ESPN Eastern conference projections

[DanH]

Oh well. I guess that's why we have Patterson

Indeed.

But no, Sully is not as bad as Scola, mobility-wise. Nowhere close. Plus, Scola with all his slowness played predominantly at PF. Sully get by all accounts will get a good chunk of his minutes as a backup C, where mobility will be less of an issue.

[GLF]

Indeed.

But no, Sully is not as bad as Scola, mobility-wise. Nowhere close. Plus, Scola with all his slowness played predominantly at PF. Sully get by all accounts will get a good chunk of his minutes as a backup C, where mobility will be less of an issue.

Very true. Well I hope you're right. As long as he's an improvement from Scola I'll be happy. Because from what you showed me Scola was a mess. It's crazy Casey let that Scola experiment go on for so long. And it's sad that he STILL isn't going to let Patterson start. Smh.

[Sinbad]

Because to me Jared is much worse fit on our team because we are going to play him alongside JV than he was on Boston. JV being an inside post player causes Casey to think that he HAS to make the PF that plays alongside JV a perimeter player. He did it to both Amir and Scola even though neither were known for their shooting ability. Sullinger is the same in the sense that he isn't a great perimeter shooter. So if that's how we end up using him mostly for spacing purposes I can see him being just as bad as Scola or just SLIGHTLY better. Because he isn't going to give you any defense so you have to try to at least us him correctly offensively. And we all know Casey won't be doing that.

All of this. Its why I can't get behind the signing as much as I want to, because we all know that Sullinger will be pigeonholed as a stretch 4 despite not being one. This is where DeRozan not being able to consistently stretch the floor causes a trickle down effect-- Casey won't play Sullinger in his traditional role as a paint presence.

[GLF]

All of this. Its why I can't get behind the signing as much as I want to, because we all know that Sullinger will be pigeonholed as a stretch 4 despite not being one. This is where DeRozan not being able to consistently stretch the floor causes a trickle down effect-- Casey won't play Sullinger in his traditional role as a paint presence.

That's my worry. And we all know it's gonna happen. And then his defense isn't good enough to make up for it like Amir's was for example. But as Dan H said he should be better than Scola and we got far with Scola so that's the positive way of thinking about it

[Apollo]

So they're saying essentially the Raptors maintain their position in the conference. I mean, yeah, sure this sounds reasonable except for the Scola bit.

[Chr1s1anL]

Let's not act like the genius Brad Stevens hasn't had Sully shooting a whole punch of 3s over the last 3 years.

[DanH]

I think Sully should be shooting threes (corner threes only). Or at least long two's. To stretch the floor. That's why he is here.

Not sure why everyone is enamoured with his post play. He's not very good in the post. About 0.8 PPP last season with only a 41% FG% from the post. In terms of team scoring, his team only managed about 0.6 PPP on plays where he got the ball in the post, so he's not creating offence from there either. Compare those numbers to JV's 0.87 PPP individually and 1.03 PPP team-wide on plays where he posts up. Silly to give post possessions to Sully when JV is out there.

Meanwhile, Sully shot 31% from 3 on catch and shoot opportunities (which is not great, but he is outside his range above the break, and it's better than his general 28%). And shot 44% on shots from 20-24 feet last season (ie corner three and long two range).

[golden]

I think Sully should be shooting threes (corner threes only). Or at least long two's. To stretch the floor. That's why he is here.

Not sure why everyone is enamoured with his post play. He's not very good in the post. About 0.8 PPP last season with only a 41% FG% from the post. In terms of team scoring, his team only managed about 0.6 PPP on plays where he got the ball in the post, so he's not creating offence from there either. Compare those numbers to JV's 0.87 PPP individually and 1.03 PPP team-wide on plays where he posts up. Silly to give post possessions to Sully when JV is out there.

Meanwhile, Sully shot 31% from 3 on catch and shoot opportunities (which is not great, but he is outside his range above the break, and it's better than his general 28%). And shot 44% on shots from 20-24 feet last season (ie corner three and long two range).

Disagree about stretching the floor being the main reason Sully's here. Sullinger is a versatile scorer and one of his biggest strengths is offensive rebounding and then finishing it nicely around the basket. Those OREB/putback skills complement DD & Lowry's low FG% game well, just like when we had the JV/Amir frontcourt.

Sure, we will see some Sully in the corner, and maybe even JV in the corner from time to time, but I suspect we also see a lot of Sully/Lowry screen & roll, with Sully hunting for OREBs off the Lowry miss.

[Chr1s1anL]

I thought this was interesting

[DanH]

I thought this was interesting

That's cute. They thought the numbers from an entire season lied because he got hot for a month (really, for the back half of November)? Ridiculous. Sully's splits last year, month by month 3PT%:

Nov: 36% <- right at the end of this the above video was made
Dec: 15%
Jan: 21%
Feb: 18%
Mar: 46%
Apr: 33%

Taking tiny samples and making arguments off them is a bad idea. There's a lot of variance to three point shooting. Patterson wasn't suddenly a bad shooter early last year. Sully wasn't suddenly a good one. His range simple doesn't extend out to the top of the arc. He's great a few feet in from there.

[DanH]

Disagree about stretching the floor being the main reason Sully's here. Sullinger is a versatile scorer and one of his biggest strengths is offensive rebounding and then finishing it nicely around the basket. Those OREB/putback skills complement DD & Lowry's low FG% game well, just like when we had the JV/Amir frontcourt.

Sure, we will see some Sully in the corner, and maybe even JV in the corner from time to time, but I suspect we also see a lot of Sully/Lowry screen & roll, with Sully hunting for OREBs off the Lowry miss.

Offensive rebounding is great and I definitely expect he will get his chances there. But in terms of fit on the floor, he has to spend a lot of time on the outside to leverage the strengths of the better players around him (JV and DD primarily). If Sully gets minutes with that Lowry+bench unit, he should definitely be setting screens and crashing the boards full time, but with the starters he should primarily be a jump shooter opening up the floor for the others (not exclusively, but primarily).

[Chr1s1anL]

I think Sully was mostly brought in for his rebounding, screen setting and play making skills. His big body is going to get Lowry/Deebo great looks. That Deebo/Amir hand off that we use to see might be back but, with Sully. Also we needed a forward that could do more than just shot when he gets the ball off the flare screen. Sully gives you a triple threat(drive, pass and shoot).

Kid is a really good passer.

[GLF]

Offensive rebounding is great and I definitely expect he will get his chances there. But in terms of fit on the floor, he has to spend a lot of time on the outside to leverage the strengths of the better players around him (JV and DD primarily). If Sully gets minutes with that Lowry+bench unit, he should definitely be setting screens and crashing the boards full time, but with the starters he should primarily be a jump shooter opening up the floor for the others (not exclusively, but primarily).

But does he really open up the floor when he shoots the 3 at 28% or whatever? I wouldn't run out to guard him there if that's the percentage he shoots. Looks like from the stats you posted he's a good midrange shooter so maybe he should forget the 3s and stick to that. Scola shot the 3 at 40 something percent for a good bit of the season and he still couldn't give us spacing. So I don't see how Sullinger missing more 3s than hitting them is going to space the floor. Maybe if he had a history of being a good 3 point shooter like Patterson that would be a different story. If I were guarding the Raptors I would love for Sullinger to continue to think he's Kyle Korver and keep jacking up 3s. Sometimes you're left open for a reason.

[DanH]

But does he really open up the floor when he shoots the 3 at 28% or whatever? I wouldn't run out to guard him there if that's the percentage he shoots. Looks like from the stats you posted he's a good midrange shooter so maybe he should forget the 3s and stick to that. Scola shot the 3 at 40 something percent for a good bit of the season and he still couldn't give us spacing. So I don't see how Sullinger missing more 3s than hitting them is going to space the floor. Maybe if he had a history of being a good 3 point shooter like Patterson that would be a different story. If I were guarding the Raptors I would love for Sullinger to continue to think he's Kyle Korver and keep jacking up 3s. Sometimes you're left open for a reason.

Again, though, he exclusively shot from above the break the past few seasons. The Raptors' offensive system pushes a lot of PF 3 point shots into the corner (Scola took 50% of his threes from the corner, Patterson took 40% of his from there). Sullinger took 2% of his threes from the corner. That's not a typo, two percent.

Corner threes are 22' from the rim. Above the break threes are 24'. Sullinger shot 44% from 20-24 feet last year. And 29% on shots from >24 feet (not including his three half-to-full court heaves). So that will make a huge difference for him.

[DanH]

As for Sully being able to provide spacing Scola didn't - Scola could hit threes but wouldn't take them. Sully takes them even when he can't hit them (especially prior to last season) - if the Raps start finding him in the corner where he can hit them, I doubt willingness to shoot (and therefore to make the defence defend him out there) will be an issue for Sully.