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Who is the Most Overrated Team in the East ..aka.. Why Boston Sux.

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  • golden wrote: View Post
    I really want to believe, but 538 also predicted that Elfrid Payton would be a superstar.
    One of the interesting things about this 538 rating is that they found in past seasons that while their ratings system worked well for the regular season, it didn't capture how much past playoff success seemed to factor into playoff winning. So they added that 'playoff adjustment' column, which gives a huge boost to teams like Cavs, Warriors, and to a lesser extent Spurs, Rockets, Thunder. Essentially this model already has a huge chunk of "yeah, but the Cavs always turn it on in the playoffs" baked in. And yet it still gives the Raptors by far the best chance of coming out of the east. That said, I expect the Raptors odds to start dropping once Cleveland rises stops playing sub .500 basketball.

    But I bet this must piss Celtics fans off so much. I mean, it gives the 76ers better odds of winning a championship than the Celtics.

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    • 20% is much too high for the Raptors, but it's fun anyway.

      The other thing is these are only odds - sometimes you have something like Trump winning the election and people think these probability predictions were all wrong. They weren't wrong, sometimes the unlikely outcomes actually happen.

      This is probably the least interested I've been in an AS weekend. I was enjoying watching the Raptors run up 30 pt leads in the 4th quarter much more than I enjoy AS games.
      "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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      • octothorp wrote: View Post
        One of the interesting things about this 538 rating is that they found in past seasons that while their ratings system worked well for the regular season, it didn't capture how much past playoff success seemed to factor into playoff winning. So they added that 'playoff adjustment' column, which gives a huge boost to teams like Cavs, Warriors, and to a lesser extent Spurs, Rockets, Thunder. Essentially this model already has a huge chunk of "yeah, but the Cavs always turn it on in the playoffs" baked in. And yet it still gives the Raptors by far the best chance of coming out of the east. That said, I expect the Raptors odds to start dropping once Cleveland rises stops playing sub .500 basketball.

        But I bet this must piss Celtics fans off so much. I mean, it gives the 76ers better odds of winning a championship than the Celtics.
        The biggest problem with the Raps projecting so high is that alot of these models are ultimately based on point differential / ORTG / DRTG, which has been pumped up by our bench blowing out other team's benches and then sustaining the margins, so we don't get into clutch situations. Given that stars and starters play more minutes in the NBA playoffs, the Raps statistical differential has the potential to be the most fool's gold stat of all time.

        If somebody could show me some examples where a team got to the NBA finals based on the strength of a superior group of 4-5 bench players, rather than having better elite starters, then I would feel a lot better about these optimistic statistical projection models.

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        • golden wrote: View Post
          The biggest problem with the Raps projecting so high is that alot of these models are ultimately based on point differential / ORTG / DRTG, which has been pumped up by our bench blowing out other team's benches and then sustaining the margins, so we don't get into clutch situations. Given that stars and starters play more minutes in the NBA playoffs, the Raps statistical differential has the potential to be the most fool's gold stat of all time.

          If somebody could show me some examples where a team got to the NBA finals based on the strength of a superior group of 4-5 bench players, rather than having better elite starters, then I would feel a lot better about these optimistic statistical projection models.
          This is a great question heading into the home stretch. How's the bench mob going to match-up/produce vs. starters more and other benches less? How are other teams going to gameplan to disrupt the bench's productivity? They're going to get a lot more defensive attention in the playoffs.
          "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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          • Our real ambassador

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            • S.R. wrote: View Post
              This is a great question heading into the home stretch. How's the bench mob going to match-up/produce vs. starters more and other benches less? How are other teams going to gameplan to disrupt the bench's productivity? They're going to get a lot more defensive attention in the playoffs.
              Our bench is doing a lot of damage due to energy and simply outworking the other teams. But, superstars coast through an NBA season and crank up the effort in the playoffs. Those transition buckets our bench is getting will dry up when opposition stars sprint back on defense. Those wide open 3's that Freddy's getting now will be contested in the playoffs. This is why most of the former players who have won championships doesn't trust the Raps. They know all about turning it on when the playoffs start. I don't think they need to game-plan for our bench, as much as they need to match our energy and effort.

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              • Charles is the true ambassador of this franchise man. I don't know what Kyle Lowry ever did to Shaq though. So much hatred.





                Mamba Mentality

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                • TRex wrote: View Post
                  Charles is the true ambassador of this franchise man. I don't know what Kyle Lowry ever did to Shaq though. So much hatred.
                  Shaq is a bit.. well a lot of a dingus....He chriped on Javale McGee for a year before he got told to button it....
                  So he spreads it around....
                  Who knows.. maybe he still has Kobe issues and picks on hard nosed take no crap guards now instead of lame big men like McGee...
                  Either way... he looks small
                  Last edited by Demographic Shift; Sat Feb 17, 2018, 02:57 PM.
                  There's no such thing as a 2nd round bust.
                  - TGO

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                  • Demographic Shift wrote: View Post
                    Shaq is a bit.. well a lot of a dingus....He chriped on Javale McGee for a year before he got told to button it....
                    So he spreads it around....
                    Who knows.. maybe he still has Kobe issues and picks on hard nosed take no crap guards now instead of lame big men like McGee...
                    Either way... he looks small
                    Was he actually told to stop picking on McGee? Lol

                    Sent from my LG G6 using Tapatalk

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                    • Nilanka wrote: View Post
                      Was he actually told to stop picking on McGee? Lol

                      Sent from my LG G6 using Tapatalk
                      Yeah... the story got spun that Shaq's incessant harping on McGee's brain cramps during games was re inforcing the sterotype of the dumb black athlete.... not sure if it was the network or the league that put up the cease and desist order...

                      http://theundefeated.com/features/sh...-from-the-top/
                      Last edited by Demographic Shift; Sat Feb 17, 2018, 06:21 PM.
                      There's no such thing as a 2nd round bust.
                      - TGO

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                      • Demographic Shift wrote: View Post
                        Yeah... the story got spun that Shaq's incessant harping on McGee's brain cramps during games was re inforcing the sterotype of the dumb black athlete.... not sure if it was the network or the league that put up the cease and desist order...
                        Wow, quite the reach if you ask me.

                        By that logic, every time Shaq praises LeBron, isn't that perpetuating that brilliant black athlete stereotype?

                        PC culture is the worst.

                        Sent from my LG G6 using Tapatalk

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                        • I think we win it this season.

                          And by "it" I mean the title. I'm a pessimist normally but this is the year. Things just seem to be shifting a bit in the right ways. I think Houston upsets Golden State and then OG puts Harden in his pocket in the finals en route to a Raptors win in 6.

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                          • Shaolin Fantastic wrote: View Post
                            I think we win it this season.

                            And by "it" I mean the title. I'm a pessimist normally but this is the year. Things just seem to be shifting a bit in the right ways. I think Houston upsets Golden State and then OG puts Harden in his pocket in the finals en route to a Raptors win in 6.
                            Cute fan fiction
                            9 time first team all-RR, First Ballot Hall of Forum

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                            • Shaolin Fantastic wrote: View Post
                              I think we win it this season.

                              And by "it" I mean the title. I'm a pessimist normally but this is the year. Things just seem to be shifting a bit in the right ways. I think Houston upsets Golden State and then OG puts Harden in his pocket in the finals en route to a Raptors win in 6.
                              I think it's hard to imagine the stars aligning better for the Raptors than they seem to be right now (well, except for Cavs not retooling their crappy roster). If you can't get behind the idea of the Raptors having a title shot this year, then what's even the point of being a sports fan?

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                              • Shaolin Fantastic wrote: View Post
                                I think we win it this season.

                                And by "it" I mean the title. I'm a pessimist normally but this is the year. Things just seem to be shifting a bit in the right ways. I think Houston upsets Golden State and then OG puts Harden in his pocket in the finals en route to a Raptors win in 6.
                                I swear I've only read pessimistic posts from you in the past. Glad to see the change of heart

                                I can only agree. Even with Cavs moves I think we're better overall, but it will be vs Cavs, LBJ, refs and NBA to get there. If Houston is the opponent we have a fighting chance... if its GSW, there's not much of a chance - even though we play them tight all the time.

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