Raptors Salary Cap Situation (and planning for the future)

[Bonus Jonas]

There are projections. 2020 is projected at 116M cap. 2021 based on my own projections (just following cap patterns) should be about 123M.

The cap hold for Lowry is his max contract (projected at 40.6M). But signing him first would reduce that number to whatever contract he signs. So really you just have to set aside what you intend to give him. Pascal's is 7.1M. FVV will be 14.4M. Delon can be extended at up to his max salary, as he's coming off a rookie scale deal. I don't imagine he'll get it, but he's eligible for up to 25.5M starting salary this summer (or a "maximum salary" extension, which would wait for next summer's cap level, making it a couple million higher). He can also wait for free agency next summer, at which point he is eligible for a 5 year deal at his max.

If JV opts in to next year, it's easy, as his cap hold will be 26.4M. If he opts out and re-signs to a one year deal, his cap hold the following summer would be 1.5 times his new salary. Another case where if his salary comes in lower than his cap hit, you just sign him before using cap space to reduce his impact on the cap.

Norm is owed 10.9M in 2020-21, and has a player option for 11.6M in 2021-22.

As of now, the only contracts on the books in summer 2020 are Norm (10.9M) and OG (3.9M). The cap is projected at 116M, and roster slot cap holds are projected at 900k.

Kawhi, if he re-signs next summer, will make 35.3M. So he, Norm and OG account for 50.1M, leaving 66M or so. A 7-9 year max salary slot would be 34.8M. So right there, even with just those three (when you add on 9 minimum salary slots for 8.1M), you only have room for one max and a 23M contract. Removing Norm entirely would get you one max (34.8M) and one near-max (33M). But that's all without keeping anyone else. And doesn't include your 2020 draft pick (which would be at least a little more than a roster slot).

sheesh.

roster slots go up to 12 since that’s the minimum you need correct?

so if we dump Norm, between OG, Kawhi and Pascal’s hold since the contract will probably be more expensive we’d have 46.3M committed (54.4M with holds). so that could essentially land 2 maxes

if we guess values
FVV at 12M at that point (similar to smart)
Delon at 9M (similar to FVV now)
JV at 16M (same as now)
And KLow at 25M (tough to guess depending on health, regression and possible paycut if we’re players in FA)
1M for a rookie (since it’s probably late 20’s and we can calculate it before they sign for the full 120%)

We end up with just about 10M in cap space.

Eliminating JV and KLow puts us at about 50M in cap space.

So a situation with a core of Kawhi, OG, Pascal, FVV, Delon, a rookie, JV and a max is possible. Interesting.

[Bonus Jonas]

Thanks a lot btw, don’t know where I would’ve gotten those answers anywhere else lol

[DanH]

sheesh.

roster slots go up to 12 since that’s the minimum you need correct?

so if we dump Norm, between OG, Kawhi and Pascal’s hold since the contract will probably be more expensive we’d have 46.3M committed (54.4M with holds). so that could essentially land 2 maxes

if we guess values
FVV at 12M at that point (similar to smart)
Delon at 9M (similar to FVV now)
JV at 16M (same as now)
And KLow at 25M (tough to guess depending on health, regression and possible paycut if we’re players in FA)
1M for a rookie (since it’s probably late 20’s and we can calculate it before they sign for the full 120%)

We end up with just about 10M in cap space.

Eliminating JV and KLow puts us at about 50M in cap space.

So a situation with a core of Kawhi, OG, Pascal, FVV, Delon, a rookie, JV and a max is possible. Interesting.

Roster slots go up to 12 because 14 is the minimum, and you also have the room MLE. So the 14th guy can be signed with the R-MLE, the 13th guy can be signed with your cap space, and there have to be 12 roster slots "filled" - either by contracts or cap holds.

As a note, the full 120% counts for rookies now even before they sign.

Your math seems about right for those scenarios. A lot of guesswork at this stage.

[DanH]

Thanks a lot btw, don’t know where I would’ve gotten those answers anywhere else lol

No problem.

[Bonus Jonas]

Roster slots go up to 12 because 14 is the minimum, and you also have the room MLE. So the 14th guy can be signed with the R-MLE, the 13th guy can be signed with your cap space, and there have to be 12 roster slots "filled" - either by contracts or cap holds.

As a note, the full 120% counts for rookies now even before they sign.

Your math seems about right for those scenarios. A lot of guesswork at this stage.

Huh. Might as well just make it so the contract is automatically the full 120% then.

Does anybody not get the full amount? Seems like a formality at this point

[DanH]

Huh. Might as well just make it so the contract is automatically the full 120% then.

Does anybody not get the full amount? Seems like a formality at this point

It is a formality, with very few exceptions. Teams do like to be able to build in soft bonuses into that 120% though - like fan event appearances, summer league participation, etc.

[inthepaint]

I hope Kawhi re-signs (I actually think that's not an unlikely scenario at all), but in the event he doesn't, it's interesting the path the team could take in the next 3 yrs of so. Huge variables in place on a 3yr path of course, but just for fun, this is something I imagined:

--2018-2019 Season: Finals run. If we make it and take a game or two out of golden state, that's a huge incentive for Kawhi to stick around, in which case we shoot for it again the year after. But if we don't and he bolts, then-

--Summer 2019: Try to move expiring deals of Lowry, JV, Ibaka and Miles (before they become UFA's in 2020), for prospect & picks as best as we can. Retain FVV, OG and Siakam.

--2019-2020 and 2020-2021 seasons: 2 yrs of rebuilding and clearing cap space, hopefully drafting as high as possible (aiming for backcourt players)

--2021 summer: Anthony Davis (PF), Rudy Gobert (C) and Giannis Atentekuonpo (SF) are all free agents. If we had the cap space and pull to sign 2 out of those 3 guys, that'd be an awesome frontcourt (to combine with the drafted back court players we would have drafted during the rebuild)

[DanH]

I'd think the best case 2021 scenario would be having our depth rotation players (though I think FVV will be gone by then), ideally two really good players from the draft, and enough cap room for one star signing.

Also, Davis is a free agent in 2020, I believe.

[inthepaint]

I'd think the best case 2021 scenario would be having our depth rotation players (though I think FVV will be gone by then), ideally two really good players from the draft, and enough cap room for one star signing.

Also, Davis is a free agent in 2020, I believe.

Yeah I think if we had OG, Siakam and FVV out of this group by then it would be nice (though I also think FVV will be gone by then).

Spotrac says Davis is a UFA in 2021. I'm wondering if we would have the ability to pay 2 of Davis/Giannis/Gobert while retaining OG and Siakam.

These 4 players would be the highest paid in the team (somewhat similar to what we have in Lowry, Leonard, JV and Ibaka now), and the rest of the roster (the backcourt), we'd have on rookie/mid deals from the rebuild. Lots of variables, and may not necessarily be the best way to structure the roster, but just wondering if would be attainable at all.

[DanH]

Davis has a player option in 20-21 that he will definitely opt out of.

Spotrac is garbage. Use Bball insiders or even better, Deeks' capulator at ShamSports.

Siakam is a free agent before 2021, so he'd have gotten paid. Same goes for any other young pieces we are keeping. Except OG, who will be a free agent that summer and will have a moderate cap hit. We will also still have Norm on the books, for the moment anyway. Two maxes is possible. But if their 1st rounders are in the top 5, those salaries aren't nothing, so it gets tricky to fit two pretty quickly.

[Rudy Bargnani]

Dan,

If the Raps could dump CJ with nothing coming back how much does it save the team in tax?

Let’s say to a team with room for a protected 2nd round pick. (Sacramento?)
Anyway, beyond the 8.3mill in salary if we can dump him for nothing what’s the net savings in tax?

Edit—I messed around with it a bit. Is it about 22 mill in taxes meaning dumping CJ for nothing would save $30 mill in total? If I did that correctly...that’s a lot of money.

[Superjudge]

How they gonna keep Kawhi AND sign Durant, it's going to be tight.

[sanyo]

How they gonna keep Kawhi AND sign Durant, it's going to be tight.

If Kawhi bolts we sign Durant

[DanH]

Dan,

If the Raps could dump CJ with nothing coming back how much does it save the team in tax?

Let’s say to a team with room for a protected 2nd round pick. (Sacramento?)
Anyway, beyond the 8.3mill in salary if we can dump him for nothing what’s the net savings in tax?

Edit—I messed around with it a bit. Is it about 22 mill in taxes meaning dumping CJ for nothing would save $30 mill in total? If I did that correctly...that’s a lot of money.

Yeah, that's about right. Except they need 14 players so you have to add 1.5M back in, making the salary savings 6.8M and the tax savings lower as well. Still a lot, of course. Will be even more significant next season where they could be even deeper in the tax.

[DanH]

How they gonna keep Kawhi AND sign Durant, it's going to be tight.

If Kawhi bolts we sign Durant

Neither of these things will happen. Both take significant effort (like, dramatic) to make them even possible next summer.

[planetmars]

Yeah, that's about right. Except they need 14 players so you have to add 1.5M back in, making the salary savings 6.8M and the tax savings lower as well. Still a lot, of course. Will be even more significant next season where they could be even deeper in the tax.

Are empty roster slots considered for tax purposes too? I figured that would be an exception, and thus not considered.

[DanH]

Are empty roster slots considered for tax purposes too? I figured that would be an exception, and thus not considered.

It's two different things. Empty roster slots are considered for cap room purposes in the off-season because you are allowed to be under 14 players in the off-season. But in-season, you have to have 14 players signed. Meaning if they magically make CJ disappear, they have to sign someone. Meaning adding at least the 1.5M minimum salary (for tax purposes). So they can't save all of CJ's money, not because of roster slot holds but because of the real salary of whatever 14th man they are mandated to sign.