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  • GOLDBLUM wrote: View Post
    Not certain if this is the same article but suspect it probably is... Read it today after someone shared it. Both links are from medium.com

    it’s a long read but a good read and very informative.

    https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-be9337092b56
    Nah the previous article that was taken down was talking about how it's just politicians trying to up one another with stricter measures to look good for next election. It argued that economic hit will affect more than the actual virus
    Only one thing matters: We The Champs.

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    • Sonny wrote: View Post
      My question is how long can we go on like this? 90% of the economy is shut down. Can this go on longer than 2 weeks? 1 month? at some point life needs to start again. No idea how long it will take until it's safe. But we can't live like this forever.
      We can't go long like that.

      What we need to do is to make sure we flatten the curve over the next 8-12 weeks, then we should move towards TEST and TRACE system until vaccine is ready to be used.

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      • Vaccines wont be ready until next year...

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        • MixxAOR wrote: View Post

          Nah the previous article that was taken down was talking about how it's just politicians trying to up one another with stricter measures to look good for next election. It argued that economic hit will affect more than the actual virus
          It was taken down because it turned out to be highly inaccurate. Good move by Medium. There’s way too much bs out there still about this not being serious. Trump is already talking about ending the isolation measures in 2 weeks down there to restart the economy. Madness.
          Definition of Statistics: The science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures.

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          • What makes the COVID-19 different. A nice summary of what it means for our hospital resources and staff.

            https://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2020...tem-collapses/

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            • Truth Teller wrote: View Post
              Vaccines wont be ready until next year...
              Are you saying we're gonna live like this for the next 12 months?

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              • Sonny wrote: View Post

                Are you saying we're gonna live like this for the next 12 months?
                It needs to be long (and hard) enough to blunt the spread while getting widespread testing in place and letting hospitals catch up and get prepared - probably/hopefully 8 weeks. Then the warm weather might help a bit, and we can isolate all known cases - if they haven't burnt out already in self-isolation. If all goes well we can try to get back to (a socially distant) normal and jumpstart the economy in June - remaining vigilant for another outbreak during the summer, and preparing for another battle come winter.

                No idea where Canada is at on the testing front though.

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                • rocwell wrote: View Post

                  We can't go long like that.

                  What we need to do is to make sure we flatten the curve over the next 8-12 weeks, then we should move towards TEST and TRACE system until vaccine is ready to be used.
                  Yes, test and trace is going to have to be targeted. Apparently limited resources for testing (I don't understand all the science, it's not just the material production of testing kits is also the biological resources involved) and apparently South Korea and China doing mass testing has burned up some of the existing resources and it's impossible for all countries to follow the same route. That's why most provinces are pre-screening and only doing targeted testing right now.

                  But there will need to be a heavy response now to flatten the curve then public health will basically be on high alert to identify cases early, target and trace and quarantine all contacts of confirmed cases to isolate and shut down future introductions of the virus to your local population ASAP. They're hoping those future responses will be able to be targeted and wont' need to be wide spread. And yes, all that is likely to continue for 12-24 months until we either have a vaccine or figure out some other way to solve this problem.

                  Once borders open up a bit and international travel resumes as much as it can, I expect 14 days self-isolation will just be par for the course as long as the virus is around.
                  Last edited by S.R.; Mon Mar 23, 2020, 12:49 PM.
                  "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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                  • The entire county of Canada has 1430 confirmed cases.

                    Certainly, Canada has been doing more testing than the U.S., relative to population size. More than 50,000 people have been tested for Covid-19 in Canada. Meanwhile, the COVID Tracking Project, a volunteer-run accounting of every coronavirus test administered in the U.S., was reporting a total of about 76,000 tests on Wednesday evening, for a population 10 times the size of Canada's.

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                    • jimmie wrote: View Post

                      It was taken down because it turned out to be highly inaccurate. Good move by Medium. There’s way too much bs out there still about this not being serious. Trump is already talking about ending the isolation measures in 2 weeks down there to restart the economy. Madness.
                      Despite the issues Medium should not have taken it down. Very good critiques were written (including Talib who has been all over this for months) and those could have posted alongside. Competing views are to be countered with valid criticism and evidence and people can decide which view is better. This also allows people to be better educated about the situation and better understand their views through testing and pushback. For example, it is a great case study in tail risk but to appreciate it fully you have to have the full counter-argument presented to test your own ideas against.

                      And, of course, things will have to be re-opened in short order. This cannot go on much longer. We needed this pause to get our health care systems ready and prevent them being overrun and the resultant chaos. Now that we have saved the health bureaucrats and the policy makers from their own incompetence, foolishness and complacency, our leaders (in whatever country) need to be compensating us for their lack of preparedness and their taking of our livelihoods and they also need to be ready to go with an exit strategy. An indefinite suspension of life is neither feasible nor desirable.

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                      • 14% of closed cases have been deaths ... up from like 6% only just over a week ago.

                        https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

                        Not to mention 30,000 cases worldwide over added each of the last 4 days.

                        Anyone who isn't taking this seriously is exactly who Darwin was talking about.

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                        • Joey wrote: View Post
                          14% of closed cases have been deaths ... up from like 6% only just over a week ago.

                          https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

                          Not to mention 30,000 cases worldwide added over each of the last 4 days.

                          Anyone who isn't taking this seriously is exactly who Darwin was talking about.
                          Compared to the other counttries, why are there so many deaths in Italy?
                          Last edited by Joey; Mon Mar 23, 2020, 01:45 PM.

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                          • Sonny wrote: View Post

                            Compared to the other counttries, why are there so many deaths in Italy?
                            They have alot of old people, and they like to socialize ... they had alot of soccer games prior to shutting them down so I assume it spread like wild fire there. This is all mostly speculation.

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                            • slaw wrote: View Post



                              And, of course, things will have to be re-opened in short order. This cannot go on much longer. We needed this pause to get our health care systems ready and prevent them being overrun and the resultant chaos. Now that we have saved the health bureaucrats and the policy makers from their own incompetence, foolishness and complacency, our leaders (in whatever country) need to be compensating us for their lack of preparedness and their taking of our livelihoods and they also need to be ready to go with an exit strategy. An indefinite suspension of life is neither feasible nor desirable.
                              Logic would say that is true, but the politicians keep extending the dates. It started at 14 days, then it was a month, then 2 months, now you're hearing people talk about this being the new normal for up to a year. This is scary stuff.
                              It's Klaw Season. Time to hunt.

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                              • G__Deane wrote: View Post
                                The entire county of Canada has 1430 confirmed cases.

                                Certainly, Canada has been doing more testing than the U.S., relative to population size. More than 50,000 people have been tested for Covid-19 in Canada. Meanwhile, the COVID Tracking Project, a volunteer-run accounting of every coronavirus test administered in the U.S., was reporting a total of about 76,000 tests on Wednesday evening, for a population 10 times the size of Canada's.
                                Yeah the volume of testing being performed is important in getting accurate data. If only symptomatic cases and/or high risk individuals are tested, that can potentially inflate the number of cases and fatalities per capita. In ~80% of the cases the virus is not strong enough to elicit symptoms. So in a theoretical world where 100% of people would be tested, the number (as % of the overall population) of hospital cases and fatalities would be shown to be lower.

                                There are probably hundreds of thousands of people worldwide contracting it, not knowing it, recovering from it, developing a natural immunity for the strain they caught, and moving on with life. That number will stay hidden though.

                                That testing data would be help governments measure/plan the response. Can't test everyone though, so the approach now is "I don't care if it's a fly or a rhino in front of that wall. Because I don't know, I'm bringing in the bazooka to take it down along with the wall too"
                                2019 NBA Champions. Glad to have doubted the doubters.

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