Who is the Most Overrated Team in the East ..aka.. Why Boston Sux.

[octothorp]

I think you invented a new statistical correlation. You should have kept quiet about it and placed some bets :-)

Encouraging.

I don't think there's anything really revolutionary in this, it's basically isolating some stuff that goes into other metrics; teams that do well with this metric will also automatically do well in point-differential, which has also proved to be a very good indicator of future success. I also think that because sports are so complex, simple models will always end up with a lot of exceptions, moreso than well-designed complex models. But I think this may potentially be better than a lot of other simple models.

If you were to rank the east right now on this model, it's:
Toronto: .462
Boston: .298
Indiana: .285
Washington: .277
Milwaukee: .222
Philadelphia: .211
Cleveland: .203
Miami: .125
--
(Detroit: .222)

In addition to Toronto having a huge advantage, this also shows Indiana as being the most dangerous of the potential low seeds. Also, Miami is absolute trash by comparison. For the most part this reflects the point differential seedings, with the exception of Philly, who point differential would suggest as being in the same tier as Washington and Indiana, but NCW% suggests is in a lower tier. As well, it suggests a much closer grouping between Boston, Indiana, and Washington, rather than Boston ahead in a tier of its own. I'll be curious to see if Cleveland is able to improve their score through the rest of the season, because right now this metric gives them little chance of even getting to the conference finals (especially with the current standings of a matchup against Indiana). To be honest, I've only really looked so far at how this metric works for top seeds... I have no idea if it's got any meaning for lower seeds.

But when I've got some time I'd like to do a deeper analysis on this, I'm trying to figure out the most useful way of testing it. The most thorough way would be to take every playoff series of recent years and compare the W%, NCW%, and point differential, and see how they compare in their predictive abilities.

[Demographic Shift]

Wonder how much IT will get next season? Denver could still use a PG. Not sure what their cap situation is like, but it wouldn't surprise me if IT got only a mid level deal. There is no way he's getting anything in the $20M or higher range unless a team is willing to give him a 1 year deal like Philly did with Redick.

Not as much as was going to come his way if he remained healthy and Kyrie didn't put out the 9-1-1- to get out of Cleveland...

That hip injury and the trade to Clevleand likely cost IT 50 M as my SWAG...

My bet.. and its only a guess.. is that he gets some one to give him 3 or 4 years between 50 and 60M... maybe....

If things had gone on in Beantown as they were.... No Kyrie trade.. Then Ainge would likely have had to pay him the Lowry deal at 90 for 3 or possible 4 years at 100M.....

A real gap to what he is going to get... but its all guessing as the landscape and circumstances have changed....

[Puffer]

Not as much as was going to come his way if he remained healthy and Kyrie didn't put out the 9-1-1- to get out of Cleveland...

That hip injury and the trade to Clevleand likely cost IT 50 M as my SWAG...

My bet.. and its only a guess.. is that he gets some one to give him 3 or 4 years between 50 and 60M... maybe....

If things had gone on in Beantown as they were.... No Kyrie trade.. Then Ainge would likely have had to pay him the Lowry deal at 90 for 3 or possible 4 years at 100M.....

A real gap to what he is going to get... but its all guessing as the landscape and circumstances have changed....

Kind of crazy watching guys in the NBA shoot themselves in the foot for tens of millions of dollars. Maybe I should have said "kind of fun."

[KeonClark]

San Antonio would be interesting for IT. If Stevens could do it, so could Pop.

But then again he wants the "brinks truck"..clippers don't wanna do a full rebuild..kings always do random shit..knickerbockers too I could see

[planetmars]

San Antonio would be interesting for IT. If Stevens could do it, so could Pop.

But then again he wants the "brinks truck"..clippers don't wanna do a full rebuild..kings always do random shit..knickerbockers too I could see

You can always count on the Kings or the Knicks to do something stupid. 28 other GM's most love those two teams.

[Demographic Shift]

I don't think there's anything really revolutionary in this, it's basically isolating some stuff that goes into other metrics; teams that do well with this metric will also automatically do well in point-differential, which has also proved to be a very good indicator of future success. I also think that because sports are so complex, simple models will always end up with a lot of exceptions, moreso than well-designed complex models. But I think this may potentially be better than a lot of other simple models.

If you were to rank the east right now on this model, it's:
Toronto: .462
Boston: .298
Indiana: .285
Washington: .277
Milwaukee: .222
Philadelphia: .211
Cleveland: .203
Miami: .125
--
(Detroit: .222)

In addition to Toronto having a huge advantage, this also shows Indiana as being the most dangerous of the potential low seeds. Also, Miami is absolute trash by comparison. For the most part this reflects the point differential seedings, with the exception of Philly, who point differential would suggest as being in the same tier as Washington and Indiana, but NCW% suggests is in a lower tier. As well, it suggests a much closer grouping between Boston, Indiana, and Washington, rather than Boston ahead in a tier of its own. I'll be curious to see if Cleveland is able to improve their score through the rest of the season, because right now this metric gives them little chance of even getting to the conference finals (especially with the current standings of a matchup against Indiana). To be honest, I've only really looked so far at how this metric works for top seeds... I have no idea if it's got any meaning for lower seeds.

But when I've got some time I'd like to do a deeper analysis on this, I'm trying to figure out the most useful way of testing it. The most thorough way would be to take every playoff series of recent years and compare the W%, NCW%, and point differential, and see how they compare in their predictive abilities.

LIke this... you put a lot of work and thought into proving the old axiom that "if your playing in a lot more close games than you should its because your not good enough to take teams out early"....

[KeonClark]

You can always count on the Kings or the Knicks to do something stupid. 28 other GM's most love those two teams.

Knicks have been signing past prime, big name score first point guards since the 90s. And this year was a bit of a flop, they will be desperate to join the top 8 next year. I could see it

[jacobdr4]

I'm pretty torn about this cavs Celtics game tomorrow. On one hand fuck the Celtics. But also I wish people would shut up about Cleveland. I hope they both play like shit and Cleveland wins

[Ebonhawke]

Wizards may be in some point guard trouble as Tim Frazier suffered a nasal fracture, and Satoransky is in the concussion protocol after a flagrant two from Bobby Portis

[The Great One]

I think y'all should be cheering for the Celtics actually. Because if the Cavs beat them easily tomorrow - then that's trouble.

[tDotted]

The Cavs have plenty of time to lose games. Give me a Celtics loss please

[DanH]

I think y'all should be cheering for the Celtics actually. Because if the Cavs beat them easily tomorrow - then that's trouble.

If it’s Raps vs Cavs for 1st seed, Raps control their destiny far more than they can trying to stay ahead of Boston.

[Demographic Shift]

If it’s Raps vs Cavs for 1st seed, Raps control their destiny far more than they can trying to stay ahead of Boston.

I think y'all should be cheering for the Celtics actually. Because if the Cavs beat them easily tomorrow - then that's trouble.

Math is on the side of the Raps vs the new look Lebrons for 1st...

Raps 6 games up...and Cleveland has 28 to go...

So if the Lebrons played Warrior level ball at a win % of .750 they go 20 and 8...which lands them at 53 and 29..and it’s tough to see them doing that despite the chanting from ESPN that they are dramatically better.....just hard to see them playing warrior level ball.....

The Raps also have 28 to go and are playing at a .700 clip... which means even if they go 16 and 12 the rest of the way with a pretty good schedule to boot they still finish ahead of the New and Not So Improved Lebrons

Go Cavs today...

[Ebonhawke]

I'll be rooting for the Cavs to beat the Celtics - followed by high ankle sprains to multiple Cavs players during the celebratory dancing.

[Zainab]

The new-look Cavs make their debut on Sunday afternoon at the Garden. I dissected each of their deadline deals to try to figure out just how much they improved for postseason showdowns with #Celtics and/or Raptors: https://t.co/YV6o2kEYlu

— Brian Robb (@BrianTRobb) February 11, 2018