack and an average of almost 57% shooting from the field.


I'm not even saying that this is a problem that JV necessarily needs to solve himself. What I'm suggesting is that he probably needs to be paired with a 4-man who does excel, have high mobility and post solid numbers in these situations, it's about improving the team not ragging on JV. I've got no interest in ragging on JV, he's my joint favourite player on the squad along with DD.

Wait, what? The Raptors have one of the worst PnR defences? We have one of the best! Pick and roll plays can end in one of three ways - the possession ends with the roll man, the possession ends with the ball handler, or the ball is kicked out to a spot up shooter (or a player who will initiate another play action). Only the first two are captured by the PnR stats (as a spot up shot could be off of any play action, not just PnR). So we judge based on those.

First thing to understand is that in general, allowing the opposition to hit the roll man is a problem - right there you have screwed up on the possession. The first aim of PnR coverage is to stop the ball handler from getting to the rim, the second is to stop the pass to the rolling big. That's why there is so much help on those plays.

And the Raptors are one of the best teams in the league at denying the roll pass (to a roll man that finishes the play). 6th best in the league in the ratio of roll man finishes to ball handler finishes.

Of course, that's not worth much if you let the ball handler walk in alone. So PnR defences are best judged by combining roll man and ball handler stats. Combine the two and you get a total number of PnR plays and an overall PPP given up.

The Raptors face roughly an average number of possessions in the PnR in total (1267 on the year, league average is 1332 and ranges from about 1000 to 1700). They are 8th in the league in lowest PPP given up between ball handler and roll man, due to a) stingy ball handler PPP defence and b) elite prevention of roll man possessions.

The Raptors are a very good pick and roll defending team. Sure, when the opposition finds a seam they score well on the roll. But they don't find those seams very often, and when they don't they are forced into a low percentage look for the ball handler.

[hotfuzz]

Just going by the eyes test, pnr defense is a hard thing to do for a C. Only a handful of bigs that are good at it in the league. It's just a hard play to defend because it relies on the whole team communicating and the guards are damn fast nowadays.

[S.R.]

Wait, what? The Raptors have one of the worst PnR defences? We have one of the best! Pick and roll plays can end in one of three ways - the possession ends with the roll man, the possession ends with the ball handler, or the ball is kicked out to a spot up shooter (or a player who will initiate another play action). Only the first two are captured by the PnR stats (as a spot up shot could be off of any play action, not just PnR). So we judge based on those.

First thing to understand is that in general, allowing the opposition to hit the roll man is a problem - right there you have screwed up on the possession. The first aim of PnR coverage is to stop the ball handler from getting to the rim, the second is to stop the pass to the rolling big. That's why there is so much help on those plays.

And the Raptors are one of the best teams in the league at denying the roll pass (to a roll man that finishes the play). 6th best in the league in the ratio of roll man finishes to ball handler finishes.

Of course, that's not worth much if you let the ball handler walk in alone. So PnR defences are best judged by combining roll man and ball handler stats. Combine the two and you get a total number of PnR plays and an overall PPP given up.

The Raptors face roughly an average number of possessions in the PnR in total (1267 on the year, league average is 1332 and ranges from about 1000 to 1700). They are 8th in the league in lowest PPP given up between ball handler and roll man, due to a) stingy ball handler PPP defence and b) elite prevention of roll man possessions.

The Raptors are a very good pick and roll defending team. Sure, when the opposition finds a seam they score well on the roll. But they don't find those seams very often, and when they don't they are forced into a low percentage look for the ball handler.

This bold.

JWash, the ppp stats you pulled out for defending the roll man, if you subbed in any of these players to defend JV's 39 roll man defensive possessions over his 34 games played, this is the difference we'd be taking about (how many fewer ppg - not ppp - allowed):

- Whiteside = .18
- Tyson Chandler = .23
- D.Jordan = .28
- Horford = .3
- Biyombo = .33

In other words, a difference small enough that it's highly unlikely subbing in any of these guys for JV on the roll defense would have affected a single win this season.

[JWash]

Wait, what? The Raptors have one of the worst PnR defences? We have one of the best! Pick and roll plays can end in one of three ways - the possession ends with the roll man, the possession ends with the ball handler, or the ball is kicked out to a spot up shooter (or a player who will initiate another play action). Only the first two are captured by the PnR stats (as a spot up shot could be off of any play action, not just PnR). So we judge based on those.

First thing to understand is that in general, allowing the opposition to hit the roll man is a problem - right there you have screwed up on the possession. The first aim of PnR coverage is to stop the ball handler from getting to the rim, the second is to stop the pass to the rolling big. That's why there is so much help on those plays.

And the Raptors are one of the best teams in the league at denying the roll pass (to a roll man that finishes the play). 6th best in the league in the ratio of roll man finishes to ball handler finishes.

Of course, that's not worth much if you let the ball handler walk in alone. So PnR defences are best judged by combining roll man and ball handler stats. Combine the two and you get a total number of PnR plays and an overall PPP given up.

The Raptors face roughly an average number of possessions in the PnR in total (1267 on the year, league average is 1332 and ranges from about 1000 to 1700). They are 8th in the league in lowest PPP given up between ball handler and roll man, due to a) stingy ball handler PPP defence and b) elite prevention of roll man possessions.

The Raptors are a very good pick and roll defending team. Sure, when the opposition finds a seam they score well on the roll. But they don't find those seams very often, and when they don't they are forced into a low percentage look for the ball handler.

I meant we're bad at defending the roll man. Teams score very efficiently against us when they're able to get the ball to the roll man.

[JWash]

This bold.

JWash, the ppp stats you pulled out for defending the roll man, if you subbed in any of these players to defend JV's 39 roll man defensive possessions over his 34 games played, this is the difference we'd be taking about (how many fewer ppg - not ppp - allowed):

- Whiteside = .18
- Tyson Chandler = .23
- D.Jordan = .28
- Horford = .3
- Biyombo = .33

In other words, a difference small enough that it's highly unlikely subbing in any of these guys for JV on the roll defense would have affected a single win this season.

I'm not suggesting getting rid of JV or substituting him for anyone though am I?

Have no interest in doing that.

[hotfuzz]

I meant we're bad at defending the roll man. Teams score very efficiently against us when they're able to get the ball to the roll man.

I'm guessing we're defending the roll man so aggressively (as mentioned by Danh), that when the ball handler does find him, it's an easy bucket, but it's rare.

[JWash]

I'm guessing we're defending the roll man so aggressively (as mentioned by Danh), that when the ball handler does find him, it's an easy bucket, but it's rare.

I think you mean defending the ball handler aggressively? But yeah that appears to be the case.

[DanH]

I meant we're bad at defending the roll man. Teams score very efficiently against us when they're able to get the ball to the roll man.

Sure, but you realize that is a descriptor that is almost entirely meaningless, right? Would you judge team's defences based on the percentage the opposition makes when they have uncontested layups? No, you'd judge them on how often they give up those uncontested layups. That's an extreme case but the same idea - one the roll man has the ball the defence has already failed and is not in a good position to defend the shot (which will often actually be an uncontested layup). The defence is played before the roll man gets the ball most of the time.

[JWash]

Sure, but you realize that is a descriptor that is almost entirely meaningless, right? Would you judge team's defences based on the percentage the opposition makes when they have uncontested layups? No, you'd judge them on how often they give up those uncontested layups. That's an extreme case but the same idea - one the roll man has the ball the defence has already failed and is not in a good position to defend the shot (which will often actually be an uncontested layup). The defence is played before the roll man gets the ball most of the time.

I disagree that it's meaningless, but yeah the ball-handler defense is much more important like you said.

Most of our wings/guards are at around 0.70 PPP against P&R ball-handlers and allowing under 40% shooting so yeah I guess pick and roll defense isn't really an issue. Could be against a team that's very effective at hitting the roll man (especially if that roll man is a dangerous scorer) due to having an elite passer like Cleveland for example with LeBron and Love in the pick and roll, but overall it isn't as much as I thought.

[S.R.]

I'm not suggesting getting rid of JV or substituting him for anyone though am I?

Have no interest in doing that.

I think you mean defending the ball handler aggressively? But yeah that appears to be the case.

Sure, but you realize that is a descriptor that is almost entirely meaningless, right? Would you judge team's defences based on the percentage the opposition makes when they have uncontested layups? No, you'd judge them on how often they give up those uncontested layups. That's an extreme case but the same idea - one the roll man has the ball the defence has already failed and is not in a good position to defend the shot (which will often actually be an uncontested layup). The defence is played before the roll man gets the ball most of the time.

^^^ That's what my post was talking about, not trading JV. If JV's roll defense were better, say on par with Biyombo's or Horford's, it likely would have affected zero wins this season. Zero.

Could JV have better lateral quicks if he were smaller like BB or an athletic freak like D.Jordan? Probably. But it really isn't impacting games at all. I mean we're talking about less than an extra quarter point allowed on about one possession per game vs. comparable defenders. Writing that up as "teams score very effectively against us" seems like embellishing the point. Especially if the difference is too small to affect wins.

[KHD]

Sure, but you realize that is a descriptor that is almost entirely meaningless, right? Would you judge team's defences based on the percentage the opposition makes when they have uncontested layups? No, you'd judge them on how often they give up those uncontested layups. That's an extreme case but the same idea - one the roll man has the ball the defence has already failed and is not in a good position to defend the shot (which will often actually be an uncontested layup). The defence is played before the roll man gets the ball most of the time.

that's basically what he just did.

[DanH]

I disagree that it's meaningless, but yeah the ball-handler defense is much more important like you said.

Most of our wings/guards are at around 0.70 PPP against P&R ball-handlers and allowing under 40% shooting so yeah I guess pick and roll defense isn't really an issue. Could be against a team that's very effective at hitting the roll man (especially if that roll man is a dangerous scorer) due to having an elite passer like Cleveland for example with LeBron and Love in the pick and roll, but overall it isn't as much as I thought.

Hold on, that's not what I said at all! PnR defence is two pieces, if you are good at ball handler defence but give up twice as many attempts by roll men than ball handlers then you are a terrible PnR team in spite of good numbers against ball handlers.

What I said was the PPP on rolls given up is meaningless without the context of how often the roll man is able to get the ball. How bad would our pick and roll defence be if we gave up 2 PPP to the roll man on average? Disastrous, right? What if we had such amazing defence that opposing teams had only managed to make the pass to the roll man once this season and that roll man dunked it? Seems like we still have a 2 PPP roll man defence - is it still disastrous?

[mcHAPPY]

Marc Gasol broken foot out indefinitely.

...trading JV would have been stellar.