If Lowry walk (which he won't) which of these best available PG packages who you choose?

[ceez]

remember, MU basically shopped everyone on the team at some point. he knows their value and made comments about "putting moves off, for now at least". i can't quote him from memory, but that's essentially what he said.

he's rolling the dice with Lowry and if he signs him, fantastic, then he can move ahead with what he wants to do with the team.

but if lowry doesn't sign... he can always move a few pieces (DD, Ross, Amir) and remake the team. it's not like we're a contender, even with Lowry signed.

[enlightenment]

remember, MU basically shopped everyone on the team at some point. he knows their value and made comments about "putting moves off, for now at least". i can't quote him from memory, but that's essentially what he said.

he's rolling the dice with Lowry and if he signs him, fantastic, then he can move ahead with what he wants to do with the team.

but if lowry doesn't sign... he can always move a few pieces (DD, Ross, Amir) and remake the team. it's not like we're a contender, even with Lowry signed.

2 points in a game 7 away from the 2nd round however!

[ceez]

You mean trade Derozan? Because even your 'blow it up' should not include touching Val or Ross... I hope

i would prefer not to trade ross or val but i'm not MU

[ceez]

yep, but would you be there without lowry?

[enlightenment]

i would prefer not to trade ross or val but i'm not MU

So less 'blow up the team' more like, 'move derozan' ?

[stooley]

So less 'blow up the team' more like, 'move derozan' ?

and ideally amir.

[DanH]

and ideally amir.

Amir, DD, and probably some expirings like Hayes/Fields for some longer term bad contracts to bring in more picks. Also explore S+T for Vasquez as he probably has value on the market. I would look to keep Patterson, but if he wanted to go elsewhere, explore S+T for him too. Ideally you'd re-sign them and look to move them at the deadline.

[2kfeen]

trade amir johnson for a late 1st round pick
let vasquez walk
trade salmons, hansbrough for perkins + 1st + 2nd
sign a lot of projects/young players that have been underwhelming
trade for austin rivers
get tyler ennis
sign wesley johnson

get a good high draft pick 2015 and let the youngings like JV, Ross & especially DD develop

so we looking at in that case:

Ennis, Napier, Austin Rivers
Derozan, De Colo
Ross, Wes Johnson
Patrick Patterson, ???
JV, Perkins

that's sure to tank, while keeping talent
get good cap space and go for durant in 2016

[white men can't jump]

trade amir johnson for a late 1st round pick
let vasquez walk
trade salmons, hansbrough for perkins + 1st + 2nd
sign a lot of projects/young players that have been underwhelming
trade for austin rivers
get tyler ennis
sign wesley johnson

get a good high draft pick 2015 and let the youngings like JV, Ross & especially DD develop

so we looking at in that case:

Ennis, Napier, Austin Rivers
Derozan, De Colo
Ross, Wes Johnson
Patrick Patterson, ???
JV, Perkins

that's sure to tank, while keeping talent
get good cap space and go for durant in 2016

The only thing that deeply bothers me in this scenario is: why in the hell would we ever want to trade for Austin Rivers? He's such a useless player. I can't think of many players I would like to avoid more...maybe not any....

[ceez]

Hahaha yeah. I was reading his post, nodding to myself and then I got to the Rivers/Johnson part and was like "wait what? Good god nooooooo"

[2kfeen]

Austin Rivers is a perfect example of a buy low scenario.
We can get this guy probably for a 2nd round pick.
This guy was the #10 pick for a reason, but NO has not been using him properly at all.
No minutes, plus a lot of times Monty Willliams was using him as a spot up shooter when he should be pushing the rock.

For Wesley Johnson, you got a beefy SF that can play tight defense, while being able to shoot the 3 ball. He was a high draft pick, so he might able to play good

[JawsGT]

And Manu Ginobili was drafted in the 2nd round. It doesn't mean that drafting Manu Ginobilis in the 2nd round is now probable.

No one thought that Lowry reaching all star caliber was probable.

It happens sometimes, but lets not get carried away and dismiss Lowry's loss just because some local Canadian hero is available late in the draft and we hope that he's going to be oh so awesome.

I was gonna say second rounders instead of non-lottery, but I thought the probabilities would be too low. Not that it matters, because all that really matters is that talent is available everywhere in the draft in one can somehow make the right pick. If we are gonna base team building simply on probabilities than we are already fucked.

[white men can't jump]

Austin Rivers is a perfect example of a buy low scenario.
We can get this guy probably for a 2nd round pick.
This guy was the #10 pick for a reason, but NO has not been using him properly at all.
No minutes, plus a lot of times Monty Willliams was using him as a spot up shooter when he should be pushing the rock.

For Wesley Johnson, you got a beefy SF that can play tight defense, while being able to shoot the 3 ball. He was a high draft pick, so he might able to play good

He's not worth a 2nd rounder. He's not worth anything. He was the player I wanted the Raps to stay away from the most in that draft. He was drafted high because of his name. No other reason. A slow combo guard who is pretty much average at best at everything. There's no using him properly. He's a bad player.

*As for Johnson. Minimum value guy. He's not beefy. He's strong and lean, but he's not at all imposing and can't hold his own against larger players. He's also just been an ok shooter last year. A career .346%3pt is not bad, but nothing special. He's a 4th/5th wing at best, and only an ok option with a better signing or drafted rookie expected to be ahead of him...which I believe was part of your scenario, but I just wouldn't expect much from Johnson.

[JawsGT]

And I'll ask this again to everyone and anyone, although I'm not sure what thread I mentioned it before. If Lowry is the difference between going ahead with this team or tanking, as some have suggested, then why should we not absolutely, positively not offer Lowry a max contract? If losing Lowry means tank, then he should easily command $15+ mil per year, and anyone that feels he is that important should be more than willing to give it to him!

Otherwise, I feel any argument that person would make, is made simply to tank/rebuild, hit the draft (whatever you want to call it), and with or without Lowry would argue the same. I remember that most who are advocating rebuild in Lowry's potential absence are the same crowd that were advocating rebuild prior to last season.

So, Lowry really isn't the issue at all is it? Because if he was, then I am sure someone would have stepped up and said we should offer him a boatload of money to stay and continue to have a positive impact on the franchise.

[stooley]

And I'll ask this again to everyone and anyone, although I'm not sure what thread I mentioned it before. If Lowry is the difference between going ahead with this team or tanking, as some have suggested, then why should we not absolutely, positively not offer Lowry a max contract? If losing Lowry means tank, then he should easily command $15+ mil per year, and anyone that feels he is that important should be more than willing to give it to him!

Otherwise, I feel any argument that person would make, is made simply to tank/rebuild, hit the draft (whatever you want to call it), and with or without Lowry would argue the same. I remember that most who are advocating rebuild in Lowry's potential absence are the same crowd that were advocating rebuild prior to last season.

So, Lowry really isn't the issue at all is it? Because if he was, then I am sure someone would have stepped up and said we should offer him a boatload of money to stay and continue to have a positive impact on the franchise.

I'll try and break my thought process down.

The true cost of any move is the opportunity cost - or the next best alternative which is forsaken. So therefore, the cost of continuing to build on this core, is the ability to rebuild with new, high draft picks in the next few years.

The smart way to determine which path is more viable is to determine the odds of winning with each strategy - building and re-building (which, very obviously, is up for debate).

So the team has 4 paths which may be taken with regards to building, each of which provide different odds:

a. with Lowry on a reasonable contract
b. with Lowry on a max contract
c. without Lowry and without a suitable replacement
d. without Lowry but with a suitable replacement

In my opinion, options b and c provide worse odds at sustained success than a rebuild.

But on the other hand, options a and d, provide better odds.

So if we have to choose between options b, c or a rebuild, I go rebuild.

Now who constitutes a suitable replacement? I'd have to say Lawson if we don't give up too many assets, Bledsoe on a max, or Reggie Jackson without giving up too many assets.