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  • DanH wrote: View Post

    10M for 5 years is a clear win for Marner and anyone thinking it's a compromise means his agent team has been incredibly successful.

    I don't think Dubas will have the stomach for another Nylander situation, although the Nylander contract was actually a very good job by the Leafs. Got term at a pretty low number. But they definitely won't want to hurt another season of Tavares' waiting out a contract dispute.

    The good news is Marner has gone hunting for an offer sheet and it sounds like every other team is telling him the same thing as the Leafs - you want that 10M+ contract, you'd better be OK with full length term. If he wants a 5 year deal or shorter, it will likely have to be more in the 9M range.

    That said, I'm surprised anyone would think that the extra million would make a difference for the Leafs. If they had the extra million they would still not want to pay Marner way above market. And it's not like they can't fit any contract for Marner (given the offers that can actually be expected) in with Nylander there. They've actually set themselves up beautifully for this summer to match (and also to walk away if they have the opportunity to take 4 firsts and a pile of cap room for their trouble) pretty much anything. The negotiations now are about next summer, when they'll want to be able to keep some of the defensive upgrades they acquired over the past 6 months.
    The million or so gets you another NHL player on defense.
    Right now its Marincin and Holl as Dermott is hurt and the next two on the depth chart are the two A prospects the Sweedish kids on the Marlies. Its the NHL. Someone is going to get hurt before Christmas. They need the depth. The million could have got them a 6 or 7 guy who has played in the league. A guy like DelZotto is available for the $1 min or maybe even Dion swallows his pride and signs a one year deal for 1.5.

    As for what Mitch settles on... we shall see.

    Aho I think went low at $8.5 Panarrin (good for him) got 11.5. I think the Rangers overpaid but they look to be ready for the playoffs again and Panarrin gets them there after they picked up Trouba and that kid Kappo Kaako. Kaako could be Barkov good. I think he plays right away.

    WIth an offer sheet coming in now getting more unlikely Marner has lost leverage.
    As we have seen... Its better for everyone if this is done in time for training camp.


    As an afterthought.... ever notice how quicky the Rangers bounce back and have orderly rebuilds back to contention. They are generally a really well run organization.... Where the Knicks are a gong show most of the time.
    Yet both teams are owned by the same guy the much maligned James Dolan.
    Last edited by Demographic Shift; Sat Jul 13th, 2019, 10:50 PM. Reason: The Dolan thing

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    • Demographic Shift wrote: View Post

      The million or so gets you another NHL player on defense.
      Right now its Marincin and Holl as Dermott is hurt and the next two on the depth chart are the two A prospects the Sweedish kids on the Marlies. Its the NHL. Someone is going to get hurt before Christmas. They need the depth. The million could have got them a 6 or 7 guy who has played in the league. A guy like DelZotto is available for the $1 min or maybe even Dion swallows his pride and signs a one year deal for 1.5.

      As for what Mitch settles on... we shall see.

      Aho I think went low at $8.5 Panarrin (good for him) got 11.5. I think the Rangers overpaid but they look to be ready for the playoffs again and Panarrin gets them there after they picked up Trouba and that kid Kappo Kaako. Kaako could be Barkov good. I think he plays right away.

      WIth an offer sheet coming in now getting more unlikely Marner has lost leverage.
      As we have seen... Its better for everyone if this is done in time for training camp.


      As an afterthought.... ever notice how quicky the Rangers bounce back and have orderly rebuilds back to contention. They are generally a really well run organization.... Where the Knicks are a gong show most of the time.
      Yet both teams are owned by the same guy the much maligned James Dolan.
      Yeah but why not complain about the million they could have got from Matthews. Or the 4M they are stuck with with Ceci because of the Zaitsev contract. Or the stupid retained Kessel money.

      Reality is, the extra million would mean nothing at this point. Until Marner's deal is set in stone they don't know how much the have to work with and that would be true with the extra million too.

      Which NHL defencemen that are real upgrades on the guys you list are available for 2M AAV, exactly? Anyone available for 1M they can get now, there's nothing stopping that. They aren't signing them because they don't want to sign them now.

      Panarin was a UFA, you can't compare UFA and RFA contracts. Wildly different markets. Aho went hunting for a short term deal and got it - at 8.5M. No team is risking 4 draft picks to get a guy on a short term deal, and overpaid at that.

      I don't really understand the scenario where Nylander signs for 6M though - is that just you making up a number? Considering the deal was last minute, it was likely either the 7M x 7 deal (which will be a steal in a few years), or him sitting out the year. And hunting for offer sheets at the same time as Marner, making this summer even harder to plan for.
      twitter.com/dhackett1565

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      • DanH wrote: View Post

        Yeah but why not complain about the million they could have got from Matthews. Or the 4M they are stuck with with Ceci because of the Zaitsev contract. Or the stupid retained Kessel money.

        Reality is, the extra million would mean nothing at this point. Until Marner's deal is set in stone they don't know how much the have to work with and that would be true with the extra million too.

        Which NHL defencemen that are real upgrades on the guys you list are available for 2M AAV, exactly? Anyone available for 1M they can get now, there's nothing stopping that. They aren't signing them because they don't want to sign them now.

        Panarin was a UFA, you can't compare UFA and RFA contracts. Wildly different markets. Aho went hunting for a short term deal and got it - at 8.5M. No team is risking 4 draft picks to get a guy on a short term deal, and overpaid at that.

        I don't really understand the scenario where Nylander signs for 6M though - is that just you making up a number? Considering the deal was last minute, it was likely either the 7M x 7 deal (which will be a steal in a few years), or him sitting out the year. And hunting for offer sheets at the same time as Marner, making this summer even harder to plan for.
        Legit on pointing out Mathews .. I'd push back a little on that the negotiations with Mathews were quick and both player and team landed on the number fairly quickly... Mathews wins on term... He gets right to free agency and another monster deal. This time with an open bid.
        I will push back on Zaitsev as he signed his deal 3 years ago when there was unlimited cap space. Lou might have whiffed on that one.. As for Kessel.. thats too long ago to be relevant.

        I agree there are subtleties in the UFA vs RFA signing options... but the score in the clubhouse is the score in the clubhouse. Those two players are good compares to Marner.

        The compare for Nylander during the negotiations was going to be Pasternack in Boston. They were top line players of the same age, the same skill sets and same expectations from the teams. Pasternaks numbers were better but the eyeball test said he was a better offensive player than Nylander by more than a bit. He scores 5 on 5 and on the PP. He goes to the net without fear. He has won. He signed a 6 for 40. Nate McKinnon went 7 for 44 and Philip Forsberg did 6 for 36. Yet the Leafs gave Nylander more than Pasternak and McKinnon and way more than Forsberg. We can debate forever what the right number was but 6 and 36 reflects Nylanders ranking in that salary range and doesn't look unreasonable. He is not Nate McKinnon and he never will be. Pasternack is still the bar to get to for Willy but I am not holding my breath right now. Forsbergs ceiling and game more closely resemble Nylanders. I think Dubas overpaid at 7..

        Ceci played first pairing minutes last year in Ottawa. He has bad analytics .. He was a minus -22.. but if your first pairing that means you see the other teams best players every single game. . So a week for Ceci could look like Crosby and Kessel on Monday in Pittsburgh... Wedensday at home he gets Stamkos and Kutcherov .. and then the HNIC in Canada on Saturday game is Mathews and Tavares ....Then on the plane for a back to back game in Chicago to see Kane ... Its like that every night. -22 aint so bad.

        Marincin and Holl were the 6 and 7 guys on poor defensive corps last year. Not looking for a steal on the FA market for a million or so... just a guy who has played .DelZotto will take that.. and Phaneuf might. Why those guys.. because in the playoffs when everything magnifies those two guys have played at that level before. They are just better bets in a trust them shift when the others need a blow. But we won't know cuz the wiggle room for that salary is not available right now. Where did it go ?

        I think the depth defenseman is tied up in Willy.

        You just can't have enough defensemen in the NHL. You need 7 or 8 to make a deep run.
        The Leafs have 5 right now and the 6th is on IR.
        ts the NHL. There will be injuries on the blueline. They need more depth.
        Last edited by Demographic Shift; Sun Jul 14th, 2019, 03:16 PM.

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        • Oh the Leafs would far prefer to get Nylander at 7 for 7 than 6 for 6, nevermind that Nylander would have sat the year rather than signing 6 for 6.

          Again. If they want to sign some depth vet defenceman to be 7th guy, they can do that. Nylander and Marner both have zero impact on that.

          ​​​​​
          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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          • DanH wrote: View Post
            Oh the Leafs would far prefer to get Nylander at 7 for 7 than 6 for 6, nevermind that Nylander would have sat the year rather than signing 6 for 6.

            Again. If they want to sign some depth vet defenceman to be 7th guy, they can do that. Nylander and Marner both have zero impact on that.

            ​​​​​
            Well there really are no winners if he sat the year out. .. Its like one of those when your drunk decisions that poll well in the moment .. but in the cold light of day .. look dumb. The Leafs lose a guy for a year who can play and Nylander loses a year and some serious cash he will never ever get back. Ever. Lose Lose.

            As for the depth point...
            There is only so much money to go around on a 20 man roster with a hard cap
            Nylander (good for him) got more than FMV.. .that has to be made up somewhere else when you are on a budget...
            Its getting made up on depth on the back end....
            Last edited by Demographic Shift; Sun Jul 14th, 2019, 04:27 PM.

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            • Demographic Shift wrote: View Post

              Well there really are no winners if he sat the year out. .. Its like one of those when your drunk decisions that poll well in the moment .. but in the cold light of day .. look dumb. The Leafs lose a guy for a year who can play and Nylander loses a year and some serious cash he will never ever get back. Ever. Lose Lose.
              I agree, which is why it was super smart to offer Nylander the 7M over 7 so as to avoid such a mistake, considering it will prove to be a below market deal in a couple seasons.

              As for the depth point...
              There is only so much money to go around on a 20 man roster with a hard cap
              Nylander (good for him) got more than FMV.. .that has to be made up somewhere else when you are on a budget...
              Its getting made up on depth on the back end....
              Have you looked closely at the Leafs' cap? I've pored over it for hours. I'm well aware how much money there is to go around. Nylander got a reasonable deal. And they have room to add low end veteran defencemen if they wanted to do so. They do not seem to want to do so. Any used roster spot costs money - paying the minimum or close to it to a rookie versus paying the minimum or close to it to a veteran does not impact the cap much at all. Now, if you are talking about getting a real valuable vet, say at 3-4M like Hainsey somehow got, yeah, less money for Nylander would help. But unless you are squeezing him down to, say, 4.5M, you still don't have enough extra flexibility to make that bigger defensive move. The 6M payday vs 7M really wouldn't have helped much at all, with the Marner unknown. Once he's nailed down, maybe we can fret over a million or so here or there, but right now the uncertainty on his deal is greater than that so it's all in the wash.

              The reason the depth on the back end takes a hit is because the Leafs have decided (smartly) that high end talent on the front end is far more important than depth on the back end, and have paid appropriately for that thus far (we'll see where Marner comes in). Depth on the back end of the variety you are describing, throwaway vet of some sort, is of zero actual value - a bad veteran defenceman is just as harmful to your team as a bad young defenceman. Dubas seems to know that, and also that if he wants to add that sort of veteran, they'll be available later on once the Marner dust has settled - and if it settles fast enough, and comes in low enough, there might be money for something more than that sort of veteran.
              twitter.com/dhackett1565

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              • DanH wrote: View Post

                I agree, which is why it was super smart to offer Nylander the 7M over 7 so as to avoid such a mistake, considering it will prove to be a below market deal in a couple seasons.



                Have you looked closely at the Leafs' cap? I've pored over it for hours. I'm well aware how much money there is to go around. Nylander got a reasonable deal. And they have room to add low end veteran defencemen if they wanted to do so. They do not seem to want to do so. Any used roster spot costs money - paying the minimum or close to it to a rookie versus paying the minimum or close to it to a veteran does not impact the cap much at all. Now, if you are talking about getting a real valuable vet, say at 3-4M like Hainsey somehow got, yeah, less money for Nylander would help. But unless you are squeezing him down to, say, 4.5M, you still don't have enough extra flexibility to make that bigger defensive move. The 6M payday vs 7M really wouldn't have helped much at all, with the Marner unknown. Once he's nailed down, maybe we can fret over a million or so here or there, but right now the uncertainty on his deal is greater than that so it's all in the wash.

                The reason the depth on the back end takes a hit is because the Leafs have decided (smartly) that high end talent on the front end is far more important than depth on the back end, and have paid appropriately for that thus far (we'll see where Marner comes in). Depth on the back end of the variety you are describing, throwaway vet of some sort, is of zero actual value - a bad veteran defenceman is just as harmful to your team as a bad young defenceman. Dubas seems to know that, and also that if he wants to add that sort of veteran, they'll be available later on once the Marner dust has settled - and if it settles fast enough, and comes in low enough, there might be money for something more than that sort of veteran.
                So distilled down to its base elements.. and after some really good back and forth....it appears we don't share the same reasoning as to why the Leafs are short on money to add to the blueline.
                Fair...

                But on the bolded... we will very likely die on opposite sides of the table on that one. You can never have enough defensemen if your going to make a Cup run.
                Last edited by Demographic Shift; Mon Jul 15th, 2019, 06:53 PM.

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                • Demographic Shift wrote: View Post

                  So distilled down to its base elements.. and after some really good back and forth....it appears we don't share the same reasoning as to why the Leafs are short on money to add to the blueline.
                  Fair...

                  But on the bolded... we will very likely die on opposite sides of the table on that one. You can never have enough defensemen if your going to make a Cup run.
                  Tell that to... basically every Stanley Cup winner of the last decade. They all poured their resources into their forwards, had a few good defencemen, and otherwise made it work with depth pieces and call ups from the minors.

                  Meanwhile, it's not our reasoning that differs re: the available cap, but our awareness.
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                  • DanH wrote: View Post

                    Tell that to... basically every Stanley Cup winner of the last decade. They all poured their resources into their forwards, had a few good defencemen, and otherwise made it work with depth pieces and call ups from the minors.

                    Meanwhile, it's not our reasoning that differs re: the available cap, but our awareness.
                    Without defense in the playoffs you are nowhere...on this your dead ass wrong ..

                    2019.. The Blues had a whack of defensemen led by Pieterangelo and Pareykdo and Boumiester... they went 7 or 8 deep.. They had guys to rush the puck and break the cycles...
                    2018. The year of Ovie.. Washington had Carlson, Niskanen and Orlov.. last guy was Orpik and he was plus 17
                    2017/16 - the Penguins.. they weren't as good as the Blues..but they still had Letang and Matta and Ian Cole....
                    2015 /13/10 The Hawks even with Kane and Toews up front won it with Keith and Seabrook and Hjmarmalsson. Keith played 30 mins a game.
                    2014 /12 The Kings with Doughty Voynov, Scuderi , Green Muzzin and Martinez wore teams down...

                    Sorry Dan... again.. without defense your not going to win it or go on a deep run....
                    Tampa flamed out last year.. co incidently with Hedman on the limp.... funny how that works ....

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                    • Demographic Shift wrote: View Post

                      Without defense in the playoffs you are nowhere...on this your dead ass wrong ..

                      2019.. The Blues had a whack of defensemen led by Pieterangelo and Pareykdo and Boumiester... they went 7 or 8 deep.. They had guys to rush the puck and break the cycles...
                      2018. The year of Ovie.. Washington had Carlson, Niskanen and Orlov.. last guy was Orpik and he was plus 17
                      2017/16 - the Penguins.. they weren't as good as the Blues..but they still had Letang and Matta and Ian Cole....
                      2015 /13/10 The Hawks even with Kane and Toews up front won it with Keith and Seabrook and Hjmarmalsson. Keith played 30 mins a game.
                      2014 /12 The Kings with Doughty Voynov, Scuderi , Green Muzzin and Martinez wore teams down...

                      Sorry Dan... again.. without defense your not going to win it or go on a deep run....
                      Tampa flamed out last year.. co incidently with Hedman on the limp.... funny how that works ....
                      Yeah, so basically all of those teams, with the exception of the Blues, had several solid defenders - and a bunch of depth defenders whose quality was totally meh or worse. Having quality defenders? Absolutely crucial, especially the top 4. Your 6/7 guys? Largely irrelevant.
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                      • DanH wrote: View Post

                        Yeah, so basically all of those teams, with the exception of the Blues, had several solid defenders - and a bunch of depth defenders whose quality was totally meh or worse. Having quality defenders? Absolutely crucial, especially the top 4. Your 6/7 guys? Largely irrelevant.
                        To me the Blues had a lot of solid defensemen. If your going to make the run.. its a must have on the back end to have a shit tonne of guys who can either bring it up the ice or be cycle breakers down low... A 60 -40 split on skill vs muscle is ideal but you need guys who can do one or the other really well. And you need a lot of them.

                        You can't hold up guys anymore when the puck gets chipped in. When the puck gets chipped in the F1 and F2 forecheckers can come full speed from the red line and they can lay some hellacious shots on the blue line corps. Speed x Mass = Ouch. You need a shit tonne of guys on the back end to make it through the year and the playoffs. You can live with a Holl or a Marincin or a Rosen during the regular season.. but when the playoffs come you need guys who have been there. You need the depth. Whoever skates the cup around the ice at the end.. has those guys... none of them are meh .. if they were.. they'd be watching like the rest of us.


                        One last bet.... over under on Marners deal... 10M ...
                        I am going to say over ...
                        Whats your best guess...
                        Last edited by Demographic Shift; Wed Jul 17th, 2019, 05:13 PM.

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                        • Demographic Shift wrote: View Post

                          To me the Blues had a lot of solid defensemen. If your going to make the run.. its a must have on the back end to have a shit tonne of guys who can either bring it up the ice or be cycle breakers down low... A 60 -40 split on skill vs muscle is ideal but you need guys who can do one or the other really well. And you need a lot of them.

                          You can't hold up guys anymore when the puck gets chipped in. When the puck gets chipped in the F1 and F2 forecheckers can come full speed from the red line and they can lay some hellacious shots on the blue line corps. Speed x Mass = Ouch. You need a shit tonne of guys on the back end to make it through the year and the playoffs. You can live with a Holl or a Marincin or a Rosen during the regular season.. but when the playoffs come you need guys who have been there. You need the depth. Whoever skates the cup around the ice at the end.. has those guys... none of them are meh .. if they were.. they'd be watching like the rest of us.


                          One last bet.... over under on Marners deal... 10M ...
                          I am going to say over ...
                          Whats your best guess...
                          I think Marner ends up taking a bridge deal for 2-3 years, and it comes in well under 10M. But that's a complete guess, hard to predict these agents...

                          If you look closely at those rosters of champions, you'll find plenty of guys who had not been there before, and weren't thought of as anything more than meh before then - and only have that been-there solid reputation now because they were there for those championships.
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                          • DanH wrote: View Post

                            I think Marner ends up taking a bridge deal for 2-3 years, and it comes in well under 10M. But that's a complete guess, hard to predict these agents...

                            If you look closely at those rosters of champions, you'll find plenty of guys who had not been there before, and weren't thought of as anything more than meh before then - and only have that been-there solid reputation now because they were there for those championships.
                            Yeah.. hard to get a read on the tea leaves on Marner right now.... Thats as good a guess as any.




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                            • Going into this off-season I would not have bet on the Leafs re-acquiring David Clarkson. But looking at the deal it's a pretty brilliant piece of cap maneuvering to give the Leafs a longer timeline in the Marner negotiations, as well as a rock solid negotiating tactic of their best offer coming before the season starts while maintaining the ability to match an offer sheet if Marner can find one at that point.
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                              • All Quiet on the Marner front as July merges into August.
                                There will be no offer sheets forthcoming so its going to be the waiting game.
                                Its not just Marner getting iced... heres who else is in the same lifeboat.
                                • Brayden Point.
                                • Mikko Rantanen.
                                • Matthew Tkachuk.
                                • Brock Boeser.
                                • Charlie McAvoy.
                                • Kyle Connor.
                                • Patrik Laine.
                                • Zach Werenski
                                • Travis Konecny

                                .

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