Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

The NHL Thread

Collapse
This is a sticky topic.
X
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Demographic Shift
    replied
    DanH wrote: View Post

    Yeah but why not complain about the million they could have got from Matthews. Or the 4M they are stuck with with Ceci because of the Zaitsev contract. Or the stupid retained Kessel money.

    Reality is, the extra million would mean nothing at this point. Until Marner's deal is set in stone they don't know how much the have to work with and that would be true with the extra million too.

    Which NHL defencemen that are real upgrades on the guys you list are available for 2M AAV, exactly? Anyone available for 1M they can get now, there's nothing stopping that. They aren't signing them because they don't want to sign them now.

    Panarin was a UFA, you can't compare UFA and RFA contracts. Wildly different markets. Aho went hunting for a short term deal and got it - at 8.5M. No team is risking 4 draft picks to get a guy on a short term deal, and overpaid at that.

    I don't really understand the scenario where Nylander signs for 6M though - is that just you making up a number? Considering the deal was last minute, it was likely either the 7M x 7 deal (which will be a steal in a few years), or him sitting out the year. And hunting for offer sheets at the same time as Marner, making this summer even harder to plan for.
    Legit on pointing out Mathews .. I'd push back a little on that the negotiations with Mathews were quick and both player and team landed on the number fairly quickly... Mathews wins on term... He gets right to free agency and another monster deal. This time with an open bid.
    I will push back on Zaitsev as he signed his deal 3 years ago when there was unlimited cap space. Lou might have whiffed on that one.. As for Kessel.. thats too long ago to be relevant.

    I agree there are subtleties in the UFA vs RFA signing options... but the score in the clubhouse is the score in the clubhouse. Those two players are good compares to Marner.

    The compare for Nylander during the negotiations was going to be Pasternack in Boston. They were top line players of the same age, the same skill sets and same expectations from the teams. Pasternaks numbers were better but the eyeball test said he was a better offensive player than Nylander by more than a bit. He scores 5 on 5 and on the PP. He goes to the net without fear. He has won. He signed a 6 for 40. Nate McKinnon went 7 for 44 and Philip Forsberg did 6 for 36. Yet the Leafs gave Nylander more than Pasternak and McKinnon and way more than Forsberg. We can debate forever what the right number was but 6 and 36 reflects Nylanders ranking in that salary range and doesn't look unreasonable. He is not Nate McKinnon and he never will be. Pasternack is still the bar to get to for Willy but I am not holding my breath right now. Forsbergs ceiling and game more closely resemble Nylanders. I think Dubas overpaid at 7..

    Ceci played first pairing minutes last year in Ottawa. He has bad analytics .. He was a minus -22.. but if your first pairing that means you see the other teams best players every single game. . So a week for Ceci could look like Crosby and Kessel on Monday in Pittsburgh... Wedensday at home he gets Stamkos and Kutcherov .. and then the HNIC in Canada on Saturday game is Mathews and Tavares ....Then on the plane for a back to back game in Chicago to see Kane ... Its like that every night. -22 aint so bad.

    Marincin and Holl were the 6 and 7 guys on poor defensive corps last year. Not looking for a steal on the FA market for a million or so... just a guy who has played .DelZotto will take that.. and Phaneuf might. Why those guys.. because in the playoffs when everything magnifies those two guys have played at that level before. They are just better bets in a trust them shift when the others need a blow. But we won't know cuz the wiggle room for that salary is not available right now. Where did it go ?

    I think the depth defenseman is tied up in Willy.

    You just can't have enough defensemen in the NHL. You need 7 or 8 to make a deep run.
    The Leafs have 5 right now and the 6th is on IR.
    ts the NHL. There will be injuries on the blueline. They need more depth.
    Last edited by Demographic Shift; Sun Jul 14, 2019, 04:16 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    Demographic Shift wrote: View Post

    The million or so gets you another NHL player on defense.
    Right now its Marincin and Holl as Dermott is hurt and the next two on the depth chart are the two A prospects the Sweedish kids on the Marlies. Its the NHL. Someone is going to get hurt before Christmas. They need the depth. The million could have got them a 6 or 7 guy who has played in the league. A guy like DelZotto is available for the $1 min or maybe even Dion swallows his pride and signs a one year deal for 1.5.

    As for what Mitch settles on... we shall see.

    Aho I think went low at $8.5 Panarrin (good for him) got 11.5. I think the Rangers overpaid but they look to be ready for the playoffs again and Panarrin gets them there after they picked up Trouba and that kid Kappo Kaako. Kaako could be Barkov good. I think he plays right away.

    WIth an offer sheet coming in now getting more unlikely Marner has lost leverage.
    As we have seen... Its better for everyone if this is done in time for training camp.


    As an afterthought.... ever notice how quicky the Rangers bounce back and have orderly rebuilds back to contention. They are generally a really well run organization.... Where the Knicks are a gong show most of the time.
    Yet both teams are owned by the same guy the much maligned James Dolan.
    Yeah but why not complain about the million they could have got from Matthews. Or the 4M they are stuck with with Ceci because of the Zaitsev contract. Or the stupid retained Kessel money.

    Reality is, the extra million would mean nothing at this point. Until Marner's deal is set in stone they don't know how much the have to work with and that would be true with the extra million too.

    Which NHL defencemen that are real upgrades on the guys you list are available for 2M AAV, exactly? Anyone available for 1M they can get now, there's nothing stopping that. They aren't signing them because they don't want to sign them now.

    Panarin was a UFA, you can't compare UFA and RFA contracts. Wildly different markets. Aho went hunting for a short term deal and got it - at 8.5M. No team is risking 4 draft picks to get a guy on a short term deal, and overpaid at that.

    I don't really understand the scenario where Nylander signs for 6M though - is that just you making up a number? Considering the deal was last minute, it was likely either the 7M x 7 deal (which will be a steal in a few years), or him sitting out the year. And hunting for offer sheets at the same time as Marner, making this summer even harder to plan for.

    Leave a comment:


  • Demographic Shift
    replied
    DanH wrote: View Post

    10M for 5 years is a clear win for Marner and anyone thinking it's a compromise means his agent team has been incredibly successful.

    I don't think Dubas will have the stomach for another Nylander situation, although the Nylander contract was actually a very good job by the Leafs. Got term at a pretty low number. But they definitely won't want to hurt another season of Tavares' waiting out a contract dispute.

    The good news is Marner has gone hunting for an offer sheet and it sounds like every other team is telling him the same thing as the Leafs - you want that 10M+ contract, you'd better be OK with full length term. If he wants a 5 year deal or shorter, it will likely have to be more in the 9M range.

    That said, I'm surprised anyone would think that the extra million would make a difference for the Leafs. If they had the extra million they would still not want to pay Marner way above market. And it's not like they can't fit any contract for Marner (given the offers that can actually be expected) in with Nylander there. They've actually set themselves up beautifully for this summer to match (and also to walk away if they have the opportunity to take 4 firsts and a pile of cap room for their trouble) pretty much anything. The negotiations now are about next summer, when they'll want to be able to keep some of the defensive upgrades they acquired over the past 6 months.
    The million or so gets you another NHL player on defense.
    Right now its Marincin and Holl as Dermott is hurt and the next two on the depth chart are the two A prospects the Sweedish kids on the Marlies. Its the NHL. Someone is going to get hurt before Christmas. They need the depth. The million could have got them a 6 or 7 guy who has played in the league. A guy like DelZotto is available for the $1 min or maybe even Dion swallows his pride and signs a one year deal for 1.5.

    As for what Mitch settles on... we shall see.

    Aho I think went low at $8.5 Panarrin (good for him) got 11.5. I think the Rangers overpaid but they look to be ready for the playoffs again and Panarrin gets them there after they picked up Trouba and that kid Kappo Kaako. Kaako could be Barkov good. I think he plays right away.

    WIth an offer sheet coming in now getting more unlikely Marner has lost leverage.
    As we have seen... Its better for everyone if this is done in time for training camp.


    As an afterthought.... ever notice how quicky the Rangers bounce back and have orderly rebuilds back to contention. They are generally a really well run organization.... Where the Knicks are a gong show most of the time.
    Yet both teams are owned by the same guy the much maligned James Dolan.
    Last edited by Demographic Shift; Sat Jul 13, 2019, 11:50 PM. Reason: The Dolan thing

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    Demographic Shift wrote: View Post
    As the real summer arrives....One question that comes up for the leafs is "Just how stubborn is Mitch Marners camp " ?

    To me... Dubas fucked up by not grinding Nylander and his camp into dust... It was over a million bucks. 7M for 6 years vs 6M for 6 years.That money would have come in handy this year....I don't think he makes the same mistake this time through with Marner. .

    In the NHL the team has all the leverage unless its a true UFA situation... I think Dubas is prepared to use that leverage for optics as much as anything else as he gets to closure on Marners deal....which I think comes in at 5 years @10M$ a year. The Leafs get him at the price they need and Mitch gets a clear path to UFA at the age of 27. .

    What happens between now and 27 will determine who made the right bet.
    10M for 5 years is a clear win for Marner and anyone thinking it's a compromise means his agent team has been incredibly successful.

    I don't think Dubas will have the stomach for another Nylander situation, although the Nylander contract was actually a very good job by the Leafs. Got term at a pretty low number. But they definitely won't want to hurt another season of Tavares' waiting out a contract dispute.

    The good news is Marner has gone hunting for an offer sheet and it sounds like every other team is telling him the same thing as the Leafs - you want that 10M+ contract, you'd better be OK with full length term. If he wants a 5 year deal or shorter, it will likely have to be more in the 9M range.

    That said, I'm surprised anyone would think that the extra million would make a difference for the Leafs. If they had the extra million they would still not want to pay Marner way above market. And it's not like they can't fit any contract for Marner (given the offers that can actually be expected) in with Nylander there. They've actually set themselves up beautifully for this summer to match (and also to walk away if they have the opportunity to take 4 firsts and a pile of cap room for their trouble) pretty much anything. The negotiations now are about next summer, when they'll want to be able to keep some of the defensive upgrades they acquired over the past 6 months.

    Leave a comment:


  • Demographic Shift
    replied
    As the real summer arrives....One question that comes up for the leafs is "Just how stubborn is Mitch Marners camp " ?

    To me... Dubas fucked up by not grinding Nylander and his camp into dust... It was over a million bucks. 7M for 6 years vs 6M for 6 years.That money would have come in handy this year....I don't think he makes the same mistake this time through with Marner. .

    In the NHL the team has all the leverage unless its a true UFA situation... I think Dubas is prepared to use that leverage for optics as much as anything else as he gets to closure on Marners deal....which I think comes in at 5 years @10M$ a year. The Leafs get him at the price they need and Mitch gets a clear path to UFA at the age of 27. .

    What happens between now and 27 will determine who made the right bet.
    Last edited by Demographic Shift; Sat Jul 13, 2019, 02:37 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Superjudge
    replied
    DanH wrote: View Post
    I'm intrigued by the thinking I've seen that the Leafs might try to get out from under Ceci's deal (either by going to arbitration and walking if it comes in high enough, or by signing him to a one year deal with a massive signing bonus and flipping him to a cap floor team for nothing), and using the extra cash to bring back Gardiner for a year to bridge the gap to when Liljegren and Sandin will be ready to step in. That assumes Gardiner doesn't have the market he would like to have and would take a one year deal to try to boost his value and get a bigger payday next summer.

    That would give the Leafs their best defensive lineup probably ever, while still rocking two powerhouse lines up front. Rielly-Gardiner, Muzzin-Barrie, Dermott-whoever (not Harpur, he's bad).

    And the cap will definitely be tight again next summer, but tight is fine. Tight can be managed.
    I agree with you 100%.
    Not a lot you can do if you want to hold on to the guys they have up front. It's a bit precarious depending upon a few young guys in Liljegren and Sandin to step up and be top shelf defenders, but its what ya have. Toronto has to really just hope their scouting and development are top priority as they will have to rely on young/AHL level gems to bolster a top heavy lineup.

    Good problem to have if we look back a few years at how bad Toronto has been.

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    Demographic Shift wrote: View Post

    He will land...
    This is why you hate the hard cap...
    He is worth 6M ... but he might not get it....

    I hope he lands with one of .. Detroit... LA Kings... Philly.... Rangers....Columbus... maybe Montreal...
    He helps them all...
    If he's worth 6M, it's not the hard cap why he won't get it. Soft or hard cap there is only so much money to go around.

    I'm rooting for him to get his pay day. Just saying, if it's not out there, Leafs would likely love to give him a one year deal to prove his health.

    Leave a comment:


  • Demographic Shift
    replied
    DanH wrote: View Post

    I would have bet on him not coming back heading into the offseason. But it's weird he doesn't have a deal yet. Might mean the money he wants is not out there, maybe teams are scared of the back injury and don't want to hand out term.
    He will land...
    This is why you hate the hard cap...
    He is worth 6M ... but he might not get it....

    I hope he lands with one of .. Detroit... LA Kings... Philly.... Rangers....Columbus... maybe Montreal...
    He helps them all...

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    Demographic Shift wrote: View Post

    I like Gardiner... Its not just anyone that can put up 50 points from the blueline....
    But the fan base has soured on him. For his own good he has to move on. No matter what he won't do anything right. Its tough to play in that fishbowl.
    He is the lighting rod that Kessel was ...before Phil it was Larry Murphy.. and before him it was Mike Pelyk and before him it was the Big M...
    When the Toronto crowd sours on you.. its not pretty... its not logical but it is what it is.

    I hope he winds up in a good situation...

    Philly has room and so does Columbus and the LA Kings....The Rangers are making a serious move right now.. he could help them.

    Just don't think he stays here.
    ..
    I would have bet on him not coming back heading into the offseason. But it's weird he doesn't have a deal yet. Might mean the money he wants is not out there, maybe teams are scared of the back injury and don't want to hand out term.

    Leave a comment:


  • Demographic Shift
    replied
    DanH wrote: View Post
    I'm intrigued by the thinking I've seen that the Leafs might try to get out from under Ceci's deal (either by going to arbitration and walking if it comes in high enough, or by signing him to a one year deal with a massive signing bonus and flipping him to a cap floor team for nothing), and using the extra cash to bring back Gardiner for a year to bridge the gap to when Liljegren and Sandin will be ready to step in. That assumes Gardiner doesn't have the market he would like to have and would take a one year deal to try to boost his value and get a bigger payday next summer.

    That would give the Leafs their best defensive lineup probably ever, while still rocking two powerhouse lines up front. Rielly-Gardiner, Muzzin-Barrie, Dermott-whoever (not Harpur, he's bad).

    And the cap will definitely be tight again next summer, but tight is fine. Tight can be managed.
    I like Gardiner... Its not just anyone that can put up 50 points from the blueline....
    But the fan base has soured on him. For his own good he has to move on. No matter what he won't do anything right. Its tough to play in that fishbowl.
    He is the lighting rod that Kessel was ...before Phil it was Larry Murphy.. and before him it was Mike Pelyk and before him it was the Big M...
    When the Toronto crowd sours on you.. its not pretty... its not logical but it is what it is.

    I hope he winds up in a good situation...

    Philly has room and so does Columbus and the LA Kings....The Rangers are making a serious move right now.. he could help them.

    Just don't think he stays here.
    ..

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    I'm intrigued by the thinking I've seen that the Leafs might try to get out from under Ceci's deal (either by going to arbitration and walking if it comes in high enough, or by signing him to a one year deal with a massive signing bonus and flipping him to a cap floor team for nothing), and using the extra cash to bring back Gardiner for a year to bridge the gap to when Liljegren and Sandin will be ready to step in. That assumes Gardiner doesn't have the market he would like to have and would take a one year deal to try to boost his value and get a bigger payday next summer.

    That would give the Leafs their best defensive lineup probably ever, while still rocking two powerhouse lines up front. Rielly-Gardiner, Muzzin-Barrie, Dermott-whoever (not Harpur, he's bad).

    And the cap will definitely be tight again next summer, but tight is fine. Tight can be managed.

    Leave a comment:


  • Demographic Shift
    replied
    DanH wrote: View Post
    Gosh, love the job Dubas has done this spring/summer. Finally got his pick moving RHD. Cleared cap long term by dumping Zaitsev and might even be able to keep Barrie after this year. Totally pick neutral with the two deals too.

    Ceci is no good, but he can play the right side and might be OK in his own zone in the right circumstances, can at least kill penalties, and if he's on the third pair it will be fine. Still curious who the other top 4 guy ends up being. Might be Ceci, which is a bit of a risk, might end up Dermott when he's back, or he might get to helm his own pair.

    Really like the forward depth they've added too, even shedding Kadri and Brown and Ennis, with Spezza and Kerfoot and Shore and Agostino...

    Throw in locking down Kappy and Johnson for multiple years at reasonable cap hits and all that's really left is getting Marner's signature on a deal.
    For sure after this off season this is now Dubas's team.
    They are comprised of skill and speed up front and on the back end they have a ton of puck moving defenseman who can all skate.

    Dubas also got out of cap hell but it cost him. Such is the price of a hard cap. Gone are a still serviceable Patrick Marleau and 1st rounder to move 6M in cap. Gone is favourite whipping boy Jake Gardiner and his 50 points and his 4.5M$ cap hit from the blueline for .. nada. The sole semblance of snarl up front .. Naz Khadri is off to Coors country. Back comes a solid young guy in Kerfoot to man the 3rd C slot who isn't as good as Naz but can play and will see 2nd unit PP time. The big piece of the trade coming to Toronto and to me a big upgrade on the blue line over Zaitsev isTyson Barrie. Barrie is real get but he is a UFA in a year. Ouch when Naz was under team control for 3 more years. Cap problems will be back next year as well. Damn I despise a hard cap so they can have hockey in Phoenix.

    Overall I think the team is way more balanced as the defense now sports Reilly, Muzzin.Ceci, Barrie and Dermott. Who is the number 6 could be any one of Marincin or Lilofgren or the other guy they got from Ottawa Ben Harpur who has size. Its going to be better than last years crew.

    So here we go...

    Dubas has a team that is smaller but supremely skilled. That works great in the regular season but the last two Cup teams had both skill and size and snarl.. St. Louis and Boston were the last guys standing this year and they were both in the biggest and most physical teams in the league category.The year before it was the Capitals with the biggest team in the league who won.... but before that Pittsburg won two in a row on skill..... with not as much snarl...

    This was a conscious decision to build the team this way... Lets see how things go next April.
    Last edited by Demographic Shift; Wed Jul 3, 2019, 11:37 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • DanH
    replied
    Gosh, love the job Dubas has done this spring/summer. Finally got his pick moving RHD. Cleared cap long term by dumping Zaitsev and might even be able to keep Barrie after this year. Totally pick neutral with the two deals too.

    Ceci is no good, but he can play the right side and might be OK in his own zone in the right circumstances, can at least kill penalties, and if he's on the third pair it will be fine. Still curious who the other top 4 guy ends up being. Might be Ceci, which is a bit of a risk, might end up Dermott when he's back, or he might get to helm his own pair.

    ​​​​​​​Really like the forward depth they've added too, even shedding Kadri and Brown and Ennis, with Spezza and Kerfoot and Shore and Agostino...

    ​​​​​​​Throw in locking down Kappy and Johnson for multiple years at reasonable cap hits and all that's really left is getting Marner's signature on a deal.

    Leave a comment:


  • slaw
    replied
    Thank the gods. I can't stand anymore Boston championships. Good for St. Louis. What a great story.

    Leave a comment:


  • Demographic Shift
    replied
    Game 7 of the Stanley Cup playoffs goes tonight.
    .
    The best road team in the playoffs the St. Louis Blues travels to Boston.
    Both have great goaltending (whodathunkthat eh?)
    Both have solid bluelines.
    There is a storyline.....42 year old Zedeno Chara is playing with a broken jaw.... remember the pitcher for the Jays who had to sit down with "forearm tightness" and couldn't understand the mocking laughter he got ?
    St. Louis is the the more physically imposing team and can and will use that after the Bataan Death march that is the Stanley Cup Playoffs. It matters. Boston can finish better than the Blues.

    Flip a coin...

    Heart over head.... The St. Louis Blues skate back to Mizzou with Lord Stanley...
    Last edited by Demographic Shift; Wed Jun 12, 2019, 02:50 PM.

    Leave a comment:

Working...
X