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  • slaw wrote: View Post

    This is why a shut down of the world is not going to last until June, let alone 2022. The purpose of what we are doing now was to flatten the curve but it seems to have shifted to trying to wipe out the virus or something. Lots of people are going to get sick and many will die, most of them the elderly but some not. At some point, we need different risk mitigation strategies that allow society to re-open or there will be unrest. None of this is especially difficult to figure out but I get the sense there are now some people who think we need to wipe out the virus or shelter at home until a vaccine is found - the first of which is insane and the second of which is naïve.
    Going to have to move in the Singapore direction at some point here. People will be willing to sacrifice some (more?) personal freedoms to get the economy opening up again is my guess.

    What's going to be dangerous is if the government gains control/authority and keeps it long term for the good of public health as a crisis response. 9/11 was terrible for that (in the name of public safety rather than public health).
    "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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    • Joey wrote: View Post

      I don't think this is what is being communicated though. At least not here in Canada. Trudeau has been pretty clear that the reopening of the economy will happen in stages, and be carefully managed, but I don't think anyone has said that the current extreme measures are what will be carried through as we wait those 12-18 months for a vaccine.
      Yes lots of intermediate measures are doable, half full restaurants, enforced social distancing, continued bans on really big gatherings/events, etc.

      Thing is even those will have a significant economic impact, if not quite as bad as the current non-essential shutdowns and shelter-in-place orders. I'm not sure people will have patience for even those half-measures for 12+ months, and any re-emergence of the virus and we have to revert back to shut downs.

      The protests against shutdowns will gain momentum.
      "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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      • S.R. wrote: View Post

        Going to have to move in the Singapore direction at some point here. People will be willing to sacrifice some (more?) personal freedoms to get the economy opening up again is my guess.

        What's going to be dangerous is if the government gains control/authority and keeps it long term for the good of public health as a crisis response. 9/11 was terrible for that (in the name of public safety rather than public health).

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        • S.R. wrote: View Post

          Yes lots of intermediate measures are doable, half full restaurants, enforced social distancing, continued bans on really big gatherings/events, etc.

          Thing is even those will have a significant economic impact, if not quite as bad as the current non-essential shutdowns and shelter-in-place orders. I'm not sure people will have patience for even those half-measures for 12+ months, and any re-emergence of the virus and we have to revert back to shut downs.

          The protests against shutdowns will gain momentum.
          Half full restaurants will go out of business. Many of them count on waiting lines on Fridays and Saturdays. And servers make a significant portion of their tips on those nights. How many facilities count on having good crowds? All entertainment venues, professional sports (and all of the ancillary economic activity that surrounds them), bars, exercise facilities, community centers, hair salons, community organizations like Lions, churches, and how many small communities have fairs, water (pumpkin, strawberry, fishing etc.) festivals, all kinds of things that require crowds to be a success and fund local charities/improvements/cultural activities?

          Life is going to be very different if these things can only come back gradually and there will be a lot of pain.

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          • Puffer wrote: View Post

            Half full restaurants will go out of business. Many of them count on waiting lines on Fridays and Saturdays. And servers make a significant portion of their tips on those nights. How many facilities count on having good crowds? All entertainment venues, professional sports (and all of the ancillary economic activity that surrounds them), bars, exercise facilities, community centers, hair salons, community organizations like Lions, churches, and how many small communities have fairs, water (pumpkin, strawberry, fishing etc.) festivals, all kinds of things that require crowds to be a success and fund local charities/improvements/cultural activities?

            Life is going to be very different if these things can only come back gradually and there will be a lot of pain.
            You're right. I don't know how a good segment of small business aren't going to be totally effed to be honest, especially businesses like restaurants. Huge companies can lay off half their people, tap into bailout money or wage subsidies, and find a way to survive while hopefully their employees collect benefits. Sucks for sure but for the most part you all make it through. But your local restaurant or bar hardly has anyone to lay off and has narrow margins to begin with. How do you make a couple months of lease payments on 30% of your normal revenue trying to do deliveries with your car.
            "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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            • Puffer wrote: View Post

              Half full restaurants will go out of business. Many of them count on waiting lines on Fridays and Saturdays. And servers make a significant portion of their tips on those nights. How many facilities count on having good crowds? All entertainment venues, professional sports (and all of the ancillary economic activity that surrounds them), bars, exercise facilities, community centers, hair salons, community organizations like Lions, churches, and how many small communities have fairs, water (pumpkin, strawberry, fishing etc.) festivals, all kinds of things that require crowds to be a success and fund local charities/improvements/cultural activities?

              Life is going to be very different if these things can only come back gradually and there will be a lot of pain.
              I agree, half measures won't be enough to reboot the economy back. What you highlighted are examples of business suffering a direct blow from lack of crowds, but there's also a massive chunk of the economy suffering an indirect and just as harmful blow:

              If all those business owners (and their staff) lose their disposable income, they're not travelling anymore (tourism tanks), they're not buying cars, phones, clothes, furniture, computers etc. so those industries tank; people will take their kids off hockey and baseball, they're staying at home more, so the childcare industry also tanks; With this massive number of people out of work, very few have the means to renovate their house or buy new homes, so construction and real estate also tank. There are many other examples.

              When there's no money from households and individuals to circulate and you're perpetually depending on the government, that's the definition of a massive recession/economic depression. Pretty much the only industries unaffected will be the ones fully funded and ran by the government (Health, Education & Law Enforcement), and even those can struggle in the long run, because they depend on people supporting them with their taxes, and if there's no one working there's no tax being paid out.

              The government and the press did a heck of a job in absolutely petrifying people about this, so even when things are officially normal, consumer confidence will be very low. If the government wants the economy to be back on its feet, when the time comes, it needs to actively encourage people to participate in society, get out and live again. Can't be a scardy-cat society forever. The reality is this will never go away completely, but with time, people will globally develop a natural immunity for this, the curve will be flat, risk will be lower etc.., People will then have to make a choice: continue to live cooped up in fear, or put this in the context of all the other perils that have been around for centuries and yet don't keep us from living a normal life.
              2019 NBA Champions. Glad to have doubted the doubters.

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              • Maybe the over crowded hospitals, people dying in nursing homes, at risk health providers and escalating death tolls have more to do with it then “ ...the government and the press”. The same orange haired incompetent who is blaming the press for holding the government accountable and publishing opinions from, you know, doctors is at the same time blaming China for being opaque and not having the same transparency he is endlessly complaining about in the US. Enough about the press! This thing will crash and burn if things are reopened too quickly. Reopen they must. But it has to be done carefully until there is better testing and lower case counts. Otherwise we are looking at a second wave, as they are now seeing in Singapore after they did an incredible job of subduing the first wave. You think people are afraid to go out now...imagine people wanting to go to public events if there is a second wave. Then there will be exponential economic damage. This is not the time to follow the colossal mismanagement to the south of us. The Canadian premiers are doing an admirable job... well, most of them are after a mixed start!
                Last edited by meductic; Thu Apr 16, 2020, 09:39 AM.

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                • meductic wrote: View Post
                  This is not the time to follow the colossal mismanagement to the south of us. The Canadian premiers are doing an admirable job... well, most of them are after a mixed start!
                  then thank god they have a competent leader, who actually cares about the nation, and its people he is steward of.

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                  • https://ca.yahoo.com/news/plan-comin...080004613.html

                    this could be a good thing after. doesn't matter how much you pay these homes. know a guy whose mom was in one. 8 grand a month in ottawa, she died in bed with bed sores.

                    big lesson here, "do everything to not lose your mobility". the people who work there know who can't move, or speak, and they will do less for them.

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                    • Miekenstien wrote: View Post
                      https://ca.yahoo.com/news/plan-comin...080004613.html

                      this could be a good thing after. doesn't matter how much you pay these homes. know a guy whose mom was in one. 8 grand a month in ottawa, she died in bed with bed sores.

                      big lesson here, "do everything to not lose your mobility". the people who work there know who can't move, or speak, and they will do less for them.
                      This is probably one of the more demanding and stressful jobs there is and I would say the vast majority of nurses and PSWs are competent and caring.Children also bare some of the responsibility to make sure Mom or Dad's standard of care is sufficient and it's amazing how many older folks get little to no family visits, even when there are some locally.

                      And yes, long term care homes can run 5-8K a month with meals, meds dispensing, nursing if needed, rooms with living and separate bedrooms, 3+ meals per day and housekeeping. Some of them are like 5 star resorts with excellent care and programs/exercise/entertainment.

                      The stories you hear about outright neglect from staff should be prosecuted to the utmost extent of the law.

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                      • COVID-19 could resemble a pandemic flu that returns every year: Harvard study

                        The study noted that without a vaccine, multiple rounds of social distancing would be required well into 2022

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                        • G__Deane wrote: View Post
                          COVID-19 could resemble a pandemic flu that returns every year: Harvard study

                          The study noted that without a vaccine, multiple rounds of social distancing would be required well into 2022
                          is harvard trustworthy anymore?
                          https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/28/polit...age/index.html

                          is the person doing this in any way connected to china, or the who?

                          "fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on you." lol.

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                          • Miekenstien wrote: View Post

                            is harvard trustworthy anymore?
                            https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/28/polit...age/index.html

                            is the person doing this in any way connected to china, or the who?

                            "fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on you." lol.
                            Did you just quote CNN? You don’t strike me as someone that would quote CNN when making a point. Lol

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                            • Aussie Shopper Tries To Return 4,800 Rolls Of Toilet Paper And 150 Litres Of Hand Sanitizer

                              https://www.ladbible.com/news/news-a...paper-20200414
                              2019 NBA Champions. Glad to have doubted the doubters.

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                              • Rudy Bargnani wrote: View Post

                                Did you just quote CNN? You don’t strike me as someone that would quote CNN when making a point. Lol
                                I thought I was quoting George W.

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