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  • #31
    DanH wrote: View Post
    You do know that two of the past three seasons JV has played 77+ games, yeah? He missed two games and one game, two and three years ago. 500:1 may be a little excessive...
    Not with the minutes he is going to log his year.. so no... I don't think 500:1 is excessive. JV isn't soft or injury prone.. its just the heavy going that takes its toll. Hell they may rest him for a game or two and he won't play.

    So I will take the bet... he doesn't make the 77 games with you...

    We can cycle back in April to see who smiles knowingly....
    Last edited by Demographic Shift; Mon Sep 26, 2016, 10:03 PM.
    There's no such thing as a 2nd round bust.
    - TGO

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    • #32
      Demographic Shift wrote: View Post
      Not with the minutes he is going to log his year.. so no... I don't think 500:1 is excessive. JV isn't soft or injury prone.. its just the heavy going that takes its toll. Hell they may rest him for a game or two and he won't play.

      So I will take the bet... he doesn't make the 77 games with you...

      We can cycle back in April to see who smiles knowingly....
      I didn't say I'd bet on him breaking 77 games. I said 500:1 is a ridiculous level of confidence to have in something that happened 2 times in the past three years not happening. Last year, when he got hurt, he played fewer MPG than the two years where he barely missed any time, so I don't buy your logic at all on that front. Two years ago he topped 28 MPG and missed only a single game.

      You are right that there is a decent chance he misses more than 5 games. Your are dead wrong that it's a sure bet.
      twitter.com/dhackett1565

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      • #33
        DanH wrote: View Post
        I didn't say I'd bet on him breaking 77 games. I said 500:1 is a ridiculous level of confidence to have in something that happened 2 times in the past three years not happening. Last year, when he got hurt, he played fewer MPG than the two years where he barely missed any time, so I don't buy your logic at all on that front. Two years ago he topped 28 MPG and missed only a single game.

        You are right that there is a decent chance he misses more than 5 games. Your are dead wrong that it's a sure bet.
        It does reflect my level of confidence/insight/clairvoyance and a sure bet on this one... . .. 500 to 1... for the reasons stated in posts 27 and 31.

        Let me expand a little ...

        As the east gets better the number of big men in the east are also a little older.. a little better than last year and are proliferating.

        Drummond is now 23 and meaner in Detroit.. The right Lopez weights in at a gazillon pounds in Brooklyn...Dwight is net new in Atlanta and likes to muck it up...Whiteside is still in Miami.. Hibbert who scraps hard with JV is now in Charlotte... Big Al is in Indy.. Mahini now joins Gortat in Washington.. Biz and those elbows and knees now plays against us in Orlando.. Noah is in in Gotham..and the sixers boast both Embiid and Okafor..the wrong lopez is in chicago by way of gotham and while mascots fear him more he is still a load in the paint...and Horford.. no scratch that one...

        If your view is that its excessive then you'd bet the over, which is what I thought you were saying by asking me if I knew that he played more than 77 in two of the last three years (which I didn't btw) but doesn't change my view that its a bar brawl every night in the paint and there are lots of bigger and meaner brawlers out there this year in the east and we play em 4 times each.
        Last edited by Demographic Shift; Mon Sep 26, 2016, 10:45 PM.
        There's no such thing as a 2nd round bust.
        - TGO

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        • #34
          Demographic Shift wrote: View Post
          It does reflect my level of confidence/insight/clairvoyance and a sure bet on this one... . .. 500 to 1... for the reasons stated in posts 27 and 31.

          Let me expand a little ...

          As the east gets better the number of big men in the east are also a little older.. a little better than last year and are proliferating.

          Drummond is now 23 and meaner in Detroit.. The right Lopez weights in at a gazillon pounds in Brooklyn...Dwight is net new in Atlanta and likes to muck it up...Whiteside is still in Miami.. Hibbert who scraps hard with JV is now in Charlotte... Big Al is in Indy.. Mahini now joins Gortat in Washington.. Biz and those elbows and knees now plays against us in Orlando.. Noah is in in Gotham..and the sixers boast both Embiid and Okafor..

          If your view is that its excessive then you'd bet the over, which is what I thought you were saying by asking me if I knew that he played more than 77 in two of the last three years (which I didn't btw) but doesn't change my view that its a bar brawl every night in the paint and there are lots of bigger and meaner brawlers out there this year in the east and we play em 4 times each.
          I will bet the over if you stick by those 500:1 odds. I bet one dollar. Will you put 500 on the line?

          Also, I find your list of bruising big men pretty funny since most either moved from one East team to another, are still on the same teams as before, or were previously on East teams during those 80+ game seasons by JV I quoted.
          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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          • #35
            Demographic Shift wrote: View Post
            It does reflect my level of confidence/insight/clairvoyance and a sure bet on this one... . .. 500 to 1... for the reasons stated in posts 27 and 31.

            Let me expand a little ...

            As the east gets better the number of big men in the east are also a little older.. a little better than last year and are proliferating.

            Drummond is now 23 and meaner in Detroit.. The right Lopez weights in at a gazillon pounds in Brooklyn...Dwight is net new in Atlanta and likes to muck it up...Whiteside is still in Miami.. Hibbert who scraps hard with JV is now in Charlotte... Big Al is in Indy.. Mahini now joins Gortat in Washington.. Biz and those elbows and knees now plays against us in Orlando.. Noah is in in Gotham..and the sixers boast both Embiid and Okafor..the wrong lopez is in chicago by way of gotham and while mascots fear him more he is still a load in the paint...and Horford.. no scratch that one...

            If your view is that its excessive then you'd bet the over, which is what I thought you were saying by asking me if I knew that he played more than 77 in two of the last three years (which I didn't btw) but doesn't change my view that its a bar brawl every night in the paint and there are lots of bigger and meaner brawlers out there this year in the east and we play em 4 times each.
            3 guys you're forgetting:

            1. Vucevic, who IMO continues to fly under the radar at C. Don't know why.

            2. Horford/Whatever C Boston plays, including Olynyk with his perimeter game.

            3. Robin Lopez is no slouch on D himself and has given JV issues in the past. Chicago is a tricky team... if everything meshes well, they could shock & surprise.
            Axel wrote:
            Now Cody can stop posting about this guy and we have a poster to blame if anything goes wrong!!
            KeonClark wrote:
            We won't hear back from him. He dissapears into thin air and reappears when you least expect it. Ten is an enigma. Ten is a legend. Ten for the motherfucking win.
            KeonClark wrote:
            I can't wait until the playoffs start.

            Until then, opinions are like assholes. Everyone has one and they most often stink

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            • #36
              DanH wrote: View Post
              I will bet the over if you stick by those 500:1 odds. I bet one dollar. Will you put 500 on the line?

              Also, I find your list of bruising big men pretty funny since most either moved from one East team to another, are still on the same teams as before, or were previously on East teams during those 80+ game seasons by JV I quoted.
              Not sure why you find it funny. The quick list illustrates just how many big bodies are out there on a nightly basis.

              Yes some of the guys are the same names as last year.. but as each year goes by all of these guys put on a bit more weight and add more old man strength. You can't help but get nicked up to the point where something gives and you get hurt.

              Some of the names such as Howard are net new as he has been out of the east for at least 3 years..Embiid is new (how long he lasts is up for debate with his back and feet). The wrong Lopez is newish as this is year two in from Portland.

              I wish I had a spare 500 to put in escrow but I don't. Still the 500:1 is very reflective of the probability that JV won't see north of 77 beside GP.


              What are the odds that either of Pascal Siakam or Jake Poeltl will play more than 200 minutes this year ?
              Last edited by Demographic Shift; Mon Sep 26, 2016, 11:53 PM. Reason: added the next odds question
              There's no such thing as a 2nd round bust.
              - TGO

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              • #37
                500:1.... 18 C's played 77+ games last season, out of a presumed 60 planned rotational C's. 8 starting C's did it out of 30. So the odds league wide are between 2:1 and 3:1.
                twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                • #38
                  DanH wrote: View Post
                  500:1.... 18 C's played 77+ games last season, out of a presumed 60 planned rotational C's. 8 starting C's did it out of 30. So the odds league wide are between 2:1 and 3:1.
                  Boom.

                  What are the odds demographic shift responds again an DanH obliterates him again? Just kidding, fun debate.

                  What are the odds Powell shoots >37% from 3?
                  Sunny ways my friends, sunny ways
                  Because its 2015

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                  • #39
                    Uncle_Si wrote: View Post
                    Boom.

                    What are the odds demographic shift responds again an DanH obliterates him again? Just kidding, fun debate.

                    What are the odds Powell shoots >37% from 3?
                    70:30 since he's a "jim-a-holic" with a focused mindset,we can count on Powell continue his rise including 3 shot percentage.
                    What are the odds Raps acquire a rim protector before this season's trade deadline.

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                    • #40
                      Deino wrote: View Post
                      70:30 since he's a "jim-a-holic" with a focused mindset,we can count on Powell continue his rise including 3 shot percentage.

                      What are the odds Raps acquire a rim protector before this season's trade deadline.
                      Very low - 0%-5%.

                      Rim protectors aren't cheap, and acquiring one would carry a significant cost. Since we have JV, we aren't likely making a big splash at the C position this year. Not many PFs or SFs are really rim protectors and those are the positions most likely to be addressed by trades.


                      What are the odds that Lowry and Demar are both in top 15 MPG this year? (both were top 10 last year)
                      Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                      If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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                      • #41
                        Axel wrote: View Post
                        Very low - 0%-5%.

                        Rim protectors aren't cheap, and acquiring one would carry a significant cost. Since we have JV, we aren't likely making a big splash at the C position this year. Not many PFs or SFs are really rim protectors and those are the positions most likely to be addressed by trades.


                        What are the odds that Lowry and Demar are both in top 15 MPG this year? (both were top 10 last year)
                        75%

                        What are the Odds we don't upgrade the starting PF by the trade deadline?

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                        • #42
                          DanH wrote: View Post
                          500:1.... 18 C's played 77+ games last season, out of a presumed 60 planned rotational C's. 8 starting C's did it out of 30. So the odds league wide are between 2:1 and 3:1.
                          Were real life so easy to predict using algorithms and statistical probability eh ?
                          Not that its a good thing but JV is highly unlikely to get 77 Games Played this year. So its still 500:1
                          I will call you when he misses game 5


                          Uncle_Si wrote: View Post
                          Boom.

                          What are the odds demographic shift responds again an DanH obliterates him again? Just kidding, fun debate.

                          What are the odds Powell shoots >37% from 3?
                          Probably 100% since I am responding now after a few days off ...
                          I hardly feel obliterated by another guys opinion btw .. its just different...
                          There's no such thing as a 2nd round bust.
                          - TGO

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                          • #43
                            Demographic Shift wrote: View Post
                            Were real life so easy to predict using algorithms and statistical probability eh ?
                            Not that its a good thing but JV is highly unlikely to get 77 Games Played this year. So its still 500:1
                            I will call you when he misses game 5
                            Recommend you wait until he misses game 6.

                            JV is indeed unlikely to get to 77 games. He has about a 25-35% chance of doing so, based on league wide trends. Him not doing so will say nothing about the validity of your 500:1.
                            twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                            • #44
                              DanH wrote: View Post
                              Recommend you wait until he misses game 6.

                              JV is indeed unlikely to get to 77 games. He has about a 25-35% chance of doing so, based on league wide trends. Him not doing so will say nothing about the validity of your 500:1.
                              This horse is officially dead...
                              Two points of view that agree on an outcome but differing on the odds of that outcome...

                              What are the odds that aggregated games missed by the Knicks superteam trioka ===> Rose / Anthony / Noah are greater than 30 ?
                              There's no such thing as a 2nd round bust.
                              - TGO

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                              • #45
                                Demographic Shift wrote: View Post
                                This horse is officially dead...
                                Two points of view that agree on an outcome but differing on the odds of that outcome...

                                What are the odds that aggregated games missed by the Knicks superteam trioka ===> Rose / Anthony / Noah are greater than 30 ?
                                100%.

                                What are the odds Bruno makes more than 7 threes in the regular season. (No, preseason doesn't count)
                                Sunny ways my friends, sunny ways
                                Because its 2015

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